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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 4

Momentum

StrasbourgMonaco
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg
Capacity
29,200
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,770

Teams

Coaches
Hugo Filipe Carvalho Oliveira · Filipe Luís
Position
6 · 2
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Eric Wattellier

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
25.5° (feels 25.1°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
38%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Monaco 5410 835 13 WWWDW
2 LOSC Lille 4310 725 10 WDWW
3 Rennes 4310 853 10 DWWW
4 Paris 4220 624 8 DWWD
5 Olympique Lyonnais 4220 624 8 WDWD
6 Strasbourg 4211 981 7 LWWD
7 Paris Saint Germain 4121 660 5 DDLW
8 Brest 4121 660 5 DDWL
9 Lorient 4121 440 5 DLWD
10 Lens 5113 990 4 WLLDL
11 Angers SCO 4112 45-1 4 LWLD
12 Troyes 4112 49-5 4 DWLL
13 Olympique Marseille 4103 660 3 WLLL
14 Le Mans 4031 78-1 3 DLDD
15 Auxerre 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
16 Le Havre 4022 24-2 2 LDLD
17 Toulouse 4022 47-3 2 LDLD
18 Nice 4022 15-4 2 DLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Strasbourg

WLWW 3W 0D 1L · 9 pts (2.25 ppg) · GF 13 GA 11 · xG 6.69–8.95 · xPts 4.3

  • W A Troyes 6–2 xG 2.77–2.48 FRA L1
  • W H Lens 2–1 xG 1.86–2.63 FRA L1
  • L A Olympique Marseille 0–4 xG 0.29–2.27 FRA L1
  • W H Monaco 5–4 xG 1.77–1.57 FRA L1

Monaco

WWWWW 5W 0D 0L · 15 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 12 GA 4 · xG 6.73–7.29 · xPts 6.66

  • W A Paris Saint Germain 2–1 xG 0.5–2.14 FRA L1
  • W H Olympique Marseille 2–0 xG 1.14–1.87 FRA L1
  • W H Górnik Zabrze 4–1 xG 1.86–0.97 UEFA ECL
  • W A Le Havre 1–0 xG 1.47–0.97 FRA L1
  • W A Górnik Zabrze 3–2 xG 1.75–1.34 UEFA ECL

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

38.1%Strasbourg P 31%23.1%Draw P 27%38.7%Monaco P 42%

Over / under 2.5

65.5%Over 2.5 P 60%34.5%Under 2.5 P 40%

Both teams to score

66.6%Yes33.4%No

Expected

Strasbourg goals
1.68 (0–3)
Monaco goals
1.69 (0–3)
Corners
8.73 (5–13)
Cards
4.24 (2–7)

Earlier: day before — 38.1% / 23.1% / 38.7%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

36.6%Strasbourg24.8%Draw38.5%Monaco

Over / under 2.5

60.7%Over 2.539.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

62.8%Yes37.2%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2draw1.4640.886
ou_2_5under1.0640.858
bttsyes0.4070.223

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 23 matches since 2005

Strasbourg 65 draws12 Monaco

Goals 33–44 · 3.35 per match · BTTS 65% · over 2.5 65%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Strasbourg 22 draws6 Monaco

Goals 14–21 · 3.5 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Strasbourg 12 draws2 Monaco

Goals 9–11 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D Strasbourg 1–1 Monaco FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Strasbourg 5–4 Monaco FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Monaco 3–2 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Monaco 0–0 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Strasbourg 1–3 Monaco FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Strasbourg 0–1 Monaco FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Monaco 3–0 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Monaco 4–3 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Strasbourg 1–2 Monaco FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Strasbourg 1–0 Monaco FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricStrasbourg all · 4Strasbourg at home · 2Monaco all · 5Monaco away · 3
Results
Matches5
Points per game2.60
W / D / L4 / 1 / 0
Goals for / match1.60
Goals against / match0.60
Clean sheets40%
Failed to score0%
Both teams scored60%
Over 2.540%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.13
xG against / match1.45
xG difference-0.32
Finishing vs xG0.47
xPts / match1.20
Points vs xPts1.40
Game state
Scored first60%
PPG when scoring first3.00
PPG when conceding first2.00
Came back from behind100%
Leads held100%
Minutes leading45%
Minutes level45%
Minutes trailing10%
First goal (min)38
First goal conceded (min)47
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half62%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%
Late goals for (76'+)0.20
Late goals against0.00
Style
Possession44%
Shots10.2
On target4.6
Shot conversion16%
Shots inside box61%
Big chances created2.8
Corners3.6
xG from set plays14%
Goals from headers43%
Pressure index10.2
Dominant minutes42.6
Pass accuracy86%
Fouls11.0
Cards1.80

