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FA Cup · Final

Momentum

ChelseaMCI
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Final

Venue

Stadium
Wembley Stadium, London · neutral
Capacity
90,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
83,337

Teams

Coaches
Calum McFarlane · Pep Guardiola
Position
1 · 2
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-2-2

Referee

Darren England

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
13.4° (feels 12.5°)
Wind
8.2
Humidity
65%

Where to watch · 1

No table for this competition stage.

Chelsea

LLWLD 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 3 GA 8 · xG 6.02–5.66 · xPts 6.98

  • D A Liverpool 1–1 xG 0.42–0.57 UK PL
  • L H Nottingham Forest 1–3 xG 2.6–2.02 UK PL
  • W H Leeds United 1–0 xG 0.68–0.74 UK FA Cup
  • L A Brighton & Hove Albion 0–3 xG 0.62–2.02 UK PL
  • L H Manchester United 0–1 xG 1.71–0.32 UK PL

Manchester City

WWDWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 12 GA 4 · xG 11.76–4.48 · xPts 10.99

  • W H Crystal Palace 3–0 xG 1.52–0.92 UK PL
  • W H Brentford 3–0 xG 3.3–0.35 UK PL
  • D A Everton 3–3 xG 1.86–2.1 UK PL
  • W H Southampton 2–1 xG 2.03–0.23 UK FA Cup
  • W A Burnley 1–0 xG 3.06–0.89 UK PL

All meetings · 58 matches since 2000

Chelsea 267 draws25 Manchester City

Goals 74–71 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 38% · over 2.5 47%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Chelsea 03 draws7 Manchester City

Goals 7–21 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Chelsea 01 draws4 Manchester City

Goals 2–10 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Chelsea 0–1 Manchester City neutral UK FA Cup · Final
  • L Chelsea 0–3 Manchester City UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Manchester City 1–1 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Manchester City 3–1 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Chelsea 0–2 Manchester City UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Manchester City 1–0 Chelsea neutral UK FA Cup · Semi-finals
  • D Manchester City 1–1 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Chelsea 4–4 Manchester City UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Manchester City 1–0 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Manchester City 4–0 Chelsea UK FA Cup · 3rd Round
MetricChelsea all · 6Chelsea at home · 3Manchester City all · 6Manchester City away · 2
Results
Matches66
Points per game2.503.00
W / D / L5 / 0 / 16 / 0 / 0
Goals for / match3.503.67
Goals against / match0.670.50
Clean sheets50%50%
Failed to score17%0%
Both teams scored33%50%
Over 2.567%67%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.362.22
xG against / match1.010.81
xG difference1.351.41
Finishing vs xG1.141.45
xPts / match1.932.22
Points vs xPts0.570.78
Game state
Scored first67%67%
PPG when scoring first3.003.00
PPG when conceding first1.503.00
Came back from behind50%100%
Leads held100%100%
Minutes leading48%51%
Minutes level44%44%
Minutes trailing8%4%
First goal (min)3042
First goal conceded (min)4962
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half63%64%
Goals conceded in 2nd half75%67%
Late goals for (76'+)1.171.00
Late goals against0.170.33
Style
Possession65%65%
Shots16.517.8
On target7.56.5
Shot conversion21%21%
Shots inside box68%69%
Big chances created4.53.5
Corners5.36.8
xG from set plays32%24%
Goals from headers20%9%
Pressure index21.726.5
Dominant minutes66.266.3
Pass accuracy89%89%
Fouls10.311.5
Cards2.000.67

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Chelsea

0–15'10
16–30'21
31–45'40
46–60'41
61–75'31
76–90'51

Manchester City

0–15'20
16–30'11
31–45'50
46–60'50
61–75'30
76–90'62

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Chelsea · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.09) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.33

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.095
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.342

Game state

When ahead+0.074
When level-0.045
When behind+0.323
10 min after conceding-0.335
10 min after scoring+0.324

Situations

At home-0.002
Away+0.163
4+ days rest+0.095

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.064
As favourite+0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.215
Conceded when ahead+0.354
Conceded late (76+)-0.335

Ahead vs level +0.11 · Behind vs level +0.36

Manchester City · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.41) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.62

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.415
Early press (0-15, level)+0.015

Game state

When ahead+0.405
When level+0.535
10 min after conceding-0.042
10 min after scoring+0.625

Situations

At home+0.222
Away+0.553
4+ days rest+0.314

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.453
v mid-tier opponents+0.362
As favourite+0.454

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.385
Conceded when ahead-0.435
Conceded late (76+)-0.525

Congested vs rested +0.50 · Ahead vs level -0.13 · Behind vs level -0.42

Chelsea

Current: winless 3 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 67%3.04.250.252.820.76
3-4-2-12 33%1.52.01.51.441.51

Manchester City

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 18 · clean sheets 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 50%3.03.00.332.461.08
4-3-2-11 17%3.02.01.02.030.23
4-2-2-21 17%3.01.00.01.190.79
4-1-4-11 17%3.010.01.02.710.58

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.0h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

4.33Home 22% P 21%3.8Draw 25% P 24%1.75Away 54% P 54%

Double Chance

2.05Chelsea or Draw 23%1.25Chelsea or Man City 37%1.18Draw or Man City 40%

Draw No Bet

3.51 27%1.282 73%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 56%2.2Under 43% P 44%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 34%3.612 - 14 25%6.5Over 14 14%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 55%1.83Under 50% P 45%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 20–22.5% · away 52.5–55% · 365 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home21%21%23%+1.8
Draw24%25%25%-0.3
Away54%54%52%-1.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 53%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,508 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.556%56%56%-0.2

Darren England

Career
247 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
3.94 (3.83 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
22.8 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.26
Cards to home side
44%

Style in FA Cup (5-year window · 11 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.183.76+1.2388
Fouls / match19.919.7-0.28
Fouls per card5.25.5-0.96 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.180.24-0.6325
Time added7.37.2+0.1450
First card
36' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 30% in last 15'
Cards to home side
33% (league 45%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-05-03 40 230 49'9
2026-04-24 70 280 51'10
2026-04-20 30 250 21'8
2026-03-21 100 220 25'16
2026-03-08 50 290 25'9
2026-03-04 · Manchester City 40 160 45'12
2026-03-01 · Chelsea 61 250 59'13
2026-02-23 50 190 77'10
2026-02-16 40 210 21'10
2026-02-07 40 210 24'9