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Europa League · 8th Finals Porto went through · After Full Time

Momentum

PortoVFB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
8th Finals
Leg
2/2

Venue

Stadium
Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
Capacity
50,033
Surface
grass
Attendance
40,675

Teams

Coaches
Francesco Farioli · Sebastian Hoeneß
Position
1 · 2
Formation
4-3-3 · 3-4-1-2

Referee

Anthony Taylor

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
14.7° (feels 14.3°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
82%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Olympique Lyonnais 8701 18513 21 LWWWW
2 Aston Villa 8701 1468 21 WWWWW
3 FC Midtjylland 8611 18810 19 WLWDW
4 Real Betis 8521 1376 17 WWWLW
5 Porto 8521 1376 17 DWWDW
6 Sporting Braga 8521 1156 17 LDWWD
7 SC Freiburg 8521 1046 17 WDWWL
8 Roma 8512 1367 16 WWWWD
9 Genk 8512 1174 16 WWLWW
10 Bologna 8431 1477 15 DWWDW
11 VfB Stuttgart 8503 1596 15 WWWLW
12 Ferencvárosi 8431 12111 15 WDWDL
13 Nottingham Forest 8422 1578 14 DWWLW
14 Viktoria Plzeň 8350 835 14 DDDDW
15 Crvena Zvezda 8422 761 14 WWWWD
16 Celta de Vigo 8413 15114 13 WLLWD
17 PAOK 8332 17143 12 WDDWL
18 LOSC Lille 8404 1293 12 LWLLW
19 Fenerbahçe 8332 1073 12 DDWLD
20 Panathinaikos 8332 1192 12 WWDDD
21 Celtic 8323 1315-2 11 LWLDW
22 Ludogorets 8314 1215-3 10 LWDLW
23 Dinamo Zagreb 8314 1216-4 10 LLLWL
24 Brann 8233 911-2 9 DDLDL
25 Young Boys 8305 1016-6 9 LLWLL
26 Sturm Graz 8215 511-6 7 DLLLW
27 FCSB 8215 916-7 7 LLWLD
28 Go Ahead Eagles 8215 614-8 7 LLLLD
29 Feyenoord 8206 1115-4 6 LLLWL
30 Basel 8206 913-4 6 WLLLL
31 Salzburg 8206 1015-5 6 WLLWL
32 Rangers 8116 514-9 4 LDLWL
33 Nice 8107 715-8 3 LLLWL
34 FC Utrecht 8017 515-10 1 DLLLL
35 Malmö FF 8017 415-11 1 LLLLL
36 Maccabi Tel Aviv 8017 222-20 1 LLLLL
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Porto

WWDWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 11 GA 4 · xG 10.69–3.43 · xPts 11.31

  • W H Moreirense 3–0 xG 1.79–0.1 PRT PL
  • W A VfB Stuttgart 2–1 xG 1.33–0.71 UEFA EL
  • D A Benfica 2–2 xG 2.16–1.76 PRT PL
  • W H Arouca 3–1 xG 3.22–0.37 PRT PL
  • W H Rio Ave 1–0 xG 2.19–0.48 PRT PL

VfB Stuttgart

LWDLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 9.19–6.53 · xPts 8.29

  • W H RB Leipzig 1–0 xG 1.32–1.0 GER BI
  • L H Porto 1–2 xG 0.71–1.33 UEFA EL
  • D A FSV Mainz 05 2–2 xG 1.17–2.91 GER BI
  • W H VfL Wolfsburg 4–0 xG 3.64–1.01 GER BI
  • L H Celtic 0–1 xG 2.35–0.29 UEFA EL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2026

Porto 20 draws0 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 4–1 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Porto 20 draws0 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 4–1 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Porto 20 draws0 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 4–1 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • W Porto 2–0 VfB Stuttgart UEFA EL · 8th Finals · leg 2/2
  • W VfB Stuttgart 1–2 Porto UEFA EL · 8th Finals · leg 1/2
MetricPorto all · 12Porto at home · 6VfB Stuttgart all · 12VfB Stuttgart away · 6
Results
Matches126126
Points per game2.002.671.501.00
W / D / L7 / 3 / 25 / 1 / 06 / 0 / 62 / 0 / 4
Goals for / match1.502.171.671.33
Goals against / match0.830.671.251.33
Clean sheets25%33%17%17%
Failed to score17%0%42%67%
Both teams scored58%67%42%17%
Over 2.542%67%50%33%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.691.991.921.81
xG against / match1.000.791.101.29
xG difference0.691.200.830.53
Finishing vs xG-0.190.18-0.26-0.48
xPts / match1.832.141.881.71
Points vs xPts0.170.53-0.38-0.71
Game state
Scored first58%83%50%33%
PPG when scoring first2.712.603.003.00
PPG when conceding first1.003.000.000.00
Came back from behind60%100%0%0%
Leads held88%83%100%100%
Minutes leading34%55%28%26%
Minutes level41%41%33%26%
Minutes trailing25%4%39%48%
First goal (min)36163418
First goal conceded (min)30353224
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half33%23%55%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half30%25%40%38%
Late goals for (76'+)0.250.170.500.33
Late goals against0.170.170.250.33
Style
Possession52%49%60%58%
Shots14.314.018.818.7
On target5.15.56.55.7
Shot conversion10%16%9%7%
Shots inside box64%66%64%69%
Big chances created2.83.83.22.8
Corners5.14.56.56.3
xG from set plays23%18%23%29%
Goals from headers11%15%15%12%
Pressure index20.823.924.724.2
Dominant minutes57.459.065.865.8
Pass accuracy83%84%85%84%
Fouls11.211.212.811.0
Cards2.421.502.423.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Porto

0–15'34
16–30'51
31–45'42
46–60'01
61–75'30
76–90'32

VfB Stuttgart

0–15'32
16–30'34
31–45'33
46–60'42
61–75'11
76–90'63

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Porto · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.40) · stands out: when level +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.407
Early press (0-15, level)+0.717

Game state

When ahead+0.146
When level+0.807
When behind+0.193
10 min after conceding+0.203
10 min after scoring+0.616

Situations

At home+0.414
Away+0.393
4+ days rest+0.407

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.605
As favourite+0.566

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.077
Conceded when ahead+0.126
Conceded late (76+)+0.016

Ahead vs level -0.67 · Behind vs level -0.61

VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294

Situations

At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124

Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.24

Porto

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-312 100%2.01.50.831.691.0

VfB Stuttgart

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-16 50%2.02.331.52.171.18
3-4-2-14 33%1.51.50.751.531.05
3-4-1-21 8%0.00.02.01.621.59
4-4-1-11 8%0.00.01.02.350.29

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.3h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.5Home 38% P 38%3.4Draw 28% P 27%2.7Away 35% P 35%

Double Chance

1.4FC Porto or Draw 33% P 33%1.28FC Porto or VfB Stuttgart 36% P 37%1.53Draw or VfB Stuttgart 30% P 31%

Draw No Bet

1.721 54%2.02 46%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56% P 57%2.1No 44% P 43%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 51%1.9Under 50% P 49%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.51.8Over 51% P 54%1.9Under 49% P 46%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 32.5–35% · 571 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home38%39%39%+0.5
Draw27%28%28%-0.0
Away35%34%33%-0.4

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes57%56%57%+1.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Anthony Taylor

Career
626 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match
3.88 (3.7 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
19.6 · 4.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
50%

Style in Europa League (5-year window · 13 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match6.04.72+1.2183
Fouls / match25.324.1+0.58
Fouls per card4.55.1-0.70 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.390.33+0.4870
Time added6.66.6-0.1143
First card
27' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.5

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