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Europa Conference League · 8th Finals AEK Athens went through · After Full Time

Momentum

AEK AthensCelje
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

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Competition

Stage
8th Finals
Leg
2/2

Venue

Stadium
OPAP Arena
Capacity
32,500
Surface
grass
Attendance
26,221

Teams

Coaches
Marko Nikolić · Vítor de Carvalho Campelos
Position
1 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Simone Sozza

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
9.2° (feels 4.9°)
Wind
11.2
Humidity
76%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Strasbourg 6510 1156 16 DWWWW
2 Raków Częstochowa 6420 927 14 DDWWW
3 AEK Athens 6411 1477 13 WDWWW
4 Sparta Praha 6411 1037 13 LDWWW
5 Rayo Vallecano 6411 1376 13 DWLWW
6 Shakhtar Donetsk 6411 1055 13 LWWWD
7 FSV Mainz 05 6411 734 13 WWLDW
8 AEK Larnaca 6330 716 12 WDDDW
9 Lausanne Sport 6321 633 11 WDLDW
10 Crystal Palace 6312 1165 10 LWLWD
11 Lech Poznań 6312 1284 10 LLWDW
12 Samsunspor 6312 1064 10 WWDLL
13 Celje 6312 871 10 WWLLD
14 AZ Alkmaar 6312 770 10 WLWWD
15 Fiorentina 6303 853 9 WLLWL
16 Rijeka 6231 523 9 WDDWD
17 Jagiellonia Białystok 6231 541 9 DDWLD
18 Omonia Nicosia 6222 541 8 DDWWL
19 Noah 6222 67-1 8 DLDWL
20 Drita 6222 48-4 8 DWWLL
21 KuPS 6141 651 7 DWLDD
22 Skendija 79 6213 45-1 7 WDLWL
23 Zrinjski 6213 810-2 7 LLWLD
24 Sigma Olomouc 6213 79-2 7 DWWLL
25 Universitatea Craiova 6213 68-2 7 DWWLL
26 Lincoln Red Imps 6213 715-8 7 WDLWL
27 Dynamo Kyiv 6204 990 6 LWLLW
28 Legia Warszawa 6204 880 6 WLLLW
29 Slovan Bratislava 6204 59-4 6 LLWLW
30 Breidablik 6123 611-5 5 DLDWL
31 Shamrock Rovers 6114 713-6 4 LDLLW
32 Häcken 6033 58-3 3 DLLDL
33 Hamrun Spartans 6105 411-7 3 LLWLL
34 Shelbourne 6024 07-7 2 LLLLD
35 Aberdeen 6024 314-11 2 LDDLL
36 SK Rapid 6015 314-11 1 LLLLD
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

AEK Athens

WWWW 4W 0D 0L · 12 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 3 · xG 9.26–4.55 · xPts 7.87

  • W A Celje 4–0 xG 3.37–0.34 UEFA ECL
  • W H Universitatea Craiova 3–2 xG 3.14–1.73 UEFA ECL
  • W A Samsunspor 2–1 xG 1.19–1.23 UEFA ECL
  • W A Fiorentina 1–0 xG 1.55–1.24 UEFA ECL

Celje

LDWWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 11 · xG 8.27–9.92 · xPts 6.38

  • L H AEK Athens 0–4 xG 0.34–3.37 UEFA ECL
  • W H Drita 3–2 xG 2.77–1.47 UEFA ECL
  • W A Drita 3–2 xG 2.44–1.97 UEFA ECL
  • D H Shelbourne 0–0 xG 1.74–1.34 UEFA ECL
  • L A Rijeka 0–3 xG 0.99–1.77 UEFA ECL

