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Eredivisie · Matchweek 3

Momentum

FC TwenteTelstar
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
3

Venue

Stadium
De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
Capacity
30,205
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,000

Teams

Coaches
John van den Brom · Hendrikus Albertus Brugge
Position
8 · 14
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Richard Martens

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
15.3° (feels 15.0°)
Wind
2.7
Humidity
79%

Where to watch · 3

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 PSV 6510 22715 16 WWWWW
2 AZ Alkmaar 6510 17611 16 WWWWD
3 Feyenoord 6420 20713 14 DWDWW
4 Ajax 6411 19712 13 DWLWW
5 FC Twente 6411 1257 13 WWDWW
6 Excelsior 6312 1376 10 LWWDL
7 Fortuna Sittard 6312 1214-2 10 WLWWL
8 Go Ahead Eagles 6231 15132 9 DWLDD
9 FC Groningen 6222 1213-1 8 WLLDD
10 NEC Nijmegen 6213 1112-1 7 WWLDL
11 SC Heerenveen 6132 79-2 6 DLDLD
12 Sparta Rotterdam 6123 1013-3 5 WDLDL
13 Telstar 6123 511-6 5 LLDLD
14 FC Utrecht 6123 1119-8 5 LDLDW
15 SC Cambuur 6114 918-9 4 LLLDW
16 PEC Zwolle 6114 617-11 4 LWLDL
17 Willem II 6024 619-13 2 LDLDL
18 ADO Den Haag 6015 616-10 1 LLDLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Twente

WLWWD 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 13 GA 6 · xG 11.43–3.87 · xPts 11.4

  • D A FC Groningen 2–2 xG 2.39–1.69 NLD E
  • W A SC Cambuur 4–1 xG 1.96–0.61 NLD E
  • W A Qarabağ 4–1 aet xG 3.08–0.56 UEFA ECL
  • L H Qarabağ 0–1 xG 1.3–0.46 UEFA ECL
  • W H PEC Zwolle 3–1 xG 2.69–0.56 NLD E

Telstar

WWLLD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 11 · xG 7.49–9.64 · xPts 5.7

  • D H SC Cambuur 2–2 xG 2.33–1.15 NLD E
  • L H Ajax 0–4 xG 0.88–2.14 NLD E
  • L H Sparta Rotterdam 1–3 xG 1.43–2.13 NLD E
  • W A NEC Nijmegen 2–1 xG 1.37–2.5 NLD E
  • W A FC Volendam 2–1 xG 1.48–1.72 NLD E

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

73.0%FC Twente P 77%15.5%Draw P 14%11.5%Telstar P 9%

Over / under 2.5

71.7%Over 2.5 P 75%28.3%Under 2.5 P 25%

Both teams to score

59.5%Yes40.5%No

Expected

FC Twente goals
2.71 (1–5)
Telstar goals
1.01 (0–2)
Corners
11.96 (7–17)
Cards
3.34 (1–6)

Earlier: day before — 73.0% / 15.5% / 11.5%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

60.9%FC Twente19.0%Draw20.1%Telstar

Over / under 2.5

66.1%Over 2.533.9%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

60.3%Yes39.7%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2home0.3150.11
bttsno0.9030.708
ou_2_5under1.2641.029

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 3 matches since 2025

FC Twente 12 draws0 Telstar

Goals 2–1 · 1.0 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 0%

Last 10 · 3 matches

FC Twente 12 draws0 Telstar

Goals 2–1 · 1.0 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 0%

Last 5 · 3 matches

FC Twente 12 draws0 Telstar

Goals 2–1 · 1.0 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 0%

Recent meetings

  • W FC Twente 1–0 Telstar NLD E · Regular Season
  • D Telstar 1–1 FC Twente NLD E · Regular Season
  • D FC Twente 0–0 Telstar NLD E · Regular Season
MetricFC Twente all · 6FC Twente at home · 3Telstar all · 6Telstar away · 3
Results
Matches66
Points per game2.170.83
W / D / L4 / 1 / 11 / 2 / 3
Goals for / match2.000.83
Goals against / match0.831.83
Clean sheets33%17%
Failed to score17%50%
Both teams scored50%50%
Over 2.550%67%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.551.20
xG against / match0.692.09
xG difference1.87-0.89
Finishing vs xG-0.55-0.37
xPts / match2.430.92
Points vs xPts-0.27-0.09
Game state
Scored first67%17%
PPG when scoring first2.503.00
PPG when conceding first1.500.25
Came back from behind67%25%
Leads held80%100%
Minutes leading31%16%
Minutes level57%47%
Minutes trailing12%37%
First goal (min)3851
First goal conceded (min)4549
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%60%
Goals conceded in 2nd half40%82%
Late goals for (76'+)0.170.33
Late goals against0.170.50
Style
Possession61%39%
Shots21.78.7
On target8.02.3
Shot conversion9%10%
Shots inside box68%78%
Big chances created3.71.2
Corners7.74.5
xG from set plays28%52%
Goals from headers9%0%
Pressure index21.67.3
Dominant minutes68.331.3
Pass accuracy87%77%
Fouls9.811.2
Cards0.831.67

