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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 4

Momentum

ParisLYO
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Stade Jean Bouin, Paris
Capacity
15,097
Surface
artificial turf
Attendance
17,582

Teams

Coaches
Liam Rosenior · Paulo Rodrigues Fonseca
Position
4 · 3
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Jérôme Brisard

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
20.4° (feels 19.8°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
51%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 LOSC Lille 4310 725 10 WDWW
2 Monaco 4310 624 10 WWWD
3 Rennes 4310 853 10 DWWW
4 Paris 4220 624 8 DWWD
5 Olympique Lyonnais 4220 624 8 WDWD
6 Strasbourg 4211 981 7 LWWD
7 Paris Saint Germain 4121 660 5 DDLW
8 Brest 4121 660 5 DDWL
9 Lorient 4121 440 5 DLWD
10 Lens 4112 871 4 WLLD
11 Angers SCO 4112 45-1 4 LWLD
12 Troyes 4112 49-5 4 DWLL
13 Olympique Marseille 4103 660 3 WLLL
14 Le Mans 4031 78-1 3 DLDD
15 Auxerre 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
16 Le Havre 4022 24-2 2 LDLD
17 Toulouse 4022 47-3 2 LDLD
18 Nice 4022 15-4 2 DLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Paris

WDWW 3W 1D 0L · 10 pts (2.5 ppg) · GF 8 GA 3 · xG 8.51–3.73 · xPts 8.54

  • W A Olympique Marseille 3–2 xG 2.58–1.65 FRA L1
  • W H Nice 3–0 xG 2.5–0.71 FRA L1
  • D A Troyes 0–0 xG 1.38–0.53 FRA L1
  • W H Paris Saint Germain 2–1 xG 2.05–0.84 FRA L1

Olympique Lyonnais

DWLDW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 7.9–6.62 · xPts 7.76

  • W H Auxerre 3–1 xG 2.7–0.73 FRA L1
  • D H Le Havre 1–1 xG 1.71–0.74 FRA L1
  • L H Fenerbahçe 1–2 xG 1.51–2.52 UEFA CL
  • W A Toulouse 2–0 xG 1.06–1.99 FRA L1
  • D A Fenerbahçe 1–1 xG 0.93–0.65 UEFA CL

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

36.6%Paris P 37%25.5%Draw P 27%37.9%Olympique Lyonnais P 35%

Over / under 2.5

54.4%Over 2.5 P 58%45.6%Under 2.5 P 42%

Both teams to score

58.0%Yes42.0%No

Expected

Paris goals
1.41 (0–3)
Olympique Lyonnais goals
1.44 (0–3)
Corners
9.29 (5–14)
Cards
3.97 (2–7)

Earlier: day before — 36.6% / 25.5% / 37.9%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

40.2%Paris26.4%Draw33.5%Olympique Lyonnais

Over / under 2.5

49.7%Over 2.550.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

54.4%Yes45.6%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2draw1.3680.833
bttsno0.8680.673
ou_2_5under0.7850.591

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 3 matches since 2025

Paris 03 draws0 Olympique Lyonnais

Goals 4–4 · 2.67 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 3 matches

Paris 03 draws0 Olympique Lyonnais

Goals 4–4 · 2.67 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 33%

Last 5 · 3 matches

Paris 03 draws0 Olympique Lyonnais

Goals 4–4 · 2.67 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 33%

Recent meetings

  • D Paris 0–0 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Olympique Lyonnais 1–1 Paris FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Paris 3–3 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricParis all · 4Paris at home · 2Olympique Lyonnais all · 4Olympique Lyonnais away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Paris · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.12) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.124
Early press (0-15, level)-0.364
Late push (76+, level)-0.313

Game state

When ahead-0.062
When level-0.154
10 min after scoring-0.242

Situations

At home-0.212
Away-0.042
4+ days rest-0.124

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.082
v bottom-tier opponents-0.162
As favourite-0.162

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.104
Conceded when ahead+0.222
Conceded late (76+)-0.194

Ahead vs level +0.09

Olympique Lyonnais · 8 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.42

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.028
Early press (0-15, level)-0.118
Late push (76+, level)-0.353
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.332

Game state

When ahead+0.155
When level-0.128
When behind-0.052
10 min after conceding-0.145
10 min after scoring+0.427

Situations

At home+0.094
Away-0.134
4+ days rest-0.017

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.032
v mid-tier opponents-0.242
v bottom-tier opponents+0.102
As favourite+0.094
Evenly matched-0.163

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.008
Conceded when ahead-0.115
Conceded late (76+)-0.327

Congested vs rested -0.07 · Ahead vs level +0.27 · Behind vs level +0.07

Paris

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 75%1.671.00.01.490.67
3-4-2-11 25%3.03.02.02.581.65

Olympique Lyonnais

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-12 50%1.00.50.51.240.66
4-3-31 25%3.02.00.01.061.99
4-3-2-11 25%3.03.01.02.70.73

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: home -1.5 pts at 15m · late move: draw +1.1 pts inside the final hour

2.61Home 37% · +0.7 ptsopened 2.653.56Draw 27% ▲ +1.6 ptsopened 3.762.75Away 35% ▼ -2.3 ptsopened 2.57
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.61 · +0.73.56 ▲ +1.62.75 ▼ -2.35m
bet3652.45 ▲ +2.63.6 ▼ -1.22.62 ▼ -1.35m
Betfair2.5 ▲ +1.63.5 · +0.12.63 ▼ -1.75m
BetVictor2.5 ▲ +1.73.6 · -0.12.63 ▼ -1.65m
Coral2.45 ▲ +3.63.6 · +0.02.7 ▼ -3.65m
Ladbrokes2.4 ▲ +3.43.6 · +0.12.7 ▼ -3.45m
Unibet2.6 · +0.03.4 · +0.02.55 · +0.05m
WilliamHill2.45 ▲ +2.13.5 ▼ -1.02.5 ▼ -1.15m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.45Home 38% P 37%3.6Draw 26% P 27%2.62Away 36% P 35%

Double Chance

1.5Paris FC or Draw 31%1.25Paris FC or Lyon 38%1.53Draw or Lyon 31%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.5Yes 62%2.5No 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.57Over 60% P 58%2.37Under 40% P 42%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 33%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.8Over 51% P 53%1.9Under 49% P 47%
4.52.1Over 44% P 36%1.66Under 56% P 64%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 35–37.5% · 584 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home37%36%35%-0.6
Draw27%28%28%+0.2
Away35%36%36%+0.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 53%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.558%59%60%+0.8

Jérôme Brisard

Career
207 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.0 (3.73 yellow · 0.2 red)
Fouls / match
24.4 · 6.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.35
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 89 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.914.06-0.3828
Fouls / match23.424.3-0.39
Fouls per card6.16.0+0.13 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.360.36-0.0344
Time added7.46.7+0.5988
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.1

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-04 20 190 68'7
2026-08-29 50 370 31'8
2026-08-20 20 120 45'8
2026-05-10 17 13
2026-04-19 · Olympique Lyonnais 60 181 13'10
2026-04-05 31 240 38'7
2026-03-15 70 230 16'15
2026-03-01 · Olympique Lyonnais 50 240 30'16
2026-02-15 61 230 2'12
2026-01-16 10 200 62'6