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Europa Conference League · Quarter-finals Strasbourg went through · After Full Time

Momentum

FSV Mainz 05Strasbourg
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Quarter-finals
Leg
1/2

Venue

Stadium
Mewa Arena, Mainz
Capacity
34,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
32,000

Teams

Coaches
Urs Fischer · Gary O'Neil
Position
1 · 2
Formation
3-5-2 · 4-4-1-1

Referee

Rade Obrenović

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
13.1° (feels 11.8°)
Wind
0.9
Humidity
50%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Strasbourg 6510 1156 16 DWWWW
2 Raków Częstochowa 6420 927 14 DDWWW
3 AEK Athens 6411 1477 13 WDWWW
4 Sparta Praha 6411 1037 13 LDWWW
5 Rayo Vallecano 6411 1376 13 DWLWW
6 Shakhtar Donetsk 6411 1055 13 LWWWD
7 FSV Mainz 05 6411 734 13 WWLDW
8 AEK Larnaca 6330 716 12 WDDDW
9 Lausanne Sport 6321 633 11 WDLDW
10 Crystal Palace 6312 1165 10 LWLWD
11 Lech Poznań 6312 1284 10 LLWDW
12 Samsunspor 6312 1064 10 WWDLL
13 Celje 6312 871 10 WWLLD
14 AZ Alkmaar 6312 770 10 WLWWD
15 Fiorentina 6303 853 9 WLLWL
16 Rijeka 6231 523 9 WDDWD
17 Jagiellonia Białystok 6231 541 9 DDWLD
18 Omonia Nicosia 6222 541 8 DDWWL
19 Noah 6222 67-1 8 DLDWL
20 Drita 6222 48-4 8 DWWLL
21 KuPS 6141 651 7 DWLDD
22 Skendija 79 6213 45-1 7 WDLWL
23 Zrinjski 6213 810-2 7 LLWLD
24 Sigma Olomouc 6213 79-2 7 DWWLL
25 Universitatea Craiova 6213 68-2 7 DWWLL
26 Lincoln Red Imps 6213 715-8 7 WDLWL
27 Dynamo Kyiv 6204 990 6 LWLLW
28 Legia Warszawa 6204 880 6 WLLLW
29 Slovan Bratislava 6204 59-4 6 LLWLW
30 Breidablik 6123 611-5 5 DLDWL
31 Shamrock Rovers 6114 713-6 4 LDLLW
32 Häcken 6033 58-3 3 DLLDL
33 Hamrun Spartans 6105 411-7 3 LLWLL
34 Shelbourne 6024 07-7 2 LLLLD
35 Aberdeen 6024 314-11 2 LDDLL
36 SK Rapid 6015 314-11 1 LLLLD
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

FSV Mainz 05

DWWWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 2 · xG 7.16–5.35 · xPts 7.99

  • W A TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 xG 1.67–1.43 GER BI
  • W H Eintracht Frankfurt 2–1 xG 1.43–1.4 GER BI
  • W H Sigma Olomouc 2–0 xG 1.98–0.51 UEFA ECL
  • W A Werder Bremen 2–0 xG 1.49–1.33 GER BI
  • D A Sigma Olomouc 0–0 xG 0.59–0.68 UEFA ECL

Strasbourg

WDDWW 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 9 GA 5 · xG 10.01–5.51 · xPts 9.55

  • W H Nice 3–1 xG 3.08–0.56 FRA L1
  • W A Nantes 3–2 xG 2.11–1.39 FRA L1
  • D H Rijeka 1–1 xG 1.64–1.25 UEFA ECL
  • D H Paris 0–0 xG 1.37–0.65 FRA L1
  • W A Rijeka 2–1 xG 1.81–1.66 UEFA ECL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2026

