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Europa League · Knockout Round Play-offs Nottingham Forest went through · After Full Time

Momentum

FenerbahçeNFO
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

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Competition

Stage
Knockout Round Play-offs
Leg
1/2

Venue

Stadium
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, İstanbul
Capacity
50,530
Surface
grass
Attendance
39,840

Teams

Coaches
Domenico Tedesco · Vítor de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
Position
1 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Sandro Schärer

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
10.3° (feels 9.1°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
64%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Olympique Lyonnais 8701 18513 21 LWWWW
2 Aston Villa 8701 1468 21 WWWWW
3 FC Midtjylland 8611 18810 19 WLWDW
4 Real Betis 8521 1376 17 WWWLW
5 Porto 8521 1376 17 DWWDW
6 Sporting Braga 8521 1156 17 LDWWD
7 SC Freiburg 8521 1046 17 WDWWL
8 Roma 8512 1367 16 WWWWD
9 Genk 8512 1174 16 WWLWW
10 Bologna 8431 1477 15 DWWDW
11 VfB Stuttgart 8503 1596 15 WWWLW
12 Ferencvárosi 8431 12111 15 WDWDL
13 Nottingham Forest 8422 1578 14 DWWLW
14 Viktoria Plzeň 8350 835 14 DDDDW
15 Crvena Zvezda 8422 761 14 WWWWD
16 Celta de Vigo 8413 15114 13 WLLWD
17 PAOK 8332 17143 12 WDDWL
18 LOSC Lille 8404 1293 12 LWLLW
19 Fenerbahçe 8332 1073 12 DDWLD
20 Panathinaikos 8332 1192 12 WWDDD
21 Celtic 8323 1315-2 11 LWLDW
22 Ludogorets 8314 1215-3 10 LWDLW
23 Dinamo Zagreb 8314 1216-4 10 LLLWL
24 Brann 8233 911-2 9 DDLDL
25 Young Boys 8305 1016-6 9 LLWLL
26 Sturm Graz 8215 511-6 7 DLLLW
27 FCSB 8215 916-7 7 LLWLD
28 Go Ahead Eagles 8215 614-8 7 LLLLD
29 Feyenoord 8206 1115-4 6 LLLWL
30 Basel 8206 913-4 6 WLLLL
31 Salzburg 8206 1015-5 6 WLLWL
32 Rangers 8116 514-9 4 LDLWL
33 Nice 8107 715-8 3 LLLWL
34 FC Utrecht 8017 515-10 1 DLLLL
35 Malmö FF 8017 415-11 1 LLLLL
36 Maccabi Tel Aviv 8017 222-20 1 LLLLL
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Fenerbahçe

DDWLD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 3 · xG 7.42–5.31 · xPts 7.87

  • D A FCSB 1–1 xG 1.6–1.62 UEFA EL
  • L H Aston Villa 0–1 xG 0.65–1.38 UEFA EL
  • W A Brann 4–0 xG 2.84–0.28 UEFA EL
  • D H Ferencvárosi 1–1 xG 1.27–0.95 UEFA EL
  • D A Viktoria Plzeň 0–0 xG 1.06–1.07 UEFA EL

Nottingham Forest

WWDLD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 4 · xG 8.75–7.01 · xPts 7.56

  • D H Wolverhampton Wanderers 0–0 xG 3.23–0.48 UK PL
  • L A Leeds United 1–3 xG 1.55–2.39 UK PL
  • D H Crystal Palace 1–1 xG 0.59–1.89 UK PL
  • W H Ferencvárosi 4–0 xG 2.47–0.72 UEFA EL
  • W A Brentford 2–0 xG 0.91–1.53 UK PL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2026

Fenerbahçe 10 draws1 Nottingham Forest

Goals 2–4 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Fenerbahçe 10 draws1 Nottingham Forest

Goals 2–4 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Fenerbahçe 10 draws1 Nottingham Forest

