KickoffDNA
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Eredivisie · Matchweek 6

Momentum

SC CambuurNEC Nijmegen
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
6

Venue

Stadium
Kooi Stadion
Capacity
15,000
Attendance
13,454

Teams

Coaches
Johan Plat · Dick Schreuder
Position
18 · 9
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Ingmar Oostrom

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
17.2° (feels 17.1°)
Wind
6.7
Humidity
78%

Where to watch · 6

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 PSV 6510 22715 16 WWWWW
2 AZ Alkmaar 6510 17611 16 WWWWD
3 Feyenoord 6420 20713 14 DWDWW
4 Ajax 6411 19712 13 DWLWW
5 FC Twente 6411 1257 13 WWDWW
6 Excelsior 6312 1376 10 LWWDL
7 Fortuna Sittard 6312 1214-2 10 WLWWL
8 Go Ahead Eagles 6231 15132 9 DWLDD
9 FC Groningen 6222 1213-1 8 WLLDD
10 NEC Nijmegen 6213 1112-1 7 WWLDL
11 SC Heerenveen 6132 79-2 6 DLDLD
12 Sparta Rotterdam 6123 1013-3 5 WDLDL
13 Telstar 6123 511-6 5 LLDLD
14 FC Utrecht 6123 1119-8 5 LDLDW
15 SC Cambuur 6114 918-9 4 LLLDW
16 PEC Zwolle 6114 617-11 4 LWLDL
17 Willem II 6024 619-13 2 LDLDL
18 ADO Den Haag 6015 616-10 1 LLDLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

SC Cambuur

LLLLD 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 18 · xG 6.52–11.39 · xPts 4.16

  • D A Telstar 2–2 xG 1.15–2.33 NLD E
  • L H FC Twente 1–4 xG 0.61–1.96 NLD E
  • L H Feyenoord 2–5 xG 1.83–2.62 NLD E
  • L A Fortuna Sittard 1–3 xG 2.08–1.92 NLD E
  • L H Excelsior 0–4 xG 0.84–2.56 NLD E

NEC Nijmegen

LLWLD 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 12 · xG 6.96–9.35 · xPts 5.59

  • D H Excelsior 2–2 xG 1.21–1.84 NLD E
  • L H Feyenoord 1–3 xG 1.19–1.35 NLD E
  • W A PEC Zwolle 3–1 xG 2.09–2.04 NLD E
  • L A Bodø / Glimt 0–3 xG 0.2–2.48 UEFA CL
  • L H Bodø / Glimt 1–3 xG 2.26–1.65 UEFA CL

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

17.3%SC Cambuur P 19%17.1%Draw P 21%65.6%NEC Nijmegen P 60%

Over / under 2.5

77.4%Over 2.5 P 67%22.6%Under 2.5 P 33%

Both teams to score

69.8%Yes30.2%No

Expected

SC Cambuur goals
1.37 (0–3)
NEC Nijmegen goals
2.71 (1–5)
Corners
8.85 (5–13)
Cards
3.62 (1–6)

Earlier: day before — 17.2% / 17.1% / 65.7%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

30.4%SC Cambuur24.1%Draw45.4%NEC Nijmegen

Over / under 2.5

57.0%Over 2.543.0%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.3%Yes42.7%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2home1.7571.145
bttsno1.1980.975
ou_2_5over0.2560.102

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 9 matches since 2013

SC Cambuur 42 draws3 NEC Nijmegen

Goals 14–10 · 2.67 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 67%

Last 10 · 9 matches

SC Cambuur 42 draws3 NEC Nijmegen

Goals 14–10 · 2.67 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 67%

Last 5 · 5 matches

SC Cambuur 21 draws2 NEC Nijmegen

Goals 7–5 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W SC Cambuur 3–0 NEC Nijmegen NLD E · Regular Season
  • D NEC Nijmegen 0–0 SC Cambuur neutral NLD E · Regular Season
  • L SC Cambuur 0–1 NEC Nijmegen NLD E · Regular Season
  • L SC Cambuur 1–2 NEC Nijmegen NLD E · Regular Season
  • W NEC Nijmegen 2–3 SC Cambuur neutral NLD E · Regular Season
  • L NEC Nijmegen 2–1 SC Cambuur NLD E · Regular Season
  • W SC Cambuur 3–1 NEC Nijmegen NLD E · Regular Season
  • D NEC Nijmegen 1–1 SC Cambuur NLD E · Regular Season
  • W SC Cambuur 2–1 NEC Nijmegen NLD E · Regular Season
MetricSC Cambuur all · 6SC Cambuur at home · 4NEC Nijmegen all · 6NEC Nijmegen away · 3
Results
Matches66
Points per game0.671.17
W / D / L1 / 1 / 42 / 1 / 3
Goals for / match1.501.83
Goals against / match3.002.00
Clean sheets17%0%
Failed to score17%17%
Both teams scored67%83%
Over 2.5100%100%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.591.75
xG against / match2.011.84
xG difference-0.42-0.10
Finishing vs xG-0.090.09
xPts / match1.131.35
Points vs xPts-0.46-0.19
Game state
Scored first33%50%
PPG when scoring first2.002.33
PPG when conceding first0.000.00
Came back from behind0%25%
Leads held50%67%
Minutes leading20%30%
Minutes level25%32%
Minutes trailing55%38%
First goal (min)5139
First goal conceded (min)2540
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half78%64%
Goals conceded in 2nd half39%58%
Late goals for (76'+)0.500.50
Late goals against0.670.33
Style
Possession48%64%
Shots12.514.8
On target4.34.0
Shot conversion12%12%
Shots inside box71%60%
Big chances created2.52.7
Corners3.85.0
xG from set plays21%24%
Goals from headers0%18%
Pressure index11.014.6
Dominant minutes43.557.2
Pass accuracy81%81%
Fouls11.311.5
Cards1.501.83

