Rating 7.21 (87th pct) · G+A 7 + 6 (23% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Team 1.9 ppg with (29) · 1.55 without (11)
Serie A · Matchweek 5
Momentum
– AC MilanLecce –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
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Season context
| AC Milan | at home | Stat | league | away | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58.5 #5 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 40.5 #20 |
| 13.5 #11 | – | Shots total | 14.6 | – | 9.0 #18 |
| 4.2 #11 | – | Shots on target | 4.9 | – | 3.5 #17 |
| 3.0 #16 | – | Corners | 4.7 | – | 3.5 #15 |
| 10.5 #12 | – | Fouls | 11.2 | – | 12.0 #7 |
| 0.8 #18 | – | Offsides | 2.1 | – | 0.8 #18 |
| 14.2 #13 | – | Tackles | 16.0 | – | 22.8 #1 |
| 92.0 #12 | – | Attacks | 92.8 | – | 94.0 #10 |
| 45.2 #9 | – | Dangerous attacks | 44.7 | – | 30.8 #18 |
| 541.0 #4 | – | Passes | 459.1 | – | 368.0 #18 |
| 2.0 #5 | – | Yellowcards | 1.5 | – | 2.2 #2 |
| 1.5 #5 | – | Assists | 1.2 | – | 1.2 #8 |
| – #5 | – | Btts | 60.0 | – | – #17 |
| – #6 | – | Cleansheet | 20.0 | – | – #6 |
| – #1 | – | Draw | 15.0 | – | – #12 |
| 1.6 #8 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 1.2 #14 |
| 0.1 #9 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.0 | – | 0.1 #10 |
| – #10 | – | Failed to score | 20.0 | – | – #2 |
| 1.8 #6 | 2.0 | Goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 #12 |
| 1.0 #14 | 0.0 | Goals conceded | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.8 #6 |
| 0.5 #4 | – | Injury time goals | 0.5 | – | – |
| 7.5 #13 | – | Interceptions | 8.5 | – | 8.5 #8 |
| – #16 | – | Lost | 42.5 | – | – #8 |
| 6.9 #6 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.7 #14 |
| 3.2 #10 | – | Shots blocked | 3.6 | – | 1.2 #19 |
| 10.5 #5 | – | Shots insidebox | 9.6 | – | 5.0 #20 |
| 6.0 #8 | – | Shots off target | 6.0 | – | 4.2 #18 |
| 3.0 #18 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.9 | – | 4.0 #14 |
| – #6 | – | Win | 42.5 | – | – #6 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 37 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.92 (home 1.41 · away 1.51)
- Home / draw / away
- 41% · 16% · 43%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 59% · 57%
- Cards / match
- 3.19 (reds 0.03)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
AC Milan · Last 365 days
Rating 7.23 (89th pct) · G+A 1 + 2 (5% of team goals) · 78% of minutes
Team 1.94 ppg with (32) · 1.25 without (8)
Rating 7.08 (92th pct) · G+A 3 + 3 (11% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Team 1.68 ppg with (31) · 2.22 without (9)
Lecce · Last 365 days
Rating 6.88 (68th pct) · G+A 4 + 0 (12% of team goals) · 93% of minutes
Rating 6.87 (45th pct) · G+A 5 + 2 (22% of team goals) · 80% of minutes
Team 1.31 ppg with (32) · 0.14 without (7)
Rating 7.23 (88th pct) · G+A 2 + 3 (16% of team goals) · 23% of minutes
Team 1.36 ppg with (11) · 1.0 without (28)
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 5
Venue
- Stadium
- Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
- Capacity
- 75,817
- Surface
- grass
Teams
- Coaches
- Ruben Amorim · Eusebio Di Francesco
- Position
- 6 · 12
- Formation
- 3-4-2-1 · 4-3-3
Referee
Federico La Penna
Weather
- Conditions
- broken clouds
- Temperature
- 24.2° (feels 24.3°)
- Wind
- 1.4
- Humidity
- 65%
Where to watch · 73
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2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Inter |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 3 |  Como |
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  Lazio |
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | WWWD |
| 5 |  Cagliari |
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | WLWW |
| 6 |  AC Milan |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 8 | WWDD |
| 7 |  Frosinone |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | LWWD |
| 8 |  Juventus |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | WWDL |
| 9 |  Sassuolo |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 | LWDW |
| 10 |  Napoli |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | WLLW |
| 11 |  Atalanta |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | WWLL |
| 12 |  Lecce |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 | WLLW |
| 13 |  Udinese |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4 | DWLL |
| 14 |  Torino |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 | LLWL |
| 15 |  Fiorentina |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 | LLLW |
