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Serie A · Matchweek 5

Momentum

JuventusAtalanta
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Juventus Stadium, Torino
Capacity
45,500
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Luciano Spalletti · Maurizio Sarri
Position
8 · 11
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Luca Zufferli

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
25.3° (feels 25.1°)
Wind
1.7
Humidity
48%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Roma 4400 12111 12 WWWW
2 Inter 4400 1367 12 WWWW
3 Como 4310 945 10 DWWW
4 Lazio 4310 633 10 WWWD
5 Cagliari 4301 422 9 WLWW
6 AC Milan 4220 743 8 WWDD
7 Frosinone 4211 743 7 LWWD
8 Juventus 4211 642 7 WWDL
9 Sassuolo 4211 871 7 LWDW
10 Napoli 4202 651 6 WLLW
11 Atalanta 4202 550 6 WWLL
12 Lecce 4202 57-2 6 WLLW
13 Udinese 4112 810-2 4 DWLL
14 Torino 4103 47-3 3 LLWL
15 Fiorentina 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
16 Bologna 4013 25-3 1 LLDL
17 Parma 4013 26-4 1 LLDL
18 Monza 4013 611-5 1 LLDL
19 Genoa 4013 28-6 1 LLLD
20 Venezia 4004 411-7 0 LLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Juventus

WWDLW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 11 GA 4 · xG 9.01–2.62 · xPts 11.06

  • W H NEC Nijmegen 5–0 xG 3.23–0.77 UEFA EL
  • L A Sassuolo 2–3 xG 1.12–0.92 ITA SA
  • D H AC Milan 1–1 xG 1.24–0.11 ITA SA
  • W H Parma 2–0 xG 1.64–0.27 ITA SA
  • W A Frosinone 1–0 xG 1.77–0.55 ITA SA

Atalanta

WWWLL 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 5 · xG 4.64–8.78 · xPts 4.6

  • L H Cagliari 1–2 xG 1.58–1.12 ITA SA
  • L A Roma 1–2 xG 0.88–3.31 ITA SA
  • W H Bologna 1–0 xG 0.25–0.91 ITA SA
  • W A Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–0 xG 1.02–0.89 UEFA ECL
  • W H Sassuolo 2–1 xG 0.9–2.54 ITA SA

full sample 10 meetings 2021–2026 · 1 on neutral ground

Recurring referee: Simone Sozza · 2 of these meetings

Last 10

Juventus 26 draws2 Atalanta

Goals 11–13 · Juventus hosting: 0W 3D 1L · Atalanta hosting: 0W 3D 2L

At Juventus Stadium: 4 meetings · Juventus 0 · draws 3 · Atalanta 1 · 4.0 goals per match · last away win Mar 2025

All-time since 2007: 36 meetings · Juventus 20 · draws 13 · Atalanta 3

This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days

MetricFixtureLeagueΔn
Goals per match2.402.51-0.1110
Both teams score50%47%+3%10
Over 2.5 goals30%48%-18%10
Corners10.78.8+1.910
Cards3.74.0-0.310

1 goalless · 3 with 4+ goals · 0.70 first-half goals per match · red card in 1

How these games go · 10 with event data

JuventusAtalanta
Scored first3 of 106 of 10
Scored first and won22
Won from behind00

first goal on average in minute 42 · a side came back in 5 · goal after the 75th minute in 5 · penalty scored in 2

When the goals come · all goals, 9 meetings

0-15'1
16-30'3
31-45'3
46-60'6
61-75'5
76-90'6

8 equalisers · 2 penalties · 1 header

Expected goals · last 4 with xG

Juventus 1.26 xGper match2.34 xG Atalanta

Deserved on xG: Juventus 1 · level 0 · Atalanta 3 — actual wins in those games 1 / 1

Against the market · 10 with closing odds

Favourite won 1 (10%), drew 6, upset 3 · market favoured Juventus 7×, Atalanta 3× · avg favourite 43%, avg price of the actual result 31%

Fixture specialists

  • 3 Ademola Lookman Atalanta · in 2 games · last Mar 2025
  • 2 Mateo Retegui Atalanta · in 2 games · last Mar 2025
  • 2 Teun Koopmeiners Atalanta · last Mar 2024
  • 2 Arkadiusz Milik Juventus · in 2 games · last Mar 2024
  • 2 Danilo Juventus · in 2 games · last Jan 2023

