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Europa Conference League · 8th Finals Fiorentina went through · After Full Time

Momentum

FiorentinaRAK
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

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Competition

Stage
8th Finals
Leg
1/2

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze
Capacity
43,147
Surface
grass
Attendance
7,852

Teams

Coaches
Paolo Vanoli · Łukasz Tomczyk
Position
1 · 2
Formation
4-5-1 · 3-4-3

Referee

Georgi Kabakov

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
10.4° (feels 9.6°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
80%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Strasbourg 6510 1156 16 DWWWW
2 Raków Częstochowa 6420 927 14 DDWWW
3 AEK Athens 6411 1477 13 WDWWW
4 Sparta Praha 6411 1037 13 LDWWW
5 Rayo Vallecano 6411 1376 13 DWLWW
6 Shakhtar Donetsk 6411 1055 13 LWWWD
7 FSV Mainz 05 6411 734 13 WWLDW
8 AEK Larnaca 6330 716 12 WDDDW
9 Lausanne Sport 6321 633 11 WDLDW
10 Crystal Palace 6312 1165 10 LWLWD
11 Lech Poznań 6312 1284 10 LLWDW
12 Samsunspor 6312 1064 10 WWDLL
13 Celje 6312 871 10 WWLLD
14 AZ Alkmaar 6312 770 10 WLWWD
15 Fiorentina 6303 853 9 WLLWL
16 Rijeka 6231 523 9 WDDWD
17 Jagiellonia Białystok 6231 541 9 DDWLD
18 Omonia Nicosia 6222 541 8 DDWWL
19 Noah 6222 67-1 8 DLDWL
20 Drita 6222 48-4 8 DWWLL
21 KuPS 6141 651 7 DWLDD
22 Skendija 79 6213 45-1 7 WDLWL
23 Zrinjski 6213 810-2 7 LLWLD
24 Sigma Olomouc 6213 79-2 7 DWWLL
25 Universitatea Craiova 6213 68-2 7 DWWLL
26 Lincoln Red Imps 6213 715-8 7 WDLWL
27 Dynamo Kyiv 6204 990 6 LWLLW
28 Legia Warszawa 6204 880 6 WLLLW
29 Slovan Bratislava 6204 59-4 6 LLWLW
30 Breidablik 6123 611-5 5 DLDWL
31 Shamrock Rovers 6114 713-6 4 LDLLW
32 Häcken 6033 58-3 3 DLLDL
33 Hamrun Spartans 6105 411-7 3 LLWLL
34 Shelbourne 6024 07-7 2 LLLLD
35 Aberdeen 6024 314-11 2 LDDLL
36 SK Rapid 6015 314-11 1 LLLLD
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Fiorentina

WWLLD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 7.39–5.03 · xPts 8.55

  • D H Parma 0–0 xG 1.5–0.37 ITA SA
  • L A Udinese 0–3 xG 0.79–1.61 ITA SA
  • L H Jagiellonia Białystok 2–4 aet xG 1.84–1.98 UEFA ECL
  • W H Pisa 1–0 xG 0.91–0.32 ITA SA
  • W A Jagiellonia Białystok 3–0 xG 2.35–0.76 UEFA ECL

Raków Częstochowa

WWW 3W 0D 0L · 9 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 1 · xG 5.36–2.76 · xPts 5.85

  • W A Omonia Nicosia 1–0 xG 1.41–1.04 UEFA ECL
  • W H Zrinjski 1–0 xG 1.73–0.73 UEFA ECL
  • W H SK Rapid 4–1 xG 2.23–0.99 UEFA ECL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2026

Fiorentina 20 draws0 Raków Częstochowa

Goals 4–2 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Fiorentina 20 draws0 Raków Częstochowa

Goals 4–2 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Fiorentina 20 draws0 Raków Częstochowa

