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Europa Conference League · 8th Finals Shakhtar Donetsk went through · After Full Time

Momentum

Lech PoznańSHK
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
8th Finals
Leg
1/2

Venue

Attendance
36,290

Teams

Coaches
Niels Frederiksen · Arda Turan
Position
1 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Rohit Saggi

Where to watch · 205

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Strasbourg 6510 1156 16 DWWWW
2 Raków Częstochowa 6420 927 14 DDWWW
3 AEK Athens 6411 1477 13 WDWWW
4 Sparta Praha 6411 1037 13 LDWWW
5 Rayo Vallecano 6411 1376 13 DWLWW
6 Shakhtar Donetsk 6411 1055 13 LWWWD
7 FSV Mainz 05 6411 734 13 WWLDW
8 AEK Larnaca 6330 716 12 WDDDW
9 Lausanne Sport 6321 633 11 WDLDW
10 Crystal Palace 6312 1165 10 LWLWD
11 Lech Poznań 6312 1284 10 LLWDW
12 Samsunspor 6312 1064 10 WWDLL
13 Celje 6312 871 10 WWLLD
14 AZ Alkmaar 6312 770 10 WLWWD
15 Fiorentina 6303 853 9 WLLWL
16 Rijeka 6231 523 9 WDDWD
17 Jagiellonia Białystok 6231 541 9 DDWLD
18 Omonia Nicosia 6222 541 8 DDWWL
19 Noah 6222 67-1 8 DLDWL
20 Drita 6222 48-4 8 DWWLL
21 KuPS 6141 651 7 DWLDD
22 Skendija 79 6213 45-1 7 WDLWL
23 Zrinjski 6213 810-2 7 LLWLD
24 Sigma Olomouc 6213 79-2 7 DWWLL
25 Universitatea Craiova 6213 68-2 7 DWWLL
26 Lincoln Red Imps 6213 715-8 7 WDLWL
27 Dynamo Kyiv 6204 990 6 LWLLW
28 Legia Warszawa 6204 880 6 WLLLW
29 Slovan Bratislava 6204 59-4 6 LLWLW
30 Breidablik 6123 611-5 5 DLDWL
31 Shamrock Rovers 6114 713-6 4 LDLLW
32 Häcken 6033 58-3 3 DLLDL
33 Hamrun Spartans 6105 411-7 3 LLWLL
34 Shelbourne 6024 07-7 2 LLLLD
35 Aberdeen 6024 314-11 2 LDDLL
36 SK Rapid 6015 314-11 1 LLLLD
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Lech Poznań

WDWWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 2 · xG 11.48–5.51 · xPts 10.23

  • W H KuPS 1–0 xG 2.46–0.88 UEFA ECL
  • W A KuPS 2–0 xG 2.94–0.25 UEFA ECL
  • W A Sigma Olomouc 2–1 xG 2.23–1.6 UEFA ECL
  • D H FSV Mainz 05 1–1 xG 2.8–1.73 UEFA ECL
  • W H Lausanne Sport 2–0 xG 1.05–1.04 UEFA ECL

Shakhtar Donetsk

WWD 2W 1D 0L · 7 pts (2.33 ppg) · GF 4 GA 1 · xG 5.59–1.21 · xPts 6.62

  • D H Rijeka 0–0 xG 0.55–0.37 UEFA ECL
  • W A Hamrun Spartans 2–0 xG 2.82–0.2 UEFA ECL
  • W A Shamrock Rovers 2–1 xG 2.23–0.64 UEFA ECL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2026

Lech Poznań 10 draws1 Shakhtar Donetsk

Goals 3–4 · 3.5 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Lech Poznań 10 draws1 Shakhtar Donetsk

Goals 3–4 · 3.5 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Lech Poznań 10 draws1 Shakhtar Donetsk

