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Europa Conference League · 8th Finals Crystal Palace went through · After Extra Time

Momentum

AEK LarnacaCRY
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
8th Finals
Leg
2/2

Venue

Stadium
AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, Larnaca
Capacity
8,058
Surface
grass
Attendance
7,019

Teams

Coaches
Javi Rozada · Oliver Glasner
Position
1 · 2
Formation
5-4-1 · 3-4-3

Referee

Əliyar Ağayev

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
15.2° (feels 14.8°)
Wind
4.1
Humidity
81%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Strasbourg 6510 1156 16 DWWWW
2 Raków Częstochowa 6420 927 14 DDWWW
3 AEK Athens 6411 1477 13 WDWWW
4 Sparta Praha 6411 1037 13 LDWWW
5 Rayo Vallecano 6411 1376 13 DWLWW
6 Shakhtar Donetsk 6411 1055 13 LWWWD
7 FSV Mainz 05 6411 734 13 WWLDW
8 AEK Larnaca 6330 716 12 WDDDW
9 Lausanne Sport 6321 633 11 WDLDW
10 Crystal Palace 6312 1165 10 LWLWD
11 Lech Poznań 6312 1284 10 LLWDW
12 Samsunspor 6312 1064 10 WWDLL
13 Celje 6312 871 10 WWLLD
14 AZ Alkmaar 6312 770 10 WLWWD
15 Fiorentina 6303 853 9 WLLWL
16 Rijeka 6231 523 9 WDDWD
17 Jagiellonia Białystok 6231 541 9 DDWLD
18 Omonia Nicosia 6222 541 8 DDWWL
19 Noah 6222 67-1 8 DLDWL
20 Drita 6222 48-4 8 DWWLL
21 KuPS 6141 651 7 DWLDD
22 Skendija 79 6213 45-1 7 WDLWL
23 Zrinjski 6213 810-2 7 LLWLD
24 Sigma Olomouc 6213 79-2 7 DWWLL
25 Universitatea Craiova 6213 68-2 7 DWWLL
26 Lincoln Red Imps 6213 715-8 7 WDLWL
27 Dynamo Kyiv 6204 990 6 LWLLW
28 Legia Warszawa 6204 880 6 WLLLW
29 Slovan Bratislava 6204 59-4 6 LLWLW
30 Breidablik 6123 611-5 5 DLDWL
31 Shamrock Rovers 6114 713-6 4 LDLLW
32 Häcken 6033 58-3 3 DLLDL
33 Hamrun Spartans 6105 411-7 3 LLWLL
34 Shelbourne 6024 07-7 2 LLLLD
35 Aberdeen 6024 314-11 2 LDDLL
36 SK Rapid 6015 314-11 1 LLLLD
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

AEK Larnaca

DDWD 1W 3D 0L · 6 pts (1.5 ppg) · GF 2 GA 1 · xG 3.79–5.28 · xPts 4.54

  • D A Crystal Palace 0–0 xG 0.26–2.44 UEFA ECL
  • W H Skendija 79 1–0 xG 2.2–0.22 UEFA ECL
  • D A Häcken 1–1 xG 0.85–1.31 UEFA ECL
  • D A Rijeka 0–0 xG 0.47–1.31 UEFA ECL

Crystal Palace

WLWDD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 6 GA 3 · xG 7.78–5.3 · xPts 8.45

  • D H Leeds United 0–0 xG 0.86–1.26 UK PL
  • D H AEK Larnaca 0–0 xG 2.44–0.26 UEFA ECL
  • W A Tottenham Hotspur 3–1 xG 1.84–1.21 UK PL
  • L A Manchester United 1–2 xG 0.62–2.21 UK PL
  • W H Zrinjski 2–0 xG 2.02–0.36 UEFA ECL

