Momentum
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
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Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Aston Villa | at home | Stat | league | away | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.5 #65 | – | Ball possession | 38.3 | – | 52.3 #61 |
| 12.5 #58 | – | Shots total | 8.8 | – | 15.3 #28 |
| 5.0 #63 | – | Shots on target | 3.5 | – | 4.7 #77 |
| 6.0 #41 | – | Corners | 4.0 | – | 5.0 #74 |
| 10.5 #56 | – | Fouls | 9.1 | – | 9.7 #68 |
| 1.0 #77 | – | Offsides | 1.8 | – | 2.3 #34 |
| 22.0 #11 | – | Tackles | 13.6 | – | 17.7 #23 |
| 76.5 #113 | – | Attacks | 71.7 | – | 105.7 #42 |
| 38.5 #114 | – | Dangerous attacks | 37.4 | – | 52.0 #54 |
| 441.5 #31 | – | Passes | 343.8 | – | 489.0 #24 |
| 2.0 #37 | – | Yellowcards | 1.8 | – | 2.3 #32 |
| 0.5 #7 | – | Redcards | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1.5 #27 | – | Assists | 1.2 | – | 1.3 #30 |
| – #1 | – | Btts | 57.6 | – | – #1 |
| – #286 | – | Cleansheet | 16.3 | – | – #286 |
| – #256 | – | Draw | 14.3 | – | – #125 |
| 1.8 #18 | – | Expected goals | 1.3 | – | 2.0 #14 |
| -0.3 #54 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.6 | – | 0.3 #42 |
| – #370 | – | Failed to score | 28.2 | – | – #370 |
| 1.5 #305 | 1.0 | Goals | 1.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 #100 |
| 2.0 #205 | 3.0 | Goals conceded | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.3 #191 |
| 0.5 #48 | – | Injury time goals | 0.5 | – | 0.3 #97 |
| 7.5 #38 | – | Interceptions | 7.4 | – | 8.7 #31 |
| – #253 | – | Lost | 56.7 | – | – #458 |
| – | – | Penalties scored | 0.4 | – | 0.3 #22 |
| 6.7 #53 | – | Rating | 6.6 | – | 6.8 #24 |
| 4.0 #26 | – | Shots blocked | 3.0 | – | 2.7 #54 |
| 7.0 #38 | – | Shots insidebox | 7.1 | – | 10.3 #21 |
| 3.5 #144 | – | Shots off target | 4.5 | – | 8.0 #16 |
| 5.5 #18 | – | Shots outsidebox | 3.5 | – | 5.0 #22 |
| – #141 | – | Win | 29.1 | – | – #336 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 243.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 868 of 871
- Goals / match
- 3.3 (home 1.83 · away 1.47)
- Home / draw / away
- 47% · 18% · 35%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 57% · 64%
- Cards / match
- 0.65 (reds 0.05)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Aston Villa · Last 365 days
Newcastle United · Last 365 days
Absences
Aston Villa
- injury Alysson #17 key player attacker · Knee Problems · 11 missed · until 2026-02-09
Newcastle United
- injury Lewis Miley #4 key player midfielder · Dead Leg · 13 missed · until 2026-04-05
- injury Sven Botman #8 key player defender · Knee Surgery · 79 missed
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Round 4
Venue
- Stadium
- Villa Park, Birmingham
- Capacity
- 42,640
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 42,101
Teams
- Coaches
- Unai Emery · Eddie Howe
- Position
- 1 · 2
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Chris Kavanagh
Weather
- Conditions
- overcast clouds
- Temperature
- 2.2° (feels -1.5°)
- Wind
- 3.9
- Humidity
- 83%
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No table for this competition stage.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Aston Villa
WWLDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 4 · xG 7.39–6.15 · xPts 7.47
- W
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
1–0
xG 0.93–0.57
UK PL - D
A
AFC Bournemouth
1–1
xG 0.65–1.84
UK PL - L
H
Brentford
0–1
xG 2.78–0.42
UK PL - W
H
Salzburg
3–2
xG 1.87–1.75
UEFA EL - W
A
Newcastle United
2–0
xG 1.16–1.57
UK PL
WDWLWWWLDW 6W 2D 2L · 20 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 13 GA 7 · xG 14.52–10.29 · xPts 16.53
- W
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
1–0
xG 0.93–0.57
UK PL - D
A
AFC Bournemouth
1–1
xG 0.65–1.84
UK PL - L
H
Brentford
0–1
xG 2.78–0.42
UK PL - W
H
Salzburg
3–2
xG 1.87–1.75
UEFA EL - W
A
Newcastle United
2–0
xG 1.16–1.57
UK PL - W
A
Fenerbahçe
1–0
xG 1.38–0.65
UEFA EL - L
H
Everton
0–1
xG 1.35–0.64
UK PL - W
A
Tottenham Hotspur
2–1
xG 1.44–0.84
UK FA Cup - D
A
Crystal Palace
0–0
xG 1.59–1.39
UK PL - W
H
Nottingham Forest
3–1
xG 1.37–0.62
UK PL
Newcastle United
LDLLW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 11 · xG 8.9–9.97 · xPts 6.36
- W
A
Tottenham Hotspur
2–1
xG 2.83–1.92
UK PL - L
H
Brentford
2–3
xG 2.91–1.87
UK PL - L
A
Liverpool
1–4
xG 0.43–1.93
UK PL - D
A
Paris Saint Germain
1–1
xG 1.16–3.09
UEFA CL - L
H
Aston Villa
0–2
xG 1.57–1.16
UK PL
WWDDWLDLLW 4W 3D 3L · 15 pts (1.5 ppg) · GF 18 GA 17 · xG 20.15–16.3 · xPts 16.36
- W
A
Tottenham Hotspur
2–1
xG 2.83–1.92
UK PL - L
H
Brentford
2–3
xG 2.91–1.87
UK PL - L
A
Liverpool
1–4
xG 0.43–1.93
UK PL - D
A
Paris Saint Germain
1–1
xG 1.16–3.09
UEFA CL - L
H
Aston Villa
0–2
xG 1.57–1.16
UK PL - W
H
PSV
3–0
xG 1.46–0.4
UEFA CL - D
A
Wolverhampton Wanderers
0–0
xG 1.16–0.41
UK PL - D
H
AFC Bournemouth
3–3 won on pens None–None
xG 3.74–2.34
UK FA Cup - W
H
Leeds United
4–3
xG 2.81–2.04
UK PL - W
H
Crystal Palace
2–0
xG 2.09–1.14
UK PL
All meetings · 47 matches since 2000
Goals 49–64 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 38%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 12–20 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 70%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 7–7 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%