| 16 |  Bologna |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | LLDL |
| 17 |  Parma |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 | LLDL |
| 18 |  Monza |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1 | LLDL |
| 19 |  Genoa |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 | LLLD |
| 20 |  Venezia |
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 9 | WWWW |
| 2 | Roma |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WWWW |
| 3 | Sassuolo |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | LWDW |
| 4 | Atalanta |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | WWLL |
| 5 | Juventus |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WWDL |
| 6 | Lazio |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | WWWD |
| 7 | AC Milan |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | WWDD |
| 8 | Como |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | DWWW |
| 9 | Frosinone |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | LWWD |
| 10 | Napoli |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | WLLW |
| 11 | Cagliari |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | WLWW |
| 12 | Lecce |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | WLLW |
| 13 | Bologna |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | LLDL |
| 14 | Udinese |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | DWLL |
| 15 | Parma |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | LLDL |
| 16 | Genoa |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLD |
| 17 | Monza |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | LLDL |
| 18 | Torino |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | LLWL |
| 19 | Venezia |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 | LLLL |
| 20 | Fiorentina |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | LLLW |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Como |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | DWWW |
| 2 | Roma |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | WWWW |
| 3 | Cagliari |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WLWW |
| 4 | Lazio |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WWWD |
| 5 | AC Milan |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | WWDD |
| 6 | Frosinone |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | LWWD |
| 7 | Napoli |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | WLLW |
| 8 | Lecce |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | WLLW |
| 9 | Inter |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | WWWW |
| 10 | Juventus |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | WWDL |
| 11 | Torino |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | LLWL |
| 12 | Udinese |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | DWLL |
| 13 | Fiorentina |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | LLLW |
| 14 | Sassuolo |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 | LWDW |
| 15 | Monza |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 | LLDL |
| 16 | Atalanta |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | WWLL |
| 17 | Genoa |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | LLLD |
| 18 | Bologna |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | LLDL |
| 19 | Venezia |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LLLL |
| 20 | Parma |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | LLDL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation
AC Milan
WWDDL 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 7 GA 6 · xG 7.67–6.04 · xPts 7.6
- L
H
Benfica
0–2
xG 1.3–0.87
UEFA EL - D
A
Lazio
2–2
xG 1.44–1.83
ITA SA
- D
A
Juventus
1–1
xG 0.11–1.24
ITA SA
- W
H
Venezia
2–0
xG 2.57–1.05
ITA SA
- W
A
Torino
2–1
xG 2.24–1.06
ITA SA
LWWDDL 2W 2D 2L · 8 pts (1.33 ppg) · GF 8 GA 8 · xG 9.44–8.58 · xPts 8.59
- L
H
Benfica
0–2
xG 1.3–0.87
UEFA EL
- D
A
Lazio
2–2
xG 1.44–1.83
ITA SA
- D
A
Juventus
1–1
xG 0.11–1.24
ITA SA
- W
H
Venezia
2–0
xG 2.57–1.05
ITA SA
- W
A
Torino
2–1
xG 2.24–1.06
ITA SA
- L
H
Cagliari
1–2
xG 1.77–2.53
ITA SA
Lecce
WWLLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 5.98–9.99 · xPts 4.85
- W
H
Monza
3–2
xG 1.19–3.03
ITA SA
- L
A
Cagliari
0–1
xG 0.76–1.14
ITA SA
- L
H
Roma
0–4
xG 0.77–2.72
ITA SA
- W
A
Venezia
2–0
xG 1.9–2.21
ITA SA
- W
H
Genoa
1–0
xG 1.36–0.89
ITA SA
WWLLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 5.98–9.99 · xPts 4.85
- W
H
Monza
3–2
xG 1.19–3.03
ITA SA
- L
A
Cagliari
0–1
xG 0.76–1.14
ITA SA
- L
H
Roma
0–4
xG 0.77–2.72
ITA SA
- W
A
Venezia
2–0
xG 1.9–2.21
