Rating 7.15 (70th pct) · G+A 3 + 2 (42% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Eredivisie · Matchweek 6
Momentum
– FORAjax –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
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Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Fortuna Sittard | at home | Stat | league | away | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32.8 #18 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 61.5 #3 |
| 9.0 #17 | – | Shots total | 15.0 | – | 23.3 #1 |
| 4.8 #11 | – | Shots on target | 5.4 | – | 7.8 #2 |
| 2.0 #18 | – | Corners | 5.3 | – | 7.8 #3 |
| 9.0 #12 | – | Fouls | 10.3 | – | 9.2 #11 |
| 1.7 #4 | – | Offsides | 1.4 | – | 1.3 #9 |
| 11.3 #17 | – | Tackles | 14.7 | – | 13.7 #11 |
| 67.2 #18 | – | Attacks | 94.5 | – | 118.3 #3 |
| 24.2 #18 | – | Dangerous attacks | 48.9 | – | 72.8 #4 |
| 292.8 #18 | – | Passes | 445.6 | – | 582.2 #2 |
| 1.7 #4 | – | Yellowcards | 1.3 | – | 2.3 #1 |
| 0.2 #1 | – | Redcards | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1.2 #10 | – | Assists | 1.5 | – | 2.2 #3 |
| – #5 | – | Btts | 74.1 | – | – #9 |
| – #10 | – | Cleansheet | 13.9 | – | – #1 |
| – #9 | – | Draw | 25.9 | – | – #9 |
| 0.9 #17 | – | Expected goals | 1.8 | – | 2.6 #4 |
| 1.1 #1 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.2 | – | 0.6 #5 |
| – #5 | – | Failed to score | 13.9 | – | – #11 |
| 2.0 #7 | 1.3 | Goals | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 #3 |
| 2.3 #6 | 2.7 | Goals conceded | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.2 #13 |
| 0.8 #1 | – | Injury time goals | 0.5 | – | 0.7 #2 |
| 7.3 #14 | – | Interceptions | 8.5 | – | 7.7 #12 |
| – #9 | – | Lost | 37.0 | – | – #13 |
| 6.7 #13 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 7.1 #2 |
| 2.3 #17 | – | Shots blocked | 4.0 | – | 7.0 #1 |
| 5.3 #18 | – | Shots insidebox | 9.9 | – | 16.2 #1 |
| 1.8 #18 | – | Shots off target | 5.7 | – | 8.5 #2 |
| 3.7 #13 | – | Shots outsidebox | 5.0 | – | 7.2 #2 |
| – #6 | – | Win | 37.0 | – | – #3 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 53 of 306
- Goals / match
- 3.91 (home 1.64 · away 2.26)
- Home / draw / away
- 26% · 26% · 47%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 74% · 79%
- Cards / match
- 2.75 (reds 0.06)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Fortuna Sittard · 2026/2027 · Eredivisie
Rating 6.95 (53th pct) · G+A 3 + 1 (33% of team goals) · 86% of minutes
Rating 7.07 (64th pct) · G+A 1 + 2 (25% of team goals) · 79% of minutes
Ajax · 2026/2027 · Eredivisie
Rating 7.56 (92th pct) · G+A 1 + 3 (21% of team goals) · 66% of minutes
Rating 7.49 (86th pct) · G+A 1 + 3 (21% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Rating 7.17 (91th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (5% of team goals) · 88% of minutes
Absences
Fortuna Sittard
- injury Iván Márquez defender · Unknown Injury · 10 missed
- injury Kristoffer Peterson attacker · Unknown Injury · 5 missed
- injury Siebe Wylin #15 key player defender · Unknown Injury · 2 missed · until 2026-10-09
- injury Sven Simons midfielder · Hamstring Injury · 11 missed
Ajax
- injury Daley Blind defender · Unknown Injury · 5 missed
- injury Simon Adingra attacker · Ankle Injury · 1 missed · until 2026-09-28
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 6
Venue
- Stadium
- Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
- Capacity
- 12,500
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 12,162
Teams
- Coaches
- Danny Buijs · Míchel
- Position
- 6 · 8
- Formation
- 5-4-1 · 4-3-3
Referee
Jeroen Manschot
Weather
- Conditions
- overcast clouds
- Temperature
- 19.0° (feels 18.8°)
- Wind
- 4.1
- Humidity
- 70%
Where to watch · 80
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2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV |
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar |
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 16 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord |
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 14 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Ajax |
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 13 | DWLWW |
| 5 |  FC Twente |
