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Serie A · Matchweek 3

Momentum

FiorentinaTorino
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
3

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze
Capacity
43,147
Surface
grass
Attendance
21,785

Teams

Coaches
Fabio Grosso · Ignazio Abate
Position
20 · 14
Formation
4-3-3 · 3-1-4-2

Referee

Davide Massa

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
33.6° (feels 35.8°)
Wind
5.0
Humidity
44%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Roma 4400 12111 12 WWWW
2 Inter 4400 1367 12 WWWW
3 Como 4310 945 10 DWWW
4 Lazio 4310 633 10 WWWD
5 Cagliari 4301 422 9 WLWW
6 AC Milan 4220 743 8 WWDD
7 Frosinone 4211 743 7 LWWD
8 Juventus 4211 642 7 WWDL
9 Sassuolo 5212 990 7 LWDWL
10 Napoli 4202 651 6 WLLW
11 Atalanta 4202 550 6 WWLL
12 Lecce 4202 57-2 6 WLLW
13 Udinese 4112 810-2 4 DWLL
14 Monza 5113 812-4 4 LLDLW
15 Torino 4103 47-3 3 LLWL
16 Fiorentina 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
17 Bologna 4013 25-3 1 LLDL
18 Parma 4013 26-4 1 LLDL
19 Genoa 4013 28-6 1 LLLD
20 Venezia 4004 411-7 0 LLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Fiorentina

DWDLL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 3 GA 8 · xG 4.81–9.12 · xPts 4.7

  • L H Frosinone 0–3 xG 1.99–1.47 ITA SA
  • L A Roma 0–4 xG 0.32–3.1 ITA SA
  • D H Atalanta 1–1 xG 0.79–1.67 ITA SA
  • W A Juventus 2–0 xG 0.65–2.15 ITA SA
  • D H Genoa 0–0 xG 1.06–0.73 ITA SA

Torino

WLDLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 9 · xG 6.37–9.14 · xPts 5.25

  • L A Sassuolo 1–2 xG 1.21–1.8 ITA SA
  • L H AC Milan 1–2 xG 1.06–2.24 ITA SA
  • D H Juventus 2–2 xG 1.01–2.3 ITA SA
  • L A Cagliari 1–2 xG 1.11–1.28 ITA SA
  • W H Sassuolo 2–1 xG 1.98–1.51 ITA SA

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 35 matches since 2006

Fiorentina 1514 draws6 Torino

Goals 51–37 · 2.51 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 46%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Fiorentina 25 draws3 Torino

Goals 7–11 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Fiorentina 13 draws1 Torino

Goals 5–5 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Fiorentina 1–2 Torino ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Fiorentina 2–2 Torino ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Torino 0–0 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Fiorentina 1–1 Torino ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Torino 0–1 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Torino 0–0 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Fiorentina 1–0 Torino ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Torino 1–1 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Fiorentina 0–1 Torino ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Torino 4–0 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricFiorentina all · 4Fiorentina at home · 2Torino all · 4Torino away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Fiorentina · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: 10 min after conceding +0.33

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.174
Early press (0-15, level)+0.094

Game state

When ahead+0.082
When level+0.224
When behind+0.194
10 min after conceding+0.334
10 min after scoring+0.492

Situations

At home+0.192
Away+0.152
4+ days rest+0.174

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.422
As favourite+0.192

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.202
Conceded late (76+)+0.192

Ahead vs level -0.14 · Behind vs level -0.03

Torino · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.68

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.024
Early press (0-15, level)-0.184
Late push (76+, level)+0.302
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.093

Game state

When level+0.044
When behind-0.154
10 min after conceding-0.384
10 min after scoring+0.683

Situations

At home-0.192
Away+0.142
4+ days rest-0.024

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.192
v mid-tier opponents+0.142
As underdog-0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.364
Conceded late (76+)+0.244

Ahead vs level +0.29 · Behind vs level -0.19

Fiorentina

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-32 50%0.00.52.51.71.15
4-3-2-11 25%0.00.04.00.323.1
4-2-3-11 25%3.04.02.02.990.64

Torino

Current: winless 1 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
5-3-22 50%0.00.52.01.01.94
3-4-2-11 25%0.01.02.01.062.24
3-1-4-21 25%3.02.01.00.841.41

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home -1.2 pts at 23.0h

1.97Home 49% ▼ -1.2 ptsopened 1.913.46Draw 28% ▼ -1.7 ptsopened 3.244.31Away 23% ▲ +3.0 ptsopened 4.93
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.97 ▼ -1.23.46 ▼ -1.74.31 ▲ +3.010m
bet3652.1 ▼ -5.03.2 ▲ +1.53.7 ▲ +3.510m
Betfair1.95 · -0.13.3 · +0.74.33 · -0.710m
BetVictor1.95 ▼ -2.13.5 · -0.53.8 ▲ +2.610m
Coral2.0 ▼ -2.73.4 ▼ -1.13.7 ▲ +3.810m
Ladbrokes2.0 ▼ -2.33.4 ▼ -1.33.7 ▲ +3.610m
Unibet1.9 · +0.13.25 · -0.14.2 · -0.110m
WilliamHill1.95 ▼ -1.43.4 ▼ -1.53.7 ▲ +2.810m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.1Home 45% P 49%3.2Draw 30% P 28%3.7Away 26% P 23%

Double Chance

1.2Fiorentina or Draw 39%1.33Fiorentina or Torino 35%1.83Draw or Torino 26%

Draw No Bet

1.361 69%3.02 31%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 53%2.0No 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 49%1.8Under 53% P 51%

Total Corners

6.0Under 6 15%2.66 - 8 33%2.759 - 11 32%6.012 - 14 15%15.0Over 14 6%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 48%1.83Under 50% P 52%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 809 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home49%49%47%-1.9
Draw28%28%29%+1.6
Away23%24%24%+0.2

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 48%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.549%49%50%+1.3

Davide Massa

Career
316 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match
4.86 (4.64 yellow · 0.13 red)
Fouls / match
25.0 · 4.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 79 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.24.48+1.0188
Fouls / match26.825.1+1.12
Fouls per card5.25.6-0.61 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.31-0.9712
Time added6.46.4-0.0442
First card
32' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-19 30 180 76'4
2026-08-11 31 220 10'5
2026-05-17 · Fiorentina 41 270 22'10
2026-05-07 41 260 6'7
2026-04-25 70 340 12'6
2026-04-16 70 281 35'12
2026-04-12 100 291 24'6
2026-04-06 50 181 15'6
2026-03-19 20 170 25'6
2026-03-15 51 341 48'7