FA Cup · Round 3
Momentum
– MKDOXF –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
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Stats
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Season context
| Milton Keynes Dons | at home | Stat | league | away | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.7 #71 | – | Ball possession | 38.3 | – | 54.0 #49 |
| 9.3 #111 | – | Shots total | 8.8 | – | 14.5 #35 |
| 6.3 #30 | – | Shots on target | 3.5 | – | 4.5 #80 |
| 7.3 #19 | – | Corners | 4.0 | – | 5.0 #74 |
| 14.3 #19 | – | Fouls | 9.1 | – | 17.5 #5 |
| 1.3 #73 | – | Offsides | 1.8 | – | 2.0 #38 |
| 6.7 #69 | – | Tackles | 13.6 | – | 18.5 #19 |
| 79.7 #105 | – | Attacks | 71.7 | – | 115.0 #29 |
| 39.0 #112 | – | Dangerous attacks | 37.4 | – | 47.5 #64 |
| 137.0 #72 | – | Passes | 343.8 | – | 488.0 #25 |
| 2.0 #37 | – | Yellowcards | 1.8 | – | 1.0 #77 |
| 2.3 #4 | – | Assists | 1.2 | – | – |
| – #1 | – | Btts | 57.6 | – | – #374 |
| – #286 | – | Cleansheet | 16.3 | – | – #286 |
| – #125 | – | Draw | 14.3 | – | – #26 |
| 0.4 #59 | – | Expected goals | 1.3 | – | 1.4 #26 |
| 1.9 #10 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.6 | – | -0.9 #63 |
| – #370 | – | Failed to score | 28.2 | – | – #114 |
| 2.3 #100 | 2.0 | Goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 #597 |
| 1.3 #481 | 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 #538 |
| 0.3 #97 | – | Injury time goals | 0.5 | – | – |
| 2.3 #76 | – | Interceptions | 7.4 | – | 10.0 #22 |
| – #706 | – | Lost | 56.7 | – | – #253 |
| 6.6 #63 | – | Rating | 6.6 | – | 6.8 #27 |
| 3.3 #40 | – | Shots blocked | 3.0 | – | 5.0 #18 |
| 3.3 #63 | – | Shots insidebox | 7.1 | – | 8.5 #29 |
| 4.7 #105 | – | Shots off target | 4.5 | – | 5.0 #87 |
| 0.7 #79 | – | Shots outsidebox | 3.5 | – | 6.0 #13 |
| – #47 | – | Win | 29.1 | – | – #409 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 243.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 868 of 871
- Goals / match
- 3.3 (home 1.83 · away 1.47)
- Home / draw / away
- 47% · 18% · 35%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 57% · 64%
- Cards / match
- 0.65 (reds 0.05)
Trends
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Lineups
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Bench
Absences
Oxford United
- injury James Golding defender · Calf Injury · 7 missed · until 2026-01-02
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
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Competition
- Stage
- Round 3
Venue
- Stadium
- Stadium mk, Milton Keynes
- Capacity
- 30,500
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 5,902
Teams
- Coaches
- Paul Warne · C. Short
- Position
- 1 · 2
- Formation
- 3-1-4-2 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Paul Howard
Weather
- Conditions
- overcast clouds
- Temperature
- 2.7° (feels 0.0°)
- Wind
- 2.7
- Humidity
- 55%
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No table for this competition stage.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Milton Keynes Dons
WW 2W 0D 0L · 6 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 3
- W
H
Oldham Athletic
3–1
UK FA Cup - W
A
Colchester United
3–2
UK FA Cup
WW 2W 0D 0L · 6 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 3
- W
H
Oldham Athletic
3–1
UK FA Cup
- W
A
Colchester United
3–2
UK FA Cup
Oxford United
LLWLL 1W 0D 4L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 4 GA 7 · xG 5.01–6.38 · xPts 5.81
- L
A
Ipswich Town
1–2
xG 0.9–1.84
UK CHAMP - L
H
Swansea City
0–1
xG 0.53–0.81
UK CHAMP - W
H
Southampton
2–1
xG 1.43–1.72
UK CHAMP - L
A
Charlton Athletic
0–1
xG 0.79–1.16
UK CHAMP - L
H
Preston North End
1–2
xG 1.37–0.85
UK CHAMP
DDWLDLLWLL 2W 3D 5L · 9 pts (0.9 ppg) · GF 9 GA 13 · xG 9.77–13.93 · xPts 10.91
- L
A
Ipswich Town
1–2
xG 0.9–1.84
UK CHAMP
- L
H
Swansea City
0–1
xG 0.53–0.81
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Southampton
2–1
xG 1.43–1.72
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Charlton Athletic
0–1
xG 0.79–1.16
UK CHAMP
- L
H
Preston North End
1–2
xG 1.37–0.85
UK CHAMP
- D
A
Blackburn Rovers
1–1
xG 0.32–2.28
UK CHAMP - L
A
Swansea City
0–2
xG 1.63–1.08
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Ipswich Town
2–1
xG 1.13–1.76
UK CHAMP
- D
A
Norwich City
1–1
xG 0.93–1.53
UK CHAMP - D
H
Middlesbrough
1–1
xG 0.74–0.91
UK CHAMP
All meetings · 1 match since 2026
Goals 1–1 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 0%
Last 10 · 1 match
Goals 1–1 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 0%
Last 5 · 1 match
Goals 1–1 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 0%
Recent meetings
- D Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Oxford United pens None–None UK FA Cup · Round 3
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons all · 3 | Milton Keynes Dons at home · 2 | Oxford United all · 2 | Oxford United away · 1 |
|---|
Milton Keynes Dons
Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 5
