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Eredivisie · Matchweek 5

Momentum

HEEAZ Alkmaar
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Capacity
27,224
Surface
grass
Attendance
22,164

Teams

Coaches
Robin Veldman · Leeroy Echteld
Position
12 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Jeroen Manschot

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
21.7° (feels 21.4°)
Wind
2.5
Humidity
57%

Where to watch · 7

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 PSV 6510 22715 16 WWWWW
2 AZ Alkmaar 6510 17611 16 WWWWD
3 Feyenoord 6420 20713 14 DWDWW
4 Ajax 6411 19712 13 DWLWW
5 FC Twente 6411 1257 13 WWDWW
6 Excelsior 6312 1376 10 LWWDL
7 Fortuna Sittard 6312 1214-2 10 WLWWL
8 Go Ahead Eagles 6231 15132 9 DWLDD
9 FC Groningen 6222 1213-1 8 WLLDD
10 NEC Nijmegen 6213 1112-1 7 WWLDL
11 SC Heerenveen 6132 79-2 6 DLDLD
12 Sparta Rotterdam 6123 1013-3 5 WDLDL
13 Telstar 6123 511-6 5 LLDLD
14 FC Utrecht 6123 1119-8 5 LDLDW
15 SC Cambuur 6114 918-9 4 LLLDW
16 PEC Zwolle 6114 617-11 4 LWLDL
17 Willem II 6024 619-13 2 LDLDL
18 ADO Den Haag 6015 616-10 1 LLDLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

SC Heerenveen

LWDLD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 9 · xG 6.21–9.62 · xPts 4.81

  • D A Willem II 2–2 xG 1.83–1.69 NLD E
  • L H PEC Zwolle 0–2 xG 1.06–1.62 NLD E
  • D A Ajax 2–2 xG 1.45–2.11 NLD E
  • W H FC Twente 1–0 xG 0.58–2.01 NLD E
  • L A FC Utrecht 2–3 xG 1.29–2.19 NLD E

AZ Alkmaar

DWWWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 16 GA 6 · xG 14.13–5.85 · xPts 10.7

  • W H Go Ahead Eagles 5–2 xG 2.8–1.54 NLD E
  • W A Fortuna Sittard 2–0 xG 4.65–0.28 NLD E
  • W A FC Utrecht 4–1 xG 2.5–0.95 NLD E
  • W H ADO Den Haag 2–0 xG 2.72–1.04 NLD E
  • D H NAC Breda 3–3 xG 1.46–2.03 NLD E

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 48 matches since 2005

SC Heerenveen 147 draws27 AZ Alkmaar

Goals 78–110 · 3.92 per match · BTTS 69% · over 2.5 79%

Last 10 · 10 matches

SC Heerenveen 22 draws6 AZ Alkmaar

Goals 13–29 · 4.2 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 80%

Last 5 · 5 matches

SC Heerenveen 20 draws3 AZ Alkmaar

Goals 9–12 · 4.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • L SC Heerenveen 2–3 AZ Alkmaar NLD E · Regular Season
  • L AZ Alkmaar 3–0 SC Heerenveen NLD E · Regular Season
  • W SC Heerenveen 3–1 AZ Alkmaar NLD E · Regular Season
  • L AZ Alkmaar 4–1 SC Heerenveen NLD E · Conference League Play-offs - Semi-finals
  • W SC Heerenveen 3–1 AZ Alkmaar NLD E · Regular Season
  • L AZ Alkmaar 9–1 SC Heerenveen NLD E · Regular Season
  • D SC Heerenveen 2–2 AZ Alkmaar NLD E · Regular Season
  • L AZ Alkmaar 3–0 SC Heerenveen NLD E · Regular Season
  • D AZ Alkmaar 1–1 SC Heerenveen NLD E · Regular Season
  • L SC Heerenveen 0–2 AZ Alkmaar NLD E · Regular Season
MetricSC Heerenveen all · 6SC Heerenveen at home · 4AZ Alkmaar all · 6AZ Alkmaar away · 3
Results
Matches66
Points per game1.002.67
W / D / L1 / 3 / 25 / 1 / 0
Goals for / match1.172.83
Goals against / match1.501.00
Clean sheets33%33%
Failed to score33%0%
Both teams scored50%67%
Over 2.550%50%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.322.78
xG against / match1.661.05
xG difference-0.341.73
Finishing vs xG-0.150.06
xPts / match1.172.22
Points vs xPts-0.170.45
Game state
Scored first17%100%
PPG when scoring first3.002.67
PPG when conceding first0.50
Came back from behind50%100%
Leads held33%83%
Minutes leading15%46%
Minutes level59%47%
Minutes trailing26%7%
First goal (min)4635
First goal conceded (min)3146
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half57%71%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.330.67
Late goals against0.330.33
Style
Possession54%58%
Shots14.819.8
On target5.57.5
Shot conversion8%14%
Shots inside box58%64%
Big chances created1.83.0
Corners5.09.2
xG from set plays17%21%
Goals from headers0%0%
Pressure index12.022.1
Dominant minutes45.866.8
Pass accuracy85%86%
Fouls8.210.2
Cards1.170.83