Goals 4–2 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W Raków Częstochowa 1–2 Fiorentina neutral UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 2/2
  • W Fiorentina 2–1 Raków Częstochowa UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 1/2
MetricFiorentina all · 14Fiorentina at home · 7Raków Częstochowa all · 14Raków Częstochowa away · 7
Results
Matches147147
Points per game1.932.142.072.00
W / D / L9 / 0 / 55 / 0 / 29 / 2 / 34 / 2 / 1
Goals for / match1.791.861.571.43
Goals against / match1.211.430.640.71
Clean sheets29%14%50%43%
Failed to score21%14%14%14%
Both teams scored50%71%43%57%
Over 2.579%71%43%43%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.912.061.491.31
xG against / match1.280.990.991.15
xG difference0.631.070.500.15
Finishing vs xG-0.13-0.20-0.16-0.14
xPts / match1.792.021.741.48
Points vs xPts0.140.120.180.35
Game state
Scored first43%29%71%57%
PPG when scoring first2.503.002.402.25
PPG when conceding first1.501.801.332.00
Came back from behind44%60%40%67%
Leads held90%100%82%80%
Minutes leading32%23%37%29%
Minutes level40%39%59%66%
Minutes trailing29%38%5%5%
First goal (min)43544447
First goal conceded (min)39326054
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half70%73%68%70%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%33%89%80%
Late goals for (76'+)0.711.000.290.43
Late goals against0.210.140.210.29
Style
Possession51%55%50%47%
Shots15.116.313.110.7
On target5.35.95.04.9
Shot conversion12%11%12%13%
Shots inside box71%71%58%54%
Big chances created3.13.42.32.3
Corners5.26.64.02.3
xG from set plays38%45%44%53%
Goals from headers9%8%20%33%
Pressure index13.918.413.78.3
Dominant minutes55.363.951.940.6
Pass accuracy82%84%80%78%
Fouls12.613.410.912.4
Cards2.572.861.141.86

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Fiorentina

0–15'22
16–30'43
31–45'13
46–60'35
61–75'51
76–90'82

Raków Częstochowa

0–15'11
16–30'20
31–45'40
46–60'91
61–75'24
76–90'43

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Fiorentina · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: 10 min after conceding +0.33

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.174
Early press (0-15, level)+0.094

Game state

When ahead+0.082
When level+0.224
When behind+0.194
10 min after conceding+0.334
10 min after scoring+0.492

Situations

At home+0.192
Away+0.152
4+ days rest+0.174

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.422
As favourite+0.192

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.202
Conceded late (76+)+0.192

Ahead vs level -0.14 · Behind vs level -0.03

Raków Częstochowa · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.47

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.036
Early press (0-15, level)+0.386
Late push (76+, level)+0.324
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.172

Game state

When ahead-0.253
When level+0.176
When behind-0.003
10 min after conceding-0.093
10 min after scoring+0.475

Situations

Against ten men-0.562
At home+0.143
Away-0.093
4+ days rest+0.036

Opposition

As favourite+0.273
As underdog-0.212

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.076
Conceded when ahead+0.063
Conceded late (76+)-0.245

Ahead vs level -0.41 · Behind vs level -0.17

Fiorentina

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-25 36%1.81.40.61.721.02
3-4-2-13 21%3.02.671.02.31.15
4-4-22 14%1.52.52.02.091.37
4-2-3-11 7%3.02.01.02.061.45
3-1-4-21 7%0.01.02.02.191.46

Raków Częstochowa

Current: winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-311 79%2.271.550.551.530.86
3-4-2-12 14%1.52.51.51.841.52
5-3-21 7%1.00.00.00.451.01

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.85Home 51% P 53%3.6Draw 26% P 26%4.0Away 23% P 21%

Double Chance

1.22Fiorentina or Draw 39% P 40%1.3Fiorentina or Rakow Czestochowa 36% P 37%1.9Draw or Rakow Czestochowa 25% P 23%

Draw No Bet

1.361 69%3.02 31%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 50%1.83No 50% P 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.95Over 49% P 47%1.85Under 51% P 53%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 32%2.759 - 11 32%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 20–22.5% · 664 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home53%54%56%+2.6
Draw26%25%27%+1.4
Away21%21%17%-4.1

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 54%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes50%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Georgi Kabakov

Career
60 matches · 14 seasons
Cards / match
5.13 (4.93 yellow · 0.03 red)
Fouls / match
22.7 · 4.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 5 matches)

Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 6.0 cards, 19.6 fouls per match.

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-22 20 262 49'6
2025-11-27 30 230 48'9
2025-10-23 40 240 41'5
2025-08-21 81 191 19'6
2025-08-07 40 191 7'7
2025-07-24 40 171 79'10