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Europa Conference League · 8th Finals AEK Athens went through · After Full Time

Momentum

CeljeAEK Athens
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
8th Finals
Leg
1/2

Venue

Stadium
Stadion Z'dežele, Celje
Capacity
13,059
Surface
grass
Attendance
6,020

Teams

Coaches
Ivan Mayeuski · Marko Nikolić
Position
2 · 1
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-4-2

Referee

Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
8.8° (feels 8.8°)
Wind
0.9
Humidity
83%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Strasbourg 6510 1156 16 DWWWW
2 Raków Częstochowa 6420 927 14 DDWWW
3 AEK Athens 6411 1477 13 WDWWW
4 Sparta Praha 6411 1037 13 LDWWW
5 Rayo Vallecano 6411 1376 13 DWLWW
6 Shakhtar Donetsk 6411 1055 13 LWWWD
7 FSV Mainz 05 6411 734 13 WWLDW
8 AEK Larnaca 6330 716 12 WDDDW
9 Lausanne Sport 6321 633 11 WDLDW
10 Crystal Palace 6312 1165 10 LWLWD
11 Lech Poznań 6312 1284 10 LLWDW
12 Samsunspor 6312 1064 10 WWDLL
13 Celje 6312 871 10 WWLLD
14 AZ Alkmaar 6312 770 10 WLWWD
15 Fiorentina 6303 853 9 WLLWL
16 Rijeka 6231 523 9 WDDWD
17 Jagiellonia Białystok 6231 541 9 DDWLD
18 Omonia Nicosia 6222 541 8 DDWWL
19 Noah 6222 67-1 8 DLDWL
20 Drita 6222 48-4 8 DWWLL
21 KuPS 6141 651 7 DWLDD
22 Skendija 79 6213 45-1 7 WDLWL
23 Zrinjski 6213 810-2 7 LLWLD
24 Sigma Olomouc 6213 79-2 7 DWWLL
25 Universitatea Craiova 6213 68-2 7 DWWLL
26 Lincoln Red Imps 6213 715-8 7 WDLWL
27 Dynamo Kyiv 6204 990 6 LWLLW
28 Legia Warszawa 6204 880 6 WLLLW
29 Slovan Bratislava 6204 59-4 6 LLWLW
30 Breidablik 6123 611-5 5 DLDWL
31 Shamrock Rovers 6114 713-6 4 LDLLW
32 Häcken 6033 58-3 3 DLLDL
33 Hamrun Spartans 6105 411-7 3 LLWLL
34 Shelbourne 6024 07-7 2 LLLLD
35 Aberdeen 6024 314-11 2 LDDLL
36 SK Rapid 6015 314-11 1 LLLLD
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Celje

LLDWW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 9 · xG 9.3–8.49 · xPts 7.3

  • W H Drita 3–2 xG 2.77–1.47 UEFA ECL
  • W A Drita 3–2 xG 2.44–1.97 UEFA ECL
  • D H Shelbourne 0–0 xG 1.74–1.34 UEFA ECL
  • L A Rijeka 0–3 xG 0.99–1.77 UEFA ECL
  • L A Sigma Olomouc 1–2 xG 1.37–1.95 UEFA ECL

AEK Athens

WWW 3W 0D 0L · 9 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 3 · xG 5.89–4.2 · xPts 5.05

  • W H Universitatea Craiova 3–2 xG 3.14–1.73 UEFA ECL
  • W A Samsunspor 2–1 xG 1.19–1.23 UEFA ECL
  • W A Fiorentina 1–0 xG 1.55–1.24 UEFA ECL

