Rating 7.08 (90th pct) · G+A 2 + 2 (9% of team goals) · 63% of minutes
Team 1.63 ppg with (27) · 1.42 without (12)
Serie A · Matchweek 4
Momentum
– LazioAC Milan –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Lazio | at home | Stat | league | away | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.2 #13 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 58.5 #5 |
| 13.0 #13 | – | Shots total | 14.6 | – | 13.5 #11 |
| 4.2 #11 | – | Shots on target | 4.9 | – | 4.2 #11 |
| 5.0 #7 | – | Corners | 4.7 | – | 3.0 #16 |
| 15.2 #3 | – | Fouls | 11.2 | – | 10.5 #12 |
| 1.5 #11 | – | Offsides | 2.1 | – | 0.8 #18 |
| 14.2 #13 | – | Tackles | 16.0 | – | 14.2 #13 |
| 83.0 #15 | – | Attacks | 92.8 | – | 92.0 #12 |
| 35.2 #15 | – | Dangerous attacks | 44.7 | – | 45.2 #9 |
| 415.5 #12 | – | Passes | 459.1 | – | 541.0 #4 |
| 2.0 #5 | – | Yellowcards | 1.5 | – | 2.0 #5 |
| 1.2 #8 | – | Assists | 1.2 | – | 1.5 #5 |
| – #9 | – | Btts | 60.0 | – | – #5 |
| – #2 | – | Cleansheet | 20.0 | – | – #6 |
| – #2 | – | Draw | 15.0 | – | – #1 |
| 1.4 #12 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 1.6 #8 |
| 0.1 #8 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.0 | – | 0.1 #9 |
| – #10 | – | Failed to score | 20.0 | – | – #10 |
| 1.5 #8 | 1.5 | Goals | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 #6 |
| 0.8 #18 | 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 #14 |
| – | – | Injury time goals | 0.5 | – | 0.5 #4 |
| 8.8 #7 | – | Interceptions | 8.5 | – | 7.5 #13 |
| – #16 | – | Lost | 42.5 | – | – #16 |
| 6.9 #7 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.9 #6 |
| 3.2 #10 | – | Shots blocked | 3.6 | – | 3.2 #10 |
| 7.8 #15 | – | Shots insidebox | 9.6 | – | 10.5 #5 |
| 5.5 #10 | – | Shots off target | 6.0 | – | 6.0 #8 |
| 5.2 #7 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.9 | – | 3.0 #18 |
| – #3 | – | Win | 42.5 | – | – #6 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 37 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.92 (home 1.41 · away 1.51)
- Home / draw / away
- 41% · 16% · 43%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 59% · 57%
- Cards / match
- 3.19 (reds 0.03)
Trends
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Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Lazio · Last 365 days
Rating 6.96 (64th pct) · G+A 3 + 3 (14% of team goals) · 54% of minutes
Team 1.57 ppg with (23) · 1.56 without (16)
Rating 6.92 (65th pct) · G+A 5 + 2 (16% of team goals) · 49% of minutes
Team 1.38 ppg with (21) · 1.78 without (18)
AC Milan · Last 365 days
Rating 7.21 (87th pct) · G+A 7 + 6 (23% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Team 1.9 ppg with (29) · 1.55 without (11)
Rating 7.23 (89th pct) · G+A 1 + 2 (5% of team goals) · 78% of minutes
Team 1.94 ppg with (32) · 1.25 without (8)
Rating 7.08 (92th pct) · G+A 3 + 3 (11% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Team 1.68 ppg with (31) · 2.22 without (9)
Absences
Lazio
- injury Alessio Furlanetto #21 key player goalkeeper · Cruciate Ligament Injury · 9 missed
- injury Filipe Bordon defender · Metatarsal Fracture · 15 missed
- injury Nicolò Rovella #19 key player midfielder · Calf Injury · 2 missed · until 2026-09-18
- injury Patric #18 key player defender · Muscle Strain · 9 missed
AC Milan
- injury Warren Bondo midfielder · Unknown Injury · 71 missed
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 4
Venue
- Stadium
- Stadio Olimpico, Roma
- Capacity
- 72,698
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 10,500
Teams
- Coaches
- Gennaro Gattuso · Ruben Amorim
- Position
- 3 · 5
- Formation
- 4-3-3 · 3-4-2-1
Referee
Matteo Marcenaro
Weather
- Conditions
- clear sky
- Temperature
- 25.8° (feels 26.0°)
- Wind
- 3.1
- Humidity
- 59%
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2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Inter |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 3 |  Como |
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  Lazio |
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | WWWD |
| 5 |  Cagliari |
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | WLWW |
| 6 |  AC Milan |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 8 | WWDD |
| 7 |  Frosinone |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | LWWD |
| 8 |  Juventus |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | WWDL |
| 9 |  Sassuolo |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 | LWDW |
| 10 |  Napoli |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | WLLW |
| 11 |  Atalanta |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | WWLL |
| 12 |  Lecce |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 | WLLW |
| 13 |  Udinese |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4 | DWLL |
| 14 |  Torino |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 | LLWL |
| 15 |  Fiorentina |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 | LLLW |
| 16 |  Bologna |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | LLDL |
| 17 |  Parma |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 | LLDL |
