KickoffDNA
0 live
Ligue 1 · Matchweek 5
ParisParis
–
StrasbourgStrasbourg

Momentum

– ParisStrasbourg –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Stade Jean Bouin, Paris
Capacity
15,097
Surface
artificial turf

Teams

Coaches
Liam Rosenior · Hugo Filipe Carvalho Oliveira
Position
4 · 6
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Jeremy Stinat

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
22.3° (feels 21.8°)
Wind
3.5
Humidity
44%

Where to watch · 165

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 LOSC Lille 4310 725 10 WDWW
2 Monaco 4310 624 10 WWWD
3 Rennes 4310 853 10 DWWW
4 Paris 4220 624 8 DWWD
5 Olympique Lyonnais 4220 624 8 WDWD
6 Strasbourg 4211 981 7 LWWD
7 Paris Saint Germain 4121 660 5 DDLW
8 Brest 4121 660 5 DDWL
9 Lorient 4121 440 5 DLWD
10 Lens 4112 871 4 WLLD
11 Angers SCO 4112 45-1 4 LWLD
12 Troyes 4112 49-5 4 DWLL
13 Olympique Marseille 4103 660 3 WLLL
14 Le Mans 4031 78-1 3 DLDD
15 Auxerre 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
16 Le Havre 4022 24-2 2 LDLD
17 Toulouse 4022 47-3 2 LDLD
18 Nice 4022 15-4 2 DLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Paris

DWWD 2W 2D 0L · 8 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 2 · xG 7.04–3.65 · xPts 7.51

  • D H Olympique Lyonnais 0–0 xG 0.58–0.77 FRA L1
  • W A Olympique Marseille 3–2 xG 2.58–1.65 FRA L1
  • W H Nice 3–0 xG 2.5–0.71 FRA L1
  • D A Troyes 0–0 xG 1.38–0.53 FRA L1

Strasbourg

LWWD 2W 1D 1L · 7 pts (1.75 ppg) · GF 9 GA 8 · xG 5.68–8.59 · xPts 3.79

  • D H Monaco 1–1 xG 0.77–1.21 FRA L1
  • W A Troyes 6–2 xG 2.77–2.48 FRA L1
  • W H Lens 2–1 xG 1.86–2.63 FRA L1
  • L A Olympique Marseille 0–4 xG 0.29–2.27 FRA L1

thin sample 2 meetings 2025–2026

Last 2

Paris 01 draws1 Strasbourg

Goals 2–3 · Paris hosting: 0W 0D 1L · Strasbourg hosting: 0W 1D 0L

At Stade Jean Bouin: 1 meeting · Paris 0 · draws 0 · Strasbourg 1 · 5.0 goals per match · last away win Sep 2025

All-time since 2025: 2 meetings · Paris 0 · draws 1 · Strasbourg 1

This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days

MetricFixtureLeagueΔn
Goals per match2.502.81-0.312
Both teams score50%52%-2%2
Over 2.5 goals50%53%-3%2
Corners11.09.5+1.52
Cards3.54.1-0.62

1 goalless · 1 with 4+ goals · 0.50 first-half goals per match

How these games go · 2 with event data

ParisStrasbourg
Scored first0 of 21 of 2
Scored first and won01
Won from behind00

first goal on average in minute 27 · goal after the 75th minute in 1

Expected goals · last 2 with xG

Paris 1.19 xGper match1.67 xG Strasbourg

Deserved on xG: Paris 0 · level 1 · Strasbourg 1 — actual wins in those games 0 / 1

Fixture specialists

  • 1 Kendry Páez Strasbourg · last Sep 2025
  • 1 Guela Doué Strasbourg · last Sep 2025
  • 1 Nouha Dicko Paris · last Sep 2025
  • 1 Emmanuel Emegha Strasbourg · last Sep 2025
  • 1 Alimami Gory Paris · last Sep 2025

Last meeting · 2026-03-15 · FRA L1

Strasbourg 0-0 Paris · ref Benoît Millot

xG 1.37 – 0.65 · corners 16 · cards 1

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·

Match result

43.2%Paris P 47%25.0%Draw P 26%31.8%Strasbourg P 27%

Over / under 2.5

55.4%Over 2.5 P 58%44.6%Under 2.5 P 42%

Both teams to score

58.4%Yes41.6%No

Expected

Paris goals
1.58 (0–3)
Strasbourg goals
1.32 (0–3)
Corners
8.63 (5–13)
Cards
4.09 (2–7)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