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5-2 | 1 33% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | – | – |
| 3-5-1-1 | 1 33% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | – | – |
| 3-1-4-2 | 1 33% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.31 | 1.45 |
Oxford United
Current: winless 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 2 100% | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.32 | 2.05 |
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons all · 5 | Milton Keynes Dons at home · 3 | Oxford United all · 10 | Oxford United away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 5 | – | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | – | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| W / D / L | 2 / 1 / 2 | – | 3 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Goals for / match | 1.80 | – | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| Goals against / match | 1.80 | – | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | – | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 20% | – | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | – | 40% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | – | 20% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 2.31 | – | 1.50 | 1.08 |
| xG against / match | 1.45 | – | 1.38 | 1.58 |
| xG difference | 0.86 | – | 0.12 | -0.50 |
| Finishing vs xG | -1.31 | – | -0.40 | -0.18 |
| xPts / match | 1.90 | – | 1.44 | 1.08 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.90 | – | -0.24 | -0.18 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 40% | – | 40% | 30% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.00 | – | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.00 | – | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | – | 33% | 17% |
| Leads held | 67% | – | 60% | 50% |
| Minutes leading | 14% | – | 28% | 18% |
| Minutes level | 59% | – | 38% | 47% |
| Minutes trailing | 27% | – | 34% | 35% |
| First goal (min) | 38 | – | 29 | 23 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | – | 35 | 30 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 56% | – | 54% | 56% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 67% | – | 36% | 43% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.60 | – | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | – | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 51% | – | 38% | 33% |
| Shots | 8.4 | – | 12.7 | 9.0 |
| On target | 5.0 | – | 3.8 | 2.1 |
| Shot conversion | 21% | – | 9% | 10% |
| Shots inside box | 92% | – | 61% | 59% |
| Big chances created | 5.0 | – | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Corners | 5.8 | – | 4.7 | 3.6 |
| xG from set plays | 42% | – | 49% | 40% |
| Goals from headers | 0% | – | 9% | 11% |
| Pressure index | 13.5 | – | 9.0 | 3.9 |
| Dominant minutes | 51.6 | – | 45.9 | 24.4 |
| Pass accuracy | 36% | – | 70% | 67% |
| Fouls | 14.6 | – | 10.9 | 11.0 |
| Cards | 3.00 | – | 1.50 | 2.80 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Milton Keynes Dons
0–15'01
16–30'01
31–45'41
46–60'23
61–75'02
76–90'31
Oxford United
0–15'24
16–30'21
31–45'12
46–60'21
61–75'21
76–90'22
Milton Keynes Dons
Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 5
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-3 | 2 40% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | – | – |
| 3-5-1-1 | 1 20% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | – | – |
| 3-1-4-2 | 1 20% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.31 | 1.45 |
| 3-5-2 | 1 20% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | – | – |
Oxford United
Current: winless 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 9 90% | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.0 | 1.59 | 1.27 |
| 5-4-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.68 | 2.29 |
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons all · 3 | Milton Keynes Dons at home · 2 | Oxford United all · 43 | Oxford United away · 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | – | – | 43 | 22 |
| Points per game | – | – | 1.07 | 0.86 |
| W / D / L | – | – | 11 / 13 / 19 | 4 / 7 / 11 |
| Goals for / match | – | – | 0.93 | 0.91 |
| Goals against / match | – | – | 1.21 | 1.32 |
| Clean sheets | – | – | 19% | 14% |
| Failed to score | – | – | 42% | 41% |
| Both teams scored | – | – | 51% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 | – | – | 42% | 46% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | – | – | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| xG against / match | – | – | 1.44 | 1.69 |
| xG difference | – | – | -0.27 | -0.65 |
| Finishing vs xG | – | – | -0.24 | -0.12 |
| xPts / match | – | – | 1.21 | 0.98 |
| Points vs xPts | – | – | -0.14 | -0.12 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | – | – | 40% | 36% |
| PPG when scoring first | – | – | 2.12 | 1.63 |
| PPG when conceding first | – | – | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Came back from behind | – | – | 21% | 21% |
