KickoffDNA
0 live
Sign in
Eredivisie · Matchweek 7
AjaxAjax
–
ExcelsiorExcelsior

Momentum

– AjaxExcelsior –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
7

Venue

Stadium
Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Capacity
55,885
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Míchel · Ruben den Uil
Position
4 · 7
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-1-4-1

Referee

Jannick van der Laan

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
19.8° (feels 19.8°)
Wind
7.3
Humidity
73%

Where to watch · 89

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 PSV 6510 22715 16 WWWWW
2 AZ Alkmaar 6510 17611 16 WWWWD
3 Feyenoord 6420 20713 14 DWDWW
4 Ajax 6411 19712 13 DWLWW
5 FC Twente 6411 1257 13 WWDWW
6 FC Groningen 7322 15132 11 LLDDW
7 Excelsior 6312 1376 10 LWWDL
8 Fortuna Sittard 6312 1214-2 10 WLWWL
9 Go Ahead Eagles 6231 15132 9 DWLDD
10 NEC Nijmegen 6213 1112-1 7 WWLDL
11 SC Heerenveen 6132 79-2 6 DLDLD
12 Sparta Rotterdam 6123 1013-3 5 WDLDL
13 Telstar 6123 511-6 5 LLDLD
14 FC Utrecht 6123 1119-8 5 LDLDW
15 SC Cambuur 6114 918-9 4 LLLDW
16 PEC Zwolle 7115 620-14 4 WLDLL
17 Willem II 6024 619-13 2 LDLDL
18 ADO Den Haag 6015 616-10 1 LLDLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Ajax

WWLWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 20 GA 8 · xG 15.08–6.83 · xPts 11.01

  • W H Willem II 5–1 xG 3.29–1.23 NLD E
  • W A Fortuna Sittard 5–1 xG 3.59–0.65 NLD E
  • L H PSV 1–3 xG 1.97–2.41 NLD E
  • W A Telstar 4–0 xG 2.14–0.88 NLD E
  • W H Sion 5–3 xG 4.1–1.66 UEFA ECL

Excelsior

LWWDL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 7 · xG 6.81–6.5 · xPts 7.11

  • L H FC Utrecht 1–2 xG 0.89–1.46 NLD E
  • D A NEC Nijmegen 2–2 xG 1.84–1.21 NLD E
  • W A Willem II 3–0 xG 1.69–1.06 NLD E
  • W H Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 xG 1.71–0.8 NLD E
  • L H PSV 1–2 xG 0.68–1.96 NLD E

full sample 6 meetings 2022–2026

Recurring referee: Marc Nagtegaal · 2 of these meetings

Last 6

Ajax 23 draws1 Excelsior

Goals 18–10 · Ajax hosting: 1W 1D 1L · Excelsior hosting: 0W 2D 1L

At Johan Cruijff Arena: 3 meetings · Ajax 1 · draws 1 · Excelsior 1 · 5.0 goals per match · last away win Nov 2025

All-time since 2006: 24 meetings · Ajax 16 · draws 6 · Excelsior 2

  • Ajax haven't beaten Excelsior since Jan 2023
  • Excelsior unbeaten in the last 4 meetings
  • Both teams have scored in the last 11 meetings
  • Over 2.5 goals in the last 10 meetings

This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days

MetricFixtureLeagueΔn
Goals per match4.673.29+1.386
Both teams score100%66%+34%6
Over 2.5 goals100%64%+36%6
Corners10.810.5+0.36
Cards1.83.6-1.86

5 with 4+ goals · 2.17 first-half goals per match · red card in 1

How these games go · 6 with event data

AjaxExcelsior
Scored first5 of 61 of 6
Scored first and won21
Won from behind00

first goal on average in minute 23 · a side came back in 3 · goal after the 75th minute in 4 · penalty scored in 2

When the goals come · all goals, 6 meetings

0-15'2
16-30'4
31-45'7
46-60'5
61-75'5
76-90'5

6 equalisers · 2 penalties · 1 header

Expected goals · last 3 with xG

Ajax 1.42 xGper match0.77 xG Excelsior

Deserved on xG: Ajax 1 · level 2 · Excelsior 0 — actual wins in those games 0 / 1

