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Europa Conference League · 8th Finals FSV Mainz 05 went through · After Full Time

Momentum

SIGFSV Mainz 05
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
8th Finals
Leg
1/2

Venue

Stadium
Andrův stadion, Olomouc
Capacity
12,566
Surface
grass
Attendance
9,456

Teams

Coaches
Tomas Janotka · Urs Fischer
Position
1 · 2
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Mohammad Al Emara

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
6.0° (feels 6.0°)
Wind
0.8
Humidity
86%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Strasbourg 6510 1156 16 DWWWW
2 Raków Częstochowa 6420 927 14 DDWWW
3 AEK Athens 6411 1477 13 WDWWW
4 Sparta Praha 6411 1037 13 LDWWW
5 Rayo Vallecano 6411 1376 13 DWLWW
6 Shakhtar Donetsk 6411 1055 13 LWWWD
7 FSV Mainz 05 6411 734 13 WWLDW
8 AEK Larnaca 6330 716 12 WDDDW
9 Lausanne Sport 6321 633 11 WDLDW
10 Crystal Palace 6312 1165 10 LWLWD
11 Lech Poznań 6312 1284 10 LLWDW
12 Samsunspor 6312 1064 10 WWDLL
13 Celje 6312 871 10 WWLLD
14 AZ Alkmaar 6312 770 10 WLWWD
15 Fiorentina 6303 853 9 WLLWL
16 Rijeka 6231 523 9 WDDWD
17 Jagiellonia Białystok 6231 541 9 DDWLD
18 Omonia Nicosia 6222 541 8 DDWWL
19 Noah 6222 67-1 8 DLDWL
20 Drita 6222 48-4 8 DWWLL
21 KuPS 6141 651 7 DWLDD
22 Skendija 79 6213 45-1 7 WDLWL
23 Zrinjski 6213 810-2 7 LLWLD
24 Sigma Olomouc 6213 79-2 7 DWWLL
25 Universitatea Craiova 6213 68-2 7 DWWLL
26 Lincoln Red Imps 6213 715-8 7 WDLWL
27 Dynamo Kyiv 6204 990 6 LWLLW
28 Legia Warszawa 6204 880 6 WLLLW
29 Slovan Bratislava 6204 59-4 6 LLWLW
30 Breidablik 6123 611-5 5 DLDWL
31 Shamrock Rovers 6114 713-6 4 LDLLW
32 Häcken 6033 58-3 3 DLLDL
33 Hamrun Spartans 6105 411-7 3 LLWLL
34 Shelbourne 6024 07-7 2 LLLLD
35 Aberdeen 6024 314-11 2 LDDLL
36 SK Rapid 6015 314-11 1 LLLLD
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Sigma Olomouc

WLLDW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 7 · xG 10.28–6.2 · xPts 9.17

  • W A Lausanne Sport 2–1 xG 1.19–1.46 UEFA ECL
  • D H Lausanne Sport 1–1 xG 3.02–0.51 UEFA ECL
  • L H Lech Poznań 1–2 xG 1.6–2.23 UEFA ECL
  • L A Lincoln Red Imps 1–2 xG 2.53–0.62 UEFA ECL
  • W H Celje 2–1 xG 1.95–1.37 UEFA ECL

FSV Mainz 05

WLDDD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 9.31–7.54 · xPts 8.12

  • D H VfB Stuttgart 2–2 xG 2.91–1.17 GER BI
  • D A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 xG 0.88–2.28 GER BI
  • D H Hamburger SV 1–1 xG 1.88–0.73 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Dortmund 0–4 xG 1.41–2.59 GER BI
  • W H FC Augsburg 2–0 xG 2.23–0.77 GER BI

All meetings · 2 matches since 2026

Sigma Olomouc 01 draws1 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 0–2 · 1.0 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 0%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Sigma Olomouc 01 draws1 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 0–2 · 1.0 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 0%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Sigma Olomouc 01 draws1 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 0–2 · 1.0 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 0%

