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Serie A · Matchweek 4

Momentum

TorinoRoma
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino
Capacity
28,177
Surface
grass
Attendance
21,294

Teams

Coaches
Ignazio Abate · Gian Gasperini
Position
14 · 2
Formation
5-3-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Fabio Maresca

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
26.2° (feels 26.2°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
51%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Roma 4400 12111 12 WWWW
2 Inter 4400 1367 12 WWWW
3 Como 4310 945 10 DWWW
4 Lazio 4310 633 10 WWWD
5 Cagliari 4301 422 9 WLWW
6 AC Milan 4220 743 8 WWDD
7 Frosinone 4211 743 7 LWWD
8 Juventus 4211 642 7 WWDL
9 Sassuolo 4211 871 7 LWDW
10 Napoli 4202 651 6 WLLW
11 Atalanta 4202 550 6 WWLL
12 Lecce 4202 57-2 6 WLLW
13 Udinese 4112 810-2 4 DWLL
14 Torino 4103 47-3 3 LLWL
15 Fiorentina 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
16 Bologna 4013 25-3 1 LLDL
17 Parma 4013 26-4 1 LLDL
18 Monza 4013 611-5 1 LLDL
19 Genoa 4013 28-6 1 LLLD
20 Venezia 4004 411-7 0 LLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Torino

LDLLW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 9 · xG 5.23–9.04 · xPts 4.51

  • W A Fiorentina 2–1 xG 0.84–1.41 ITA SA
  • L A Sassuolo 1–2 xG 1.21–1.8 ITA SA
  • L H AC Milan 1–2 xG 1.06–2.24 ITA SA
  • D H Juventus 2–2 xG 1.01–2.3 ITA SA
  • L A Cagliari 1–2 xG 1.11–1.28 ITA SA

Roma

WWWWD 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 13 GA 2 · xG 12.35–3.6 · xPts 11.29

  • D A Fenerbahçe 1–1 xG 0.45–1.18 UEFA CL
  • W H Atalanta 2–1 xG 3.31–0.88 ITA SA
  • W A Lecce 4–0 xG 2.72–0.77 ITA SA
  • W H Fiorentina 4–0 xG 3.1–0.32 ITA SA
  • W A Hellas Verona 2–0 xG 2.78–0.44 ITA SA

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

17.0%Torino P 14%22.9%Draw P 22%60.1%Roma P 64%

Over / under 2.5

50.4%Over 2.5 P 56%49.6%Under 2.5 P 44%

Both teams to score

48.7%Yes51.3%No

Expected

Torino goals
0.86 (0–2)
Roma goals
1.83 (0–4)
Corners
7.26 (4–11)
Cards
3.53 (1–6)

Earlier: day before — 17.0% / 22.9% / 60.1%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

28.7%Torino25.0%Draw46.3%Roma

Over / under 2.5

52.4%Over 2.547.6%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

55.0%Yes45.0%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2away0.5090.241
bttsno0.6670.474
ou_2_5under0.7020.509

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 35 matches since 2006

Torino 56 draws24 Roma

Goals 31–62 · 2.66 per match · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 46%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Torino 12 draws7 Roma

Goals 5–16 · 2.1 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 20%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Torino 10 draws4 Roma

Goals 1–7 · 1.6 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 0%

Recent meetings

  • L Torino 0–2 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Torino 0–2 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 0–1 Torino ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Torino 0–2 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Roma 1–0 Torino ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Roma 3–2 Torino ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Torino 1–1 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Torino 0–1 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Roma 1–1 Torino ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Torino 0–3 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricTorino all · 4Torino at home · 2Roma all · 4Roma away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Torino · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.68

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.024
Early press (0-15, level)-0.184
Late push (76+, level)+0.302
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.093

Game state

When level+0.044
When behind-0.154
10 min after conceding-0.384
10 min after scoring+0.683

Situations

At home-0.192
Away+0.142
4+ days rest-0.024

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.192
v mid-tier opponents+0.142
As underdog-0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.374
Conceded late (76+)+0.244

Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.20

Roma · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.66) · stands out: when level +0.82

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.665
Early press (0-15, level)+0.385
Late push (76+, level)+0.042

Game state

When ahead+0.365
When level+0.825
10 min after conceding-0.312
10 min after scoring+0.545

Situations

At home+1.332
Away+0.173
4+ days rest+0.665

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.912
As favourite+0.665

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.195
Conceded when ahead-0.195
Conceded late (76+)-0.563

Ahead vs level -0.46 · Behind vs level -0.11

Torino

Current: winless 1 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
5-3-22 50%0.00.52.01.01.94
3-4-2-11 25%0.01.02.01.062.24
3-1-4-21 25%3.02.01.00.841.41

Roma

Current: unbeaten 12 · wins 1 · scoring 22 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-13 75%3.03.330.02.630.62
3-4-1-21 25%3.02.01.03.310.88

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away +2.6 pts at 30m

7.06Home 14% ▼ -2.4 ptsopened 5.974.43Draw 22% ▼ -1.0 ptsopened 4.221.5Away 64% ▲ +3.5 ptsopened 1.58
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%60%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle7.06 ▼ -2.44.43 ▼ -1.01.5 ▲ +3.510m
bet3656.0 · -0.14.2 ▼ -1.21.53 ▲ +1.310m
Betfair6.5 ▼ -2.54.2 ▼ -2.11.47 ▲ +4.610m
BetVictor7.0 ▼ -2.74.4 ▼ -1.81.45 ▲ +4.410m
Coral5.75 · -0.14.2 ▼ -1.31.55 ▲ +1.410m
Ladbrokes5.75 · +0.24.2 ▼ -1.51.55 ▲ +1.310m
Unibet5.6 · +0.53.9 · -0.61.57 · +0.110m
WilliamHill6.0 ▼ -1.24.0 · -1.01.53 ▲ +2.210m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

6.0Home 16% P 14%4.2Draw 22% P 22%1.53Away 62% P 64%

Double Chance

2.5Torino or Draw 19%1.2Torino or Roma 39%1.12Draw or Roma 42%

Draw No Bet

4.331 22%1.22 78%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52%1.95No 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 56%2.1Under 45% P 44%

Total Corners

5.0Under 6 17%2.46 - 8 36%3.09 - 11 29%7.012 - 14 12%19.0Over 14 5%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56% P 57%2.1Under 44% P 43%
4.52.0Over 46% P 38%1.72Under 54% P 62%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 12.5–15% · away 62.5–65% · 233 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home14%14%16%+1.8
Draw22%22%23%+0.7
Away64%64%61%-2.5

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 49% · over 2.5 55%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.556%56%56%-0.2

Fabio Maresca

Career
165 matches · 14 seasons
Cards / match
5.7 (5.35 yellow · 0.2 red)
Fouls / match
25.0 · 4.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 67 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.394.49+1.2893
Fouls / match25.525.2+0.27
Fouls per card4.75.6-1.10 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.280.31-0.3244
Time added7.26.4+1.6195
First card
31' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.29

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-24 80 370 22'10
2026-05-24 63 262 20'8
2026-05-17 · Roma 52 320 21'9
2026-05-03 81 320 9'7
2026-04-20 50 210 62'9
2026-04-11 40 180 66'8
2026-04-06 50 220 50'6
2026-03-13 · Torino 40 300 59'12
2026-01-25 41 310 56'7
2026-01-14 30 250 17'8