| 18 |  Monza |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1 | LLDL |
| 19 |  Genoa |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 | LLLD |
| 20 |  Venezia |
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 9 | WWWW |
| 2 | Roma |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WWWW |
| 3 | Sassuolo |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | LWDW |
| 4 | Atalanta |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | WWLL |
| 5 | Juventus |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WWDL |
| 6 | Lazio |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | WWWD |
| 7 | AC Milan |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | WWDD |
| 8 | Como |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | DWWW |
| 9 | Frosinone |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | LWWD |
| 10 | Napoli |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | WLLW |
| 11 | Cagliari |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | WLWW |
| 12 | Lecce |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | WLLW |
| 13 | Bologna |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | LLDL |
| 14 | Udinese |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | DWLL |
| 15 | Parma |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | LLDL |
| 16 | Genoa |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLD |
| 17 | Monza |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | LLDL |
| 18 | Torino |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | LLWL |
| 19 | Venezia |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 | LLLL |
| 20 | Fiorentina |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | LLLW |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Como |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | DWWW |
| 2 | Roma |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | WWWW |
| 3 | Cagliari |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WLWW |
| 4 | Lazio |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WWWD |
| 5 | AC Milan |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | WWDD |
| 6 | Frosinone |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | LWWD |
| 7 | Napoli |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | WLLW |
| 8 | Lecce |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | WLLW |
| 9 | Inter |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | WWWW |
| 10 | Juventus |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | WWDL |
| 11 | Torino |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | LLWL |
| 12 | Udinese |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | DWLL |
| 13 | Fiorentina |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | LLLW |
| 14 | Sassuolo |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 | LWDW |
| 15 | Monza |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 | LLDL |
| 16 | Atalanta |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | WWLL |
| 17 | Genoa |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | LLLD |
| 18 | Bologna |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | LLDL |
| 19 | Venezia |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LLLL |
| 20 | Parma |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | LLDL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation
Lazio
LWWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 4 · xG 5.51–6.8 · xPts 6.18
- W
A
Udinese
2–1
xG 1.87–0.87
ITA SA
- W
H
Genoa
1–0
xG 1.15–0.56
ITA SA
- W
A
Bologna
1–0
xG 0.64–2.31
ITA SA
- W
H
Pisa
2–1
xG 1.25–1.49
ITA SA - L
A
Roma
0–2
xG 0.6–1.57
ITA SA
LWWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 4 · xG 5.51–6.8 · xPts 6.18
- W
A
Udinese
2–1
xG 1.87–0.87
ITA SA
- W
H
Genoa
1–0
xG 1.15–0.56
ITA SA
- W
A
Bologna
1–0
xG 0.64–2.31
ITA SA
- W
H
Pisa
2–1
xG 1.25–1.49
ITA SA
- L
A
Roma
0–2
xG 0.6–1.57
ITA SA
AC Milan
WLWWD 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 8.48–7.43 · xPts 7.3
- D
A
Juventus
1–1
xG 0.11–1.24
ITA SA
- W
H
Venezia
2–0
xG 2.57–1.05
ITA SA
- W
A
Torino
2–1
xG 2.24–1.06
ITA SA
- L
H
Cagliari
1–2
xG 1.77–2.53
ITA SA
- W
A
Genoa
2–1
xG 1.79–1.55
ITA SA
WLWWD 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 8.48–7.43 · xPts 7.3
- D
A
Juventus
1–1
xG 0.11–1.24
ITA SA
- W
H
Venezia
2–0
xG 2.57–1.05
ITA SA
- W
A
Torino
2–1
xG 2.24–1.06
ITA SA
- L
H
Cagliari
1–2
xG 1.77–2.53
ITA SA
- W
A
Genoa
2–1
xG 1.79–1.55
ITA SA
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·
Match result
33.3%Lazio P 24%30.2%Draw P 30%36.5%AC Milan P 47%
Over / under 2.5
35.8%Over 2.5 P 43%64.2%Under 2.5 P 57%
Both teams to score
43.2%Yes56.8%No
Expected
- Lazio goals
- 1.03 (0–2)
- AC Milan goals
- 1.1 (0–2)
- Corners
- 7.59 (4–12)
- Cards
- 3.95 (1–7)
Earlier: day before — 33.3% / 30.2% / 36.5%
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
32.8%Lazio27.4%Draw39.7%AC Milan
Over / under 2.5
48.2%Over 2.551.8%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
52.7%Yes47.3%No
Scored
| Market | Observed | Log loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2 | draw | 1.197 | 0.731 |
| ou_2_5 | over | 1.026 | 0.823 |