All meetings · 3 matches since 2025

AEK Larnaca 11 draws1 Crystal Palace

Goals 2–2 · 1.33 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 3 matches

AEK Larnaca 11 draws1 Crystal Palace

Goals 2–2 · 1.33 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%

Last 5 · 3 matches

AEK Larnaca 11 draws1 Crystal Palace

Goals 2–2 · 1.33 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%

Recent meetings

  • L AEK Larnaca 1–2 Crystal Palace aet UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 2/2
  • D Crystal Palace 0–0 AEK Larnaca UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 1/2
  • W Crystal Palace 0–1 AEK Larnaca UEFA ECL · League Stage
MetricAEK Larnaca all · 8AEK Larnaca at home · 4Crystal Palace all · 17Crystal Palace away · 8
Results
Matches8178
Points per game1.632.001.75
W / D / L3 / 4 / 110 / 4 / 34 / 2 / 2
Goals for / match1.001.591.63
Goals against / match0.380.710.88
Clean sheets75%47%38%
Failed to score38%18%12%
Both teams scored25%47%62%
Over 2.525%53%62%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.032.061.90
xG against / match1.470.851.09
xG difference-0.441.210.80
Finishing vs xG-0.03-0.47-0.27
xPts / match1.112.081.78
Points vs xPts0.52-0.08-0.03
Game state
Scored first50%82%88%
PPG when scoring first2.502.291.86
PPG when conceding first0.000.00
Came back from behind0%25%0%
Leads held75%71%57%
Minutes leading18%44%44%
Minutes level72%49%49%
Minutes trailing10%7%7%
First goal (min)572622
First goal conceded (min)524950
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half88%38%25%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%83%86%
Late goals for (76'+)0.250.290.25
Late goals against0.250.060.13
Style
Possession47%54%52%
Shots9.615.615.8
On target3.15.25.9
Shot conversion10%10%10%
Shots inside box64%69%72%
Big chances created2.14.34.0
Corners3.44.84.5
xG from set plays37%31%22%
Goals from headers29%22%15%
Pressure index16.221.221.1
Dominant minutes44.963.862.4
Pass accuracy76%81%80%
Fouls10.112.613.5
Cards3.001.942.25

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

AEK Larnaca

0–15'01
16–30'10
31–45'00
46–60'20
61–75'30
76–90'21

Crystal Palace

0–15'40
16–30'51
31–45'71
46–60'68
61–75'01
76–90'41

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

AEK Larnaca · 2 matches

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.122
Early press (0-15, level)+0.112
Late push (76+, level)+0.802

Game state

When level-0.192
10 min after conceding+0.272

Situations

4+ days rest-0.122

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.032
Conceded late (76+)-0.502

Ahead vs level +0.21 · Behind vs level +0.09

Crystal Palace · 5 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.21) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.59

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.215
Early press (0-15, level)-0.055
Late push (76+, level)+1.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.593

Game state

When ahead-0.023
When level-0.065
When behind-0.404
10 min after conceding-0.434
10 min after scoring+0.124

Situations

At home-0.143
Away-0.292
4+ days rest-0.215

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.333
As favourite+0.032
As underdog-0.402

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.145
Conceded when ahead+0.133
Conceded late (76+)-0.224

Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.34

AEK Larnaca

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 38%1.671.670.331.421.16
5-4-13 38%1.330.670.670.312.41
4-1-4-11 12%3.01.00.02.20.22
4-3-31 12%1.00.00.00.810.79

Crystal Palace

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 4 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-313 76%2.081.690.692.080.88
3-4-2-14 24%1.751.250.752.010.73

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.2h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

6.5Home 15% P 13%4.0Draw 24% P 24%1.53Away 62% P 63%

Double Chance

2.3AEK Larnaca or Draw 20% P 18%1.22AEK Larnaca or Crystal Palace 38% P 38%1.12Draw or Crystal Palace 42% P 44%

Draw No Bet

5.01 19%1.162 81%

Both Teams To Score

2.25Yes 41% P 41%1.57No 59% P 59%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.15Over 44% P 44%1.66Under 56% P 56%

Total Corners

6.5Under 6 14%2.626 - 8 34%2.759 - 11 32%6.012 - 14 15%15.0Over 14 6%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%
4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 12.5–15% · away 62.5–65% · 233 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home13%14%16%+1.8
Draw24%22%23%+0.7
Away63%64%61%-2.5

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 49% · over 2.5 55%

Both teams to score · yes 40–42.5% · 664 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes41%41%41%-0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,474 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.544%44%43%-1.2

Əliyar Ağayev

Career
50 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
4.68 (4.44 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
24.1 · 4.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.36
Cards to home side
55%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 10 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.84.92-0.2835
Fouls / match20.823.8-1.14
Fouls per card4.34.8-0.57 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.30.29-0.0245
Time added8.06.5+1.3892
First card
37' on average
Card timing
12% in first 30' · 42% in last 15'
Cards to home side
52% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-19 21 160 12'10
2026-01-22 60 210 82'6
2025-11-04 70 361 23'12
2025-10-02 40 270 81'6
2025-09-18 50 270 33'6
2025-08-21 31 130 33'6
2025-08-06 10 250 13'8