Hull City v Chelsea · KickoffDNA

FA Cup · Round 4

Hull CityHull City

0–4

ChelseaChelsea

Momentum

– Hull CityChelsea –

now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Stats

Loading statistics…

Season context

Hull City	at home	Stat	league	away	Chelsea
40.0 #122	–	Ball possession	38.3	–	65.3 #9
14.5 #35	–	Shots total	8.8	–	16.5 #19
2.5 #142	–	Shots on target	3.5	–	7.5 #11
8.5 #10	–	Corners	4.0	–	5.3 #72
10.5 #56	–	Fouls	9.1	–	10.3 #60
3.0 #14	–	Offsides	1.8	–	1.8 #60
29.0 #2	–	Tackles	13.6	–	14.2 #40
92.0 #77	–	Attacks	71.7	–	118.3 #24
40.5 #102	–	Dangerous attacks	37.4	–	46.3 #71
396.5 #37	–	Passes	343.8	–	699.2 #3
3.0 #15	–	Yellowcards	1.8	–	2.0 #37
–	–	Assists	1.2	–	2.0 #9
– #585	–	Btts	57.6	–	– #531
– #36	–	Cleansheet	16.3	–	– #36
– #26	–	Draw	14.3	–	– #256
1.4 #27	–	Expected goals	1.3	–	2.4 #9
-1.4 #65	–	Expected goals difference	0.6	–	1.1 #24
– #1	–	Failed to score	28.2	–	– #360
0.0 #632	0.0	Goals	1.4	4.3	3.5 #8
2.0 #205	2.0	Goals conceded	2.0	1.0	0.7 #689
–	–	Injury time goals	0.5	–	0.5 #48
15.0 #5	–	Interceptions	7.4	–	7.0 #41
– #253	–	Lost	56.7	–	– #686
–	–	Penalties scored	0.4	–	0.3 #22
6.7 #42	–	Rating	6.6	–	7.1 #1
4.5 #25	–	Shots blocked	3.0	–	3.5 #37
9.0 #25	–	Shots insidebox	7.1	–	11.2 #15
7.5 #24	–	Shots off target	4.5	–	5.5 #78
5.5 #18	–	Shots outsidebox	3.5	–	5.3 #21
– #409	–	Win	29.1	–	– #8

Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 243.

League this season · 2025/2026

Played: 868 of 871
Goals / match: 3.3 (home 1.83 · away 1.47)
Home / draw / away: 47% · 18% · 35%
BTTS · over 2.5: 57% · 64%
Cards / match: 0.65 (reds 0.05)

Lineups

Waiting for lineups…

Bench

Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Hull City · Last 365 days

Oli McBurnie 9 · Centre Forward

Injury · Calf Injury

Rating 7.08 (94th pct) · G+A 16 + 6 (31% of team goals) · 72% of minutes

Team 1.72 ppg with (36) · 1.57 without (14)

Joe Gelhardt Centre Forward

On the bench

Rating 6.96 (74th pct) · G+A 13 + 4 (24% of team goals) · 58% of minutes

Team 1.53 ppg with (32) · 1.94 without (18)

Regan Slater 27 · Defensive Midfield

Starts

Rating 6.84 (41th pct) · G+A 2 + 3 (7% of team goals) · 82% of minutes

Team 1.88 ppg with (40) · 0.9 without (10)

All key players

Chelsea · 2025/2026 · FA Cup

Pedro Neto 7 · Right Wing

Starts

Rating 7.71 (85th pct) · G+A 5 + 3 (38% of team goals) · 64% of minutes

Jorrel Hato 21 · Left Back

Starts

Rating 7.2 (54th pct) · G+A 3 + 0 (14% of team goals) · 74% of minutes

Estêvão 41 · Right Wing

Starts

Rating 7.73 · G+A 2 + 1 (14% of team goals) · 34% of minutes

All key players

Absences

Hull City

injury Oli McBurnie #1 key player attacker · Calf Injury · 8 missed · until 2025-12-01

Chelsea

injury Caleb Wiley defender · Adductor Injury · 50 missed
suspension Mykhaylo Mudryk attacker · Suspension Through Sports Court · 101 missed · until 2026-07-31

Competition

Stage: Round 4

Venue

Stadium: MKM Stadium, Hull
Capacity: 25,586
Surface: grass
Attendance: 24,320

Teams

Coaches: Sergej Jakirović · Liam Rosenior
Position: 1 · 2
Formation: 3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Farai Hallam

Weather

Conditions: broken clouds
Temperature: 2.2° (feels -2.2°)
Wind: 5.1
Humidity: 92%

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No table for this competition stage.