Recent meetings
- L Aston Villa 1–3 Newcastle United UK FA Cup · Round 4
- W Newcastle United 0–2 Aston Villa UK PL · Regular Season
- D Aston Villa 0–0 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
- W Aston Villa 4–1 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
- L Newcastle United 3–0 Aston Villa UK PL · Regular Season
- L Aston Villa 1–3 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
- L Newcastle United 5–1 Aston Villa UK PL · Regular Season
- W Aston Villa 3–0 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
- L Newcastle United 4–0 Aston Villa UK PL · Regular Season
- L Newcastle United 1–0 Aston Villa UK PL · Regular Season
| Metric | Aston Villa all · 2 | Aston Villa at home · 1 | Newcastle United all · 3 | Newcastle United away · 1 |
|---|
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Aston Villa · 5 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.10) · stands out: when behind -0.62
Tempo
Game state
Situations
Opposition
Conceded
Congested vs rested +0.11 · Ahead vs level -0.22 · Behind vs level -0.74
Newcastle United · 4 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.19) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.28
Tempo
Game state
Situations
Opposition
Conceded
Ahead vs level -0.33 · Behind vs level -0.21
Aston Villa
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 2 100% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.26 | 0.99 |
Newcastle United
Current: winless 2 · scoring 4 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 3 100% | 1.33 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 2.01 | 2.2 |
| Metric | Aston Villa all · 10 | Aston Villa at home · 10 | Newcastle United all · 10 | Newcastle United away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| W / D / L | 4 / 2 / 4 | 6 / 0 / 4 | 3 / 3 / 4 | 3 / 1 / 6 |
| Goals for / match | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | 10% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.41 | 1.65 | 1.20 | 1.28 |
| xG against / match | 1.49 | 1.30 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
| xG difference | -0.07 | 0.35 | -0.65 | -0.55 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.25 | 0.65 | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| xPts / match | 1.40 | 1.57 | 1.01 | 0.99 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.01 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 30% | 70% | 50% | 50% |
| PPG when scoring first | 3.00 | 2.57 | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| Leads held | 80% | 86% | 60% | 60% |
| Minutes leading | 22% | 41% | 31% | 26% |
| Minutes level | 50% | 38% | 33% | 35% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 20% | 37% | 38% |
| First goal (min) | 43 | 37 | 45 | 41 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 29 | 36 | 42 | 38 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 50% | 61% | 60% | 33% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 50% | 64% | 50% | 50% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 47% | 48% | 49% | 49% |
| Shots | 13.0 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 11.1 |
| On target | 4.6 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 5.2 |
| Shot conversion | 12% | 19% | 13% | 14% |
| Shots inside box | 68% | 64% | 62% | 62% |
| Big chances created | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Corners | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| xG from set plays | 31% | 33% | 27% | 34% |
| Goals from headers | 12% | 17% | 13% | 7% |
| Pressure index | 11.8 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| Dominant minutes | 45.9 | 47.5 | 45.6 | 46.1 |
| Pass accuracy | 84% | 84% | 81% | 83% |
| Fouls | 10.7 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 10.7 |
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.10 | 2.20 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Aston Villa
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 10 100% | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.41 | 1.49 |
Newcastle United
Current: winless 2 · scoring 4 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 7 70% | 1.71 | 2.0 | 1.57 | 1.27 | 1.81 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.91 | 3.25 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.82 | 0.83 |
| 3-5-2 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.39 | 1.73 |
| Metric | Aston Villa all · 57 | Aston Villa at home · 27 | Newcastle United all · 53 | Newcastle United away · 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 57 | 27 | 53 | 26 |
| Points per game | 1.91 | 2.15 | 1.40 | 1.12 |
| W / D / L | 34 / 7 / 16 | 19 / 1 / 7 | 21 / 11 / 21 | 8 / 5 / 13 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.19 | 1.04 | 1.60 | 1.65 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 37% | 19% | 19% |
| Failed to score | 18% | 11% | 13% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 52% | 72% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 59% | 72% | 62% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.46 | 1.64 | 1.67 | 1.41 |