ITA SA
- W
H
Genoa
1–0
xG 1.36–0.89
ITA SA
full sample 8 meetings 2023–2026 · 2 on neutral ground
Recurring referee: Luca Zufferli · 2 of these meetings
Last 8
Goals 18–6 · AC Milan hosting: 2W 0D 0L · Lecce hosting: 0W 2D 2L
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 2 meetings · AC Milan 2 · draws 0 · Lecce 0 · 2.0 goals per match
All-time since 2005: 18 meetings · AC Milan 12 · draws 5 · Lecce 1
- AC Milan have won the last 5 meetings
- Lecce haven't beaten AC Milan since Apr 2006
This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days
| Metric | Fixture | League | Δ | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals per match | 3.00 | 2.51 | +0.49 | 8 |
| Both teams score | 38% | 47% | -10% | 8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 48% | +14% | 8 |
| Corners | 8.6 | 8.8 | -0.2 | 8 |
| Cards | 3.4 | 4.0 | -0.6 | 8 |
3 with 4+ goals · 1.38 first-half goals per match · red card in 3
How these games go · 8 with event data
| AC Milan | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 6 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
| Scored first and won | 5 | 0 |
| Won from behind | 1 | 0 |
first goal on average in minute 33 · a side came back in 3 · goal after the 75th minute in 3 · penalty scored in 1
When the goals come · all goals, 8 meetings
0-15'3
16-30'3
31-45'5
46-60'3
61-75'7
76-90'3
3 equalisers · 1 penalty · 2 own goals · 3 headers
Expected goals · last 4 with xG
Deserved on xG: AC Milan 4 · level 0 · Lecce 0 — actual wins in those games 5 / 0
Against the market · 8 with closing odds
Favourite won 6 (75%), drew 2, upset 0 · market favoured AC Milan 8×, Lecce 0× · avg favourite 63%, avg price of the actual result 56%
Fixture specialists
- 4 Christian Pulisic AC Milan · in 3 games · last Aug 2025
- 4 Rafael Leão AC Milan · in 3 games · last Apr 2024
- 2 Nikola Krstović Lecce · last Mar 2025
- 2 Olivier Giroud AC Milan · in 2 games · last Apr 2024
- 1 Niclas Füllkrug AC Milan · last Jan 2026
Last meeting · 2026-01-18 · ITA SA
AC Milan 1-0 Lecce · ref Luca Zufferli
- 76' Niclas Füllkrug assist Alexis Saelemaekers 1–0
xG 3.10 – 0.31 · corners 12 · cards 2
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·
Match result
60.5%AC Milan P 75%23.9%Draw P 16%15.6%Lecce P 8%
Over / under 2.5
44.5%Over 2.5 P 57%55.5%Under 2.5 P 43%
Both teams to score
43.2%Yes56.8%No
Expected
- AC Milan goals
- 1.72 (0–3)
- Lecce goals
- 0.74 (0–2)
- Corners
- 8.14 (4–12)
- Cards
- 3.77 (1–6)
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
55.6%AC Milan23.6%Draw20.8%Lecce
Over / under 2.5
49.9%Over 2.550.1%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
50.9%Yes49.1%No
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 18 matches since 2005
Goals 40–16 · 3.11 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 56%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 24–9 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 70%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 12–2 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 60%
Recent meetings
- W AC Milan 1–0 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
- W Lecce 0–2 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- W Lecce 2–3 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- W AC Milan 3–0 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
- W AC Milan 3–0 Lecce neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
- D Lecce 2–2 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- W AC Milan 2–0 Lecce neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
- D Lecce 2–2 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- W Lecce 1–4 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- D AC Milan 2–2 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
| Metric | AC Milan all · 4 | AC Milan at home · 1 | Lecce all · 4 | Lecce away · 2 |
|---|
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
AC Milan · 5 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.45) · stands out: as favourite +0.69
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.455
Early press (0-15, level)+0.485
Late push (76+, level)+0.022
Game state
When ahead-0.083
When level+0.495
When behind+0.712
10 min after conceding+0.404
10 min after scoring+0.564
Situations
At home+0.472
Away+0.443
4+ days rest+0.455
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.102
As favourite+0.693
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead+0.003
Conceded late (76+)-0.055
Ahead vs level -0.56 · Behind vs level +0.22
