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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 5

Momentum

LYORennes
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu
Capacity
59,186
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Paulo Rodrigues Fonseca · Franck Haise
Position
5 · 3
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Mathieu Vernice

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
22.7° (feels 21.9°)
Wind
2.0
Humidity
34%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 LOSC Lille 4310 725 10 WDWW
2 Monaco 4310 624 10 WWWD
3 Rennes 4310 853 10 DWWW
4 Paris 4220 624 8 DWWD
5 Olympique Lyonnais 4220 624 8 WDWD
6 Strasbourg 4211 981 7 LWWD
7 Paris Saint Germain 4121 660 5 DDLW
8 Brest 4121 660 5 DDWL
9 Lorient 4121 440 5 DLWD
10 Lens 4112 871 4 WLLD
11 Angers SCO 4112 45-1 4 LWLD
12 Troyes 4112 49-5 4 DWLL
13 Olympique Marseille 4103 660 3 WLLL
14 Le Mans 4031 78-1 3 DLDD
15 Auxerre 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
16 Le Havre 4022 24-2 2 LDLD
17 Toulouse 4022 47-3 2 LDLD
18 Nice 4022 15-4 2 DLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Olympique Lyonnais

LDWDW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 7 GA 5 · xG 8.35–5.92 · xPts 8.47

  • W A Anderlecht 2–1 xG 1.67–1.35 UEFA EL
  • D A Paris 0–0 xG 0.77–0.58 FRA L1
  • W H Auxerre 3–1 xG 2.7–0.73 FRA L1
  • D H Le Havre 1–1 xG 1.71–0.74 FRA L1
  • L H Fenerbahçe 1–2 xG 1.51–2.52 UEFA CL

Rennes

DWWWD 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 9.41–7.88 · xPts 7.86

  • D A Sturm Graz 0–0 xG 1.81–0.8 UEFA EL
  • W H Olympique Marseille 1–0 xG 1.89–1.0 FRA L1
  • W A Angers SCO 2–1 xG 1.72–2.01 FRA L1
  • W H Le Mans 3–2 xG 3.04–2.51 FRA L1
  • D H Paris Saint Germain 2–2 xG 0.95–1.55 FRA L1

full sample 10 meetings 2021–2026 · 1 on neutral ground

Recurring referee: Stéphanie Frappart · 2 of these meetings

Last 10

Olympique Lyonnais 40 draws6 Rennes

Goals 20–24 · Olympique Lyonnais hosting: 3W 0D 2L · Rennes hosting: 3W 0D 1L

At Groupama Stadium: 5 meetings · Olympique Lyonnais 3 · draws 0 · Rennes 2 · 5.2 goals per match · last away win Jan 2024

All-time since 2005: 41 meetings · Olympique Lyonnais 15 · draws 11 · Rennes 15

  • Both teams have scored in the last 3 meetings
  • Over 2.5 goals in the last 5 meetings

This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days

MetricFixtureLeagueΔn
Goals per match4.402.81+1.5910
Both teams score80%52%+28%10
Over 2.5 goals90%53%+37%10
Corners9.79.5+0.210
Cards4.14.10.09

8 with 4+ goals · 1.90 first-half goals per match · red card in 2

How these games go · 10 with event data

Olympique LyonnaisRennes
Scored first4 of 106 of 10
Scored first and won24
Won from behind22

first goal on average in minute 23 · a side came back in 4 · goal after the 75th minute in 8 · penalty scored in 3

When the goals come · all goals, 10 meetings

0-15'6
16-30'5
31-45'8
46-60'9
61-75'4
76-90'12

6 equalisers · 3 penalties · 2 own goals · 3 headers

Expected goals · last 4 with xG

Olympique Lyonnais 1.99 xGper match1.71 xG Rennes

Deserved on xG: Olympique Lyonnais 2 · level 1 · Rennes 1 — actual wins in those games 2 / 2

Against the market · 10 with closing odds

Favourite won 7 (70%), drew 0, upset 3 · market favoured Olympique Lyonnais 5×, Rennes 5× · avg favourite 44%, avg price of the actual result 39%

Fixture specialists

  • 5 Alexandre Lacazette Olympique Lyonnais · in 4 games · last Apr 2025
  • 4 Corentin Tolisso Olympique Lyonnais · in 4 games · last May 2026
  • 3 Martin Terrier  Rennes · in 2 games · last Oct 2022
  • 2 Kader Meïté Rennes · in 2 games · last Sep 2025
  • 2 Benjamin Bourigeaud Rennes · in 2 games · last Aug 2024

Last meeting · 2026-05-03 · FRA L1

Olympique Lyonnais 4-2 Rennes · ref Clément Turpin

  • 6' Mousa Tamari assist Estéban Lepaul 0–1
  • 37' Roman Yaremchuk assist Corentin Tolisso 1–1
  • 42' Corentin Tolisso (pen) 2–1
  • 48' Estéban Lepaul assist Mousa Tamari 2–2
  • 52' Afonso Moreira assist Abner 3–2
  • 75' Endrick assist Corentin Tolisso 4–2

xG 2.16 – 0.90 · corners 12 · cards 3

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·

Match result

49.4%Olympique Lyonnais P 46%23.8%Draw P 25%26.8%Rennes P 29%

Over / under 2.5

57.9%Over 2.5 P 61%42.1%Under 2.5 P 39%

Both teams to score

59.2%Yes40.8%No

Expected

Olympique Lyonnais goals
1.76 (0–4)
Rennes goals
1.24 (0–3)
Corners
11.09 (6–16)
Cards
3.8 (1–6)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