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 13 | WWDWW |
| 6 |  Excelsior |
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 10 | LWWDL |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard |
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 | WLWWL |
| 8 |  Go Ahead Eagles |
6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 9 | DWLDD |
| 9 |  FC Groningen |
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 | WLLDD |
| 10 |  NEC Nijmegen |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 | WWLDL |
| 11 |  SC Heerenveen |
6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | DLDLD |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 5 | WDLDL |
| 13 |  Telstar |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 | LLDLD |
| 14 |  FC Utrecht |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 5 | LDLDW |
| 15 |  SC Cambuur |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 17 |  Willem II |
6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 2 | LDLDL |
| 18 |  ADO Den Haag |
6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 1 | LLDLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Twente |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWDWW |
| 2 | PSV |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 7 | WWWWW |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 7 | WWWWD |
| 4 | Go Ahead Eagles |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 7 | DWLDD |
| 5 | Ajax |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 4 | DWLWW |
| 6 | FC Groningen |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 | WLLDD |
| 7 | SC Heerenveen |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | DLDLD |
| 8 | Excelsior |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | LWWDL |
| 9 | Fortuna Sittard |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | WLWWL |
| 10 | SC Cambuur |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | LLLDW |
| 11 | Feyenoord |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | DWDWW |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2 | WDLDL |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 | WWLDL |
| 14 | Telstar |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | LLDLD |
| 15 | Willem II |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | LDLDL |
| 16 | FC Utrecht |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 1 | LDLDW |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LLDLL |
| 18 | PEC Zwolle |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | LWLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 12 | DWDWW |
| 2 | Ajax |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 9 | DWLWW |
| 3 | PSV |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 9 | WWWWD |
| 5 | Excelsior |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 7 | LWWDL |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 7 | WLWWL |
| 7 | NEC Nijmegen |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WWLDL |
| 8 | FC Twente |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | WWDWW |
| 9 | FC Utrecht |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 | LDLDW |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 11 | Telstar |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | LLDLD |
| 12 | FC Groningen |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 4 | WLLDD |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 | WDLDL |
| 14 | SC Heerenveen |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | DLDLD |
| 15 | Go Ahead Eagles |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 | DWLDD |
| 16 | SC Cambuur |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 | LLLDW |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | LLDLL |
| 18 | Willem II |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLDL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
- UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
- Relegation Play-off
- Relegation
Fortuna Sittard
DWLWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 11 GA 9 · xG 4.43–12.04 · xPts 3.6
- W
A
ADO Den Haag
3–2
xG 0.59–0.77
NLD E
- W
A
FC Groningen
3–2
xG 0.93–1.89
NLD E
- L
H
AZ Alkmaar
0–2
xG 0.28–4.65
NLD E
- W
H
SC Cambuur
3–1
xG 1.92–2.08
NLD E