Lecce · 4 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.31) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.43
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.314
Early press (0-15, level)-0.434
Game state
When ahead-0.342
When level-0.294
When behind-0.272
10 min after conceding-0.233
10 min after scoring-0.202
Situations
At home-0.372
Away-0.272
4+ days rest-0.314
Opposition
v bottom-tier opponents-0.382
As underdog-0.233
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.804
Conceded when ahead+0.912
Conceded late (76+)+0.563
Ahead vs level -0.05 · Behind vs level +0.02
AC Milan
Current: winless 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 100% | 2.0 | 1.75 | 1.0 | 1.59 | 1.29 |
Lecce
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 2 50% | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.55 | 2.62 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 25% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.76 | 1.14 |
| 3-5-2 | 1 25% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.77 | 2.72 |
| Metric | AC Milan all · 10 | AC Milan at home · 10 | Lecce all · 10 | Lecce away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.70 | 1.30 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 3 / 4 | 3 / 2 / 5 | 5 / 2 / 3 | 4 / 1 / 5 |
| Goals for / match | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| Goals against / match | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.42 | 1.59 | 1.22 | 0.97 |
| xG against / match | 1.41 | 1.32 | 1.77 | 1.63 |
| xG difference | 0.01 | 0.27 | -0.55 | -0.66 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.22 | -0.59 | -0.02 | 0.13 |
| xPts / match | 1.36 | 1.54 | 1.11 | 1.00 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.16 | -0.44 | 0.59 | 0.30 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 40% | 50% | 60% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.00 | 2.25 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| Came back from behind | 20% | 17% | 25% | 0% |
| Leads held | 60% | 75% | 100% | 67% |
| Minutes leading | 14% | 15% | 34% | 23% |
| Minutes level | 49% | 52% | 35% | 51% |
| Minutes trailing | 37% | 33% | 31% | 26% |
| First goal (min) | 58 | 49 | 32 | 32 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 32 | 23 | 36 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 92% | 70% | 50% | 64% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 50% | 43% | 33% | 50% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Late goals against | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 53% | 56% | 40% | 38% |
| Shots | 13.0 | 15.2 | 9.7 | 9.6 |
| On target | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| Shot conversion | 9% | 7% | 12% | 12% |
| Shots inside box | 65% | 64% | 66% | 64% |
| Big chances created | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Corners | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| xG from set plays | 30% | 21% | 33% | 32% |
| Goals from headers | 8% | 10% | 33% | 46% |
| Pressure index | 14.4 | 15.9 | 8.3 | 7.2 |
| Dominant minutes | 53.8 | 55.7 | 38.3 | 31.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 89% | 74% | 72% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 14.0 |
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | 2.50 | 2.30 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
AC Milan
0–15'13
16–30'03
31–45'01
46–60'14
61–75'60
76–90'43
Lecce
0–15'42
16–30'26
31–45'00
46–60'21
61–75'21
76–90'22
AC Milan
Current: winless 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 50% | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.53 | 1.21 |
| 3-5-2 | 5 50% | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.61 |
Lecce
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 7 70% | 1.57 | 1.0 | 0.86 | 1.19 | 1.39 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 20% | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.55 | 2.62 |
| 3-5-2 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.77 | 2.72 |
| Metric | AC Milan all · 40 | AC Milan at home · 19 | Lecce all · 39 | Lecce away · 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 40 | 19 | 39 | 19 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.68 | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| W / D / L | 20 / 12 / 8 | 9 / 5 / 5 | 12 / 7 / 20 | 6 / 2 / 11 |