All meetings · 3 matches since 2025

Celje 20 draws1 AEK Athens

Goals 5–5 · 3.33 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 67%

Last 10 · 3 matches

Celje 20 draws1 AEK Athens

Goals 5–5 · 3.33 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 67%

Last 5 · 3 matches

Celje 20 draws1 AEK Athens

Goals 5–5 · 3.33 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 67%

Recent meetings

  • W AEK Athens 0–2 Celje UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 2/2
  • L Celje 0–4 AEK Athens UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 1/2
  • W Celje 3–1 AEK Athens UEFA ECL · League Stage
MetricCelje all · 14Celje at home · 7AEK Athens all · 16AEK Athens away · 8
Results
Matches147168
Points per game2.001.861.941.50
W / D / L9 / 1 / 44 / 1 / 29 / 4 / 33 / 3 / 2
Goals for / match1.861.571.881.38
Goals against / match1.361.711.061.25
Clean sheets43%29%38%38%
Failed to score21%29%19%25%
Both teams scored43%57%50%50%
Over 2.564%71%56%62%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.821.712.201.57
xG against / match1.821.981.311.56
xG difference0.00-0.280.890.01
Finishing vs xG0.10-0.04-0.20-0.07
xPts / match1.421.311.751.34
Points vs xPts0.420.350.170.33
Game state
Scored first50%29%56%50%
PPG when scoring first3.003.002.441.75
PPG when conceding first1.001.501.331.33
Came back from behind33%50%57%50%
Leads held90%80%82%60%
Minutes leading42%32%34%30%
Minutes level35%38%37%39%
Minutes trailing23%30%29%31%
First goal (min)27313830
First goal conceded (min)24132616
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half35%46%54%36%
Goals conceded in 2nd half53%42%35%30%
Late goals for (76'+)0.360.290.440.00
Late goals against0.210.290.060.13
Style
Possession59%61%51%50%
Shots13.716.116.412.5
On target5.45.75.94.8
Shot conversion14%10%11%11%
Shots inside box61%57%72%76%
Big chances created3.02.24.33.0
Corners4.15.95.84.1
xG from set plays34%29%30%25%
Goals from headers5%0%21%12%
Pressure index16.621.024.214.3
Dominant minutes53.759.155.544.0
Pass accuracy86%87%85%85%
Fouls12.613.610.911.3
Cards2.142.142.312.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Celje

0–15'34
16–30'62
31–45'83
46–60'24
61–75'23
76–90'53

AEK Athens

0–15'63
16–30'24
31–45'54
46–60'73
61–75'32
76–90'51

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Celje · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.05) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.33

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.056
Early press (0-15, level)-0.146
Late push (76+, level)-0.335

Game state

When ahead-0.552
When level-0.156
When behind+0.245
10 min after conceding+0.145
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home+0.083
Away-0.173
4+ days rest-0.056

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents-0.072
As favourite+0.043
As underdog-0.292

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.036
Conceded when ahead-0.152
Conceded late (76+)-0.016

Ahead vs level -0.40 · Behind vs level +0.39

AEK Athens · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 4+ days rest +0.10

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.103
Early press (0-15, level)-0.033

Game state

When ahead+0.212
When level+0.013
10 min after scoring+1.102

Situations

At home+0.182
4+ days rest+0.103

Opposition

As favourite+0.182

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.183
Conceded when ahead-0.232
Conceded late (76+)-0.442

Ahead vs level +0.19

Celje

Current: winless 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-35 36%2.41.81.41.282.04
3-4-2-13 21%3.03.330.332.681.42
3-4-32 14%1.51.52.01.82.9
4-1-4-12 14%0.50.51.01.551.64
3-4-1-21 7%3.03.02.02.771.47

AEK Athens

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · clean sheets 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-25 31%2.01.81.02.221.42
4-2-3-14 25%1.752.250.752.680.82
4-4-1-13 19%2.02.02.01.741.84
4-3-2-11 6%1.00.00.0
4-3-1-21 6%1.02.02.0

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

4.33Home 22% P 21%3.9Draw 24% P 24%1.72Away 54% P 55%

Double Chance

2.25NK Celje or Draw 21% P 23%1.22NK Celje or AEK Athens 39% P 38%1.16Draw or AEK Athens 41% P 39%

Draw No Bet

3.41 28%1.32 72%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58% P 57%2.2No 42% P 43%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 56% P 57%2.15Under 44% P 43%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 20–22.5% · away 52.5–55% · 365 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home21%21%23%+1.8
Draw24%25%25%-0.3
Away55%54%52%-1.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes57%56%57%+1.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.557%56%56%-0.2

Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Career
221 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
5.43 (5.18 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
29.9 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.34
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 11 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.04.92-0.0551
Fouls / match27.123.8+1.39
Fouls per card5.44.8+0.64 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.270.29-0.1939
Time added8.06.5+1.3892
First card
30' on average
Card timing
21% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.5

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-08 30 321 45'10
2026-02-26 60 220 12'9
2026-02-15 40 190 34'9
2026-02-09 80 251 45'15
2026-02-01 50 240 36'9
2026-01-22 90 280 44'8
2026-01-17 40 221 57'6
2025-12-27 80 340 18'13
2025-12-07 30 190 39'7
2025-11-05 20 250 6'6