Against the market · 6 with closing odds

Favourite won 2 (33%), drew 3, upset 1 · market favoured Ajax 6×, Excelsior 0× · avg favourite 73%, avg price of the actual result 40%

Fixture specialists

  • 2 Mika Godts Ajax · last Feb 2026
  • 2 Noah Naujoks Excelsior · last Nov 2025
  • 2 Davy Klaassen Ajax · in 2 games · last Aug 2023
  • 2 Nikolas Agrafiotis Excelsior · in 2 games · last Aug 2023
  • 2 Mohammed Kudus  Ajax · in 2 games · last Jan 2023

Last meeting · 2026-02-01 · NLD E

Excelsior 2-2 Ajax · ref Marc Nagtegaal

  • 21' Mika Godts assist Rayane Bounida 0–1
  • 40' Mika Godts assist Kasper Dolberg 0–2
  • 74' Miliano Jonathans assist Gyan de Regt 1–2
  • 79' Arthur Zagré assist Gyan de Regt 2–2

xG 0.55 – 0.80 · corners 5 · cards 1

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·

Match result

68.6%Ajax P 78%17.0%Draw P 13%14.3%Excelsior P 9%

Over / under 2.5

71.8%Over 2.5 P 76%28.2%Under 2.5 P 24%

Both teams to score

62.8%Yes37.2%No

Expected

Ajax goals
2.59 (1–5)
Excelsior goals
1.13 (0–3)
Corners
10.3 (6–15)
Cards
3.42 (1–6)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

60.2%Ajax20.9%Draw18.9%Excelsior

Over / under 2.5

64.0%Over 2.536.0%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

61.0%Yes39.0%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 24 matches since 2006

Ajax 166 draws2 Excelsior

Goals 70–26 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 75% · over 2.5 79%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Ajax 63 draws1 Excelsior

Goals 36–15 · 5.1 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Ajax 13 draws1 Excelsior

Goals 11–9 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • D Excelsior 2–2 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
  • L Ajax 1–2 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
  • D Ajax 2–2 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
  • D Excelsior 2–2 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Excelsior 1–4 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Ajax 7–1 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Ajax 6–2 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Excelsior 1–7 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Excelsior 1–2 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Ajax 3–1 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
MetricAjax all · 6Ajax at home · 3Excelsior all · 6Excelsior away · 3
Results
Matches6–6–
Points per game2.17–1.67–
W / D / L4 / 1 / 1–3 / 1 / 2–
Goals for / match3.17–2.17–
Goals against / match1.17–1.17–
Clean sheets33%–33%–
Failed to score0%–0%–
Both teams scored67%–67%–
Over 2.583%–100%–
Expected goals
xG for / match2.51–1.56–
xG against / match1.18–1.22–
xG difference1.33–0.34–
Finishing vs xG0.66–0.61–
xPts / match2.12–1.58–
Points vs xPts0.05–0.09–
Game state
Scored first83%–50%–
PPG when scoring first2.60–3.00–
PPG when conceding first0.00–0.33–
Came back from behind0%–33%–
Leads held80%–75%–
Minutes leading44%–36%–
Minutes level45%–35%–
Minutes trailing12%–29%–
First goal (min)36–37–
First goal conceded (min)44–25–
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half63%–46%–
Goals conceded in 2nd half57%–57%–
Late goals for (76'+)1.00–0.50–
Late goals against0.50–0.33–
Style
Possession62%–44%–
Shots23.3–12.5–
On target8.0–5.2–
Shot conversion14%–17%–
Shots inside box69%–72%–
Big chances created3.7–2.8–
Corners7.8–5.0–
xG from set plays18%–21%–
Goals from headers22%–38%–
Pressure index23.0–10.8–
Dominant minutes66.2–48.7–
Pass accuracy89%–78%–
Fouls9.2–11.7–
Cards2.17–1.50–

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Ajax

0–15'11
16–30'10
31–45'52
46–60'21
61–75'40
76–90'63

Excelsior

0–15'12
16–30'20
31–45'41
46–60'12
61–75'20
76–90'32

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Ajax · 12 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.65) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) +0.90

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.6512
Early press (0-15, level)+0.9012
Late push (76+, level)+0.053