| Goals for / match | 1.40 | 1.32 | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| Goals against / match | 0.97 | 1.11 | 1.31 | 1.21 |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 37% | 26% | 26% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 21% | 49% | 47% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 47% | 36% | 32% |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 47% | 38% | 26% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.58 | 1.85 | 0.95 | 0.80 |
| xG against / match | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.62 | 1.71 |
| xG difference | 0.28 | 0.54 | -0.67 | -0.91 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.18 | -0.53 | -0.13 | 0.04 |
| xPts / match | 1.54 | 1.70 | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.26 | -0.01 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 58% | 53% | 46% | 47% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.43 | 2.50 | 2.11 | 2.11 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Came back from behind | 53% | 50% | 9% | 0% |
| Leads held | 74% | 75% | 67% | 67% |
| Minutes leading | 27% | 27% | 23% | 20% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 50% | 48% | 52% |
| Minutes trailing | 20% | 23% | 29% | 29% |
| First goal (min) | 47 | 47 | 29 | 36 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 44 | 37 | 38 | 42 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 66% | 64% | 41% | 56% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 51% | 52% | 57% | 56% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 53% | 55% | 41% | 39% |
| Shots | 13.0 | 15.8 | 9.8 | 9.2 |
| On target | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Shot conversion | 11% | 8% | 8% | 9% |
| Shots inside box | 69% | 67% | 58% | 55% |
| Big chances created | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Corners | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| xG from set plays | 29% | 28% | 36% | 27% |
| Goals from headers | 9% | 12% | 34% | 31% |
| Pressure index | 15.8 | 19.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 |
| Dominant minutes | 51.8 | 58.2 | 34.0 | 28.1 |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 88% | 74% | 73% |
| Fouls | 10.1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 13.6 |
| Cards | 1.85 | 1.84 | 1.95 | 2.00 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
AC Milan
0–15'56
16–30'37
31–45'116
46–60'137
61–75'105
76–90'148
Lecce
0–15'103
16–30'614
31–45'35
46–60'38
61–75'412
76–90'69
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
AC Milan · 40 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.24) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +0.92
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.2440
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0540
Late push (76+, level)+0.0719
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.6410
Game state
When ahead+0.0927
When level+0.1740
When behind+0.6117
10 min after conceding+0.0726
10 min after scoring+0.6432
Situations
With ten men-0.035
Against ten men-0.782
At home+0.3119
Away+0.1721
3 days rest or fewer+0.722
4+ days rest+0.2138
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.1412
v mid-tier opponents+0.2510
v bottom-tier opponents+0.924
As favourite+0.4725
Evenly matched-0.1313
As underdog-0.322
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0540
Conceded when ahead+0.0927
Conceded late (76+)-0.0636
Congested vs rested +0.52 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level +0.43
Lecce · 39 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.20) · stands out: 3 days rest or fewer -0.54
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.2039
Early press (0-15, level)-0.0739
Late push (76+, level)-0.0810
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.3717
Game state
When ahead-0.2518
When level-0.1339
When behind-0.2921
10 min after conceding-0.3728
10 min after scoring+0.1120
Situations
With ten men-0.282
At home-0.1820
Away-0.2219
3 days rest or fewer-0.543
4+ days rest-0.1736
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.4011
v mid-tier opponents-0.1711
v bottom-tier opponents-0.363
Evenly matched-0.0314
As underdog-0.3124
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.4439
Conceded when ahead+0.3718
Conceded late (76+)+0.2835
Congested vs rested -0.36 · Ahead vs level -0.12 · Behind vs level -0.16
AC Milan
Current: winless 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5-2 | 33 82% | 1.91 | 1.42 | 0.85 | 1.56 | 1.31 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 12% | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.53 | 1.21 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.38 | 1.5 |
| 3-1-4-2 | 1 2% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.66 | 1.14 |
