KickoffDNA
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Eredivisie · Matchweek 7

Momentum

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Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
7

Venue

Stadium
Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
Capacity
11,026
Surface
artificial turf

Teams

Coaches
Rogier Meijer · Robin Veldman
Position
12 · 11
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Robin Hensgens

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
19.7° (feels 19.7°)
Wind
7.7
Humidity
74%

Where to watch · 4

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 PSV 6510 22715 16 WWWWW
2 AZ Alkmaar 6510 17611 16 WWWWD
3 Feyenoord 6420 20713 14 DWDWW
4 Ajax 6411 19712 13 DWLWW
5 FC Twente 6411 1257 13 WWDWW
6 Excelsior 6312 1376 10 LWWDL
7 Fortuna Sittard 6312 1214-2 10 WLWWL
8 Go Ahead Eagles 6231 15132 9 DWLDD
9 FC Groningen 6222 1213-1 8 WLLDD
10 NEC Nijmegen 6213 1112-1 7 WWLDL
11 SC Heerenveen 6132 79-2 6 DLDLD
12 Sparta Rotterdam 6123 1013-3 5 WDLDL
13 Telstar 6123 511-6 5 LLDLD
14 FC Utrecht 6123 1119-8 5 LDLDW
15 SC Cambuur 6114 918-9 4 LLLDW
16 PEC Zwolle 6114 617-11 4 LWLDL
17 Willem II 6024 619-13 2 LDLDL
18 ADO Den Haag 6015 616-10 1 LLDLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Sparta Rotterdam

WDLDL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 12 · xG 9.37–10.39 · xPts 6.46

  • L A PSV 1–4 xG 1.91–3.8 NLD E
  • D H PEC Zwolle 2–2 xG 3.12–1.33 NLD E
  • L A Excelsior 1–2 xG 0.8–1.71 NLD E
  • D H FC Utrecht 3–3 xG 1.41–2.13 NLD E
  • W A Telstar 3–1 xG 2.13–1.43 NLD E

SC Heerenveen

DLDLD 0W 3D 2L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 6 GA 9 · xG 7.34–7.95 · xPts 6.56

  • D H Telstar 0–0 xG 1.63–1.03 NLD E
  • L H AZ Alkmaar 2–3 xG 1.38–1.49 NLD E
  • D A Willem II 2–2 xG 1.83–1.69 NLD E
  • L H PEC Zwolle 0–2 xG 1.06–1.62 NLD E
  • D A Ajax 2–2 xG 1.45–2.11 NLD E

full sample 10 meetings 2021–2026

Recurring referee: Sander van der Eijk · 2 of these meetings

Last 10

Sparta Rotterdam 43 draws3 SC Heerenveen

Goals 14–11 · Sparta Rotterdam hosting: 3W 1D 1L · SC Heerenveen hosting: 2W 2D 1L

At Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel: 5 meetings · Sparta Rotterdam 3 · draws 1 · SC Heerenveen 1 · 3.2 goals per match · last away win Dec 2025

All-time since 2005: 27 meetings · Sparta Rotterdam 8 · draws 7 · SC Heerenveen 12

  • Over 2.5 goals in the last 3 meetings

This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days

MetricFixtureLeagueΔn
Goals per match2.503.29-0.7910
Both teams score50%66%-16%10
Over 2.5 goals60%64%-4%10
Corners10.010.5-0.510
Cards2.63.6-1.010

2 goalless · 3 with 4+ goals · 0.60 first-half goals per match · red card in 1

How these games go · 10 with event data

Sparta RotterdamSC Heerenveen
Scored first5 of 103 of 10
Scored first and won43
Won from behind00

first goal on average in minute 35 · a side came back in 1 · goal after the 75th minute in 4 · penalty scored in 2

When the goals come · all goals, 8 meetings

0-15'1
16-30'2
31-45'3
46-60'6
61-75'7
76-90'6

1 equaliser · 3 penalties · 1 own goal · 1 header

Expected goals · last 5 with xG

Sparta Rotterdam 1.15 xGper match1.49 xG SC Heerenveen

Deserved on xG: Sparta Rotterdam 1 · level 1 · SC Heerenveen 3 — actual wins in those games 2 / 3