Recent meetings

  • L FSV Mainz 05 2–0 Sigma Olomouc UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 2/2
  • D Sigma Olomouc 0–0 FSV Mainz 05 UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 1/2
MetricSigma Olomouc all · 10Sigma Olomouc at home · 5FSV Mainz 05 all · 12FSV Mainz 05 away · 6
Results
Matches105126
Points per game1.201.201.920.83
W / D / L3 / 3 / 41 / 3 / 17 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Goals for / match1.001.001.330.50
Goals against / match1.301.000.831.33
Clean sheets10%20%50%33%
Failed to score30%20%25%50%
Both teams scored70%80%33%33%
Over 2.550%40%33%33%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.441.551.520.91
xG against / match1.201.261.341.83
xG difference0.250.280.19-0.92
Finishing vs xG-0.44-0.55-0.19-0.41
xPts / match1.481.491.520.92
Points vs xPts-0.28-0.290.40-0.09
Game state
Scored first50%40%67%50%
PPG when scoring first2.002.002.381.33
PPG when conceding first0.250.501.000.00
Came back from behind20%50%25%0%
Leads held60%50%78%33%
Minutes leading25%17%31%8%
Minutes level51%63%56%76%
Minutes trailing24%20%13%16%
First goal (min)39583943
First goal conceded (min)36443844
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half30%60%44%33%
Goals conceded in 2nd half38%20%40%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.200.400.170.00
Late goals against0.300.200.080.17
Style
Possession44%46%49%49%
Shots13.115.213.610.7
On target3.23.44.02.5
Shot conversion8%7%10%5%
Shots inside box68%67%71%66%
Big chances created1.71.62.31.0
Corners3.23.85.65.0
xG from set plays28%17%31%32%
Goals from headers30%60%19%0%
Pressure index9.111.717.416.5
Dominant minutes38.444.859.257.0
Pass accuracy74%75%79%80%
Fouls17.016.013.212.3
Cards2.502.002.252.83

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Sigma Olomouc

0–15'30
16–30'25
31–45'23
46–60'11
61–75'01
76–90'23

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'10
16–30'52
31–45'34
46–60'30
61–75'23
76–90'21

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Sigma Olomouc

No pressure profile yet.

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113
Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323
10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032
4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302
As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

Sigma Olomouc

Current: winless 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-18 80%1.381.131.381.521.14
4-3-31 10%0.01.02.01.62.23
3-4-2-11 10%1.00.00.00.680.59

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-35 42%1.81.40.81.731.01
3-5-24 33%1.751.01.01.121.3
5-3-21 8%1.01.01.01.732.8
3-5-1-11 8%3.02.00.02.00.77
3-4-2-11 8%3.02.01.01.462.19

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

4.75Home 20% P 19%3.5Draw 27% P 27%1.72Away 54% P 54%

Double Chance

2.1Sigma Olomouc or Draw 22% P 23%1.28Sigma Olomouc or Mainz 37% P 36%1.16Draw or Mainz 41% P 40%

Draw No Bet

3.51 27%1.282 73%

Both Teams To Score

2.1Yes 44% P 46%1.66No 56% P 54%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.15Over 44% P 44%1.66Under 56% P 56%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 17.5–20% · away 52.5–55% · 176 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home19%19%24%+5.3
Draw27%27%26%-1.3
Away54%54%50%-4.0

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 44%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes46%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,474 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.544%44%43%-1.2

Mohammad Al Emara

Career
18 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
4.89 (4.67 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
22.8 · 4.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.44
Cards to home side
40%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 12 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.334.92+0.3372
Fouls / match21.323.8-0.95
Fouls per card3.84.8-1.19 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.50.29+1.2988
Time added6.86.5+0.1051
First card
33' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 45% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.67

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-29 30 191 33'5
2025-12-18 · FSV Mainz 05 30 201 9'9
2025-10-23 40 181 62'13
2025-10-02 30 260 35'4
2025-08-21 70 221 7'10
2025-08-14 40 300 23'4