47.9%Olympique Lyonnais23.1%Draw29.1%Rennes

Over / under 2.5

65.3%Over 2.534.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

64.7%Yes35.3%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 41 matches since 2005

Olympique Lyonnais 1511 draws15 Rennes

Goals 52–57 · 2.66 per match · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 44%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Olympique Lyonnais 40 draws6 Rennes

Goals 20–24 · 4.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 90%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Olympique Lyonnais 20 draws3 Rennes

Goals 11–12 · 4.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W Olympique Lyonnais 4–2 Rennes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Rennes 3–1 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Olympique Lyonnais 4–1 Rennes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Rennes 3–0 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Olympique Lyonnais 2–3 Rennes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Rennes 0–1 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Olympique Lyonnais 3–1 Rennes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Rennes 3–2 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Olympique Lyonnais 2–4 Rennes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Rennes 4–1 Olympique Lyonnais neutral FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricOlympique Lyonnais all · 4Olympique Lyonnais at home · 2Rennes all · 4Rennes away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Olympique Lyonnais · 8 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.42

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.028
Early press (0-15, level)-0.118
Late push (76+, level)-0.353
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.332

Game state

When ahead+0.155
When level-0.128
When behind-0.052
10 min after conceding-0.145
10 min after scoring+0.427

Situations

At home+0.094
Away-0.134
4+ days rest-0.017

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.032
v mid-tier opponents-0.242
v bottom-tier opponents+0.102
As favourite+0.094
Evenly matched-0.163

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.008
Conceded when ahead-0.115
Conceded late (76+)-0.327

Congested vs rested -0.07 · Ahead vs level +0.27 · Behind vs level +0.07

Rennes · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.27) · stands out: when level +0.55

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.275
Early press (0-15, level)+0.245
Late push (76+, level)-0.093

Game state

When ahead+0.014
When level+0.555
10 min after conceding-0.423
10 min after scoring-0.024

Situations

At home-0.123
Away+0.832
4+ days rest+0.275

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.252
v bottom-tier opponents+0.142
As favourite+0.444

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.105
Conceded when ahead+0.174
Conceded late (76+)-0.155

Ahead vs level -0.54

Olympique Lyonnais

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-12 50%1.00.50.51.240.66
4-3-2-11 25%3.03.01.02.70.73
4-3-31 25%3.02.00.01.061.99

Rennes

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-1-4-13 75%2.331.671.01.521.52
4-3-31 25%3.03.02.03.042.51

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 97 snapshots · last 23.8h before kick-off · biggest step: away -1.2 pts at 4.3d

2.12Home 46% · +0.6 ptsopened 2.153.85Draw 25% · +0.2 ptsopened 3.883.3Away 29% · -0.8 ptsopened 3.21
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%

Home Draw Away consensus of 7 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.12 · +0.63.85 · +0.23.3 · -0.823.8h
bet3652.1 · +0.33.7 · +0.53.2 · -0.823.8h
Betfair2.1 ▲ +1.83.8 · -0.23.25 ▼ -1.623.8h
BetVictor2.05 · +0.03.7 · +0.03.0 · +0.023.8h
Coral2.1 · -0.33.8 · -0.53.1 · +0.823.8h
Ladbrokes2.1 · +0.13.8 · -0.23.1 · +0.123.8h
WilliamHill2.1 · -0.93.5 · +0.83.0 · +0.123.8h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 23.8h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.1Home 45% P 46%3.7Draw 26% P 25%3.2Away 30% P 29%

Double Chance

1.36Lyon or Draw 35%1.28Lyon or Rennes 37%1.7Draw or Rennes 28%

Draw No Bet

1.531 61%2.372 39%

Both Teams To Score

1.5Yes 62%2.5No 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.57Over 60% P 61%2.37Under 40% P 39%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 34%3.512 - 14 25%6.5Over 14 14%

Number of Cards

4.52.1Over 44% P 38%1.66Under 56% P 62%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 27.5–30% · 305 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home46%46%50%+4.6
Draw25%26%23%-2.4
Away29%28%26%-2.2

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 55%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.561%61%63%+1.5

Mathieu Vernice

Career
66 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.64 (4.29 yellow · 0.23 red)
Fouls / match
26.9 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.39
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 61 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.524.06+0.8788
Fouls / match26.924.3+1.44
Fouls per card6.06.0+0.02 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.460.36+0.9288
Time added7.36.7+0.5280
First card
29' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.33

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-03 10 250 20'7
2026-08-22 21 273 35'11
2026-07-22 50 300 22'4
2026-07-09 30 250 60'4
2026-05-17 20 170 10'3
2026-05-08 30 300 15'6
2026-04-26 91 222 10'7
2026-04-11 · Rennes 20 241 15'6
2026-03-22 60 320 16'5
2026-03-08 30 290 14'8