Hull City

WWWDL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 4 · xG 7.33–6.62 · xPts 7.2

L H Bristol City 2–3 xG 1.32–1.41 UK CHAMP
D H Watford 0–0 xG 0.34–1.39 UK CHAMP
W A Blackburn Rovers 1–0 xG 1.32–0.87 UK CHAMP
W H Swansea City 2–1 xG 2.36–1.91 UK CHAMP
W A Preston North End 3–0 xG 1.99–1.04 UK CHAMP

Chelsea

WWWWD 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 14 GA 8 · xG 13.86–6.68 · xPts 10.78

D H Leeds United 2–2 xG 3.52–1.24 UK PL
W A Wolverhampton Wanderers 3–1 xG 2.88–1.18 UK PL
W H West Ham United 3–2 xG 3.18–1.3 UK PL
W A Napoli 3–2 xG 1.98–1.21 UEFA CL
W A Crystal Palace 3–1 xG 2.31–1.75 UK PL

All meetings · 14 matches since 2008

Hull City 03 draws11 Chelsea

Goals 7–31 · 2.71 per match · BTTS 36% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Hull City 01 draws9 Chelsea

Goals 5–25 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Hull City 01 draws4 Chelsea

Goals 3–14 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

D Chelsea 2–2 Hull City UK PL · Regular Season
L Hull City 0–4 Chelsea UK FA Cup · Round 4
L Hull City 1–2 Chelsea UK FA Cup · 4th Round
L Chelsea 4–0 Hull City UK FA Cup · 5th Round
L Chelsea 2–0 Hull City UK PL · Regular Season
L Hull City 0–2 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
L Hull City 2–3 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
L Chelsea 2–0 Hull City UK PL · Regular Season
L Hull City 0–2 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
L Chelsea 2–0 Hull City UK PL · Regular Season

Metric	Hull City all · 2	Hull City at home · 2	Chelsea all · 6	Chelsea away · 3
Results
Matches	–	–	6	–
Points per game	–	–	2.50	–
W / D / L	–	–	5 / 0 / 1	–
Goals for / match	–	–	3.50	–
Goals against / match	–	–	0.67	–
Clean sheets	–	–	50%	–
Failed to score	–	–	17%	–
Both teams scored	–	–	33%	–
Over 2.5	–	–	67%	–
Expected goals
xG for / match	–	–	2.36	–
xG against / match	–	–	1.01	–
xG difference	–	–	1.35	–
Finishing vs xG	–	–	1.14	–
xPts / match	–	–	1.93	–
Points vs xPts	–	–	0.57	–
Game state
Scored first	–	–	67%	–
PPG when scoring first	–	–	3.00	–
PPG when conceding first	–	–	1.50	–
Came back from behind	–	–	50%	–
Leads held	–	–	100%	–
Minutes leading	–	–	48%	–
Minutes level	–	–	44%	–
Minutes trailing	–	–	8%	–
First goal (min)	–	–	30	–
First goal conceded (min)	–	–	49	–
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	–	–	63%	–
Goals conceded in 2nd half	–	–	75%	–
Late goals for (76'+)	–	–	1.17	–
Late goals against	–	–	0.17	–
Style
Possession	–	–	65%	–
Shots	–	–	16.5	–
On target	–	–	7.5	–
Shot conversion	–	–	21%	–
Shots inside box	–	–	68%	–
Big chances created	–	–	4.5	–
Corners	–	–	5.3	–
xG from set plays	–	–	32%	–
Goals from headers	–	–	20%	–
Pressure index	–	–	21.7	–
Dominant minutes	–	–	66.2	–
Pass accuracy	–	–	89%	–
Fouls	–	–	10.3	–
Cards	–	–	2.00	–

