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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 5

Momentum

AuxerreBrest
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre
Capacity
18,541
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
William Still · Julien Lachuer
Position
15 · 8
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Guillaume Paradis

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
22.9° (feels 22.5°)
Wind
2.8
Humidity
47%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 LOSC Lille 4310 725 10 WDWW
2 Monaco 4310 624 10 WWWD
3 Rennes 4310 853 10 DWWW
4 Paris 4220 624 8 DWWD
5 Olympique Lyonnais 4220 624 8 WDWD
6 Strasbourg 4211 981 7 LWWD
7 Paris Saint Germain 4121 660 5 DDLW
8 Brest 4121 660 5 DDWL
9 Lorient 4121 440 5 DLWD
10 Lens 4112 871 4 WLLD
11 Angers SCO 4112 45-1 4 LWLD
12 Troyes 4112 49-5 4 DWLL
13 Olympique Marseille 4103 660 3 WLLL
14 Le Mans 4031 78-1 3 DLDD
15 Auxerre 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
16 Le Havre 4022 24-2 2 LDLD
17 Toulouse 4022 47-3 2 LDLD
18 Nice 4022 15-4 2 DLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Auxerre

LLLW 1W 0D 3L · 3 pts (0.75 ppg) · GF 5 GA 11 · xG 5.28–9.18 · xPts 3.75

  • W H Nice 1–0 xG 1.15–0.94 FRA L1
  • L A Olympique Lyonnais 1–3 xG 0.73–2.7 FRA L1
  • L H Angers SCO 1–3 xG 1.59–1.65 FRA L1
  • L A Lens 2–5 xG 1.81–3.89 FRA L1

Brest

DDWL 1W 2D 1L · 5 pts (1.25 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 9.54–4.75 · xPts 8.08

  • L H Paris Saint Germain 0–1 xG 0.97–0.9 FRA L1
  • W A Le Havre 2–1 xG 2.59–2.39 FRA L1
  • D H Toulouse 2–2 xG 2.93–0.72 FRA L1
  • D A Le Mans 2–2 xG 3.04–0.73 FRA L1

full sample 6 meetings 2022–2026

Recurring referee: Jeremy Stinat · 2 of these meetings

Last 6

Auxerre 22 draws2 Brest

Goals 9–6 · Auxerre hosting: 2W 1D 0L · Brest hosting: 2W 1D 0L

At Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 3 meetings · Auxerre 2 · draws 1 · Brest 0 · 2.67 goals per match

All-time since 2010: 10 meetings · Auxerre 3 · draws 3 · Brest 4

This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days

MetricFixtureLeagueΔn
Goals per match2.502.81-0.316
Both teams score33%52%-18%6
Over 2.5 goals50%53%-3%6
Corners8.29.5-1.36
Cards4.24.1+0.16

1 with 4+ goals · 0.83 first-half goals per match · red card in 2

How these games go · 6 with event data

AuxerreBrest
Scored first3 of 63 of 6
Scored first and won22
Won from behind00

first goal on average in minute 39 · a side came back in 2 · goal after the 75th minute in 3 · penalty scored in 1

When the goals come · all goals, 6 meetings

0-15'0
16-30'3
31-45'2
46-60'3
61-75'4
76-90'3

3 equalisers · 1 penalty · 3 headers

Expected goals · last 4 with xG

Auxerre 1.67 xGper match1.51 xG Brest

Deserved on xG: Auxerre 2 · level 1 · Brest 1 — actual wins in those games 2 / 1

Against the market · 6 with closing odds

Favourite won 3 (50%), drew 2, upset 1 · market favoured Auxerre 1×, Brest 5× · avg favourite 44%, avg price of the actual result 38%

Fixture specialists

  • 2 Bryan Okoh Auxerre · last Mar 2026
  • 2 Ludovic Ajorque Brest · in 2 games · last Jan 2026
  • 2 Gaëtan Perrin Auxerre · last Feb 2025
  • 1 Danny Namaso Auxerre · last Mar 2026
  • 1 Joris Chotard Brest · last Jan 2026

Last meeting · 2026-03-21 · FRA L1

Auxerre 3-0 Brest · ref Hakim Ben El Hadj

  • 24' Bryan Okoh assist Romain Faivre 1–0
  • 58' Bryan Okoh assist Romain Faivre 2–0
  • 70' Danny Namaso assist Gideon Mensah 3–0

xG 1.52 – 0.94 · corners 9 · cards 5 · reds 1

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·

Match result

34.3%Auxerre P 34%25.3%Draw P 27%40.4%Brest P 40%

Over / under 2.5

54.7%Over 2.5 P 54%45.3%Under 2.5 P 46%

Both teams to score

58.2%Yes41.8%No

Expected

Auxerre goals
1.37 (0–3)
Brest goals
1.5 (0–3)
Corners
10.33 (6–15)
Cards
4.08 (2–7)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