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Monaco

0–15'20
16–30'00
31–45'11
46–60'22
61–75'20
76–90'10

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Strasbourg · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.02

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.044
Early press (0-15, level)+0.114
Late push (76+, level)-0.532

Game state

When ahead+0.393
When level-0.044
When behind-0.063
10 min after conceding-0.144
10 min after scoring+1.023

Situations

At home+0.082
Away+0.002
4+ days rest+0.044

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.053
Evenly matched-0.022
As underdog+0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.204
Conceded when ahead+0.053
Conceded late (76+)+0.044

Ahead vs level +0.43 · Behind vs level -0.02

Monaco · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.03) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.43

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.037
Early press (0-15, level)+0.197
Late push (76+, level)+0.162

Game state

When ahead-0.096
When level+0.037
When behind+0.122
10 min after conceding-0.434
10 min after scoring+0.267

Situations

At home-0.113
Away+0.024
3 days rest or fewer-0.052
4+ days rest-0.025

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.223
As favourite-0.044
Evenly matched+0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.107
Conceded when ahead+0.196
Conceded late (76+)+0.106

Congested vs rested -0.03 · Ahead vs level -0.12 · Behind vs level +0.09

Strasbourg

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 12

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-33 75%2.333.01.331.82.11
4-2-3-11 25%0.00.04.00.292.27

Monaco

Current: unbeaten 7 · wins 1 · scoring 8 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 80%2.51.50.51.081.44
4-4-21 20%3.02.01.01.331.48

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: away -1.6 pts at 35m · late move: away -2.4 pts inside the final hour

3.14Home 31% · +0.1 ptsopened 3.143.63Draw 27% ▲ +1.2 ptsopened 3.782.3Away 42% ▼ -1.3 ptsopened 2.22
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle3.14 · +0.13.63 ▲ +1.22.3 ▼ -1.35m
bet3653.1 · -0.33.8 · +0.32.15 · +0.05m
Betfair2.9 · +0.43.4 ▲ +1.62.15 ▼ -2.05m
BetVictor3.0 · +1.03.75 · -0.32.2 · -0.75m
Coral3.1 ▼ -1.13.7 · +0.32.15 · +0.95m
Ladbrokes3.0 · +0.03.7 · +0.02.15 · +0.05m
Unibet3.1 · +0.23.7 · -0.12.1 · -0.15m
WilliamHill3.0 · +0.03.5 · +0.02.1 · +0.05m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.1Home 31% P 31%3.8Draw 25% P 27%2.15Away 44% P 42%

Double Chance

1.66Strasbourg or Draw 28%1.25Strasbourg or Monaco 37%1.36Draw or Monaco 34%

Draw No Bet

2.371 39%1.532 61%

Both Teams To Score

1.5Yes 62%2.5No 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.57Over 60% P 60%2.37Under 40% P 40%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 33%4.7512 - 14 18%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.9Over 49% P 49%1.8Under 51% P 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 40–42.5% · 560 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home31%31%31%-0.2
Draw27%28%24%-4.2
Away42%41%46%+4.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 54%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.560%59%60%+0.8

Eric Wattellier

Career
147 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
3.39 (3.16 yellow · 0.18 red)
Fouls / match
21.6 · 6.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.4
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 94 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.434.06-1.338
Fouls / match20.624.3-1.89
Fouls per card6.16.0+0.04 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.430.36+0.5976
Time added6.36.7-0.2032
First card
40' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.33

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-05 51 230 14'8
2026-08-28 30 180 39'5
2026-08-06 50 220 11'10
2026-07-23 41 220 7'7
2026-05-03 61 142 45'7
2026-04-18 30 160 57'6
2026-04-10 · Monaco 10 110 59'7
2026-04-03 10 170 36'4
2026-03-08 20 161 27'9
2026-02-13 · Monaco 71 230 45'8