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Europa Conference League · Knockout Round Play-offs Lech Poznań went through · After Full Time

Momentum

KuPSLech Poznań
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Knockout Round Play-offs
Leg
1/2

Venue

Stadium
Tammelan Stadion · neutral
Capacity
5,040
Surface
artificial turf
Attendance
3,756

Teams

Coaches
Miika Nuutinen · Niels Frederiksen
Position
1 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-1-4-1

Referee

Əliyar Ağayev

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
-17.6° (feels -21.4°)
Wind
1.3
Humidity
87%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Strasbourg 6510 1156 16 DWWWW
2 Raków Częstochowa 6420 927 14 DDWWW
3 AEK Athens 6411 1477 13 WDWWW
4 Sparta Praha 6411 1037 13 LDWWW
5 Rayo Vallecano 6411 1376 13 DWLWW
6 Shakhtar Donetsk 6411 1055 13 LWWWD
7 FSV Mainz 05 6411 734 13 WWLDW
8 AEK Larnaca 6330 716 12 WDDDW
9 Lausanne Sport 6321 633 11 WDLDW
10 Crystal Palace 6312 1165 10 LWLWD
11 Lech Poznań 6312 1284 10 LLWDW
12 Samsunspor 6312 1064 10 WWDLL
13 Celje 6312 871 10 WWLLD
14 AZ Alkmaar 6312 770 10 WLWWD
15 Fiorentina 6303 853 9 WLLWL
16 Rijeka 6231 523 9 WDDWD
17 Jagiellonia Białystok 6231 541 9 DDWLD
18 Omonia Nicosia 6222 541 8 DDWWL
19 Noah 6222 67-1 8 DLDWL
20 Drita 6222 48-4 8 DWWLL
21 KuPS 6141 651 7 DWLDD
22 Skendija 79 6213 45-1 7 WDLWL
23 Zrinjski 6213 810-2 7 LLWLD
24 Sigma Olomouc 6213 79-2 7 DWWLL
25 Universitatea Craiova 6213 68-2 7 DWWLL
26 Lincoln Red Imps 6213 715-8 7 WDLWL
27 Dynamo Kyiv 6204 990 6 LWLLW
28 Legia Warszawa 6204 880 6 WLLLW
29 Slovan Bratislava 6204 59-4 6 LLWLW
30 Breidablik 6123 611-5 5 DLDWL
31 Shamrock Rovers 6114 713-6 4 LDLLW
32 Häcken 6033 58-3 3 DLLDL
33 Hamrun Spartans 6105 411-7 3 LLWLL
34 Shelbourne 6024 07-7 2 LLLLD
35 Aberdeen 6024 314-11 2 LDDLL
36 SK Rapid 6015 314-11 1 LLLLD
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

KuPS

DWLDD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 5 GA 4 · xG 4.8–8.36 · xPts 4.64

  • D A Crystal Palace 2–2 xG 0.35–1.7 UEFA ECL
  • D H Lausanne Sport 0–0 xG 1.19–2.09 UEFA ECL
  • L A Jagiellonia Białystok 0–1 xG 0.67–1.45 UEFA ECL
  • W H Slovan Bratislava 3–1 xG 1.51–0.72 UEFA ECL
  • D A Breidablik 0–0 xG 1.09–2.4 UEFA ECL

Lech Poznań

LLWDW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 7 · xG 9.46–8.2 · xPts 7.81

  • W A Sigma Olomouc 2–1 xG 2.23–1.6 UEFA ECL
  • D H FSV Mainz 05 1–1 xG 2.8–1.73 UEFA ECL
  • W H Lausanne Sport 2–0 xG 1.05–1.04 UEFA ECL
  • L A Rayo Vallecano 2–3 xG 0.43–2.98 UEFA ECL
  • L A Lincoln Red Imps 1–2 xG 2.95–0.85 UEFA ECL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2026