37.2%Auxerre28.0%Draw34.8%Brest

Over / under 2.5

49.1%Over 2.550.9%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

54.1%Yes45.9%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 10 matches since 2010

Auxerre 33 draws4 Brest

Goals 14–9 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 40%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Auxerre 33 draws4 Brest

Goals 14–9 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Auxerre 21 draws2 Brest

Goals 8–5 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Auxerre 3–0 Brest FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Brest 2–0 Auxerre FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Brest 2–2 Auxerre FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Auxerre 3–0 Brest FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Brest 1–0 Auxerre FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Auxerre 1–1 Brest FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Auxerre 4–0 Brest neutral FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Brest 1–0 Auxerre FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Auxerre 0–1 Brest neutral FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Brest 1–1 Auxerre FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricAuxerre all · 4Auxerre at home · 2Brest all · 4Brest away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Auxerre · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.00) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.44

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.004
Early press (0-15, level)+0.074
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.443

Game state

When level-0.114
When behind+0.133
10 min after conceding+0.043
10 min after scoring+0.074

Situations

At home-0.012
Away+0.022
4+ days rest+0.004

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.022
v bottom-tier opponents-0.012
As underdog+0.022

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.054
Conceded late (76+)-0.094

Ahead vs level -0.21 · Behind vs level +0.24

Brest · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.18) · stands out: when level +0.65

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.184
Early press (0-15, level)+0.434
Late push (76+, level)+1.122
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead-0.192
When level+0.654
When behind-0.073
10 min after conceding-0.204
10 min after scoring+0.453

Situations

At home+0.142
Away+0.212
4+ days rest+0.184

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.212
Evenly matched+0.313

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.124
Conceded when ahead+0.122
Conceded late (76+)-0.204

Ahead vs level -0.84 · Behind vs level -0.72

Auxerre

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 9 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-32 50%0.01.54.01.72.77
3-4-31 25%3.01.00.01.150.94
4-2-3-11 25%0.01.03.00.732.7

Brest

Current: winless 1 · conceding 13

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%1.251.51.52.391.19

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 76 snapshots · last 45.0h before kick-off · biggest step: draw +1.2 pts at 2.2d

2.88Home 34% ▼ -2.5 ptsopened 2.683.6Draw 27% · +0.9 ptsopened 3.722.45Away 40% ▲ +1.7 ptsopened 2.56
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%

Home Draw Away consensus of 7 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.88 ▼ -2.53.6 · +0.92.45 ▲ +1.745.0h
bet3652.87 · -0.73.5 · -0.22.45 · +0.945.0h
Betfair2.9 ▼ -2.23.5 · +0.92.4 ▲ +1.345.0h
BetVictor2.75 ▼ -2.13.4 · -0.12.3 ▲ +2.245.0h
Coral2.8 ▼ -1.33.6 · -0.82.37 ▲ +2.045.0h
Ladbrokes2.8 ▼ -1.03.6 · -0.62.37 ▲ +1.645.0h
WilliamHill2.7 · -0.83.4 · -0.62.38 ▲ +1.445.0h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 45.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.87Home 33% P 34%3.5Draw 27% P 27%2.45Away 39% P 40%

Double Chance

1.53Auxerre or Draw 30%1.28Auxerre or Brest 36%1.4Draw or Brest 33%

Draw No Bet

2.01 46%1.722 54%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58%2.2No 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 54%2.0Under 47% P 46%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56% P 53%2.1Under 44% P 47%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 37.5–40% · 491 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home34%34%31%-2.8
Draw27%28%28%-0.1
Away40%39%42%+3.0

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 53%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.554%54%54%+0.8

Guillaume Paradis

Career
17 matches · 2 seasons
Cards / match
3.94 (3.82 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
24.5 · 6.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.06
Cards to home side
51%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 17 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.824.06-0.5620
Fouls / match24.524.3+0.15
Fouls per card6.46.0+0.50 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.060.36-2.900
Time added8.96.7+1.6796
First card
30' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 25% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-06 20 160 37'10
2026-08-22 30 300 31'7
2026-05-17 30 170 66'5
2026-05-03 50 240 5'8
2026-04-19 · Brest 41 300 41'12
2026-03-21 50 190 5'9
2026-02-28 30 190 45'7
2026-02-06 20 210 7'10
2026-01-25 · Brest 50 320 15'9
2026-01-04 30 170 45'8