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FC Twente

0–15'10
16–30'23
31–45'20
46–60'21
61–75'40
76–90'11

Telstar

0–15'11
16–30'10
31–45'01
46–60'05
61–75'11
76–90'23

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Twente · 12 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.46) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.79

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.4612
Early press (0-15, level)+0.3612
Late push (76+, level)+0.545
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.586

Game state

When ahead+0.687
When level+0.3812
When behind+0.458
10 min after conceding+0.018
10 min after scoring+0.7910

Situations

At home+0.616
Away+0.326
3 days rest or fewer+0.735
4+ days rest+0.287

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.735
As favourite+0.5010
Evenly matched+0.312

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.3212
Conceded when ahead-0.217
Conceded late (76+)-0.5310

Congested vs rested +0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.31 · Behind vs level +0.08

Telstar · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.47

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.076
Early press (0-15, level)-0.476
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.052

Game state

When level-0.026
When behind+0.084
10 min after conceding+0.015
10 min after scoring+0.532

Situations

At home+0.263
Away-0.303
4+ days rest+0.055

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.402
v bottom-tier opponents+0.293
As underdog-0.284

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.296
Conceded late (76+)+0.354

Congested vs rested -0.60 · Ahead vs level -0.39 · Behind vs level +0.11

FC Twente

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 2 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-16 100%2.172.00.832.550.69

Telstar

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 5 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-14 67%0.50.51.751.11.98
4-2-3-12 33%1.51.52.01.42.31

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 3.1d before kick-off · 81 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: home -2.4 pts at 10.8h

1.25Home 77% · +0.6 ptsopened 1.236.85Draw 14% · -0.2 ptsopened 6.5910.13Away 9% · -0.4 ptsopened 9.54
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.25 · +0.66.85 · -0.210.13 · -0.45m
bet3651.22 ▲ +5.66.25 ▼ -2.611.0 ▼ -3.05m
Betfair1.22 ▲ +2.66.5 ▼ -1.010.0 ▼ -1.55m
BetVictor1.2 ▲ +4.77.0 ▼ -3.110.5 ▼ -1.65m
Coral1.25 ▲ +3.66.5 ▼ -2.19.0 ▼ -1.55m
Ladbrokes1.25 ▲ +3.66.5 ▼ -2.19.0 ▼ -1.55m
Unibet1.23 ▲ +2.06.4 ▼ -1.510.0 · -0.55m
WilliamHill1.22 ▲ +4.86.0 ▼ -3.09.5 ▼ -1.85m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.22Home 77% P 77%6.25Draw 15% P 14%11.0Away 8% P 9%

Double Chance

1.05FC Twente or Draw 45%1.12FC Twente or Telstar 43%4.0Draw or Telstar 12%

Draw No Bet

1.061 90%10.02 10%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59%2.25No 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.28Over 74% P 75%3.6Under 26% P 25%

Total Corners

17.0Under 6 5%4.56 - 8 20%2.759 - 11 32%3.412 - 14 26%5.0Over 14 18%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 75–77.5% · away 7.5–10% · 515 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home77%76%77%+0.9
Draw14%15%15%-0.5
Away9%9%8%-0.4

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 49% · over 2.5 66%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 72.5–75% · 217 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.575%73%74%+0.3

Richard Martens

Career
67 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
3.57 (3.33 yellow · 0.16 red)
Fouls / match
23.1 · 6.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.33
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 36 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.313.32-0.1132
Fouls / match21.020.3+0.23
Fouls per card6.56.2+0.22 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.360.24+1.64100
Time added7.36.4+1.5291
First card
40' on average
Card timing
11% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 44%)
VAR events / match
1.44

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-22 30 190 40'6
2026-05-17 20 130 87'5
2026-05-10 10 180 89'6
2026-04-04 30 250 45'6
2026-03-01 40 211 23'11
2026-02-01 50 310 33'9
2025-12-13 · Telstar 20 191 4'8
2025-11-08 42 220 23'8
2025-10-04 50 231 65'10