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

SC Heerenveen

0–15'02
16–30'20
31–45'11
46–60'11
61–75'13
76–90'22

AZ Alkmaar

0–15'20
16–30'03
31–45'30
46–60'40
61–75'41
76–90'42

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

SC Heerenveen · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.046
Early press (0-15, level)+0.106
Late push (76+, level)+0.054
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.363

Game state

When ahead-0.303
When level+0.206
When behind-0.124
10 min after conceding+0.124
10 min after scoring+0.274

Situations

At home-0.064
Away+0.252
4+ days rest+0.046

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.243
v bottom-tier opponents+0.323
As favourite+0.323
As underdog-0.243

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.186
Conceded when ahead+0.933
Conceded late (76+)+0.256

Ahead vs level -0.51 · Behind vs level -0.32

AZ Alkmaar · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.37) · stands out: at home +0.57

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.377
Early press (0-15, level)-0.017
Late push (76+, level)+0.702

Game state

When ahead+0.366
When level+0.327
When behind+0.632
10 min after conceding+0.305
10 min after scoring+0.396

Situations

At home+0.573
Away+0.224
4+ days rest+0.377

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.223
v bottom-tier opponents+0.464
As favourite+0.465

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.177
Conceded when ahead-0.286
Conceded late (76+)-0.316

Ahead vs level +0.04 · Behind vs level +0.31

SC Heerenveen

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 5 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 67%0.51.01.751.381.56
4-1-4-11 17%3.01.00.00.582.01
4-4-21 17%1.02.02.01.831.69

AZ Alkmaar

Current: winless 2 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-16 100%2.672.831.02.781.05

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away +3.4 pts at 20m · late move: away -1.1 pts inside the final hour

3.74Home 26% · +0.7 ptsopened 3.774.04Draw 24% ▲ +1.6 ptsopened 4.241.93Away 50% ▼ -2.3 ptsopened 1.81
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle3.74 · +0.74.04 ▲ +1.61.93 ▼ -2.310m
bet3653.5 ▲ +1.44.1 · +0.01.9 ▼ -1.410m
Betfair3.8 ▲ +1.24.2 · -0.61.75 · -0.710m
BetVictor3.5 ▲ +2.74.33 · -0.81.91 ▼ -1.910m
Coral3.5 ▲ +2.64.0 · +0.91.91 ▼ -3.510m
Ladbrokes3.5 ▲ +2.54.0 · +0.91.85 ▼ -3.410m
Unibet3.9 ▲ +1.13.95 · +0.81.78 ▼ -1.910m
WilliamHill3.4 ▲ +2.53.9 · -0.31.8 ▼ -2.110m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.5Home 27% P 26%4.1Draw 23% P 24%1.9Away 50% P 50%

Double Chance

1.9Heerenveen or Draw 25%1.22Heerenveen or AZ 39%1.28Draw or AZ 37%

Draw No Bet

2.751 34%1.42 66%

Both Teams To Score

1.4Yes 66%2.75No 34%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.4Over 67% P 69%2.87Under 33% P 31%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 34%3.612 - 14 25%6.5Over 14 14%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 25–30% · away 50–55% · 108 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home26%26%20%-5.5
Draw24%23%24%+1.0
Away50%51%56%+4.5

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 64%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.569%69%69%+0.6

Jeroen Manschot

Career
232 matches · 14 seasons
Cards / match
3.43 (3.31 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
20.1 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.26
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 114 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.583.32+0.4673
Fouls / match19.120.3-0.80
Fouls per card5.46.2-1.44 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.30.24+0.8482
Time added6.76.4+0.4473
First card
37' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
52% (league 44%)
VAR events / match
1.28

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-30 60 291 15'4
2026-08-16 10 220 83'6
2026-05-17 20 121 33'3
2026-05-10 40 180 4'7
2026-05-02 50 210 21'26
2026-04-23 · AZ Alkmaar 30 220 15'6
2026-04-12 30 230 3'7
2026-03-22 30 160 45'5
2026-03-08 51 200 45'15
2026-02-21 20 230 23'9