Against the market · 10 with closing odds

Favourite won 6 (60%), drew 3, upset 1 · market favoured Sparta Rotterdam 4×, SC Heerenveen 6× · avg favourite 46%, avg price of the actual result 40%

Fixture specialists

  • 3 Jacob Trenskow SC Heerenveen · in 3 games · last Feb 2026
  • 3 Tobias Lauritsen Sparta Rotterdam · in 3 games · last Apr 2025
  • 2 Mitchell van Bergen Sparta Rotterdam · in 2 games · last Feb 2026
  • 2 Koki Saito Sparta Rotterdam · last Aug 2023
  • 2 Vito van Crooij Sparta Rotterdam · in 2 games · last Apr 2023

Last meeting · 2026-02-28 · NLD E

SC Heerenveen 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam · ref Martijn Vos

  • 40' Jacob Trenskow 1–0
  • 82' Luuk Brouwers 2–0
  • 86' Mitchell van Bergen assist Pelle Clement 2–1

xG 2.19 – 0.78 · corners 11 · cards 5

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·

Match result

40.4%Sparta Rotterdam P 38%24.0%Draw P 26%35.6%SC Heerenveen P 36%

Over / under 2.5

61.0%Over 2.5 P 63%39.0%Under 2.5 P 37%

Both teams to score

63.1%Yes36.9%No

Expected

Sparta Rotterdam goals
1.63 (0–3)
SC Heerenveen goals
1.52 (0–3)
Corners
12.5 (8–17)
Cards
3.45 (1–6)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

42.0%Sparta Rotterdam24.9%Draw33.1%SC Heerenveen

Over / under 2.5

57.8%Over 2.542.2%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

59.5%Yes40.5%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 27 matches since 2005

Sparta Rotterdam 87 draws12 SC Heerenveen

Goals 38–47 · 3.15 per match · BTTS 63% · over 2.5 70%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Sparta Rotterdam 43 draws3 SC Heerenveen

Goals 14–11 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Sparta Rotterdam 20 draws3 SC Heerenveen

Goals 6–9 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L SC Heerenveen 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam NLD E · Regular Season
  • L Sparta Rotterdam 0–3 SC Heerenveen NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Sparta Rotterdam 3–1 SC Heerenveen NLD E · Regular Season
  • L SC Heerenveen 2–0 Sparta Rotterdam NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 SC Heerenveen NLD E · Regular Season
  • W SC Heerenveen 1–3 Sparta Rotterdam NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Sparta Rotterdam 4–0 SC Heerenveen NLD E · Regular Season
  • D SC Heerenveen 0–0 Sparta Rotterdam NLD E · Regular Season
  • D Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 SC Heerenveen NLD E · Regular Season
  • D SC Heerenveen 0–0 Sparta Rotterdam NLD E · Regular Season
MetricSparta Rotterdam all · 6Sparta Rotterdam at home · 3SC Heerenveen all · 6SC Heerenveen away · 2
Results
Matches66
Points per game0.831.00
W / D / L1 / 2 / 31 / 3 / 2
Goals for / match1.671.17
Goals against / match2.171.50
Clean sheets0%33%
Failed to score17%33%
Both teams scored83%50%
Over 2.583%50%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.741.32
xG against / match2.361.66
xG difference-0.61-0.34
Finishing vs xG-0.08-0.15
xPts / match1.131.17
Points vs xPts-0.29-0.17
Game state
Scored first33%17%
PPG when scoring first1.503.00
PPG when conceding first0.500.50
Came back from behind40%50%
Leads held33%33%
Minutes leading19%15%
Minutes level44%59%
Minutes trailing36%26%
First goal (min)2846
First goal conceded (min)3531
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half60%57%
Goals conceded in 2nd half54%67%
Late goals for (76'+)0.330.33
Late goals against0.830.33
Style
Possession48%54%
Shots13.514.8
On target5.05.5
Shot conversion12%8%
Shots inside box80%58%
Big chances created3.31.8
Corners6.55.0
xG from set plays26%17%
Goals from headers30%0%
Pressure index9.012.0
Dominant minutes31.845.8
Pass accuracy82%85%
Fouls9.58.2
Cards1.001.17