Goals 3–4 · 3.5 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W Shakhtar Donetsk 1–2 Lech Poznań neutral UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 2/2
  • L Lech Poznań 1–3 Shakhtar Donetsk UEFA ECL · 8th Finals · leg 1/2
MetricLech Poznań all · 10Lech Poznań at home · 5Shakhtar Donetsk all · 14Shakhtar Donetsk away · 7
Results
Matches105147
Points per game1.902.001.712.29
W / D / L6 / 1 / 33 / 1 / 17 / 3 / 45 / 1 / 1
Goals for / match1.801.801.712.14
Goals against / match1.201.001.211.29
Clean sheets30%40%29%14%
Failed to score0%0%7%0%
Both teams scored70%60%71%86%
Over 2.560%40%71%86%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.092.131.552.00
xG against / match1.251.230.981.12
xG difference0.850.890.570.88
Finishing vs xG-0.29-0.330.160.15
xPts / match1.881.871.721.90
Points vs xPts0.020.13-0.010.39
Game state
Scored first70%60%43%57%
PPG when scoring first2.573.002.672.50
PPG when conceding first0.330.501.002.00
Came back from behind25%50%50%75%
Leads held86%100%88%83%
Minutes leading46%28%22%32%
Minutes level42%57%50%54%
Minutes trailing13%15%28%15%
First goal (min)40515146
First goal conceded (min)53433552
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half33%56%78%71%
Goals conceded in 2nd half75%60%59%78%
Late goals for (76'+)0.300.400.430.57
Late goals against0.500.200.290.29
Style
Possession54%55%63%62%
Shots14.913.814.616.9
On target5.95.65.06.6
Shot conversion12%13%12%13%
Shots inside box67%67%62%64%
Big chances created3.33.22.43.3
Corners3.82.65.64.7
xG from set plays42%31%19%14%
Goals from headers11%0%14%14%
Pressure index15.014.534.846.0
Dominant minutes52.947.874.278.6
Pass accuracy82%83%88%87%
Fouls9.010.69.410.0
Cards1.602.002.362.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Lech Poznań

0–15'40
16–30'11
31–45'72
46–60'02
61–75'32
76–90'35

Shakhtar Donetsk

0–15'04
16–30'22
31–45'31
46–60'53
61–75'83
76–90'54

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Lech Poznań · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.26) · stands out: at home +0.44

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.267
Early press (0-15, level)+0.007
Late push (76+, level)+0.202

Game state

When ahead+0.155
When level+0.317
When behind+0.283
10 min after conceding-0.094
10 min after scoring+0.395

Situations

At home+0.443
Away+0.124
4+ days rest+0.267

Opposition

As favourite+0.244
Evenly matched+0.242

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.287
Conceded when ahead-0.515
Conceded late (76+)-0.432

Ahead vs level -0.16 · Behind vs level -0.03

Shakhtar Donetsk

No pressure profile yet.

Lech Poznań

Current: winless 2 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-17 70%1.431.861.571.91.39
4-1-4-12 20%3.01.50.02.70.57
4-4-21 10%3.02.01.02.231.6

Shakhtar Donetsk

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 7 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-1-4-113 93%1.621.621.231.530.96
4-3-31 7%3.03.01.01.781.29

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.62Home 36% P 36%3.4Draw 28% P 27%2.55Away 37% P 37%

Double Chance

1.4Lech Poznan or Draw 33% P 32%1.3Lech Poznan or Shakhtar Donetsk 36% P 36%1.5Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk 31% P 32%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54% P 57%2.0No 46% P 43%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.95Over 49% P 51%1.85Under 51% P 49%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 35–37.5% · 584 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home36%36%35%-0.6
Draw27%28%28%+0.2
Away37%36%36%+0.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes57%56%57%+1.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Rohit Saggi

Career
33 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
4.94 (4.67 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
25.7 · 5.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.21
Cards to home side
40%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 11 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.184.92+0.1665
Fouls / match25.923.8+0.91
Fouls per card5.04.8+0.18 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.270.29-0.1939
Time added7.06.5+0.3167
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 54% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.33

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-19 30 261 10'8
2026-01-29 10 210 35'4
2025-12-11 20 290 64'6
2025-10-23 10 230 88'6
2025-08-28 60 270 19'9
2025-08-14 40 370 10'8