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FA Cup · 5th Round

Momentum

NEWMCI
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
5th Round

Venue

Stadium
St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
Capacity
52,409
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Eddie Howe · Pep Guardiola
Position
1 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Samuel Barrott

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
4.7° (feels 3.2°)
Wind
1.8
Humidity
83%

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No table for this competition stage.

Newcastle United

WLWLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 14 GA 9 · xG 11.7–7.51 · xPts 8.51

  • W H Manchester United 2–1 xG 2.67–1.31 UK PL
  • L H Everton 2–3 xG 1.22–2.07 UK PL
  • W H Qarabağ 3–2 xG 2.57–1.69 UEFA CL
  • L A Manchester City 1–2 xG 0.85–1.86 UK PL
  • W A Qarabağ 6–1 xG 4.39–0.58 UEFA CL

Manchester City

WWWWD 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 10 GA 3 · xG 10.64–6.09 · xPts 9.72

  • D H Nottingham Forest 2–2 xG 2.64–1.04 UK PL
  • W A Leeds United 1–0 xG 2.2–1.99 UK PL
  • W H Newcastle United 2–1 xG 1.86–0.85 UK PL
  • W H Salford City 2–0 xG 2.34–0.44 UK FA Cup
  • W H Fulham 3–0 xG 1.59–1.77 UK PL

All meetings · 49 matches since 2000

Newcastle United 77 draws35 Manchester City

Goals 41–110 · 3.08 per match · BTTS 45% · over 2.5 57%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Newcastle United 12 draws7 Manchester City

Goals 10–22 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Newcastle United 11 draws3 Manchester City

Goals 5–11 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L Newcastle United 1–3 Manchester City UK FA Cup · 5th Round
  • L Manchester City 2–1 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Newcastle United 2–1 Manchester City UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Manchester City 4–0 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Newcastle United 1–1 Manchester City UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Manchester City 2–0 Newcastle United UK FA Cup · Quarter-finals
  • L Newcastle United 2–3 Manchester City UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Manchester City 1–0 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Manchester City 2–0 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Newcastle United 3–3 Manchester City UK PL · Regular Season
MetricNewcastle United all · 3Newcastle United at home · 2Manchester City all · 6Manchester City away · 2
Results
Matches6
Points per game3.00
W / D / L6 / 0 / 0
Goals for / match3.67
Goals against / match0.50
Clean sheets50%
Failed to score0%
Both teams scored50%
Over 2.567%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.22
xG against / match0.81
xG difference1.41
Finishing vs xG1.45
xPts / match2.22
Points vs xPts0.78
Game state
Scored first67%
PPG when scoring first3.00
PPG when conceding first3.00
Came back from behind100%
Leads held100%
Minutes leading51%
Minutes level44%
Minutes trailing4%
First goal (min)42
First goal conceded (min)62
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half64%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%
Late goals for (76'+)1.00
Late goals against0.33
Style
Possession65%
Shots17.8
On target6.5
Shot conversion21%
Shots inside box69%
Big chances created3.5
Corners6.8
xG from set plays24%
Goals from headers9%
Pressure index26.5
Dominant minutes66.3
Pass accuracy89%
Fouls11.5
Cards0.67

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Manchester City

0–15'20
16–30'11
31–45'50
46–60'50
61–75'30
76–90'62

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Newcastle United · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.19) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.28

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.194
Early press (0-15, level)+0.074
Late push (76+, level)-0.142

Game state

When ahead-0.342
When level-0.014
When behind-0.222
10 min after conceding-0.283
10 min after scoring-0.063

Situations

At home-0.372
Away+0.062
4+ days rest-0.194

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.372
Evenly matched+0.062

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.442
Conceded late (76+)-0.133

Ahead vs level -0.33 · Behind vs level -0.21

Manchester City · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.41) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.62

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.415
Early press (0-15, level)+0.015

Game state

When ahead+0.405
When level+0.535
10 min after conceding-0.042
10 min after scoring+0.625

Situations

At home+0.222
Away+0.553
4+ days rest+0.314

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.453
v mid-tier opponents+0.362
As favourite+0.454

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.385
Conceded when ahead-0.435
Conceded late (76+)-0.525

Congested vs rested +0.50 · Ahead vs level -0.13 · Behind vs level -0.42

Newcastle United

Current: winless 2 · scoring 4 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 100%1.332.332.332.012.2

Manchester City

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 18 · clean sheets 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 50%3.03.00.332.461.08
4-1-4-11 17%3.010.01.02.710.58
4-2-2-21 17%3.01.00.01.190.79
4-3-2-11 17%3.02.01.02.030.23

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.6h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.1Home 24% P 35%3.6Draw 21% P 26%2.2Away 34% P 39%3.8Tie 20%

Double Chance

1.5Newcastle or Draw 19% P 31%1.28Newcastle or Man City 23% P 37%1.8Newcastle or Tie 16% P 37%1.33Tie or Man City 22% P 37%1.44Draw or Man City 20% P 33%

Draw No Bet

2.251 41%1.572 59%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58% P 66%2.2No 42% P 34%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 62%2.1Under 45% P 38%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 37.5–40% · 491 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home35%34%31%-2.8
Draw26%28%28%-0.1
Away39%39%42%+3.0

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 65–67.5% · 319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes66%66%66%+0.4

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,029 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.562%61%63%+1.6

Samuel Barrott

Career
113 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
3.87 (3.82 yellow · 0.02 red)
Fouls / match
20.2 · 5.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.24
Cards to home side
45%

Style in FA Cup (5-year window · 15 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.873.76+0.7775
Fouls / match20.519.7-0.03
Fouls per card5.35.5-0.87 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.130.24-0.9212
Time added7.47.2+0.2956
First card
30' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 48% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 45%)
VAR events / match
2.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-28 40 180 77'13
2026-02-21 20 210 33'10
2026-02-15 40 220 29'5
2026-02-07 30 190 26'10
2026-01-25 10 210 66'10
2026-01-18 · Newcastle United 40 220 58'7
2025-12-30 20 171 4'11
2025-12-20 40 91 26'10
2025-12-14 40 220 31'7
2025-12-07 13 8