| btts | yes | 0.84 | 0.646 |
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 43 matches since 2005
Goals 48–68 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 51%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 12–13 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 7–6 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%
Recent meetings
- D Lazio 2–2 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- W Lazio 1–0 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- L AC Milan 1–0 Lazio ITA SA · Regular Season
- W AC Milan 1–2 Lazio ITA SA · Regular Season
- D Lazio 2–2 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- L Lazio 0–1 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- L AC Milan 2–0 Lazio neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
- L AC Milan 2–0 Lazio neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
- W Lazio 4–0 AC Milan neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
- L Lazio 1–2 AC Milan neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
| Metric | Lazio all · 4 | Lazio at home · 2 | AC Milan all · 4 | AC Milan away · 3 |
|---|
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Lazio · 4 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.62
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.034
Early press (0-15, level)+0.254
Late push (76+, level)-0.102
Game state
When ahead+0.134
When level-0.104
10 min after conceding-0.612
10 min after scoring+0.624
Situations
At home-0.172
Away+0.232
4+ days rest+0.034
Opposition
Evenly matched+0.173
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.004
Conceded when ahead-0.064
Conceded late (76+)-0.244
Ahead vs level +0.23 · Behind vs level +0.30
AC Milan · 5 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.45) · stands out: as favourite +0.69
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.455
Early press (0-15, level)+0.485
Late push (76+, level)+0.022
Game state
When ahead-0.083
When level+0.495
When behind+0.712
10 min after conceding+0.404
10 min after scoring+0.564
Situations
At home+0.472
Away+0.443
4+ days rest+0.455
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.102
As favourite+0.693
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead+0.003
Conceded late (76+)-0.055
Ahead vs level -0.56 · Behind vs level +0.22
Lazio
Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 5 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 4 100% | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.75 | 1.37 | 1.29 |
AC Milan
Current: winless 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 100% | 2.0 | 1.75 | 1.0 | 1.59 | 1.29 |
| Metric | Lazio all · 10 | Lazio at home · 10 | AC Milan all · 10 | AC Milan away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.20 | 1.70 |
| W / D / L | 6 / 2 / 2 | 5 / 3 / 2 | 3 / 3 / 4 | 5 / 2 / 3 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals against / match | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.37 | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.35 |
| xG against / match | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.18 |
| xG difference | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.17 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.13 | 0.11 | -0.22 | -0.15 |
| xPts / match | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.45 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.60 | 0.42 | -0.16 | 0.25 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 40% | 50% | 50% | 60% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.67 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Came back from behind | 67% | 60% | 20% | 25% |
| Leads held | 75% | 71% | 60% | 83% |
| Minutes leading | 33% | 33% | 14% | 19% |
| Minutes level | 42% | 40% | 49% | 56% |
| Minutes trailing | 25% | 26% | 37% | 24% |
| First goal (min) | 39 | 35 | 58 | 59 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 33 | 34 | 40 | 57 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 60% | 53% | 92% | 83% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 54% | 53% | 50% | 60% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Late goals against | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 46% | 48% | 53% | 53% |
| Shots | 11.7 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 11.0 |
| On target | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 3.4 |
| Shot conversion | 13% | 13% | 9% | 11% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 60% | 65% | 74% |
| Big chances created | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Corners | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| xG from set plays | 20% | 22% | 30% | 30% |
| Goals from headers | 13% | 13% | 8% | 8% |
| Pressure index | 11.1 | 12.8 | 14.4 | 12.8 |
| Dominant minutes | 44.7 | 47.8 | 53.8 | 50.2 |
| Pass accuracy | 86% | 88% | 87% | 86% |
| Fouls | 13.6 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | 2.50 | 2.20 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Lazio
0–15'21
16–30'13
31–45'32
46–60'41
61–75'13
76–90'43
AC Milan
0–15'13
16–30'03
31–45'01
