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Eredivisie · Matchweek 3
AjaxAjax
5–1
FT
Willem IIWillem II

Momentum

– AjaxWillem II –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
3

Venue

Stadium
Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Capacity
55,885
Surface
grass
Attendance
54,018

Teams

Coaches
Míchel · John Stegeman
Position
5 · 17
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Allard Lindhout

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
18.8° (feels 18.8°)
Wind
4.6
Humidity
79%

Where to watch · 146

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 PSV 6510 22715 16 WWWWW
2 AZ Alkmaar 6510 17611 16 WWWWD
3 Feyenoord 6420 20713 14 DWDWW
4 Ajax 6411 19712 13 DWLWW
5 FC Twente 6411 1257 13 WWDWW
6 Excelsior 6312 1376 10 LWWDL
7 Fortuna Sittard 6312 1214-2 10 WLWWL
8 Go Ahead Eagles 6231 15132 9 DWLDD
9 FC Groningen 6222 1213-1 8 WLLDD
10 NEC Nijmegen 6213 1112-1 7 WWLDL
11 SC Heerenveen 6132 79-2 6 DLDLD
12 Sparta Rotterdam 6123 1013-3 5 WDLDL
13 Telstar 6123 511-6 5 LLDLD
14 FC Utrecht 6123 1119-8 5 LDLDW
15 SC Cambuur 6114 918-9 4 LLLDW
16 PEC Zwolle 6114 617-11 4 LWLDL
17 Willem II 6024 619-13 2 LDLDL
18 ADO Den Haag 6015 616-10 1 LLDLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Ajax

WWWLW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 19 GA 9 · xG 14.61–7.62 · xPts 10.41

  • W A Fortuna Sittard 5–1 xG 3.59–0.65 NLD E
  • L H PSV 1–3 xG 1.97–2.41 NLD E
  • W A Telstar 4–0 xG 2.14–0.88 NLD E
  • W H Sion 5–3 xG 4.1–1.66 UEFA ECL
  • W A Sion 4–2 xG 2.82–2.02 UEFA ECL

Willem II

LLDLD 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 14 · xG 6.89–11.23 · xPts 4.52

  • D A AZ Alkmaar 1–1 xG 1.12–2.5 NLD E
  • L H Excelsior 0–3 xG 1.06–1.69 NLD E
  • D H SC Heerenveen 2–2 xG 1.69–1.83 NLD E
  • L H NEC Nijmegen 1–4 xG 1.42–2.78 NLD E
  • L A Go Ahead Eagles 1–4 xG 1.6–2.43 NLD E

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

84.6%Ajax P 86%9.9%Draw P 8%5.5%Willem II P 5%

Over / under 2.5

79.4%Over 2.5 P 80%20.6%Under 2.5 P 20%

Both teams to score

55.1%Yes44.9%No

Expected

Ajax goals
3.39 (1–6)
Willem II goals
0.84 (0–2)
Corners
11.88 (7–17)
Cards
3.5 (1–6)

Earlier: day before — 84.6% / 9.9% / 5.5%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

63.5%Ajax21.0%Draw15.6%Willem II

Over / under 2.5

56.8%Over 2.543.2%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

53.8%Yes46.2%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2home0.1670.036
ou_2_5over0.2310.085
bttsyes0.5960.403

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 32 matches since 2005

Ajax 272 draws3 Willem II

Goals 93–21 · 3.56 per match · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 66%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Ajax 81 draws1 Willem II

Goals 24–7 · 3.1 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Ajax 50 draws0 Willem II

Goals 14–2 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Ajax 5–1 Willem II NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Willem II 1–2 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Ajax 1–0 Willem II NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Willem II 0–1 Ajax neutral NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Ajax 5–0 Willem II NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Ajax 3–1 Willem II NLD E · Regular Season
  • D Willem II 1–1 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
  • L Ajax 0–2 Willem II NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Willem II 1–4 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Ajax 2–0 Willem II NLD E · Regular Season
MetricAjax all · 6Ajax at home · 3Willem II all · 6Willem II away · 3
Results
Matches6–6–
Points per game2.17–0.33–
W / D / L4 / 1 / 1–0 / 2 / 4–
Goals for / match3.17–1.00–
Goals against / match1.17–3.17–
Clean sheets33%–0%–
Failed to score0%–17%–
Both teams scored67%–83%–
Over 2.583%–83%–
Expected goals
xG for / match2.51–1.35–
xG against / match1.18–2.42–
xG difference1.33–-1.07–
Finishing vs xG0.66–-0.35–
xPts / match2.12–0.83–
Points vs xPts0.05–-0.49–
Game state
Scored first83%–33%–
PPG when scoring first2.60–0.50–
PPG when conceding first0.00–0.25–
Came back from behind0%–33%–
Leads held80%–0%–
Minutes leading44%–4%–
Minutes level45%–48%–
Minutes trailing12%–48%–
First goal (min)36–62–
First goal conceded (min)44–37–
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half63%–83%–
Goals conceded in 2nd half57%–63%–
Late goals for (76'+)1.00–0.67–
Late goals against0.50–0.50–
Style
Possession62%–37%–
Shots23.3–11.3–
On target8.0–2.7–
Shot conversion14%–9%–
Shots inside box69%–69%–
Big chances created3.7–2.2–
Corners7.8–3.8–
xG from set plays18%–12%–
Goals from headers22%–0%–
Pressure index23.0–6.3–
Dominant minutes66.2–24.3–
Pass accuracy89%–76%–
Fouls9.2–9.0–
Cards2.17–0.83–