- D
A
PSV
2–2
xG 0.71–2.65
NLD E
LDWLWW 3W 1D 2L · 10 pts (1.67 ppg) · GF 11 GA 11 · xG 5.02–14.39 · xPts 3.99
- W
A
ADO Den Haag
3–2
xG 0.59–0.77
NLD E
- W
A
FC Groningen
3–2
xG 0.93–1.89
NLD E
- L
H
AZ Alkmaar
0–2
xG 0.28–4.65
NLD E
- W
H
SC Cambuur
3–1
xG 1.92–2.08
NLD E
- D
A
PSV
2–2
xG 0.71–2.65
NLD E
- L
A
FC Utrecht
0–2
xG 0.6–2.35
NLD E
Ajax
DWWWL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 16 GA 10 · xG 13.13–8.42 · xPts 9.44
- L
H
PSV
1–3
xG 1.97–2.41
NLD E
- W
A
Telstar
4–0
xG 2.14–0.88
NLD E
- W
H
Sion
5–3
xG 4.1–1.66
UEFA ECL - W
A
Sion
4–2
xG 2.82–2.02
UEFA ECL
- D
H
SC Heerenveen
2–2
xG 2.11–1.45
NLD E
WWWWDDWWWL 7W 2D 1L · 23 pts (2.3 ppg) · GF 31 GA 15 · xG 28.93–11.01 · xPts 21.47
- L
H
PSV
1–3
xG 1.97–2.41
NLD E
- W
A
Telstar
4–0
xG 2.14–0.88
NLD E
- W
H
Sion
5–3
xG 4.1–1.66
UEFA ECL
- W
A
Sion
4–2
xG 2.82–2.02
UEFA ECL
- D
H
SC Heerenveen
2–2
xG 2.11–1.45
NLD E
- D
A
Shelbourne
2–2
xG 1.33–0.84
UEFA ECL - W
A
PEC Zwolle
2–0
xG 1.97–0.49
NLD E
- W
H
Shelbourne
3–1
xG 6.61–0.2
UEFA ECL
- W
H
Vojvodina
4–1
xG 4.17–0.25
UEFA ECL - W
A
Vojvodina
4–1
xG 1.71–0.82
UEFA ECL
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·
Match result
21.7%Fortuna Sittard P 13%20.1%Draw P 18%58.2%Ajax P 69%
Over / under 2.5
70.1%Over 2.5 P 69%29.9%Under 2.5 P 31%
Both teams to score
66.5%Yes33.5%No
Expected
- Fortuna Sittard goals
- 1.35 (0–3)
- Ajax goals
- 2.28 (0–4)
- Corners
- 10.72 (6–15)
- Cards
- 3.65 (1–6)
Earlier: day before — 21.7% / 20.0% / 58.2%
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
16.2%Fortuna Sittard20.2%Draw63.6%Ajax
Over / under 2.5
60.9%Over 2.539.1%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
54.4%Yes45.6%No
Scored
| Market | Observed | Log loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2 | away | 0.541 | 0.262 |
| ou_2_5 | over | 0.355 | 0.179 |
| btts | yes | 0.407 | 0.224 |
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 16 matches since 2018
Goals 10–56 · 4.13 per match · BTTS 44% · over 2.5 81%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 7–33 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 80%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 3–19 · 4.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%
Recent meetings
- L Fortuna Sittard 1–5 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- L Ajax 4–1 Fortuna Sittard NLD E · Regular Season
- L Fortuna Sittard 1–3 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- L Fortuna Sittard 0–2 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- L Ajax 5–0 Fortuna Sittard NLD E · Regular Season
- D Ajax 2–2 Fortuna Sittard NLD E · Regular Season
- D Fortuna Sittard 0–0 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- L Ajax 4–0 Fortuna Sittard NLD E · Regular Season
- L Fortuna Sittard 2–3 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- L Ajax 5–0 Fortuna Sittard NLD E · Regular Season
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard all · 6 | Fortuna Sittard at home · 3 | Ajax all · 6 | Ajax away · 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 6 | – | 6 | – |
| Points per game | 1.67 | – | 2.17 | – |
| W / D / L | 3 / 1 / 2 | – | 4 / 1 / 1 | – |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | – | 3.17 | – |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | – | 1.17 | – |
| Clean sheets | 0% | – | 33% | – |
| Failed to score | 17% | – | 0% | – |
| Both teams scored | 83% | – | 67% | – |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | – | 83% | – |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 0.85 | – | 2.51 | – |
| xG against / match | 2.61 | – | 1.18 | – |
| xG difference | -1.76 | – | 1.33 | – |
| Finishing vs xG | 1.15 | – | 0.66 | – |
| xPts / match | 0.63 | – | 2.12 | – |
| Points vs xPts | 1.04 | – | 0.05 | – |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 67% | – | 83% | – |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.50 | – | 2.60 | – |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.00 | – | 0.00 | – |
| Came back from behind | 33% | – | 0% | – |
| Leads held | 75% | – | 80% | – |
| Minutes leading | 42% | – | 44% | – |
| Minutes level | 41% | – | 45% | – |
| Minutes trailing | 17% | – | 12% | – |