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Chelsea

0–15'10

16–30'21

31–45'40

46–60'41

61–75'31

76–90'51

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hull City · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.42) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.57

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.424

Early press (0-15, level)-0.574

Late push (76+, level)-0.503

Game state

When ahead-0.363

When level-0.444

10 min after scoring+0.133

Situations

At home-0.452

Away-0.392

4+ days rest-0.424

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.393

As underdog-0.424

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.364

Conceded when ahead+0.583

Conceded late (76+)+0.274

Ahead vs level +0.08 · Behind vs level -0.08

Chelsea · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.40

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.064

Early press (0-15, level)-0.214

Game state

When ahead+0.074

When level-0.074

When behind+0.172

10 min after conceding-0.404

10 min after scoring+0.324

Situations

At home-0.002

Away+0.122

4+ days rest+0.064

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.003

As favourite+0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.234

Conceded when ahead+0.354

Conceded late (76+)-0.274

Ahead vs level +0.14 · Behind vs level +0.24

Hull City

Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	1 50%	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.57	1.01
3-4-2-1	1 50%	0.0	0.0	4.0	1.07	2.19

Chelsea

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 6 · conceding 9

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	4 67%	3.0	4.25	0.25	2.82	0.76
3-4-2-1	2 33%	1.5	2.0	1.5	1.44	1.51

Metric	Hull City all · 10	Hull City at home · 10	Chelsea all · 10	Chelsea away · 10
Results
Matches	10	10	10	10
Points per game	1.90	1.90	1.40	1.00
W / D / L	5 / 4 / 1	5 / 4 / 1	4 / 2 / 4	3 / 1 / 6
Goals for / match	1.30	1.40	1.60	1.70
Goals against / match	0.70	0.80	1.70	2.30
Clean sheets	60%	50%	10%	0%
Failed to score	20%	30%	10%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	80%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	70%	90%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.22	1.28	1.30	1.23
xG against / match	1.35	1.21	1.42	1.49
xG difference	-0.13	0.07	-0.11	-0.26
Finishing vs xG	0.08	0.12	0.30	0.47
xPts / match	1.30	1.41	1.24	1.17
Points vs xPts	0.59	0.49	0.16	-0.17
Game state
Scored first	50%	40%	60%	20%
PPG when scoring first	2.60	2.50	2.17	1.50
PPG when conceding first	1.33	2.00	0.25	0.88
Came back from behind	75%	67%	33%	33%
Leads held	71%	83%	67%	75%
Minutes leading	22%	24%	38%	18%
Minutes level	69%	73%	32%	36%
Minutes trailing	9%	3%	30%	47%
First goal (min)	46	30	26	30
First goal conceded (min)	26	31	32	17
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	46%	36%	38%	40%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	57%	38%	47%	52%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30
Late goals against	0.00	0.20	0.10	0.50
Style
Possession	37%	41%	50%	53%
Shots	10.2	11.0	11.9	11.7
On target	3.9	3.8	4.2	4.3
Shot conversion	13%	13%	13%	14%
Shots inside box	65%	69%	61%	68%
Big chances created	2.3	2.1	2.1	2.5
Corners	3.9	2.6	4.8	5.0
xG from set plays	36%	38%	31%	22%
Goals from headers	15%	15%	7%	7%
Pressure index	7.7	8.5	11.8	10.1
Dominant minutes	37.0	44.5	47.5	46.5
Pass accuracy	68%	68%	83%	86%
Fouls	9.3	9.9	11.7	10.1
Cards	2.30	1.90	3.30	3.30

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hull City

0–15'01

16–30'42

31–45'30

46–60'02

61–75'32

76–90'30

Chelsea

0–15'53

16–30'24

31–45'32

46–60'24

61–75'33

76–90'11

Hull City

Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	4 40%	1.25	1.25	1.25	1.36	1.49
5-4-1	4 40%	2.0	1.25	0.5	0.9	1.44
3-4-2-1	2 20%	3.0	1.5	0.0	1.57	0.89

