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Europa Conference League · 8th Finals Rayo Vallecano went through · After Full Time

Momentum

SamsunsporRAY
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
8th Finals
Leg
1/2

Venue

Stadium
Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs, Samsun
Capacity
34,403
Surface
grass
Attendance
18,095

Teams

Coaches
Thorsten Fink · Iñigo Pérez
Position
1 · 2
Formation
4-1-4-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Marian Alexandru Barbu

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
6.6° (feels 6.6°)
Wind
0.5
Humidity
81%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Strasbourg 6510 1156 16 DWWWW
2 Raków Częstochowa 6420 927 14 DDWWW
3 AEK Athens 6411 1477 13 WDWWW
4 Sparta Praha 6411 1037 13 LDWWW
5 Rayo Vallecano 6411 1376 13 DWLWW
6 Shakhtar Donetsk 6411 1055 13 LWWWD
7 FSV Mainz 05 6411 734 13 WWLDW
8 AEK Larnaca 6330 716 12 WDDDW
9 Lausanne Sport 6321 633 11 WDLDW
10 Crystal Palace 6312 1165 10 LWLWD
11 Lech Poznań 6312 1284 10 LLWDW
12 Samsunspor 6312 1064 10 WWDLL
13 Celje 6312 871 10 WWLLD
14 AZ Alkmaar 6312 770 10 WLWWD
15 Fiorentina 6303 853 9 WLLWL
16 Rijeka 6231 523 9 WDDWD
17 Jagiellonia Białystok 6231 541 9 DDWLD
18 Omonia Nicosia 6222 541 8 DDWWL
19 Noah 6222 67-1 8 DLDWL
20 Drita 6222 48-4 8 DWWLL
21 KuPS 6141 651 7 DWLDD
22 Skendija 79 6213 45-1 7 WDLWL
23 Zrinjski 6213 810-2 7 LLWLD
24 Sigma Olomouc 6213 79-2 7 DWWLL
25 Universitatea Craiova 6213 68-2 7 DWWLL
26 Lincoln Red Imps 6213 715-8 7 WDLWL
27 Dynamo Kyiv 6204 990 6 LWLLW
28 Legia Warszawa 6204 880 6 WLLLW
29 Slovan Bratislava 6204 59-4 6 LLWLW
30 Breidablik 6123 611-5 5 DLDWL
31 Shamrock Rovers 6114 713-6 4 LDLLW
32 Häcken 6033 58-3 3 DLLDL
33 Hamrun Spartans 6105 411-7 3 LLWLL
34 Shelbourne 6024 07-7 2 LLLLD
35 Aberdeen 6024 314-11 2 LDDLL
36 SK Rapid 6015 314-11 1 LLLLD
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Samsunspor

DLLWW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 6 · xG 9.31–5.7 · xPts 8.8

  • W H Skendija 79 4–0 xG 3.26–0.76 UEFA ECL
  • W A Skendija 79 1–0 xG 2.41–0.3 UEFA ECL
  • L A FSV Mainz 05 0–2 xG 0.77–2.0 UEFA ECL
  • L H AEK Athens 1–2 xG 1.23–1.19 UEFA ECL
  • D A Breidablik 2–2 xG 1.64–1.44 UEFA ECL

Rayo Vallecano

WDDWD 2W 3D 0L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 9 GA 3 · xG 7.59–5.52 · xPts 7.92

  • D A Sevilla 1–1 xG 0.38–1.02 ESP PL
  • W H Real Oviedo 3–0 xG 2.64–0.86 ESP PL
  • D H Athletic Club 1–1 xG 1.26–0.87 ESP PL
  • D A Real Betis 1–1 xG 1.23–1.77 ESP PL
  • W H Atlético de Madrid 3–0 xG 2.08–0.99 ESP PL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2026

Samsunspor 10 draws1 Rayo Vallecano

Goals 2–3 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Samsunspor 10 draws1 Rayo Vallecano

Goals 2–3 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Samsunspor 10 draws1 Rayo Vallecano