46–60'14
61–75'60
76–90'43
Lazio
Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 5 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 10 100% | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.37 | 1.32 |
AC Milan
Current: winless 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 50% | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.53 | 1.21 |
| 3-5-2 | 5 50% | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.61 |
| Metric | Lazio all · 39 | Lazio at home · 20 | AC Milan all · 40 | AC Milan away · 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 39 | 20 | 40 | 21 |
| Points per game | 1.56 | 1.55 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| W / D / L | 16 / 13 / 10 | 8 / 7 / 5 | 20 / 12 / 8 | 11 / 7 / 3 |
| Goals for / match | 1.10 | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.48 |
| Goals against / match | 1.03 | 1.35 | 0.97 | 0.86 |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 30% | 35% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 38% | 30% | 20% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 45% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 45% | 45% | 43% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.18 | 1.24 | 1.58 | 1.34 |
| xG against / match | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.30 | 1.29 |
| xG difference | -0.19 | -0.17 | 0.28 | 0.05 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.07 | 0.06 | -0.18 | 0.14 |
| xPts / match | 1.25 | 1.26 | 1.54 | 1.40 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.50 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 46% | 50% | 58% | 62% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.44 | 2.40 | 2.43 | 2.38 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.93 | 1.14 |
| Came back from behind | 41% | 50% | 53% | 57% |
| Leads held | 70% | 62% | 74% | 73% |
| Minutes leading | 23% | 28% | 27% | 27% |
| Minutes level | 54% | 46% | 53% | 55% |
| Minutes trailing | 23% | 26% | 20% | 18% |
| First goal (min) | 44 | 35 | 47 | 48 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 35 | 31 | 44 | 50 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 63% | 54% | 66% | 68% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 52% | 48% | 51% | 50% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.38 | 0.45 | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| Late goals against | 0.18 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 49% | 48% | 53% | 51% |
| Shots | 11.0 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 10.5 |
| On target | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 11% | 11% | 14% |
| Shots inside box | 60% | 61% | 69% | 72% |
| Big chances created | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Corners | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| xG from set plays | 29% | 28% | 29% | 30% |
| Goals from headers | 9% | 12% | 9% | 6% |
| Pressure index | 12.1 | 13.6 | 15.8 | 12.4 |
| Dominant minutes | 45.1 | 47.2 | 51.8 | 46.0 |
| Pass accuracy | 86% | 86% | 87% | 86% |
| Fouls | 11.1 | 11.6 | 10.1 | 10.2 |
| Cards | 2.28 | 2.50 | 1.85 | 1.86 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Lazio
0–15'55
16–30'57
31–45'67
46–60'77
61–75'57
76–90'157
AC Milan
0–15'56
16–30'37
31–45'116
46–60'137
61–75'105
76–90'148
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Lazio · 39 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.08) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +0.74
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.0839
Early press (0-15, level)+0.3239
Late push (76+, level)-0.0819
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.1413
Game state
When ahead+0.0523
When level+0.1839
When behind-0.1317
10 min after conceding-0.3423
10 min after scoring+0.3724
Situations
With ten men+0.066
Against ten men+0.413
At home+0.0720
Away+0.1019
4+ days rest+0.0638
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.3112
v mid-tier opponents+0.158
v bottom-tier opponents+0.745
As favourite+0.3311
Evenly matched+0.1716
As underdog-0.2712
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0739
Conceded when ahead+0.0523
Conceded late (76+)-0.1637
Congested vs rested +0.75 · Ahead vs level -0.14 · Behind vs level -0.32
AC Milan · 40 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.24) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +0.92
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.2440
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0540
Late push (76+, level)+0.0719
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.6410
Game state
When ahead+0.0927
When level+0.1740
When behind+0.6117
10 min after conceding+0.0726
10 min after scoring+0.6432
Situations
With ten men-0.035
Against ten men-0.782
At home+0.3119
Away+0.1721
3 days rest or fewer+0.722
4+ days rest+0.2138
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.1412
v mid-tier opponents+0.2510
v bottom-tier opponents+0.924
As favourite+0.4725
Evenly matched-0.1313
As underdog-0.322
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0540
Conceded when ahead+0.0927