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

SC Cambuur

0–15'02
16–30'25
31–45'04
46–60'31
61–75'12
76–90'34

NEC Nijmegen

0–15'21
16–30'12
31–45'12
46–60'22
61–75'23
76–90'32

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

SC Cambuur · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.83

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.046
Early press (0-15, level)-0.106
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.142

Game state

When ahead-0.092
When level-0.286
When behind+0.184
10 min after conceding-0.285
10 min after scoring+0.834

Situations

At home-0.074
Away-0.022
4+ days rest-0.046

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.282
v mid-tier opponents+0.072
v bottom-tier opponents-0.022
As underdog-0.015

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.246
Conceded when ahead+0.452
Conceded late (76+)+0.024

Ahead vs level +0.19 · Behind vs level +0.46

NEC Nijmegen · 10 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.53

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.1110
Early press (0-15, level)-0.1410
Late push (76+, level)+0.172
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.245

Game state

When ahead+0.093
When level-0.1810
When behind+0.398
10 min after conceding+0.029
10 min after scoring+0.537

Situations

At home+0.195
Away+0.015
3 days rest or fewer+0.022
4+ days rest+0.148

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.054
v bottom-tier opponents+0.284
As favourite+0.185
Evenly matched+0.083
As underdog-0.142

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.0510
Conceded when ahead-0.033
Conceded late (76+)-0.427

Congested vs rested -0.12 · Ahead vs level +0.27 · Behind vs level +0.57

SC Cambuur

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-32 33%0.01.54.01.962.27
4-2-3-12 33%2.02.51.02.091.51
5-4-11 17%0.01.04.00.611.96
3-4-1-21 17%0.00.04.00.842.56

NEC Nijmegen

Current: winless 4 · conceding 15

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-14 67%1.01.752.01.81.91
3-4-1-22 33%1.52.02.01.641.7

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 4.0d before kick-off · 101 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away -2.1 pts at 12.0h

4.98Home 19% ▲ +2.3 ptsopened 5.484.57Draw 21% ▲ +2.1 ptsopened 4.921.62Away 60% ▼ -4.4 ptsopened 1.46
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%60%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle4.98 ▲ +2.34.57 ▲ +2.11.62 ▼ -4.410m
bet3654.5 ▲ +3.54.75 ▲ +1.51.6 ▼ -4.910m
Betfair4.6 ▲ +3.44.33 ▲ +3.01.57 ▼ -6.510m
BetVictor5.25 ▲ +2.34.75 · +0.21.5 ▼ -2.510m
Coral4.6 ▲ +3.54.4 ▲ +2.71.65 ▼ -6.210m
Ladbrokes4.6 ▲ +3.14.33 ▲ +2.71.61 ▼ -5.810m
Unibet5.3 ▲ +1.14.5 · +0.61.52 ▼ -1.710m
WilliamHill4.5 ▲ +3.84.2 ▲ +2.11.6 ▼ -5.910m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

4.5Home 21% P 19%4.75Draw 20% P 21%1.6Away 59% P 60%

Double Chance

2.3Cambuur Leeuwarden or Draw 20%1.18Cambuur Leeuwarden or NEC 40%1.18Draw or NEC 40%

Draw No Bet

3.751 25%1.252 75%

Both Teams To Score

1.5Yes 62%2.5No 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.4Over 67% P 67%2.87Under 33% P 33%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 24%2.629 - 11 33%3.7512 - 14 23%7.0Over 14 12%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 17.5–20% · away 57.5–60% · 326 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home19%19%15%-3.2
Draw21%23%21%-1.4
Away60%59%63%+4.6

In those fixtures: 3.1 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 59%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 65–67.5% · 870 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.567%66%69%+3.2

Ingmar Oostrom

Career
56 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
3.34 (3.21 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
22.8 · 6.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.21
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 48 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.383.32+0.0346
Fouls / match22.720.3+1.14
Fouls per card7.06.2+0.94 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.230.24-0.0446
Time added6.86.4+0.6282
First card
38' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 27% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 44%)
VAR events / match
1.09

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-06 40 310 10'8
2026-08-14 20 300 55'3
2026-05-17 10 160 55'3
2026-05-02 15 9
2026-04-05 20 221 45'5
2026-03-21 20 210 22'6
2026-02-15 10 140 31'5
2026-01-25 50 270 25'7
2025-12-21 30 230 41'4
2025-11-29 · NEC Nijmegen 60 221 26'6