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Championship · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals Leg 2/2
SouthamptonSouthampton
2–1
AET
MiddlesbroughMID

Momentum

– SouthamptonMID –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals
Leg
2/2

Venue

Stadium
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Capacity
32,384
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,277

Teams

Coaches
Tonda Eckert · Kim Hellberg
Position
1 · 2
Formation
4-2-2-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Andy Madley

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
10.2° (feels 9.2°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
76%

Where to watch · 185

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Southampton

DLDWD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 8 GA 7 · xG 8.03–8.51 · xPts 6.51

  • D A Middlesbrough 0–0 xG 0.73–2.24 UK CHAMP
  • W A Preston North End 3–1 xG 2.72–1.42 UK CHAMP
  • D H Ipswich Town 2–2 xG 1.62–2.02 UK CHAMP
  • L A Manchester City 1–2 xG 0.23–2.03 UK FA Cup
  • D H Bristol City 2–2 xG 2.73–0.8 UK CHAMP

Middlesbrough

DWWDD 2W 3D 0L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 10 GA 5 · xG 11.3–6.79 · xPts 9.74

  • D H Southampton 0–0 xG 2.24–0.73 UK CHAMP
  • D A Wrexham 2–2 xG 2.36–2.04 UK CHAMP
  • W H Watford 5–1 xG 2.51–1.13 UK CHAMP
  • W H Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 xG 1.63–0.68 UK CHAMP
  • D A Ipswich Town 2–2 xG 2.55–2.22 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 20 matches since 2000

Southampton 77 draws6 Middlesbrough

Goals 26–26 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 65% · over 2.5 60%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Southampton 43 draws3 Middlesbrough

Goals 12–12 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Southampton 13 draws1 Middlesbrough

Goals 4–7 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Southampton 2–1 Middlesbrough aet UK CHAMP · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals · leg 2/2
  • D Middlesbrough 0–0 Southampton UK CHAMP · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals · leg 1/2
  • L Middlesbrough 4–0 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Southampton 1–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Southampton 1–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Middlesbrough 2–1 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Middlesbrough 1–2 Southampton neutral UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Southampton 1–0 Middlesbrough UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Middlesbrough 2–1 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Southampton 3–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricSouthampton all · 48Southampton at home · 24Middlesbrough all · 49Middlesbrough away · 25
Results
Matches48244925
Points per game1.751.961.651.52
W / D / L23 / 15 / 1013 / 8 / 322 / 15 / 1210 / 8 / 7
Goals for / match1.751.671.491.56
Goals against / match1.190.831.021.28
Clean sheets25%42%29%16%
Failed to score12%17%26%24%
Both teams scored71%54%55%64%
Over 2.562%54%53%64%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.781.591.55
xG against / match1.331.091.051.15
xG difference0.380.690.530.40
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.11-0.100.01
xPts / match1.591.781.701.60
Points vs xPts0.160.18-0.04-0.08
Game state
Scored first52%50%53%52%
PPG when scoring first2.242.672.462.31
PPG when conceding first1.261.330.670.64
Came back from behind54%67%46%50%
Leads held72%81%79%71%
Minutes leading34%36%32%31%
Minutes level49%48%49%47%
Minutes trailing18%16%19%22%
First goal (min)40393736
First goal conceded (min)44404645
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half55%49%51%49%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%55%55%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.380.250.220.28
Late goals against0.270.170.290.28
Style
Possession56%58%59%58%
Shots14.415.816.215.3
On target5.35.54.84.5
Shot conversion12%11%9%10%
Shots inside box68%66%64%65%
Big chances created2.92.92.42.5
Corners5.86.56.85.8
xG from set plays28%26%24%18%
Goals from headers22%25%12%10%
Pressure index17.921.119.718.4
Dominant minutes59.063.863.163.2
Pass accuracy83%84%84%84%
Fouls10.79.89.39.5
Cards1.881.631.612.12

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Southampton

0–15'135
16–30'178
31–45'79
46–60'1710
61–75'1212
76–90'1713

Middlesbrough

0–15'97
16–30'1010
31–45'175
46–60'136
61–75'138
76–90'1113

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Southampton · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.18) · stands out: late push (76+, level) +0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.187
Early press (0-15, level)-0.267
Late push (76+, level)+0.393

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.037
When behind+0.622
10 min after conceding-0.187
10 min after scoring+0.297

Situations

At home+0.034
Away+0.363
3 days rest or fewer+0.252
4+ days rest+0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.234
v bottom-tier opponents+0.123
As favourite+0.206

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead+0.166
Conceded late (76+)-0.446

Congested vs rested +0.09 · Ahead vs level +0.16 · Behind vs level +0.59

Middlesbrough · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: when behind +1.00

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.387
Early press (0-15, level)+0.477
Late push (76+, level)+0.294

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.237
When behind+1.004
10 min after conceding+0.276
10 min after scoring+0.697

Situations

At home+0.464
Away+0.263
3 days rest or fewer+0.822
4+ days rest+0.205

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.415
v bottom-tier opponents+0.282
As favourite+0.435
Evenly matched+0.262

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.137
Conceded when ahead-0.116
Conceded late (76+)-0.417

Congested vs rested +0.62 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level +0.77

Southampton

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 2 · scoring 8 · conceding 8

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-120 42%2.051.950.951.521.23
3-4-2-117 35%1.181.651.651.951.44
3-4-34 8%1.51.51.51.071.7
4-2-2-22 4%2.02.01.52.560.86
4-1-4-12 4%3.01.50.51.392.18

Middlesbrough

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-114 29%1.431.140.931.521.11
4-2-3-111 22%2.452.00.731.541.13
4-2-2-28 16%0.750.630.881.921.08
4-4-25 10%2.42.41.61.131.07
3-4-1-23 6%1.01.672.670.881.17

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.45Home 38% P 38%3.3Draw 28% P 28%2.8Away 33% P 33%

Double Chance

1.4Southampton or Draw 33%1.3Southampton or Middlesbrough 36%1.53Draw or Middlesbrough 31%

Draw No Bet

1.721 54%2.02 46%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59%2.25No 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 53%2.1Under 45% P 47%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.756 - 8 23%2.629 - 11 33%3.612 - 14 24%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46% P 44%1.72Under 54% P 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 32.5–35% · 571 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home38%39%39%+0.5
Draw28%28%28%-0.0
Away33%34%33%-0.4

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 46%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.553%54%54%+0.8

Andy Madley

Career
313 matches · 16 seasons
Cards / match
3.42 (3.29 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
21.8 · 5.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 17 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.534.05+0.8782
Fouls / match23.221.8+1.19
Fouls per card5.15.4-0.64 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.180.17-0.0353
Time added6.97.2-0.3735
First card
36' on average
Card timing
9% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
54% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-05-09 62 330 41'9
2026-04-25 40 200 19'11
2026-04-22 –– 22– –6
2026-04-22 40 291 37'15
2026-04-12 30 291 68'7
2026-04-03 30 171 38'8
2026-03-14 –– 23– 61'14
2026-03-09 20 262 80'10
2026-03-05 51 281 7'13
2026-03-01 40 250 30'13