FSV Mainz 05 10 draws1 Strasbourg

Goals 2–4 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 2 matches

FSV Mainz 05 10 draws1 Strasbourg

Goals 2–4 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 2 matches

FSV Mainz 05 10 draws1 Strasbourg

Goals 2–4 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • L Strasbourg 4–0 FSV Mainz 05 UEFA ECL · Quarter-finals · leg 2/2
  • W FSV Mainz 05 2–0 Strasbourg UEFA ECL · Quarter-finals · leg 1/2
MetricFSV Mainz 05 all · 12FSV Mainz 05 at home · 6Strasbourg all · 14Strasbourg away · 7
Results
Matches126147
Points per game1.923.001.932.14
W / D / L7 / 2 / 36 / 0 / 08 / 3 / 35 / 0 / 2
Goals for / match1.332.171.501.43
Goals against / match0.830.330.931.14
Clean sheets50%67%21%14%
Failed to score25%0%29%29%
Both teams scored33%33%57%57%
Over 2.533%33%50%57%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.522.141.761.13
xG against / match1.340.841.271.55
xG difference0.191.300.48-0.41
Finishing vs xG-0.190.03-0.260.30
xPts / match1.522.111.621.10
Points vs xPts0.400.890.311.05
Game state
Scored first67%83%50%71%
PPG when scoring first2.383.003.003.00
PPG when conceding first1.003.000.830.00
Came back from behind25%100%50%0%
Leads held78%100%100%100%
Minutes leading31%53%37%56%
Minutes level56%37%43%26%
Minutes trailing13%10%20%18%
First goal (min)39373420
First goal conceded (min)38244552
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half44%46%52%30%
Goals conceded in 2nd half40%0%46%62%
Late goals for (76'+)0.170.330.290.00
Late goals against0.080.000.140.29
Style
Possession49%48%57%54%
Shots13.616.511.08.4
On target4.05.54.94.0
Shot conversion10%13%14%17%
Shots inside box71%74%71%70%
Big chances created2.33.73.12.7
Corners5.66.24.63.1
xG from set plays31%30%19%21%
Goals from headers19%23%15%10%
Pressure index17.418.417.49.8
Dominant minutes59.261.356.145.6
Pass accuracy79%78%87%85%
Fouls13.214.010.111.7
Cards2.251.672.433.57

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'10
16–30'52
31–45'34
46–60'30
61–75'23
76–90'21

Strasbourg

0–15'31
16–30'32
31–45'44
46–60'22
61–75'52
76–90'42

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113
Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323
10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032
4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302
As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

Strasbourg · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.02

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.044
Early press (0-15, level)+0.114
Late push (76+, level)-0.532

Game state

When ahead+0.393
When level-0.044
When behind-0.063
10 min after conceding-0.144
10 min after scoring+1.023

Situations

At home+0.082
Away+0.002
4+ days rest+0.044

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.053
Evenly matched-0.022
As underdog+0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.214
Conceded when ahead+0.053
Conceded late (76+)+0.044

Ahead vs level +0.43 · Behind vs level -0.02

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-35 42%1.81.40.81.731.01
3-5-24 33%1.751.01.01.121.3
3-4-2-11 8%3.02.01.01.462.19
5-3-21 8%1.01.01.01.732.8
3-5-1-11 8%3.02.00.02.00.77

Strasbourg

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 12

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-15 36%2.01.60.61.691.1
4-4-22 14%2.01.51.01.750.88
4-3-31 7%3.02.01.00.892.18
3-3-3-11 7%3.03.02.01.022.15
4-3-1-21 7%1.00.00.02.330.15

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.3Home 41% P 41%3.3Draw 29% P 30%3.1Away 30% P 29%

Double Chance

1.33Mainz or Draw 36%1.36Mainz or Strasbourg 35%1.61Draw or Strasbourg 29%

Draw No Bet

1.571 59%2.252 41%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50%1.83No 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 42%1.65Under 57% P 58%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 32%2.759 - 11 32%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 27.5–30% · 815 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home41%41%42%+0.5
Draw30%30%27%-2.4
Away29%29%31%+1.9

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 43%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 40–42.5% · 2,093 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.542%41%41%-0.4

Rade Obrenović

Career
43 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
4.63 (4.42 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
20.3 · 4.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 9 matches)

Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 5.33 cards, 22.7 fouls per match.

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-12 10 220 33'9
2026-02-19 20 340 14'13
2026-01-21 41 172 18'6
2025-12-10 10 170 45'6
2025-10-22 61 270 2'8
2025-10-02 60 270 13'6
2025-09-16 70 270 30'5
2025-08-28 20 190 21'5
2025-07-30 110 300 5'6