| First goal (min) | 28 | – | 36 | – |
| First goal conceded (min) | 41 | – | 44 | – |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 42% | – | 63% | – |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 79% | – | 57% | – |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.33 | – | 1.00 | – |
| Late goals against | 0.83 | – | 0.50 | – |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 33% | – | 62% | – |
| Shots | 9.0 | – | 23.3 | – |
| On target | 4.8 | – | 8.0 | – |
| Shot conversion | 22% | – | 14% | – |
| Shots inside box | 59% | – | 69% | – |
| Big chances created | 1.2 | – | 3.7 | – |
| Corners | 2.0 | – | 7.8 | – |
| xG from set plays | 13% | – | 18% | – |
| Goals from headers | 17% | – | 22% | – |
| Pressure index | 4.7 | – | 23.0 | – |
| Dominant minutes | 25.8 | – | 66.2 | – |
| Pass accuracy | 74% | – | 89% | – |
| Fouls | 8.8 | – | 9.2 | – |
| Cards | 1.67 | – | 2.17 | – |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Fortuna Sittard
0–15'30
16–30'22
31–45'21
46–60'13
61–75'23
76–90'25
Ajax
0–15'11
16–30'10
31–45'52
46–60'21
61–75'40
76–90'63
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Fortuna Sittard · 6 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.30) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.39
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.306
Early press (0-15, level)-0.376
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.253
Game state
When ahead-0.284
When level-0.316
When behind-0.313
10 min after conceding-0.396
10 min after scoring-0.065
Situations
At home-0.223
Away-0.373
4+ days rest-0.306
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.313
v bottom-tier opponents-0.192
As underdog-0.335
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.616
Conceded when ahead+0.524
Conceded late (76+)-0.086
Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level +0.00
Ajax · 12 matches
Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.65) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) +0.90
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.6512
Early press (0-15, level)+0.9012
Late push (76+, level)+0.053
Game state
When ahead+0.6811
When level+0.8012
When behind-0.184
10 min after conceding-0.219
10 min after scoring+0.8112
Situations
At home+0.686
Away+0.626
3 days rest or fewer+0.544
4+ days rest+0.708
Opposition
v bottom-tier opponents+0.735
As favourite+0.7311
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.1912
Conceded when ahead-0.2911
Conceded late (76+)-0.399
Congested vs rested -0.17 · Ahead vs level -0.12 · Behind vs level -0.98
Fortuna Sittard
Current: winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 28
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | 3 50% | 2.33 | 2.67 | 2.0 | 0.74 | 1.77 |
| 5-4-1 | 1 17% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 0.65 | 3.59 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 17% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.28 | 4.65 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 17% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.92 | 2.08 |
Ajax
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 14 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 3 50% | 2.0 | 3.67 | 1.67 | 2.95 | 1.43 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 2 33% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.04 | 0.97 |
| 4-4-1-1 | 1 17% | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.14 | 0.88 |
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard all · 10 | Fortuna Sittard at home · 10 | Ajax all · 10 | Ajax away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | 2.30 | 2.40 |
| W / D / L | 4 / 1 / 5 | 3 / 2 / 5 | 7 / 2 / 1 | 7 / 3 / 0 |
| Goals for / match | 1.70 | 1.50 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Goals against / match | 2.20 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | 20% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% | 80% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 90% | 60% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 0.86 | 1.44 | 2.99 | 1.88 |
| xG against / match | 2.34 | 2.15 | 1.18 | 1.26 |
| xG difference | -1.48 | -0.71 | 1.81 | 0.62 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.84 | 0.06 | 0.31 | 0.82 |