Goals 2–3 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • W Rayo Vallecano 0–1 Samsunspor UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 2/2
  • L Samsunspor 1–3 Rayo Vallecano UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 1/2
MetricSamsunspor all · 10Samsunspor at home · 5Rayo Vallecano all · 15Rayo Vallecano away · 8
Results
Matches105158
Points per game1.901.802.071.63
W / D / L6 / 1 / 33 / 0 / 210 / 1 / 44 / 1 / 3
Goals for / match1.702.401.801.38
Goals against / match0.901.000.871.25
Clean sheets60%60%47%25%
Failed to score10%0%13%12%
Both teams scored30%40%40%62%
Over 2.560%100%60%62%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.661.951.601.45
xG against / match1.010.681.031.41
xG difference0.641.260.570.04
Finishing vs xG0.040.450.20-0.07
xPts / match1.742.111.771.44
Points vs xPts0.16-0.310.300.19
Game state
Scored first70%80%73%75%
PPG when scoring first2.572.252.552.17
PPG when conceding first0.330.000.750.00
Came back from behind25%0%33%25%
Leads held75%75%83%67%
Minutes leading42%54%37%33%
Minutes level42%27%42%41%
Minutes trailing16%18%21%26%
First goal (min)30203734
First goal conceded (min)29343736
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half59%58%59%46%
Goals conceded in 2nd half56%60%46%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.400.600.530.38
Late goals against0.100.200.000.00
Style
Possession56%57%56%52%
Shots13.215.016.414.1
On target5.06.25.64.8
Shot conversion13%16%11%10%
Shots inside box64%69%58%55%
Big chances created2.93.02.92.8
Corners3.84.65.84.9
xG from set plays23%24%25%26%
Goals from headers6%8%4%0%
Pressure index14.115.220.716.6
Dominant minutes52.359.062.551.0
Pass accuracy82%83%81%80%
Fouls11.712.214.215.6
Cards2.301.002.873.63

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Samsunspor

0–15'32
16–30'30
31–45'12
46–60'32
61–75'32
76–90'41

Rayo Vallecano

0–15'42
16–30'21
31–45'54
46–60'35
61–75'51
76–90'80

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Samsunspor

No pressure profile yet.

Rayo Vallecano · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.67

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.076
Early press (0-15, level)+0.306
Late push (76+, level)-0.252
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.553

Game state

When ahead-0.135
When level+0.036
When behind-0.064
10 min after conceding-0.376
10 min after scoring+0.676

Situations

Against ten men+0.352
At home-0.083
Away-0.043
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.052
v mid-tier opponents-0.103
Evenly matched-0.103
As underdog-0.052

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.246
Conceded when ahead+0.155
Conceded late (76+)+0.396

Congested vs rested -0.10 · Ahead vs level -0.17 · Behind vs level -0.10

Samsunspor

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 4 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-1-4-17 70%1.431.571.291.411.09
4-2-3-11 10%3.01.00.02.410.3
4-4-21 10%3.04.00.03.260.76
3-5-21 10%3.01.00.01.051.45

Rayo Vallecano

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 8

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-110 67%1.91.50.91.561.17
4-3-35 33%2.42.40.81.680.75

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.8Home 25% P 24%3.1Draw 30% P 31%2.1Away 45% P 45%

Double Chance

1.66Samsunspor or Draw 28% P 27%1.36Samsunspor or Rayo Vallecano 35% P 35%1.28Draw or Rayo Vallecano 37% P 38%

Draw No Bet

2.621 35%1.442 65%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 46% P 45%1.72No 54% P 55%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.4Over 39% P 38%1.53Under 61% P 62%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 20–30% · away 40–50% · 3,119 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home24%27%26%-1.1
Draw31%28%28%-0.4
Away45%45%47%+1.5

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 49%

Both teams to score · yes 42.5–45% · 1,287 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes45%44%48%+4.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 37.5–40% · 1,310 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.538%39%39%+0.7

Marian Alexandru Barbu

Career
21 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
3.67 (3.62 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
26.1 · 6.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.43
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 10 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.44.92-0.7522
Fouls / match26.923.8+1.32
Fouls per card6.74.8+2.10 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.30.29-0.0245
Time added7.36.5+0.6372
First card
46' on average
Card timing
5% in first 30' · 42% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-11 40 331 30'6
2025-09-17 50 241 45'12
2025-08-21 31 9
2025-08-12 10 210 86'9