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FA Cup · Round 3

Momentum

NEWBOU
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Round 3

Venue

Stadium
St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
Capacity
52,409
Surface
grass
Attendance
51,563

Teams

Coaches
Eddie Howe · Andoni Iraola
Position
1 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Thomas Bramall

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
0.1° (feels 0.1°)
Wind
1.0
Humidity
93%

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No table for this competition stage.

Newcastle United

DLWWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 11 GA 7 · xG 12.01–6.32 · xPts 10.18

  • W H Leeds United 4–3 xG 2.81–2.04 UK PL
  • W H Crystal Palace 2–0 xG 2.09–1.14 UK PL
  • W A Burnley 3–1 xG 3.33–1.05 UK PL
  • L A Manchester United 0–1 xG 1.61–0.98 UK PL
  • D H Chelsea 2–2 xG 2.16–1.11 UK PL

AFC Bournemouth

DLDLW 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 12 · xG 9.9–7.86 · xPts 8.27

  • W H Tottenham Hotspur 3–2 xG 1.31–1.2 UK PL
  • L H Arsenal 2–3 xG 1.02–1.08 UK PL
  • D A Chelsea 2–2 xG 2.73–2.73 UK PL
  • L A Brentford 1–4 xG 3.13–2.57 UK PL
  • D H Burnley 1–1 xG 1.71–0.27 UK PL

All meetings · 18 matches since 2015

Newcastle United 49 draws5 AFC Bournemouth

Goals 26–29 · 3.06 per match · BTTS 78% · over 2.5 61%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Newcastle United 07 draws3 AFC Bournemouth

Goals 12–18 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Newcastle United 03 draws2 AFC Bournemouth

Goals 7–11 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • D Newcastle United 2–2 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Newcastle United 1–2 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Newcastle United 3–3 AFC Bournemouth pens None–None UK FA Cup · Round 3
  • D AFC Bournemouth 0–0 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Newcastle United 1–4 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
  • D AFC Bournemouth 1–1 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Newcastle United 2–2 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
  • L AFC Bournemouth 2–0 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
  • D AFC Bournemouth 1–1 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Newcastle United 1–1 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
MetricNewcastle United all · 3Newcastle United at home · 2AFC Bournemouth all · 1AFC Bournemouth away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Newcastle United · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.19) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.28

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.194
Early press (0-15, level)+0.074
Late push (76+, level)-0.142

Game state

When ahead-0.342
When level-0.014
When behind-0.222
10 min after conceding-0.283
10 min after scoring-0.063

Situations

At home-0.372
Away+0.062
4+ days rest-0.194

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.372
Evenly matched+0.062

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.442
Conceded late (76+)-0.133

Ahead vs level -0.33 · Behind vs level -0.21

AFC Bournemouth · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.00) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.23

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.005
Early press (0-15, level)+0.215
Late push (76+, level)-0.044

Game state

When ahead+0.025
When level+0.015
When behind-0.682
10 min after conceding-0.235
10 min after scoring+0.225

Situations

At home+0.042
Away-0.033
4+ days rest-0.005

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.143
As favourite+0.112
As underdog-0.172

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead-0.145
Conceded late (76+)-0.205

Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level -0.69

Newcastle United

Current: winless 2 · scoring 4 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 100%1.332.332.332.012.2

AFC Bournemouth

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 13 · conceding 7

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-11 100%1.03.03.02.343.74

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.6Home 59% P 61%4.75Draw 20% P 21%4.5Away 21% P 18%

Double Chance

1.22Newcastle or Draw 39% P 41%1.22Newcastle or Bournemouth 39% P 40%2.1Draw or Bournemouth 23% P 20%

Draw No Bet

1.31 72%3.42 28%

Both Teams To Score

1.5Yes 62% P 65%2.5No 38% P 35%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.4Over 68% P 68%3.0Under 32% P 32%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 33%3.512 - 14 25%6.0Over 14 14%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%
4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 60–62.5% · away 17.5–20% · 138 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home61%61%65%+4.3
Draw21%21%18%-2.8
Away18%18%17%-1.5

In those fixtures: 3.5 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 70%

Both teams to score · yes 62.5–65% · 687 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes65%64%64%+0.4

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.568%69%69%+0.6

Thomas Bramall

Career
131 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
3.73 (3.6 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
21.7 · 5.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.26
Cards to home side
47%

Style in FA Cup (5-year window · 11 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match2.643.73-1.096
Fouls / match20.119.7-0.21
Fouls per card7.65.5+1.13 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.550.24+1.4994
Time added7.47.2+0.2956
First card
48' on average
Card timing
7% in first 30' · 38% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)
VAR events / match
1.67

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-07 70 221 29'9
2025-12-30 20 210 63'6
2025-12-20 40 151 42'11
2025-12-13 10 240 76'7
2025-12-02 · Newcastle United 30 171 23'10
2025-11-22 · AFC Bournemouth 50 191 34'9
2025-11-03 50 220 17'8
2025-10-26 17 8
2025-10-18 20 120 87'5
2025-10-04 50 220 22'10