| xPts / match | 0.70 | 1.13 | 2.17 | 1.74 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.60 | -0.03 | 0.13 | 0.67 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 70% | 70% | 80% | 80% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.86 | 1.57 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Came back from behind | 17% | 0% | 67% | 100% |
| Leads held | 57% | 43% | 78% | 78% |
| Minutes leading | 37% | 37% | 51% | 49% |
| Minutes level | 45% | 42% | 40% | 49% |
| Minutes trailing | 18% | 21% | 9% | 2% |
| First goal (min) | 28 | 34 | 30 | 35 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 46 | 56 | 42 | 45 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 47% | 53% | 58% | 63% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 77% | 82% | 53% | 57% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| Late goals against | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 37% | 42% | 63% | 59% |
| Shots | 10.2 | 11.7 | 24.0 | 17.9 |
| On target | 4.5 | 4.0 | 8.9 | 7.1 |
| Shot conversion | 17% | 13% | 14% | 15% |
| Shots inside box | 54% | 69% | 67% | 63% |
| Big chances created | 1.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
| Corners | 2.4 | 4.0 | 8.4 | 6.7 |
| xG from set plays | 20% | 23% | 18% | 16% |
| Goals from headers | 18% | 20% | 19% | 18% |
| Pressure index | 7.3 | 9.0 | 23.7 | 16.3 |
| Dominant minutes | 31.4 | 35.9 | 66.4 | 54.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 75% | 75% | 90% | 87% |
| Fouls | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | 2.00 | 2.30 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Fortuna Sittard
0–15'40
16–30'33
31–45'22
46–60'33
61–75'36
76–90'28
Ajax
0–15'31
16–30'32
31–45'84
46–60'71
61–75'51
76–90'76
Fortuna Sittard
Current: winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 28
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | 3 30% | 2.33 | 2.67 | 2.0 | 0.74 | 1.77 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 2 20% | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.46 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 2 20% | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.33 | 2.27 |
| 5-4-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 0.65 | 3.59 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.28 | 4.65 |
Ajax
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 14 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 6 60% | 2.17 | 3.67 | 2.0 | 2.85 | 1.47 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 2 20% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.04 | 0.97 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 6.61 | 0.2 |
| 4-4-1-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.14 | 0.88 |
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard all · 35 | Fortuna Sittard at home · 18 | Ajax all · 50 | Ajax away · 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 35 | 18 | 50 | 25 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.33 | 1.68 | 1.80 |
| W / D / L | 12 / 6 / 17 | 7 / 3 / 8 | 23 / 15 / 12 | 12 / 9 / 4 |
| Goals for / match | 1.49 | 1.50 | 2.08 | 2.20 |
| Goals against / match | 1.94 | 1.83 | 1.48 | 1.56 |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 17% | 22% | 24% |
| Failed to score | 14% | 6% | 12% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 78% | 70% | 72% |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 67% | 70% | 76% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.30 | 1.52 | 1.92 | 1.56 |
| xG against / match | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.51 | 1.58 |
| xG difference | -0.62 | -0.37 | 0.42 | -0.03 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.18 | -0.02 | 0.16 | 0.64 |
| xPts / match | 1.08 | 1.27 | 1.57 | 1.38 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.42 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 54% | 72% | 52% | 44% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.84 | 1.85 | 2.31 | 2.27 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.44 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Came back from behind | 26% | 11% | 50% | 69% |
| Leads held | 57% | 54% | 70% | 71% |
| Minutes leading | 30% | 39% | 35% | 30% |