Last meeting · 2026-04-11 · ITA SA

Atalanta 0-1 Juventus · ref Fabio Maresca

  • 48' Jérémie Boga 0–1

xG 2.18 – 0.97 · corners 15 · cards 4

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·

Match result

45.1%Juventus P 57%28.8%Draw P 25%26.1%Atalanta P 18%

Over / under 2.5

38.2%Over 2.5 P 51%61.8%Under 2.5 P 49%

Both teams to score

44.0%Yes56.0%No

Expected

Juventus goals
1.3 (0–3)
Atalanta goals
0.92 (0–2)
Corners
10.34 (6–15)
Cards
3.29 (1–6)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

57.4%Juventus22.4%Draw20.2%Atalanta

Over / under 2.5

54.9%Over 2.545.1%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

53.8%Yes46.2%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 36 matches since 2007

Juventus 2013 draws3 Atalanta

Goals 69–35 · 2.89 per match · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 53%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Juventus 26 draws2 Atalanta

Goals 11–13 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Juventus 13 draws1 Atalanta

Goals 5–8 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Atalanta 0–1 Juventus ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Juventus 1–1 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Juventus 0–4 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Atalanta 1–1 Juventus ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Juventus 2–2 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Atalanta 0–0 Juventus ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Atalanta 0–2 Juventus ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Juventus 3–3 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Atalanta 1–1 Juventus ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Juventus 0–1 Atalanta neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricJuventus all · 4Juventus at home · 2Atalanta all · 4Atalanta away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Juventus · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.27) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.64

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.275
Early press (0-15, level)-0.165
Late push (76+, level)+1.292
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.212

Game state

When ahead+0.423
When level+0.215
When behind+0.142
10 min after conceding-0.112
10 min after scoring+0.645

Situations

At home+0.163
Away+0.402
4+ days rest+0.275

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.152
As favourite+0.275

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.285
Conceded when ahead-0.343
Conceded late (76+)-0.494

Ahead vs level +0.20 · Behind vs level -0.07

Atalanta · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.46

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.066
Early press (0-15, level)-0.016
Late push (76+, level)-0.393
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.582

Game state

When ahead-0.174
When level-0.086
When behind+0.312
10 min after conceding-0.463
10 min after scoring+0.205

Situations

At home+0.024
Away-0.212
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.023
As favourite+0.025

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.466
Conceded when ahead+0.404
Conceded late (76+)+0.076

Congested vs rested -0.08 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level +0.39

Juventus

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 75%1.331.331.331.380.53
4-4-21 25%3.02.00.01.640.27

Atalanta

Current: winless 2 · scoring 5 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-34 100%1.51.251.250.911.97

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 79 snapshots · last 42.0h before kick-off · biggest step: home +1.5 pts at 45.0h

1.69Home 57% ▲ +1.8 ptsopened 1.753.86Draw 25% · -0.2 ptsopened 3.845.31Away 18% ▼ -1.6 ptsopened 4.89
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 7 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.69 ▲ +1.83.86 · -0.25.31 ▼ -1.642.0h
bet3651.7 · -0.23.9 · -0.24.75 · +0.442.0h
Betfair1.67 · +0.53.9 · -0.75.0 · +0.242.0h
BetVictor1.65 · +0.73.75 · +0.35.0 · -1.042.0h
Coral1.7 ▼ -1.13.8 ▲ +1.24.8 · -0.042.0h
Ladbrokes1.7 ▼ -1.13.8 ▲ +1.24.8 · -0.042.0h
WilliamHill1.7 · +0.63.6 · +0.34.75 · -0.942.0h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 42.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.7Home 56% P 57%3.9Draw 24% P 25%4.75Away 20% P 18%

Double Chance

1.18Juventus or Draw 40%1.25Juventus or Atalanta 38%2.1Draw or Atalanta 22%

Draw No Bet

1.281 73%3.52 27%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52%1.95No 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 51%1.9Under 50% P 49%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.52.0Over 46% P 42%1.72Under 54% P 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 17.5–20% · 762 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home57%56%53%-2.8
Draw25%25%26%+1.0
Away18%19%21%+1.8

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Luca Zufferli

Career
44 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
3.11 (3.0 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
23.6 · 7.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 41 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.14.49-1.982
Fouls / match23.625.2-0.95
Fouls per card8.05.6+2.18 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.290.31-0.2546
Time added6.86.4+0.7878
First card
36' on average
Card timing
20% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.4

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-23 10 190 52'5
2026-07-30 31 190 8'6
2026-05-24 · Juventus 30 200 64'28
2026-05-17 20 240 65'7
2026-05-10 · Atalanta 60 251 34'9
2026-05-04 40 220 25'3
2026-04-18 40 201 29'6
2026-04-05 10 240 14'5
2026-03-08 20 260 61'6
2026-01-30 50 243 64'8