Conceded late (76+)-0.0636
Congested vs rested +0.52 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level +0.43
Lazio
Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 5 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 37 95% | 1.54 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.13 | 1.37 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 2 5% | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.03 | 1.32 |
AC Milan
Current: winless 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5-2 | 33 82% | 1.91 | 1.42 | 0.85 | 1.56 | 1.31 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 12% | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.53 | 1.21 |
| 3-1-4-2 | 1 2% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.66 | 1.14 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.38 | 1.5 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away +2.5 pts at 11.0h · late move: away +1.1 pts inside the final hour
4.08Home 24% ▼ -5.1 ptsopened 3.343.29Draw 30% · -0.0 ptsopened 3.272.09Away 47% ▲ +5.2 ptsopened 2.34
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 4.08 ▼ -5.1 | 3.29 · -0.0 | 2.09 ▲ +5.2 | 10m |
| bet365 | 4.0 ▼ -5.4 | 3.2 · -0.4 | 2.05 ▲ +5.8 | 10m |
| Betfair | 3.9 ▼ -4.3 | 3.1 · +0.1 | 2.05 ▲ +4.2 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 3.7 ▼ -3.6 | 3.3 ▼ -1.1 | 2.05 ▲ +4.7 | 10m |
| Coral | 3.8 ▼ -4.4 | 3.1 · +0.8 | 2.1 ▲ +3.6 | 10m |
| Ladbrokes | 3.75 ▼ -4.2 | 3.1 ▲ +1.1 | 2.1 ▲ +3.1 | 10m |
| Unibet | 3.3 · -0.1 | 3.1 · -0.1 | 2.23 · +0.2 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 3.5 ▼ -3.5 | 3.1 · -0.1 | 2.1 ▲ +3.6 | 10m |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off
1.95Yes 48% · +0.0 ptsopened 1.951.8No 52% · +0.0 ptsopened 1.8
Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.95 · +0.0 | 1.8 · +0.0 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.8 ▲ +2.0 | 1.95 ▼ -2.0 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.87 · +0.8 | 1.83 · -0.8 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.92 · +0.7 | 1.82 · -0.7 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 1.91 · +0.0 | 1.85 · +0.0 | 10m |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: over +1.0 pts at 7.0h
2.23Over 43% ▲ +1.4 ptsopened 2.311.71Under 57% ▼ -1.4 ptsopened 1.67
Over Under consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.23 ▲ +1.4 | 1.71 ▼ -1.4 | 10m |
| bet365 | 2.2 · +0.0 | 1.66 · +0.0 | 10m |
| Betfair | 2.1 ▲ +1.9 | 1.65 ▼ -1.9 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 2.07 ▲ +1.6 | 1.65 ▼ -1.6 | 10m |
| Unibet | 2.28 · +0.2 | 1.6 · -0.2 | 10m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
4.0Home 24% P 24%3.2Draw 30% P 30%2.05Away 46% P 47%
Double Chance
1.7Lazio or Draw 28%1.33Lazio or AC Milan 35%1.28Draw or AC Milan 37%
Draw No Bet
2.621 35%1.442 65%
Both Teams To Score
1.95Yes 48%1.8No 52%
Goals Over/Under
2.52.2Over 43% P 43%1.66Under 57% P 57%
Total Corners
6.0Under 6 14%2.56 - 8 34%2.759 - 11 31%6.012 - 14 14%15.0Over 14 6%
Number of Cards
4.51.83Over 50% P 47%1.83Under 50% P 53%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 22.5–25% · away 45–47.5% · 191 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 24% | 24% | 21% | -3.2 |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 29% | -0.6 |
| Away | 47% | 46% | 50% | +3.8 |
In those fixtures: 2.3 goals a game · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 38%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 44% | 43% | -1.2 |
Matteo Marcenaro
- Career
- 53 matches · 6 seasons
- Cards / match
- 5.3 (4.96 yellow · 0.28 red)
- Fouls / match
- 24.7 · 4.7 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.3
- Cards to home side
- 48%
Style in Serie A (5-year window · 49 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 5.0 | 4.49 | +0.72 | 76 |
| Fouls / match | 24.3 | 25.2 | -0.50 | |
| Fouls per card | 4.9 | 5.6 | -0.96 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.33 | 0.31 | +0.03 | 58 |
| Time added | 6.3 | 6.4 | -0.24 | 27 |
- First card
- 30' on average
- Card timing
- 17% in first 30' · 30% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 48% (league 46%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.17
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 4 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 30' | 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | 5 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 20' | 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | 6 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 9' | 7 |
| 2026-04-18 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 65' | 5 |
| 2026-04-04 · Lazio | 3 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 27' | 7 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 62' | 15 |
| 2026-02-09 | 6 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 5' | 5 |
| 2026-01-23 | 5 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 15' | 8 |
| 2026-01-10 | 4 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 22' | 8 |
| 2025-11-30 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 59' | 5 |