Chelsea

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 6 · conceding 9

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	5 50%	1.6	1.4	1.4	1.13	1.21
3-4-2-1	4 40%	1.5	2.0	2.0	1.64	1.58
3-4-1-2	1 10%	0.0	1.0	2.0	0.81	1.81

Metric	Hull City all · 50	Hull City at home · 27	Chelsea all · 53	Chelsea away · 26
Results
Matches	50	27	53	26
Points per game	1.68	1.63	1.55	1.46
W / D / L	24 / 12 / 14	12 / 8 / 7	24 / 10 / 19	11 / 5 / 10
Goals for / match	1.42	1.30	1.85	1.92
Goals against / match	1.22	1.22	1.45	1.62
Clean sheets	34%	37%	24%	19%
Failed to score	20%	30%	15%	12%
Both teams scored	56%	52%	62%	73%
Over 2.5	56%	48%	72%	81%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.31	1.41	1.85	1.66
xG against / match	1.61	1.43	1.32	1.45
xG difference	-0.30	-0.02	0.52	0.22
Finishing vs xG	0.11	-0.11	0.00	0.26
xPts / match	1.23	1.36	1.63	1.47
Points vs xPts	0.45	0.27	-0.08	0.00
Game state
Scored first	56%	44%	58%	46%
PPG when scoring first	2.29	2.42	2.19	2.33
PPG when conceding first	0.88	1.00	0.62	0.69
Came back from behind	36%	36%	34%	41%
Leads held	73%	80%	69%	79%
Minutes leading	31%	28%	34%	26%
Minutes level	54%	56%	40%	42%
Minutes trailing	15%	16%	26%	32%
First goal (min)	34	31	33	39
First goal conceded (min)	42	41	36	29
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	44%	40%	52%	58%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	56%	46%	52%	48%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.22	0.15	0.32	0.38
Late goals against	0.28	0.22	0.28	0.31
Style
Possession	43%	44%	57%	56%
Shots	10.8	11.2	13.9	12.8
On target	3.8	3.7	5.0	5.1
Shot conversion	13%	12%	13%	15%
Shots inside box	66%	68%	66%	69%
Big chances created	2.2	2.1	2.9	2.9
Corners	4.4	4.2	5.8	4.7
xG from set plays	23%	29%	29%	27%
Goals from headers	16%	12%	15%	11%
Pressure index	8.8	9.6	18.3	15.7
Dominant minutes	38.5	43.0	57.6	52.6
Pass accuracy	71%	72%	86%	86%
Fouls	11.2	10.7	11.2	11.4
Cards	2.70	2.15	2.64	2.96

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hull City

0–15'97

16–30'1510

31–45'1610

46–60'99

61–75'1111

76–90'1114

Chelsea

0–15'1113

16–30'1611

31–45'1913

46–60'2012

61–75'1513

76–90'1515

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hull City · 50 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.11) · stands out: against ten men -0.43

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.1150

Early press (0-15, level)-0.1050

Late push (76+, level)-0.2421

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.3712

Game state

When ahead-0.0933

When level-0.0750

When behind-0.2522

10 min after conceding-0.3232

10 min after scoring+0.2339

Situations

With ten men+0.253

Against ten men-0.433

At home-0.1527

Away-0.0623

3 days rest or fewer-0.0715

4+ days rest-0.1235

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.384

v mid-tier opponents-0.1226

v bottom-tier opponents-0.1115

As favourite+0.206

Evenly matched-0.0720

As underdog-0.2124

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.2850

Conceded when ahead+0.3733

Conceded late (76+)+0.1846

Congested vs rested +0.06 · Ahead vs level -0.02 · Behind vs level -0.17

Chelsea · 53 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.32) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +1.43