Goals 2–4 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W Nottingham Forest 1–2 Fenerbahçe UEFA EL · Knockout Round Play-offs · leg 2/2
  • L Fenerbahçe 0–3 Nottingham Forest UEFA EL · Knockout Round Play-offs · leg 1/2
MetricFenerbahçe all · 10Fenerbahçe at home · 5Nottingham Forest all · 16Nottingham Forest away · 8
Results
Matches105168
Points per game1.501.401.691.50
W / D / L4 / 3 / 32 / 1 / 28 / 3 / 53 / 3 / 2
Goals for / match1.200.801.501.25
Goals against / match1.101.201.001.25
Clean sheets30%20%44%25%
Failed to score30%40%25%38%
Both teams scored50%40%38%50%
Over 2.550%40%56%62%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.341.151.781.65
xG against / match1.251.421.061.11
xG difference0.08-0.270.720.54
Finishing vs xG-0.14-0.35-0.28-0.40
xPts / match1.401.201.881.78
Points vs xPts0.100.20-0.19-0.28
Game state
Scored first50%40%50%38%
PPG when scoring first2.603.003.003.00
PPG when conceding first0.250.330.290.50
Came back from behind25%33%29%50%
Leads held80%100%89%75%
Minutes leading39%32%37%31%
Minutes level41%38%47%56%
Minutes trailing20%30%16%13%
First goal (min)25353229
First goal conceded (min)44374243
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half25%25%46%40%
Goals conceded in 2nd half54%33%62%70%
Late goals for (76'+)0.000.000.250.13
Late goals against0.100.000.310.38
Style
Possession58%56%53%49%
Shots13.814.815.614.0
On target5.65.65.95.4
Shot conversion9%5%10%9%
Shots inside box49%43%64%65%
Big chances created2.31.43.03.0
Corners4.84.45.64.9
xG from set plays28%30%41%39%
Goals from headers18%0%12%30%
Pressure index20.015.020.014.9
Dominant minutes56.348.860.953.9
Pass accuracy84%84%85%83%
Fouls9.710.613.114.3
Cards3.604.801.631.63

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Fenerbahçe

0–15'20
16–30'43
31–45'32
46–60'12
61–75'23
76–90'01

Nottingham Forest

0–15'22
16–30'83
31–45'31
46–60'53
61–75'22
76–90'45

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Fenerbahçe · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.14) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.62

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.146
Early press (0-15, level)+0.486
Late push (76+, level)-0.293

Game state

When ahead+0.144
When level+0.176
When behind-0.422
10 min after conceding-0.374
10 min after scoring+0.626

Situations

At home+0.293
Away+0.003
4+ days rest+0.146

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.023
As favourite+0.214
As underdog+0.012

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.076
Conceded when ahead-0.214
Conceded late (76+)-0.296

Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.60

Nottingham Forest · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.52

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.064
Early press (0-15, level)-0.434
Late push (76+, level)-0.394

Game state

When ahead+0.652
When level-0.104
10 min after conceding-0.523
10 min after scoring+0.742

Situations

At home-0.262
Away+0.372
4+ days rest+0.064

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.372
Evenly matched+0.093

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.004
Conceded when ahead-0.202
Conceded late (76+)-0.354

Ahead vs level +0.75 · Behind vs level -0.62

Fenerbahçe

Current: unbeaten 7 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 40%1.01.01.01.291.25
4-3-33 30%2.331.330.671.611.38
3-5-21 10%3.02.01.01.920.78
3-4-2-11 10%0.01.03.00.211.69
4-1-4-11 10%1.01.01.01.270.95

Nottingham Forest

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-16 38%2.172.00.331.910.68
3-4-2-13 19%1.331.01.01.411.16
4-3-32 12%3.02.00.51.910.84
4-4-22 12%1.50.50.51.730.83
3-4-31 6%0.02.03.02.062.35

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.0h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.75Home 22% P 34%3.2Draw 19% P 31%2.62Away 23% P 35%3.25Nottm Forest 18%3.1Tie 19%

Double Chance

1.44Fenerbahce or Draw 20% P 33%1.36Fenerbahce or Nottm Forest 21% P 35%1.33Fenerbahce or Tie 21% P 35%1.61Tie or Nottm Forest 18% P 35%1.4Draw or Nottm Forest 20% P 33%

Draw No Bet

1.831 36%1.832 36%2.25Nottm Forest 29%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 51%1.95No 48% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 44%1.72Under 55% P 56%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

4.51.72Over 54% P 54%2.0Under 46% P 46%
5.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 32.5–35% · 336 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home34%34%36%+2.3
Draw31%32%29%-3.3
Away35%34%35%+1.0

In those fixtures: 2.2 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 40%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes51%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,474 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.544%44%43%-1.2

Sandro Schärer

Career
72 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
4.43 (4.18 yellow · 0.13 red)
Fouls / match
23.8 · 4.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.42
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Europa League (5-year window · 15 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.074.72+0.2564
Fouls / match25.524.1+0.66
Fouls per card5.05.1-0.18 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.33-0.7319
Time added5.06.6-1.812
First card
32' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 44% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-21 30 201 61'5
2025-12-18 50 300 5'6
2025-09-17 10 161 44'5
2025-08-20 30 240 42'7
2025-08-14 41 290 53'4
2025-08-05 50 260 16'11
2025-05-01 30 180 82'4
2025-04-17 71 312 18'7
2025-04-08 50 180 28'2
2025-03-12 50 231 32'6