Lecce
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 23 59% | 1.09 | 0.78 | 1.22 | 0.96 | 1.42 |
| 4-3-3 | 12 31% | 1.25 | 1.0 | 1.08 | 0.92 | 1.89 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 5% | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.42 | 1.31 |
| 3-5-1-1 | 1 3% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.21 | 2.43 |
| 3-5-2 | 1 3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.77 | 2.72 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 77 snapshots · last 43.8h before kick-off
1.27Home 75% · -0.1 ptsopened 1.275.86Draw 16% · +0.1 ptsopened 5.8911.47Away 8% · +0.0 ptsopened 11.49
Home Draw Away consensus of 7 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.27 · -0.1 | 5.86 · +0.1 | 11.47 · +0.0 | 43.8h |
| bet365 | 1.27 ▲ +1.2 | 5.75 ▼ -1.3 | 11.0 · +0.1 | 43.8h |
| Betfair | 1.25 · -0.0 | 6.0 · -0.8 | 13.0 · +0.8 | 43.8h |
| BetVictor | 1.22 · +0.0 | 5.75 · +0.0 | 12.0 · +0.0 | 43.8h |
| Coral | 1.28 · +0.0 | 5.75 · +0.0 | 11.0 · +0.0 | 43.8h |
| Ladbrokes | 1.28 · -0.1 | 5.75 · -0.8 | 10.0 · +0.9 | 43.8h |
| WilliamHill | 1.25 · +0.6 | 5.0 · +0.2 | 11.0 · -0.8 | 43.8h |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 77 snapshots · last 43.8h before kick-off · biggest step: yes -1.9 pts at 4.7d
2.2Yes 42% ▼ -1.9 ptsopened 2.11.61No 58% ▲ +1.9 ptsopened 1.66
Yes No consensus of 4 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 2.2 ▼ -1.9 | 1.61 ▲ +1.9 | 43.8h |
| Betfair | 2.2 ▼ -1.6 | 1.62 ▲ +1.6 | 43.8h |
| BetVictor | 2.15 · +0.0 | 1.62 · +0.0 | 43.8h |
| WilliamHill | 2.1 · +0.0 | 1.67 · +0.0 | 43.8h |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 77 snapshots · last 43.8h before kick-off
1.68Over 57% · -0.5 ptsopened 1.662.26Under 43% · +0.5 ptsopened 2.28
Over Under consensus of 4 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.68 · -0.5 | 2.26 · +0.5 | 43.8h |
| bet365 | 1.66 · +0.0 | 2.2 · +0.0 | 43.8h |
| Betfair | 1.62 · +0.2 | 2.25 · -0.2 | 43.8h |
| BetVictor | 1.62 · +0.0 | 2.12 · +0.0 | 43.8h |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 43.8h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
1.27Home 75% P 75%5.75Draw 17% P 16%11.0Away 9% P 8%
Double Chance
1.05AC Milan or Draw 45%1.14AC Milan or Lecce 42%3.75Draw or Lecce 13%
Draw No Bet
1.071 89%9.02 11%
Both Teams To Score
2.2Yes 42%1.61No 58%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.66Over 57% P 57%2.2Under 43% P 43%
Total Corners
7.0Under 6 13%2.756 - 8 32%2.759 - 11 32%5.512 - 14 16%13.0Over 14 7%
Number of Cards
2.51.57Over 59% P 65%2.25Under 41% P 35%
3.52.0Over 46% P 45%1.72Under 54% P 55%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 75–77.5% · away 7.5–10% · 515 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 75% | 76% | 77% | +0.9 |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 15% | -0.5 |
| Away | 8% | 9% | 8% | -0.4 |
In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 49% · over 2.5 66%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 56% | 56% | -0.2 |
Federico La Penna
- Career
- 103 matches · 13 seasons
- Cards / match
- 4.58 (4.39 yellow · 0.06 red)
- Fouls / match
- 27.2 · 5.8 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.31
- Cards to home side
- 48%
Style in Serie A (5-year window · 52 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.73 | 4.49 | +0.34 | 61 |
| Fouls / match | 26.3 | 25.2 | +0.77 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.7 | 5.6 | -0.17 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.31 | 0.31 | -0.13 | 56 |
| Time added | 6.8 | 6.4 | +0.78 | 78 |
- First card
- 33' on average
- Card timing
- 15% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 48% (league 46%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.28
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 41' | 8 |
| 2026-05-17 · Lecce | 5 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 54' | 7 |
| 2026-04-26 | 4 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 37' | 8 |
| 2026-04-06 · Lecce | 2 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 47' | 5 |
| 2026-03-15 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 37' | 12 |
| 2026-02-14 | 6 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 9' | 6 |
| 2026-01-31 | 2 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 44' | 9 |
| 2026-01-12 | 7 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 15' | 4 |
| 2026-01-04 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 20' | 10 |
| 2025-12-28 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 19' | 6 |