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Serie A · Matchweek 3

Momentum

RomaAtalanta
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
3

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Olimpico, Roma
Capacity
72,698
Surface
grass
Attendance
67,279

Teams

Coaches
Gian Gasperini · Maurizio Sarri
Position
3 · 6
Formation
3-4-1-2 · 4-3-3

Referee

Andrea Colombo

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
26.5° (feels 26.5°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
68%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Roma 4400 12111 12 WWWW
2 Inter 4400 1367 12 WWWW
3 Como 4310 945 10 DWWW
4 Lazio 4310 633 10 WWWD
5 Cagliari 4301 422 9 WLWW
6 AC Milan 4220 743 8 WWDD
7 Frosinone 4211 743 7 LWWD
8 Juventus 4211 642 7 WWDL
9 Sassuolo 4211 871 7 LWDW
10 Napoli 4202 651 6 WLLW
11 Atalanta 4202 550 6 WWLL
12 Lecce 4202 57-2 6 WLLW
13 Udinese 4112 810-2 4 DWLL
14 Torino 4103 47-3 3 LLWL
15 Fiorentina 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
16 Bologna 4013 25-3 1 LLDL
17 Parma 4013 26-4 1 LLDL
18 Monza 4013 611-5 1 LLDL
19 Genoa 4013 28-6 1 LLLD
20 Venezia 4004 411-7 0 LLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Roma

WWWWW 5W 0D 0L · 15 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 15 GA 2 · xG 12.58–3.21 · xPts 12.22

  • W A Lecce 4–0 xG 2.72–0.77 ITA SA
  • W H Fiorentina 4–0 xG 3.1–0.32 ITA SA
  • W A Hellas Verona 2–0 xG 2.78–0.44 ITA SA
  • W H Lazio 2–0 xG 1.57–0.6 ITA SA
  • W A Parma 3–2 xG 2.42–1.07 ITA SA

Atalanta

DDWWW 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 5 GA 2 · xG 4.82–5.54 · xPts 6.44

  • W H Bologna 1–0 xG 0.25–0.91 ITA SA
  • W A Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–0 xG 1.02–0.89 UEFA ECL
  • W H Sassuolo 2–1 xG 0.9–2.54 ITA SA
  • D H Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–0 xG 0.99–0.41 UEFA ECL
  • D A Fiorentina 1–1 xG 1.67–0.79 ITA SA

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 39 matches since 2006

Roma 159 draws15 Atalanta

Goals 57–61 · 3.03 per match · BTTS 74% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Roma 22 draws6 Atalanta

Goals 8–14 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Roma 11 draws3 Atalanta

Goals 4–7 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Roma 2–1 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Roma 1–1 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Atalanta 1–0 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Atalanta 2–1 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Roma 0–2 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Atalanta 2–1 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Roma 1–1 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Atalanta 3–1 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Roma 0–1 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 1–0 Atalanta neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricRoma all · 4Roma at home · 2Atalanta all · 4Atalanta away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Roma · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.66) · stands out: when level +0.82

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.665
Early press (0-15, level)+0.385
Late push (76+, level)+0.042

Game state

When ahead+0.365
When level+0.825
10 min after conceding-0.312
10 min after scoring+0.545

Situations

At home+1.332
Away+0.173
4+ days rest+0.665

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.912
As favourite+0.665

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.195
Conceded when ahead-0.195
Conceded late (76+)-0.563

Ahead vs level -0.46 · Behind vs level -0.11

Atalanta · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.46

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.066
Early press (0-15, level)-0.016
Late push (76+, level)-0.393
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.582

Game state

When ahead-0.174
When level-0.086
When behind+0.312
10 min after conceding-0.463
10 min after scoring+0.205

Situations

At home+0.024
Away-0.212
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.023
As favourite+0.025

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.466
Conceded when ahead+0.404
Conceded late (76+)+0.076

Congested vs rested -0.08 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level +0.39

Roma

Current: unbeaten 12 · wins 1 · scoring 22 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-13 75%3.03.330.02.630.62
3-4-1-21 25%3.02.01.03.310.88

Atalanta

Current: winless 2 · scoring 5 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-34 100%1.51.251.250.911.97

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: home +1.8 pts at 4.8d

1.69Home 57% ▲ +5.5 ptsopened 1.913.96Draw 24% ▼ -1.9 ptsopened 3.755.28Away 18% ▼ -3.6 ptsopened 4.52
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%60%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.69 ▲ +5.53.96 ▼ -1.95.28 ▼ -3.65m
bet3651.65 ▲ +5.43.8 ▼ -2.65.25 ▼ -2.85m
Betfair1.73 ▲ +4.93.8 · -0.75.0 ▼ -4.25m
BetVictor1.65 ▲ +7.84.0 ▼ -3.65.0 ▼ -4.25m
Coral1.67 ▲ +5.73.9 ▼ -1.94.8 ▼ -3.85m
Ladbrokes1.67 ▲ +5.73.9 ▼ -1.94.8 ▼ -3.85m
Unibet1.7 ▲ +4.53.5 · +0.35.0 ▼ -4.85m
WilliamHill1.65 ▲ +7.33.75 ▼ -2.74.8 ▼ -4.65m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.65Home 57% P 57%3.8Draw 25% P 24%5.25Away 18% P 18%

Double Chance

1.16Roma or Draw 40%1.22Roma or Atalanta 38%2.2Draw or Atalanta 21%

Draw No Bet

1.251 75%3.752 25%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55%2.05No 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 57%2.2Under 43% P 43%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.9Over 49% P 48%1.8Under 51% P 52%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 17.5–20% · 762 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home57%56%53%-2.8
Draw24%25%26%+1.0
Away18%19%21%+1.8

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.557%56%56%-0.2

Andrea Colombo

Career
72 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
5.17 (4.96 yellow · 0.17 red)
Fouls / match
24.9 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.21
Cards to home side
42%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 62 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.04.49+0.7276
Fouls / match25.225.2+0.05
Fouls per card5.15.6-0.71 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.160.31-1.315
Time added6.56.4+0.1749
First card
30' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.37

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-27 11 170 55'8
2026-08-13 20 231 26'5
2026-05-09 20 250 80'6
2026-04-12 20 340 36'6
2026-03-22 60 280 42'11
2026-03-08 · Roma 40 281 12'8
2026-02-28 70 220 45'7
2026-02-15 · Roma 20 281 26'6
2026-02-07 70 290 31'7
2026-01-29 30 300 35'9