| Minutes level | 39% | 39% | 44% | 45% |
| Minutes trailing | 31% | 22% | 21% | 25% |
| First goal (min) | 33 | 30 | 35 | 39 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 37 | 47 | 39 | 33 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 46% | 48% | 52% | 60% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 57% | 73% | 56% | 54% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| Late goals against | 0.54 | 0.56 | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 42% | 42% | 57% | 57% |
| Shots | 11.9 | 12.7 | 16.2 | 14.7 |
| On target | 4.5 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 5.6 |
| Shot conversion | 12% | 12% | 13% | 15% |
| Shots inside box | 61% | 66% | 66% | 62% |
| Big chances created | 2.1 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Corners | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| xG from set plays | 25% | 26% | 20% | 19% |
| Goals from headers | 25% | 22% | 14% | 17% |
| Pressure index | 8.0 | 9.2 | 16.4 | 14.1 |
| Dominant minutes | 35.1 | 37.4 | 54.7 | 49.0 |
| Pass accuracy | 75% | 75% | 86% | 86% |
| Fouls | 11.5 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 9.8 |
| Cards | 2.06 | 1.94 | 1.82 | 2.16 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Fortuna Sittard
0–15'1111
16–30'710
31–45'108
46–60'910
61–75'810
76–90'719
Ajax
0–15'1311
16–30'139
31–45'2412
46–60'2215
61–75'118
76–90'2018
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Fortuna Sittard · 35 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.18) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.1835
Early press (0-15, level)-0.1635
Late push (76+, level)-0.459
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.1218
Game state
When ahead-0.2121
When level-0.2035
When behind-0.1223
10 min after conceding-0.3632
10 min after scoring-0.1030
Situations
With ten men-0.114
At home-0.1918
Away-0.1617
4+ days rest-0.1734
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.3112
v mid-tier opponents-0.299
v bottom-tier opponents-0.019
As favourite+0.113
Evenly matched-0.1011
As underdog-0.2621
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.3635
Conceded when ahead+0.3121
Conceded late (76+)+0.2034
Congested vs rested -0.46 · Ahead vs level -0.01 · Behind vs level +0.08
Ajax · 50 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.24) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.62
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.2450
Early press (0-15, level)+0.2750
Late push (76+, level)-0.1719
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.3115
Game state
When ahead+0.4232
When level+0.1650
When behind+0.1324
10 min after conceding-0.1336
10 min after scoring+0.6243
Situations
Against ten men+0.195
At home+0.2425
Away+0.2425
3 days rest or fewer+0.288
4+ days rest+0.2342
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.1212
v mid-tier opponents+0.1712
v bottom-tier opponents+0.4213
As favourite+0.4032
Evenly matched+0.0510
As underdog-0.228
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.0650
Conceded when ahead-0.1632
Conceded late (76+)-0.0542
Congested vs rested +0.04 · Ahead vs level +0.26 · Behind vs level -0.03
Fortuna Sittard
Current: winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 28
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 19 54% | 1.16 | 1.42 | 1.79 | 1.45 | 1.75 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 11% | 1.5 | 1.75 | 1.5 | 1.03 | 2.25 |
| 4-3-3 | 4 11% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 2.25 | 1.12 | 2.34 |
| 5-3-2 | 4 11% | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.75 | 1.15 | 1.73 |
| 5-4-1 | 3 9% | 0.33 | 1.33 | 3.33 | 1.47 | 2.2 |
Ajax
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 14 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 33 66% | 1.76 | 2.3 | 1.42 | 2.01 | 1.49 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 11 22% | 1.0 | 1.27 | 2.0 | 1.46 | 1.79 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 4% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.68 | 0.56 |
| 5-4-1 | 2 4% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.26 | 1.64 |