Game state

When ahead+0.6811
When level+0.8012
When behind-0.184
10 min after conceding-0.219
10 min after scoring+0.8112

Situations

At home+0.686
Away+0.626
3 days rest or fewer+0.544
4+ days rest+0.708

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.735
As favourite+0.7311

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.1912
Conceded when ahead-0.2911
Conceded late (76+)-0.399

Congested vs rested -0.17 · Ahead vs level -0.12 · Behind vs level -0.98

Excelsior · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.046
Early press (0-15, level)+0.056
Late push (76+, level)+0.203
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.692

Game state

When ahead+0.114
When level+0.026
When behind-0.243
10 min after conceding-0.134
10 min after scoring+0.366

Situations

At home-0.153
Away+0.103
4+ days rest-0.025

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.072
v bottom-tier opponents+0.143
Evenly matched+0.094
As underdog-0.262

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.066
Conceded when ahead+0.194
Conceded late (76+)+0.285

Congested vs rested -0.11 · Ahead vs level +0.09 · Behind vs level -0.26

Ajax

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 14 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-33 50%2.03.671.672.951.43
4-2-3-12 33%2.02.01.02.040.97
4-4-1-11 17%3.04.00.02.140.88

Excelsior

Current: winless 2 · scoring 11 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-32 33%1.51.51.51.21.38
5-4-11 17%3.03.00.01.691.06
4-1-4-11 17%0.01.02.00.891.46
3-4-31 17%1.02.02.01.841.21
4-2-3-11 17%3.04.00.02.560.84

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 4.0d before kick-off · 85 snapshots · last 11.0h before kick-off · biggest step: home +1.4 pts at 34.0h

1.22Home 78% ▲ +3.6 ptsopened 1.257.34Draw 13% ▼ -1.7 ptsopened 6.3510.75Away 9% ▼ -1.9 ptsopened 8.67
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.22 ▲ +3.67.34 ▼ -1.710.75 ▼ -1.911.0h
bet3651.22 ▲ +3.17.0 ▼ -1.411.0 ▼ -1.711.0h
Betfair1.22 ▲ +5.06.5 ▼ -2.59.5 ▼ -2.511.0h
BetVictor1.2 ▲ +3.07.0 ▼ -1.111.0 ▼ -1.911.0h
Coral1.25 ▲ +4.77.0 ▼ -3.010.0 ▼ -1.711.0h
Ladbrokes1.22 ▲ +5.27.0 ▼ -3.610.0 ▼ -1.611.0h
Unibet1.21 · -0.86.75 · +0.510.5 · +0.411.0h
WilliamHill1.2 ▲ +5.76.5 ▼ -2.610.0 ▼ -3.111.0h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 11.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.22Home 78% P 78%7.0Draw 14% P 13%11.0Away 9% P 9%

Double Chance

1.05Ajax or Draw 45%1.1Ajax or Excelsior 43%4.0Draw or Excelsior 12%

Draw No Bet

1.061 90%10.02 10%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.28Over 74% P 76%3.6Under 26% P 24%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 24%2.629 - 11 33%3.7512 - 14 23%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

2.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%
3.52.25Over 41%1.57Under 59%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 77.5–80% · away 7.5–10% · 182 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home78%78%79%+0.7
Draw13%13%14%+0.2
Away9%8%7%-0.9

In those fixtures: 3.6 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 73%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 75–80% · 137 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.576%77%79%+1.8

Jannick van der Laan

Career
63 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
3.22 (3.08 yellow · 0.14 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 6.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.24
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 56 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.113.32-0.5124
Fouls / match21.720.3+0.57
Fouls per card7.26.2+1.22 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.180.24-0.7914
Time added7.06.4+1.3690
First card
41' on average
Card timing
12% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 44%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-12 40 211 33'5
2026-08-30 –– 14– –5
2026-08-09 · Ajax 41 220 33'12
2026-05-21 10 170 49'6
2026-05-10 20 150 17'4
2026-04-26 10 280 87'16
2026-04-04 30 220 12'10
2026-03-06 20 300 61'7
2026-03-01 · Excelsior 20 170 28'7
2026-02-17 70 300 28'–