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Serie A · Matchweek 3

Momentum

CagliariLecce
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
3

Venue

Stadium
Sardegna Arena, Cagliari
Capacity
16,416
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Fabio Pisacane · Eusebio Di Francesco
Position
12 · 14
Formation
4-3-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Juan Luca Sacchi

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
27.8° (feels 31.4°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
78%

Where to watch · 176

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Roma 4400 12111 12 WWWW
2 Inter 4400 1367 12 WWWW
3 Como 4310 945 10 DWWW
4 Lazio 4310 633 10 WWWD
5 Cagliari 4301 422 9 WLWW
6 AC Milan 4220 743 8 WWDD
7 Frosinone 4211 743 7 LWWD
8 Juventus 4211 642 7 WWDL
9 Sassuolo 5212 990 7 LWDWL
10 Napoli 4202 651 6 WLLW
11 Atalanta 4202 550 6 WWLL
12 Lecce 4202 57-2 6 WLLW
13 Udinese 4112 810-2 4 DWLL
14 Monza 5113 812-4 4 LLDLW
15 Torino 4103 47-3 3 LLWL
16 Fiorentina 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
17 Bologna 4013 25-3 1 LLDL
18 Parma 4013 26-4 1 LLDL
19 Genoa 4013 28-6 1 LLLD
20 Venezia 4004 411-7 0 LLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Cagliari

WWWL 3W 0D 1L · 9 pts (2.25 ppg) · GF 5 GA 3 · xG 5.62–7.34 · xPts 5.09

  • L H Inter 0–1 xG 0.57–3.59 ITA SA
  • W A Parma 1–0 xG 1.24–0.88 ITA SA
  • W A AC Milan 2–1 xG 2.53–1.77 ITA SA
  • W H Torino 2–1 xG 1.28–1.11 ITA SA

Lecce

WWWL 3W 0D 1L · 9 pts (2.25 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 4.91–7.81 · xPts 3.99

  • L H Roma 0–4 xG 0.77–2.72 ITA SA
  • W A Venezia 2–0 xG 1.9–2.21 ITA SA
  • W H Genoa 1–0 xG 1.36–0.89 ITA SA
  • W A Sassuolo 3–2 xG 0.88–1.99 ITA SA

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 17 matches since 2005

Cagliari 66 draws5 Lecce

Goals 22–21 · 2.53 per match · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 41%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Cagliari 34 draws3 Lecce

Goals 12–11 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Cagliari 30 draws2 Lecce

Goals 7–5 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Cagliari 1–0 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Cagliari 0–2 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Lecce 1–2 Cagliari ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Cagliari 4–1 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Lecce 1–0 Cagliari ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Cagliari 1–1 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Lecce 1–1 Cagliari ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Cagliari 0–0 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Lecce 2–2 Cagliari ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Cagliari 1–2 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricCagliari all · 4Cagliari at home · 2Lecce all · 4Lecce away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Cagliari · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.61

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.024
Early press (0-15, level)-0.334

Game state

When ahead+0.263
When level-0.024
10 min after conceding-0.552
10 min after scoring+0.613

Situations

At home-0.012
Away-0.032
4+ days rest-0.024

Opposition

As underdog-0.452

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.304
Conceded when ahead-0.083
Conceded late (76+)+0.064

Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.47

Lecce · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.31) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.43

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.314
Early press (0-15, level)-0.434

Game state

When ahead-0.342
When level-0.294
When behind-0.272
10 min after conceding-0.233
10 min after scoring-0.202

Situations

At home-0.372
Away-0.272
4+ days rest-0.314

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents-0.382
As underdog-0.233

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.804
Conceded when ahead+0.912
Conceded late (76+)+0.563

Ahead vs level -0.05 · Behind vs level +0.02

Cagliari

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-12 50%1.50.50.50.92.23
4-4-1-11 25%3.02.01.01.121.58
4-3-2-11 25%3.01.00.01.140.76

Lecce

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-32 50%3.02.51.01.552.62
3-5-21 25%0.00.04.00.772.72
4-2-3-11 25%0.00.01.00.761.14

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home -1.3 pts at 11.5h

2.13Home 46% ▼ -2.5 ptsopened 2.013.14Draw 31% ▲ +1.7 ptsopened 3.34.15Away 23% · +0.8 ptsopened 4.27
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.13 ▼ -2.53.14 ▲ +1.74.15 · +0.810m
bet3652.2 ▼ -3.73.1 ▲ +1.33.6 ▲ +2.310m
Betfair2.05 ▼ -2.43.1 · -0.03.9 ▲ +2.410m
BetVictor2.05 ▼ -2.13.2 · +0.53.9 ▲ +1.610m
Coral2.2 ▼ -3.53.0 ▲ +1.73.6 ▲ +1.810m
Ladbrokes2.2 ▼ -4.13.0 ▲ +2.03.6 ▲ +2.110m
Unibet2.07 ▼ -4.03.0 ▲ +1.53.9 ▲ +2.510m
WilliamHill2.05 ▼ -1.53.1 · -0.33.6 ▲ +1.810m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.2Home 43% P 46%3.1Draw 31% P 31%3.6Away 26% P 23%

Double Chance

1.22Cagliari or Draw 38%1.33Cagliari or Lecce 35%1.72Draw or Lecce 27%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.95Yes 48%1.8No 52%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 42%1.66Under 57% P 58%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 49%1.83Under 50% P 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 22.5–25% · 565 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home46%46%48%+1.4
Draw31%30%28%-1.5
Away23%24%24%+0.2

In those fixtures: 2.3 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 41%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 40–42.5% · 2,093 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.542%41%41%-0.4

Juan Luca Sacchi

Career
80 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.0 (3.86 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
26.1 · 6.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.24
Cards to home side
42%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 57 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.984.48-0.7227
Fouls / match25.625.1+0.30
Fouls per card6.55.6+0.70 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.230.31-0.7724
Time added6.66.4+0.3758
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 29% in last 15'
Cards to home side
40% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-27 · Cagliari 19 11
2026-03-22 · Lecce 40 310 77'5
2026-03-07 40 140 39'9
2026-02-14 50 261 10'8
2026-02-02 90 350 7'7
2026-01-25 10 221 53'5
2026-01-06 · Lecce 40 300 5'5
2025-12-28 50 370 21'7
2025-12-12 · Lecce 30 230 33'8
2025-11-22 10 351 45'11