| 4-3-2-1 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.84 | 1.02 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away -2.1 pts at 2.2d
7.25Home 13% ▼ -1.5 ptsopened 6.415.38Draw 18% · -0.3 ptsopened 5.181.4Away 69% ▲ +1.8 ptsopened 1.41
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 7.25 ▼ -1.5 | 5.38 · -0.3 | 1.4 ▲ +1.8 | 10m |
| bet365 | 6.25 ▲ +1.8 | 5.25 ▼ -1.6 | 1.4 · -0.1 | 10m |
| Betfair | 7.0 · -0.9 | 5.0 · +0.2 | 1.36 · +0.7 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 7.5 · -0.7 | 5.5 · -0.5 | 1.36 ▲ +1.2 | 10m |
| Coral | 6.5 · +0.0 | 5.25 · +0.0 | 1.4 · +0.0 | 10m |
| Ladbrokes | 6.5 · +0.0 | 5.25 · +0.0 | 1.4 · +0.0 | 10m |
| Unibet | 6.5 · +0.1 | 5.0 · -0.3 | 1.4 · +0.3 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 6.0 · -0.3 | 4.8 · -0.4 | 1.36 · +0.7 | 10m |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: yes -1.9 pts at 1.2h
1.57Yes 59% ▼ -1.9 ptsopened 1.532.25No 41% ▲ +1.9 ptsopened 2.37
Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.57 ▼ -1.9 | 2.25 ▲ +1.9 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.5 ▼ -1.4 | 2.4 ▲ +1.4 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.53 ▼ -1.5 | 2.3 ▲ +1.5 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.52 · +0.2 | 2.35 · -0.2 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 1.55 ▼ -2.3 | 2.3 ▲ +2.3 | 10m |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: under +2.6 pts at 3.0h
1.39Over 69% · +0.0 ptsopened 1.373.11Under 31% · -0.0 ptsopened 3.06
Over Under consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.39 · +0.0 | 3.11 · -0.0 | 10m |
| bet365 | 1.4 ▼ -2.3 | 2.87 ▲ +2.3 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.33 ▲ +1.4 | 3.0 ▼ -1.4 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.36 ▼ -1.9 | 2.9 ▲ +1.9 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.37 · -0.5 | 3.0 · +0.5 | 10m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
6.25Home 15% P 13%5.25Draw 18% P 18%1.4Away 67% P 69%
Double Chance
3.0Fortuna Sittard or Draw 16%1.14Fortuna Sittard or Ajax 42%1.12Draw or Ajax 42%
Draw No Bet
5.01 19%1.162 81%
Both Teams To Score
1.57Yes 59%2.25No 41%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.4Over 67% P 69%2.87Under 33% P 31%
Total Corners
15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 33%3.512 - 14 25%6.0Over 14 14%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 12.5–15% · away 67.5–70% · 116 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 13% | 13% | 18% | +4.8 |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 15% | -3.5 |
| Away | 69% | 69% | 67% | -1.3 |
In those fixtures: 3.1 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 61%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 69% | 69% | +0.6 |
Jeroen Manschot
- Career
- 232 matches · 14 seasons
- Cards / match
- 3.43 (3.31 yellow · 0.09 red)
- Fouls / match
- 20.1 · 5.4 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.26
- Cards to home side
- 49%
Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 114 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 3.58 | 3.32 | +0.46 | 73 |
| Fouls / match | 19.1 | 20.3 | -0.80 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.4 | 6.2 | -1.44 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.3 | 0.24 | +0.84 | 82 |
| Time added | 6.7 | 6.4 | +0.44 | 73 |
- First card
- 37' on average
- Card timing
- 16% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 52% (league 44%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.28
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 28' | 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | 6 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 15' | 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 83' | 6 |
| 2026-05-17 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 33' | 3 |
| 2026-05-10 · Ajax | 4 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4' | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 21' | 26 |
| 2026-04-23 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 15' | 6 |
| 2026-04-12 · Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 3' | 7 |
| 2026-03-22 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 45' | 5 |
| 2026-03-08 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 45' | 15 |