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Championship · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals Leg 2/2
MillwallMillwall
0–2
FT
Hull CityHull City

Momentum

– MillwallHull City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals
Leg
2/2

Venue

Stadium
The Den, London
Capacity
20,146
Surface
grass
Attendance
17,768

Teams

Coaches
Alex Neil · Sergej Jakirović
Position
1 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Samuel Barrott

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
8.1° (feels 6.5°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
62%

Where to watch · 185

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Millwall

WWDWD 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 8 GA 2 · xG 8.76–3.97 · xPts 10.04

  • D A Hull City 0–0 xG 0.76–0.46 UK CHAMP
  • W H Oxford United 2–0 xG 2.78–0.92 UK CHAMP
  • D A Leicester City 1–1 xG 2.1–1.51 UK CHAMP
  • W A Stoke City 3–1 xG 1.69–0.92 UK CHAMP
  • W H Queens Park Rangers 2–0 xG 1.44–0.15 UK CHAMP

Hull City

DDLWD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 6.52–6.53 · xPts 7.13

  • D H Millwall 0–0 xG 0.46–0.76 UK CHAMP
  • W H Norwich City 2–1 xG 1.9–1.26 UK CHAMP
  • L A Charlton Athletic 1–2 xG 1.25–0.56 UK CHAMP
  • D A Leicester City 2–2 xG 1.83–3.36 UK CHAMP
  • D H Birmingham City 1–1 xG 1.07–0.59 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 28 matches since 2005

Millwall 89 draws11 Hull City

Goals 28–32 · 2.14 per match · BTTS 46% · over 2.5 39%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Millwall 14 draws5 Hull City

Goals 6–11 · 1.7 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Millwall 11 draws3 Hull City

Goals 4–7 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Millwall 0–2 Hull City UK CHAMP · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals · leg 2/2
  • D Hull City 0–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals · leg 1/2
  • W Hull City 1–3 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 1–3 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 0–1 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Hull City 0–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Hull City 1–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Millwall 2–2 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Hull City 1–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Millwall 0–0 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricMillwall all · 48Millwall at home · 24Hull City all · 49Hull City away · 24
Results
Matches48244924
Points per game1.751.751.631.58
W / D / L24 / 12 / 1213 / 3 / 823 / 11 / 1511 / 5 / 8
Goals for / match1.331.381.491.54
Goals against / match1.061.131.351.33
Clean sheets40%46%29%29%
Failed to score21%21%18%12%
Both teams scored48%38%61%62%
Over 2.546%50%61%67%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.501.631.371.27
xG against / match1.331.151.661.91
xG difference0.180.49-0.29-0.63
Finishing vs xG-0.17-0.260.120.27
xPts / match1.471.631.251.09
Points vs xPts0.280.120.380.49
Game state
Scored first52%58%57%67%
PPG when scoring first2.602.572.182.00
PPG when conceding first0.790.560.880.71
Came back from behind43%27%35%33%
Leads held86%87%72%65%
Minutes leading27%34%30%32%
Minutes level56%50%53%52%
Minutes trailing17%16%17%16%
First goal (min)44373233
First goal conceded (min)43444044
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%52%45%49%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%82%52%62%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.330.270.33
Late goals against0.350.460.310.38
Style
Possession48%50%45%43%
Shots12.913.511.111.0
On target4.24.64.14.3
Shot conversion10%10%13%14%
Shots inside box68%71%68%68%
Big chances created2.32.42.22.3
Corners5.76.24.44.6
xG from set plays33%36%21%13%
Goals from headers16%19%14%19%
Pressure index11.914.89.37.6
Dominant minutes44.449.739.832.6
Pass accuracy70%72%72%71%
Fouls12.610.911.211.5
Cards1.901.382.553.04

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Hull City

0–15'117
16–30'1413
31–45'1512
46–60'910
61–75'119
76–90'1315

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Hull City · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.42) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.57

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.424
Early press (0-15, level)-0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.503

Game state

When ahead-0.363
When level-0.444
10 min after scoring+0.133

Situations

At home-0.452
Away-0.392
4+ days rest-0.424

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.393
As underdog-0.424

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.364
Conceded when ahead+0.583
Conceded late (76+)+0.274

Ahead vs level +0.08 · Behind vs level -0.08

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62

Hull City

Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-136 74%1.641.611.441.491.76
3-4-2-16 12%1.51.01.171.091.37
4-4-22 4%3.01.50.51.091.08
3-4-1-22 4%0.51.52.01.251.52
4-3-31 2%1.00.00.00.561.69

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.8Home 52% P 52%3.6Draw 26% P 28%4.33Away 22% P 20%

Double Chance

1.18Millwall or Draw 40%1.25Millwall or Hull 38%2.1Draw or Hull 22%

Draw No Bet

1.31 72%3.42 28%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50%1.83No 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 44%1.9Under 50% P 56%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 33%3.512 - 14 25%6.0Over 14 14%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58% P 59%2.2Under 42% P 41%
4.52.0Over 46% P 41%1.72Under 54% P 59%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 50–52.5% · away 20–22.5% · 722 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home52%51%55%+3.6
Draw28%27%26%-1.4
Away20%21%19%-2.1

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 47%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.544%44%43%-1.2

Samuel Barrott

Career
113 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
3.87 (3.82 yellow · 0.02 red)
Fouls / match
20.2 · 5.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.24
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 26 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.354.05-1.2812
Fouls / match20.421.8-1.30
Fouls per card6.35.4+1.16 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.270.17+1.2694
Time added8.77.2+1.7298
First card
39' on average
Card timing
12% in first 30' · 24% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-05-03 70 240 27'6
2026-04-25 40 230 57'10
2026-04-19 40 220 66'9
2026-04-04 30 200 27'7
2026-03-21 20 130 69'10
2026-03-15 50 180 18'11
2026-03-07 20 280 54'6
2026-02-28 40 180 77'13
2026-02-21 20 210 33'10
2026-02-15 40 220 29'5