All meetings · 3 matches since 2025

AEK Athens 10 draws2 Celje

Goals 5–5 · 3.33 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 67%

Last 10 · 3 matches

AEK Athens 10 draws2 Celje

Goals 5–5 · 3.33 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 67%

Last 5 · 3 matches

AEK Athens 10 draws2 Celje

Goals 5–5 · 3.33 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 67%

Recent meetings

  • L AEK Athens 0–2 Celje UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 2/2
  • W Celje 0–4 AEK Athens UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 1/2
  • L Celje 3–1 AEK Athens UEFA ECL · League Stage
MetricAEK Athens all · 16AEK Athens at home · 8Celje all · 14Celje away · 7
Results
Matches168147
Points per game1.942.382.002.14
W / D / L9 / 4 / 36 / 1 / 19 / 1 / 45 / 0 / 2
Goals for / match1.882.381.862.14
Goals against / match1.060.881.361.00
Clean sheets38%38%43%57%
Failed to score19%12%21%14%
Both teams scored50%50%43%29%
Over 2.556%50%64%57%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.202.831.821.93
xG against / match1.311.061.821.66
xG difference0.891.770.000.27
Finishing vs xG-0.20-0.330.100.24
xPts / match1.752.161.421.52
Points vs xPts0.170.010.420.48
Game state
Scored first56%62%50%71%
PPG when scoring first2.443.003.003.00
PPG when conceding first1.331.331.000.00
Came back from behind57%67%33%0%
Leads held82%100%90%100%
Minutes leading34%37%42%52%
Minutes level37%36%35%32%
Minutes trailing29%28%23%16%
First goal (min)38452723
First goal conceded (min)26372441
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%65%35%27%
Goals conceded in 2nd half35%43%53%71%
Late goals for (76'+)0.440.880.360.43
Late goals against0.060.000.210.14
Style
Possession51%52%59%56%
Shots16.420.413.711.3
On target5.97.05.45.0
Shot conversion11%12%14%19%
Shots inside box72%69%61%68%
Big chances created4.35.73.03.8
Corners5.87.54.12.4
xG from set plays30%32%34%38%
Goals from headers21%27%5%10%
Pressure index24.234.116.612.2
Dominant minutes55.567.053.748.3
Pass accuracy85%84%86%85%
Fouls10.910.612.611.7
Cards2.311.752.142.14

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

AEK Athens

0–15'63
16–30'24
31–45'54
46–60'73
61–75'32
76–90'51

Celje

0–15'34
16–30'62
31–45'83
46–60'24
61–75'23
76–90'53

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

AEK Athens · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 4+ days rest +0.10

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.103
Early press (0-15, level)-0.033

Game state

When ahead+0.212
When level+0.013
10 min after scoring+1.102

Situations

At home+0.182
4+ days rest+0.103

Opposition

As favourite+0.182

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.183
Conceded when ahead-0.232
Conceded late (76+)-0.442

Ahead vs level +0.19

Celje · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.05) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.33

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.056
Early press (0-15, level)-0.146
Late push (76+, level)-0.335

Game state

When ahead-0.552
When level-0.156
When behind+0.245
10 min after conceding+0.145
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home+0.083
Away-0.173
4+ days rest-0.056

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents-0.072
As favourite+0.043
As underdog-0.292

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.036
Conceded when ahead-0.152
Conceded late (76+)-0.016

Ahead vs level -0.40 · Behind vs level +0.39

AEK Athens

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · clean sheets 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-25 31%2.01.81.02.221.42
4-2-3-14 25%1.752.250.752.680.82
4-4-1-13 19%2.02.02.01.741.84
4-3-2-11 6%1.00.00.0
4-3-1-21 6%1.02.02.0

Celje

Current: winless 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-35 36%2.41.81.41.282.04
3-4-2-13 21%3.03.330.332.681.42
3-4-32 14%1.51.52.01.82.9
4-1-4-12 14%0.50.51.01.551.64
3-4-1-21 7%3.03.02.02.771.47

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.2h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.25Home 75% P 76%6.25Draw 15% P 15%10.0Away 9% P 9%

Double Chance

1.07AEK Athens or Draw 44% P 45%1.11AEK Athens or NK Celje 43% P 43%3.75Draw or NK Celje 13% P 12%

Draw No Bet

1.081 88%8.02 12%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 46% P 48%1.72No 54% P 52%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 61% P 64%2.4Under 39% P 36%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 75–77.5% · away 7.5–10% · 515 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home76%76%77%+0.9
Draw15%15%15%-0.5
Away9%9%8%-0.4

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 49% · over 2.5 66%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes48%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.564%64%63%-0.4

Simone Sozza

Career
103 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
4.63 (4.41 yellow · 0.15 red)
Fouls / match
25.2 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.49
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 6 matches)

Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 3.17 cards, 23.3 fouls per match.

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-08 51 461 44'10
2026-03-01 10 190 27'16
2026-02-26 30 331 28'3
2026-02-15 20 220 4'5
2026-02-01 40 260 45'7
2026-01-22 60 251 26'6
2026-01-07 80 262 20'9
2025-12-20 50 270 21'6
2025-12-14 10 250 33'6
2025-11-27 60 300 8'7