| Leads held | – | – | 61% | 44% |
| Minutes leading | – | – | 22% | 19% |
| Minutes level | – | – | 46% | 48% |
| Minutes trailing | – | – | 32% | 33% |
| First goal (min) | – | – | 30 | 32 |
| First goal conceded (min) | – | – | 37 | 39 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | – | – | 42% | 45% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | – | – | 42% | 41% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | – | – | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| Late goals against | – | – | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | – | – | 40% | 39% |
| Shots | – | – | 11.9 | 10.3 |
| On target | – | – | 3.5 | 2.7 |
| Shot conversion | – | – | 8% | 9% |
| Shots inside box | – | – | 54% | 54% |
| Big chances created | – | – | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Corners | – | – | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| xG from set plays | – | – | 41% | 33% |
| Goals from headers | – | – | 15% | 20% |
| Pressure index | – | – | 7.0 | 5.0 |
| Dominant minutes | – | – | 35.3 | 26.6 |
| Pass accuracy | – | – | 70% | 71% |
| Fouls | – | – | 10.9 | 11.2 |
| Cards | – | – | 1.74 | 2.09 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Oxford United
0–15'810
16–30'87
31–45'713
46–60'610
61–75'46
76–90'76
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Milton Keynes Dons · 3 matches
Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.51) · stands out: when ahead +0.75
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.513
Early press (0-15, level)+0.363
Late push (76+, level)+0.162
Game state
When ahead+0.753
When level+0.453
10 min after conceding+0.293
10 min after scoring+0.543
Situations
At home+0.752
4+ days rest+0.513
Opposition
Evenly matched+0.212
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.173
Conceded when ahead-0.163
Conceded late (76+)-0.403
Ahead vs level +0.30 · Behind vs level -0.33
Oxford United · 43 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.27) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.40
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.2743
Early press (0-15, level)-0.0743
Late push (76+, level)-0.4015
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.3719
Game state
When ahead-0.2718
When level-0.2343
When behind-0.3224
10 min after conceding-0.3935
10 min after scoring-0.1225
Situations
Against ten men-0.542
At home-0.2021
Away-0.3322
3 days rest or fewer-0.3515
4+ days rest-0.2328
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents-0.3524
v bottom-tier opponents-0.1915
As favourite+0.002
Evenly matched-0.1415
As underdog-0.3526
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.3843
Conceded when ahead+0.1118
Conceded late (76+)+0.1640
Congested vs rested -0.12 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level -0.09
Milton Keynes Dons
Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 5
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-1-4-2 | 1 33% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.31 | 1.45 |
| 3-5-1-1 | 1 33% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | – | – |
| 3-5-2 | 1 33% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | – | – |
Oxford United
Current: winless 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 28 65% | 1.07 | 0.93 | 1.18 | 1.29 | 1.42 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 9% | 1.0 | 0.75 | 1.5 | 0.78 | 1.22 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 9% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.23 | 1.77 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 3 7% | 1.33 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.88 | 1.11 |
| 5-4-1 | 2 5% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.94 | 1.97 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
3.0Home 31% P 31%3.4Draw 28% P 27%2.3Away 41% P 41%
Double Chance
1.57Milton Keynes Dons or Draw 30% P 29%1.3Milton Keynes Dons or Oxford Utd 36% P 36%1.36Draw or Oxford Utd 34% P 34%
Draw No Bet
2.11 44%1.662 56%
Both Teams To Score
1.75Yes 53% P 54%2.0No 47% P 46%
Goals Over/Under
2.52.0Over 47% P 49%1.8Under 53% P 51%
Total Corners
11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 40–42.5% · 560 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 31% | 31% | 31% | -0.2 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 24% | -4.2 |
| Away | 41% | 41% | 46% | +4.4 |
In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 54%
Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54% | 54% | 54% | -0.2 |
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 49% | 50% | +1.3 |
Paul Howard
- Career
- 11 matches · 8 seasons
- Cards / match
- 2.18 (2.18 yellow · 0.0 red)
- Fouls / match
- 22.0 · 5.5 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.36
- Cards to home side
- 54%
Style in FA Cup (5-year window · 8 matches)
Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 2.5 cards, 23.4 fouls per match.
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 90' | 5 |