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Sparta Rotterdam

0–15'20
16–30'14
31–45'12
46–60'21
61–75'21
76–90'25

SC Heerenveen

0–15'02
16–30'20
31–45'11
46–60'11
61–75'13
76–90'22

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Sparta Rotterdam · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.14) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.146
Early press (0-15, level)-0.496
Late push (76+, level)-0.483
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.314

Game state

When ahead-0.043
When level-0.086
When behind-0.245
10 min after conceding-0.315
10 min after scoring+0.485

Situations

At home-0.063
Away-0.253
4+ days rest-0.146

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.292
v mid-tier opponents-0.202
v bottom-tier opponents+0.152
Evenly matched-0.243
As underdog-0.292

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.336
Conceded when ahead-0.293
Conceded late (76+)+0.285

Ahead vs level +0.04 · Behind vs level -0.16

SC Heerenveen · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.046
Early press (0-15, level)+0.106
Late push (76+, level)+0.054
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.363

Game state

When ahead-0.303
When level+0.206
When behind-0.124
10 min after conceding+0.124
10 min after scoring+0.274

Situations

At home-0.064
Away+0.252
4+ days rest+0.046

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.243
v bottom-tier opponents+0.323
As favourite+0.323
As underdog-0.243

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.186
Conceded when ahead+0.933
Conceded late (76+)+0.256

Ahead vs level -0.51 · Behind vs level -0.32

Sparta Rotterdam

Current: winless 4 · scoring 5 · conceding 11

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 67%1.01.51.51.792.05
3-4-2-11 17%0.01.04.01.913.8
3-4-31 17%1.03.03.01.412.13

SC Heerenveen

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 5 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 67%0.51.01.751.381.56
4-4-21 17%1.02.02.01.831.69
4-1-4-11 17%3.01.00.00.582.01

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 96 snapshots · last 24.8h before kick-off

2.49Home 38% · +0.7 ptsopened 2.543.71Draw 26% · -0.2 ptsopened 3.692.64Away 36% · -0.6 ptsopened 2.6
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%

Home Draw Away consensus of 7 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.49 · +0.73.71 · -0.22.64 · -0.624.8h
bet3652.5 · -0.63.75 · -0.92.6 ▲ +1.524.8h
Betfair2.55 · +0.33.5 · +0.92.6 ▼ -1.224.8h
BetVictor2.4 · +0.73.8 · -0.72.55 · -0.024.8h
Coral2.5 · +0.03.7 · +0.02.6 · +0.024.8h
Ladbrokes2.5 · -0.33.6 · +0.52.6 · -0.324.8h
WilliamHill2.45 · +0.03.4 · +0.02.5 · +0.024.8h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 24.8h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.5Home 38% P 38%3.75Draw 25% P 26%2.6Away 37% P 36%

Double Chance

1.5Sparta Rotterdam or Draw 31%1.25Sparta Rotterdam or Heerenveen 38%1.5Draw or Heerenveen 31%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.44Yes 65%2.62No 35%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.47Over 64% P 63%2.6Under 36% P 37%

Total Corners

17.0Under 6 5%4.756 - 8 18%2.759 - 11 32%3.2512 - 14 27%5.0Over 14 18%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 35–37.5% · 153 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home38%38%42%+3.4
Draw26%26%20%-5.4
Away36%36%38%+2.0

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 68% · over 2.5 65%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.563%64%63%-0.4

Robin Hensgens

Career
40 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
3.6 (3.4 yellow · 0.13 red)
Fouls / match
22.4 · 6.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.1
Cards to home side
40%

Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 39 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.623.32+0.5486
Fouls / match22.420.3+0.94
Fouls per card6.26.2-0.32 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.10.24-1.649
Time added6.56.4+0.0859
First card
39' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
40% (league 44%)
VAR events / match
1.22

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-05 30 230 51'4
2026-08-30 30 140 57'6
2026-08-08 30 200 19'5
2026-07-23 30 220 36'6
2026-04-10 20 140 23'4
2026-04-05 · Sparta Rotterdam 40 310 11'5
2026-03-15 40 290 43'8
2026-02-22 11 280 65'7
2026-02-11 · SC Heerenveen 10 220 42'8
2026-01-25 30 290 26'5