42.8%Paris25.7%Draw31.5%Strasbourg

Over / under 2.5

57.3%Over 2.542.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

59.4%Yes40.6%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 2 matches since 2025

Paris 01 draws1 Strasbourg

Goals 2–3 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Paris 01 draws1 Strasbourg

Goals 2–3 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Paris 01 draws1 Strasbourg

Goals 2–3 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • D Strasbourg 0–0 Paris FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Paris 2–3 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricParis all · 4Paris at home · 2Strasbourg all · 4Strasbourg away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Paris · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.12) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.124
Early press (0-15, level)-0.364
Late push (76+, level)-0.313

Game state

When ahead-0.062
When level-0.154
10 min after scoring-0.242

Situations

At home-0.212
Away-0.042
4+ days rest-0.124

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.082
v bottom-tier opponents-0.162
As favourite-0.162

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.104
Conceded when ahead+0.222
Conceded late (76+)-0.194

Ahead vs level +0.09

Strasbourg · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.02

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.044
Early press (0-15, level)+0.114
Late push (76+, level)-0.532

Game state

When ahead+0.393
When level-0.044
When behind-0.063
10 min after conceding-0.144
10 min after scoring+1.023

Situations

At home+0.082
Away+0.002
4+ days rest+0.044

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.053
Evenly matched-0.022
As underdog+0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.214
Conceded when ahead+0.053
Conceded late (76+)+0.044

Ahead vs level +0.43 · Behind vs level -0.02

Paris

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 75%1.671.00.01.490.67
3-4-2-11 25%3.03.02.02.581.65

Strasbourg

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 12

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-33 75%2.333.01.331.82.11
4-2-3-11 25%0.00.04.00.292.27

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 96 snapshots · last 24.2h before kick-off · biggest step: home +1.4 pts at 4.2d

2.05Home 47% · +0.7 ptsopened 2.083.68Draw 26% · -0.1 ptsopened 3.673.65Away 27% · -0.6 ptsopened 3.57
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 7 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.05 · +0.73.68 · -0.13.65 · -0.624.2h
bet3651.95 · +0.23.75 · -0.33.6 · +0.124.2h
Betfair2.0 ▲ +1.13.7 · +0.63.5 ▼ -1.724.2h
BetVictor1.95 ▲ +1.03.6 · -0.13.3 · -1.024.2h
Coral2.05 · +0.03.7 · +0.03.4 · +0.024.2h
Ladbrokes2.0 · +0.63.6 · -0.33.4 · -0.324.2h
WilliamHill2.0 · +0.03.4 · +0.03.4 · +0.024.2h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 24.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.95Home 49% P 47%3.75Draw 25% P 26%3.6Away 26% P 27%

Double Chance

1.28Paris FC or Draw 37%1.25Paris FC or Strasbourg 37%1.8Draw or Strasbourg 26%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59%2.25No 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.61Over 59% P 58%2.3Under 41% P 42%

Total Corners

6.5Under 6 13%2.626 - 8 33%2.759 - 11 31%5.512 - 14 16%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 47%1.83Under 50% P 53%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 25–27.5% · 853 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home47%46%44%-1.8
Draw26%28%30%+1.8
Away27%26%26%+0.0

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 48%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.558%59%60%+0.8

Jeremy Stinat

Career
134 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
4.1 (3.85 yellow · 0.16 red)
Fouls / match
25.3 · 6.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.34
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 90 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.14.06+0.0160
Fouls / match24.324.3+0.08
Fouls per card6.16.0+0.05 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.30.36-0.6020
Time added7.26.7+0.4472
First card
33' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 29% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.18

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-11 50 280 33'5
2026-08-30 · Paris 10 141 18'8
2026-08-23 40 240 22'6
2026-05-10 40 160 9'14
2026-04-25 21 120 10'7
2026-04-19 · Paris 40 170 13'10
2026-03-15 41 230 42'5
2026-03-01 31 250 22'8
2026-02-22 50 191 29'11
2026-01-30 30 300 49'13