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Ajax

0–15'11
16–30'10
31–45'52
46–60'21
61–75'40
76–90'63

Willem II

0–15'11
16–30'01
31–45'05
46–60'01
61–75'18
76–90'43

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Ajax · 12 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.65) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) +0.90

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.6512
Early press (0-15, level)+0.9012
Late push (76+, level)+0.053

Game state

When ahead+0.6811
When level+0.8012
When behind-0.184
10 min after conceding-0.219
10 min after scoring+0.8112

Situations

At home+0.686
Away+0.626
3 days rest or fewer+0.544
4+ days rest+0.708

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.735
As favourite+0.7311

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.1912
Conceded when ahead-0.2911
Conceded late (76+)-0.399

Congested vs rested -0.17 · Ahead vs level -0.12 · Behind vs level -0.98

Willem II · 6 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.22) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.53

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.226
Early press (0-15, level)-0.406
Late push (76+, level)-0.642
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.433

Game state

When ahead+0.062
When level-0.376
When behind-0.026
10 min after conceding-0.536
10 min after scoring-0.323

Situations

At home-0.083
Away-0.363
4+ days rest-0.226

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.402
v mid-tier opponents-0.083
As underdog-0.375

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.716
Conceded when ahead+0.892
Conceded late (76+)+0.943

Ahead vs level +0.43 · Behind vs level +0.35

Ajax

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 14 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-33 50%2.03.671.672.951.43
4-2-3-12 33%2.02.01.02.040.97
4-4-1-11 17%3.04.00.02.140.88

Willem II

Current: winless 23 · scoring 2 · conceding 24

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 67%0.51.02.751.282.33
4-4-1-11 17%0.01.04.01.422.78
4-4-21 17%0.01.04.01.62.43

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 3.0d before kick-off · 76 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home +1.6 pts at 26.0h

1.11Home 86% ▲ +6.1 ptsopened 1.1711.51Draw 8% ▼ -2.9 ptsopened 8.3618.36Away 5% ▼ -3.2 ptsopened 11.21
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.11 ▲ +6.111.51 ▼ -2.918.36 ▼ -3.210m
bet3651.11 ▲ +6.09.0 ▼ -2.619.0 ▼ -3.410m
Betfair1.08 ▲ +4.410.5 ▼ -2.721.0 ▼ -1.710m
BetVictor1.08 ▲ +6.812.0 ▼ -3.823.0 ▼ -3.010m
Coral1.12 ▲ +6.110.0 ▼ -3.117.0 ▼ -3.010m
Ladbrokes1.12 ▲ +5.510.0 ▼ -3.215.0 ▼ -2.310m
Unibet1.16 · +0.07.5 · +0.013.0 · +0.010m
WilliamHill1.1 ▲ +7.010.0 ▼ -4.817.0 ▼ -2.210m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.11Home 85% P 86%9.0Draw 10% P 8%19.0Away 5% P 5%

Double Chance

1.02Ajax or Draw 47%1.07Ajax or Willem II 45%6.5Draw or Willem II 7%

Draw No Bet

1.021 94%17.02 6%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52%1.95No 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.2Over 78% P 80%4.33Under 22% P 20%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 33%3.612 - 14 24%6.0Over 14 15%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 80–90% · away 0–10% · 1,427 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home86%84%86%+2.1
Draw8%11%9%-1.8
Away5%5%5%-0.3

In those fixtures: 3.6 goals a game · BTTS 44% · over 2.5 69%

Allard Lindhout

Career
254 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
3.04 (2.89 yellow · 0.12 red)
Fouls / match
21.7 · 6.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 108 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.03.32-0.7718
Fouls / match18.720.3-1.03
Fouls per card6.76.2+0.45 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.240.24+0.1255
Time added6.06.4-0.829
First card
46' on average
Card timing
8% in first 30' · 38% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 44%)
VAR events / match
1.1

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-05 30 220 45'5
2026-08-27 91 210 39'6
2026-08-23 20 141 21'5
2026-08-16 –– 17– –4
2026-08-07 –– 17– –4
2026-05-24 · Ajax 30 330 90'8
2026-05-17 40 260 40'5
2026-05-02 · Ajax 30 210 75'5
2026-04-05 30 150 58'6
2026-03-15 –– 11– –2