KuPS 00 draws2 Lech Poznań

Goals 0–3 · 1.5 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 0%

Last 10 · 2 matches

KuPS 00 draws2 Lech Poznań

Goals 0–3 · 1.5 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 0%

Last 5 · 2 matches

KuPS 00 draws2 Lech Poznań

Goals 0–3 · 1.5 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 0%

Recent meetings

  • L Lech Poznań 1–0 KuPS UEFA ECL · Knockout Round Play-offs · leg 2/2
  • L KuPS 0–2 Lech Poznań neutral UEFA ECL · Knockout Round Play-offs · leg 1/2
MetricKuPS all · 8KuPS at home · 4Lech Poznań all · 10Lech Poznań away · 5
Results
Matches8105
Points per game0.871.901.80
W / D / L1 / 4 / 36 / 1 / 33 / 0 / 2
Goals for / match0.751.801.80
Goals against / match1.001.201.40
Clean sheets25%30%20%
Failed to score62%0%0%
Both teams scored38%70%80%
Over 2.525%60%80%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.822.092.06
xG against / match1.871.251.26
xG difference-1.050.850.80
Finishing vs xG-0.07-0.29-0.26
xPts / match0.771.881.89
Points vs xPts0.110.02-0.09
Game state
Scored first12%70%80%
PPG when scoring first1.002.572.25
PPG when conceding first0.800.330.00
Came back from behind40%25%0%
Leads held33%86%75%
Minutes leading10%46%63%
Minutes level58%42%26%
Minutes trailing32%13%10%
First goal (min)554029
First goal conceded (min)365360
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half83%33%11%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%75%86%
Late goals for (76'+)0.130.300.20
Late goals against0.250.500.80
Style
Possession52%54%52%
Shots7.614.916.0
On target1.95.96.2
Shot conversion10%12%11%
Shots inside box64%67%68%
Big chances created0.83.33.4
Corners2.53.85.0
xG from set plays10%42%52%
Goals from headers17%11%22%
Pressure index9.015.015.4
Dominant minutes42.052.958.0
Pass accuracy84%82%82%
Fouls11.09.07.4
Cards1.251.601.20

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

KuPS

0–15'03
16–30'00
31–45'11
46–60'31
61–75'11
76–90'12

Lech Poznań

0–15'40
16–30'11
31–45'72
46–60'02
61–75'32
76–90'35

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

KuPS · 8 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.25) · stands out: when ahead -0.42

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.258
Early press (0-15, level)-0.088
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.295

Game state

When ahead-0.423
When level-0.238
When behind-0.226
10 min after conceding-0.356
10 min after scoring-0.235

Situations

At home-0.164
Away-0.344
4+ days rest-0.258

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.182
As favourite-0.272
Evenly matched-0.174
As underdog-0.412

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.028
Conceded when ahead+0.343
Conceded late (76+)-0.098

Ahead vs level -0.20 · Behind vs level +0.01

Lech Poznań · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.26) · stands out: at home +0.44

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.267
Early press (0-15, level)+0.007
Late push (76+, level)+0.202

Game state

When ahead+0.155
When level+0.317
When behind+0.283
10 min after conceding-0.094
10 min after scoring+0.395

Situations

At home+0.443
Away+0.124
4+ days rest+0.267

Opposition

As favourite+0.244
Evenly matched+0.242

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.287
Conceded when ahead-0.515
Conceded late (76+)-0.432

Ahead vs level -0.16 · Behind vs level -0.03

KuPS

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 1 · scoring 4 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 38%0.00.01.330.62.28
4-3-32 25%1.00.50.50.851.81
4-2-2-21 12%1.00.00.01.192.09
4-4-21 12%3.03.01.01.510.72
3-4-2-11 12%1.02.02.00.351.7

Lech Poznań

Current: winless 2 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-17 70%1.431.861.571.91.39
4-1-4-12 20%3.01.50.02.70.57
4-4-21 10%3.02.01.02.231.6

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 2.4h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

6.5Home 12% P 12%4.75Draw 16% P 20%1.42Away 54% P 68%4.33Tie 18%

Double Chance

2.75KuPS Kuopio or Draw 11% P 16%1.18KuPS Kuopio or Lech Poznan 25% P 40%2.5KuPS Kuopio or Tie 12% P 40%1.12Tie or Lech Poznan 26% P 40%1.1Draw or Lech Poznan 27% P 44%

Draw No Bet

6.01 16%1.122 84%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 25% P 52%1.83No 25% P 48%1.83Não 25%1.83Sim 25%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.61Over 29% P 59%2.25Under 21% P 41%1.8Mais de 26%2.0Menos de 24%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 10–12.5% · away 67.5–70% · 208 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home12%12%11%-0.9
Draw20%20%15%-4.3
Away68%69%74%+5.2

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 57%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.559%59%60%+0.8

Əliyar Ağayev

Career
50 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
4.68 (4.44 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
24.1 · 4.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.36
Cards to home side
55%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 10 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.84.92-0.2835
Fouls / match20.823.8-1.14
Fouls per card4.34.8-0.57 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.30.29-0.0245
Time added8.06.5+1.3892
First card
37' on average
Card timing
12% in first 30' · 42% in last 15'
Cards to home side
52% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-22 60 210 82'6
2025-11-04 70 361 23'12
2025-10-02 40 270 81'6
2025-09-18 50 270 33'6
2025-08-21 31 130 33'6
2025-08-06 · KuPS 10 250 13'8