| xG against / match | 1.25 | 1.10 | 1.63 | 1.59 |
| xG difference | 0.21 | 0.54 | 0.04 | -0.18 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| xPts / match | 1.51 | 1.71 | 1.39 | 1.24 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.00 | -0.12 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 56% | 70% | 64% | 50% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.53 | 2.68 | 1.85 | 1.69 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.13 | 0.88 | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| Came back from behind | 38% | 30% | 22% | 19% |
| Leads held | 83% | 90% | 57% | 53% |
| Minutes leading | 32% | 40% | 33% | 28% |
| Minutes level | 48% | 43% | 42% | 39% |
| Minutes trailing | 20% | 17% | 25% | 33% |
| First goal (min) | 40 | 40 | 36 | 35 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 46 | 45 | 37 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 56% | 58% | 49% | 41% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 56% | 64% | 62% | 54% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.39 | 0.52 | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| Late goals against | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 52% | 53% | 51% | 51% |
| Shots | 12.7 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 12.0 |
| On target | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| Shot conversion | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% |
| Shots inside box | 65% | 65% | 68% | 68% |
| Big chances created | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Corners | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.1 |
| xG from set plays | 29% | 31% | 43% | 39% |
| Goals from headers | 17% | 15% | 16% | 13% |
| Pressure index | 15.0 | 15.7 | 15.0 | 13.0 |
| Dominant minutes | 52.0 | 55.5 | 52.9 | 49.6 |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 85% | 82% | 83% |
| Fouls | 10.6 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 9.3 |
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.91 | 2.08 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Aston Villa
Newcastle United
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Aston Villa · 57 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.19) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.48
Tempo
Game state
Situations
Opposition
Conceded
Congested vs rested -0.15 · Ahead vs level +0.02 · Behind vs level -0.22
Newcastle United · 53 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.14) · stands out: v mid-tier opponents +0.50
Tempo
Game state
Situations
Opposition
Conceded
Congested vs rested +0.14 · Ahead vs level -0.12 · Behind vs level -0.14
Aston Villa
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 53 93% | 1.83 | 1.6 | 1.23 | 1.45 | 1.22 |
| 4-4-2 | 3 5% | 3.0 | 2.67 | 0.67 | 1.66 | 2.08 |
| 4-2-2-2 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.37 | 0.4 |
Newcastle United
Current: winless 2 · scoring 4 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 33 62% | 1.42 | 1.76 | 1.64 | 1.81 | 1.51 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 14 26% | 1.57 | 2.21 | 1.71 | 1.62 | 1.9 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 3 6% | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.0 | 0.99 | 1.82 |
| 3-5-2 | 1 2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.39 | 1.73 |
| 4-5-1 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.87 | 1.94 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line -1.4h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
Double Chance
Draw No Bet
Both Teams To Score
Goals Over/Under
Total Corners
Number of Cards
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 37.5–40% · 153 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 36% | 36% | 35% | -1.3 |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 30% | +4.3 |
| Away | 38% | 38% | 35% | -3.0 |
In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 61% · over 2.5 53%
Both teams to score · yes 62.5–65% · 687 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 64% | 64% | 64% | +0.4 |
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 61% | 63% | +1.5 |
Chris Kavanagh
- Career
- 340 matches · 16 seasons
- Cards / match
- 3.95 (3.82 yellow · 0.09 red)
- Fouls / match
- 20.9 · 5.0 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.21
- Cards to home side
- 45%
Style in FA Cup (5-year window · 8 matches)
Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 2.88 cards, 19.2 fouls per match.
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 24' | 8 |
| 2026-01-31 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 53' | 7 |
| 2026-01-21 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 87' | 5 |
| 2026-01-17 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 27' | 5 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 5' | 10 |
| 2026-01-03 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 26' | 8 |
| 2026-01-01 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 61' | 8 |
| 2025-12-27 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 44' | 5 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 38' | 7 |
| 2025-12-06 | 7 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 1' | 6 |