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.3253

Early press (0-15, level)+0.1653

Late push (76+, level)+0.3220

Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0219

Game state

When ahead+0.3734

When level+0.4153

When behind+0.1229

10 min after conceding-0.1340

10 min after scoring+0.5445

Situations

With ten men-0.077

Against ten men+0.503

At home+0.3027

Away+0.3426

3 days rest or fewer+0.3921

4+ days rest+0.2732

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.1732

v mid-tier opponents+0.3010

v bottom-tier opponents+1.433

As favourite+0.4835

Evenly matched+0.1411

As underdog-0.187

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.0653

Conceded when ahead-0.1434

Conceded late (76+)-0.3045

Congested vs rested +0.12 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level -0.29

Hull City

Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	33 66%	1.7	1.55	1.24	1.44	1.71
3-4-2-1	7 14%	1.29	0.86	1.57	1.09	1.49
5-4-1	4 8%	2.0	1.25	0.5	0.9	1.44
4-4-2	2 4%	3.0	1.5	0.5	1.09	1.08
3-4-1-2	2 4%	0.5	1.5	2.0	1.25	1.52

Chelsea

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 6 · conceding 9

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	41 77%	1.56	1.73	1.29	1.83	1.25
3-4-2-1	5 9%	1.8	2.4	2.0	1.73	1.63
4-3-3	4 8%	1.5	2.75	1.75	2.42	1.37
4-1-4-1	1 2%	3.0	3.0	2.0	3.18	1.3
5-4-1	1 2%	0.0	0.0	3.0	0.62	2.02

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

13.0Home 7% P 8%7.0Draw 14% P 14%1.2Away 79% P 77%

Double Chance

4.33Hull or Draw 11% P 11%1.1Hull or Chelsea 43% P 43%1.04Draw or Chelsea 46% P 46%

Draw No Bet

11.01 9%1.052 91%

Both Teams To Score

1.95Yes 48% P 48%1.8No 52% P 52%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.4Over 68% P 66%3.0Under 32% P 34%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 42%1.83Under 50% P 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 7.5–10% · away 75–77.5% · 163 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Home	8%	9%	7%	-1.3
Draw	14%	15%	11%	-4.1
Away	77%	76%	82%	+5.4

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 63%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Yes	48%	49%	49%	+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 65–67.5% · 870 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Over 2.5	66%	66%	69%	+3.2

Farai Hallam

Career: 52 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match: 3.58 (3.52 yellow · 0.0 red)
Fouls / match: 21.9 · 6.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match: 0.12
Cards to home side: 36%

Style in FA Cup (5-year window · 7 matches)

Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 2.71 cards, 16.1 fouls per match.

Recent matches

Date	Y	Fouls	1st card	+min
2026-02-11	3	19	35'	7
2026-01-31	5	26	30'	7
2026-01-24	4	30	57'	9
2026-01-17	7	19	21'	7
2026-01-12	1	13	32'	7
2026-01-04	3	19	25'	6
2026-01-01	3	23	26'	6
2025-12-20	2	11	42'	6
2025-11-01	1	19	–	9
2025-10-24	5	25	29'	10

Momentum

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Events

Stats

Season context

League this season · 2025/2026

Trends

Lineups

Bench

Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Hull City · Last 365 days

Chelsea · 2025/2026 · FA Cup

Absences

Hull City

Chelsea

Commentary

In-Play Odds

Competition

Venue

Teams

Referee

Weather

Where to watch · 311

Hull City

Chelsea

All meetings · 14 matches since 2008

Last 10 · 10 matches

Last 5 · 5 matches

Recent meetings

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Chelsea

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hull City · 4 matches

Chelsea · 4 matches

Hull City

Chelsea

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hull City

Chelsea

Hull City

Chelsea

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hull City

Chelsea

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hull City · 50 matches

Chelsea · 53 matches

Hull City

Chelsea

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Latest prices

Fulltime Result

Double Chance

Draw No Bet

Both Teams To Score

Goals Over/Under

Total Corners

Number of Cards

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Match result · home 7.5–10% · away 75–77.5% · 163 fixtures

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 65–67.5% · 870 fixtures

Farai Hallam

Style in FA Cup (5-year window · 7 matches)

Recent matches