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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 4

Momentum

LOSC LilleTroyes
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
Capacity
50,186
Surface
grass
Attendance
43,058

Teams

Coaches
Davide Ancelotti · Stéphane Dumont
Position
5 · 10
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Romain Lissorgue

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
20.7° (feels 20.9°)
Wind
5.7
Humidity
82%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 LOSC Lille 4310 725 10 WDWW
2 Monaco 4310 624 10 WWWD
3 Rennes 4310 853 10 DWWW
4 Paris 4220 624 8 DWWD
5 Olympique Lyonnais 4220 624 8 WDWD
6 Strasbourg 4211 981 7 LWWD
7 Paris Saint Germain 4121 660 5 DDLW
8 Brest 4121 660 5 DDWL
9 Lorient 4121 440 5 DLWD
10 Lens 4112 871 4 WLLD
11 Angers SCO 4112 45-1 4 LWLD
12 Troyes 4112 49-5 4 DWLL
13 Olympique Marseille 4103 660 3 WLLL
14 Le Mans 4031 78-1 3 DLDD
15 Auxerre 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
16 Le Havre 4022 24-2 2 LDLD
17 Toulouse 4022 47-3 2 LDLD
18 Nice 4022 15-4 2 DLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

LOSC Lille

LWDWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 7 · xG 5.76–8.76 · xPts 5.37

  • L H Real Betis 2–3 xG 0.96–1.75 UEFA CL
  • W A Toulouse 1–0 xG 1.17–2.94 FRA L1
  • D H Paris Saint Germain 2–2 xG 0.99–1.41 FRA L1
  • W A Angers SCO 2–0 xG 0.96–2.28 FRA L1
  • L H Auxerre 0–2 xG 1.68–0.38 FRA L1

Troyes

DWL 1W 1D 1L · 4 pts (1.33 ppg) · GF 4 GA 7 · xG 4.72–5.5 · xPts 3.59

  • L H Strasbourg 2–6 xG 2.48–2.77 FRA L1
  • W A Lorient 2–1 xG 1.71–1.35 FRA L1
  • D H Paris 0–0 xG 0.53–1.38 FRA L1

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

69.3%LOSC Lille P 64%18.0%Draw P 21%12.7%Troyes P 15%

Over / under 2.5

63.2%Over 2.5 P 60%36.8%Under 2.5 P 40%

Both teams to score

54.1%Yes45.9%No

Expected

LOSC Lille goals
2.35 (1–4)
Troyes goals
0.91 (0–2)
Corners
9.25 (5–14)
Cards
3.82 (1–6)

Earlier: day before — 69.3% / 18.0% / 12.7%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

45.4%LOSC Lille25.7%Draw29.0%Troyes

Over / under 2.5

50.8%Over 2.549.2%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

53.3%Yes46.7%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2home0.3660.142
bttsno0.7790.586
ou_2_5under0.9990.798

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 15 matches since 2005

LOSC Lille 46 draws5 Troyes

Goals 22–19 · 2.73 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 47%

Last 10 · 10 matches

LOSC Lille 34 draws3 Troyes

Goals 15–14 · 2.9 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

LOSC Lille 31 draws1 Troyes

Goals 10–6 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W LOSC Lille 2–0 Troyes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Troyes 1–1 LOSC Lille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W LOSC Lille 5–1 Troyes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Troyes 3–0 LOSC Lille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W LOSC Lille 2–1 Troyes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Troyes 1–0 LOSC Lille neutral FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D LOSC Lille 2–2 Troyes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L LOSC Lille 1–3 Troyes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Troyes 1–1 LOSC Lille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D LOSC Lille 1–1 Troyes FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricLOSC Lille all · 4LOSC Lille at home · 2Troyes all · 4Troyes away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

LOSC Lille · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.05) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.38

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.055
Early press (0-15, level)+0.255

Game state

When ahead-0.065
When level+0.025
10 min after conceding-0.522
10 min after scoring+0.385

Situations

At home+0.023
Away-0.172
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.182
As favourite+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.265
Conceded when ahead+0.155
Conceded late (76+)-0.155

Ahead vs level -0.08 · Behind vs level -0.26

Troyes · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.64

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.014
Early press (0-15, level)-0.214
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.192

Game state

When ahead+0.272
When level-0.074
When behind-0.092
10 min after conceding-0.643
10 min after scoring+0.542

Situations

At home+0.142
Away-0.112
4+ days rest+0.014

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.063
As underdog-0.073

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.052
Conceded late (76+)+0.074

Ahead vs level +0.35 · Behind vs level -0.01

LOSC Lille

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%2.51.750.51.151.77

Troyes

Current: winless 2 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 75%1.01.333.01.551.86
4-3-31 25%1.00.00.00.531.38

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home -1.7 pts at 30m · late move: home -3.5 pts inside the final hour

1.52Home 64% ▼ -5.0 ptsopened 1.44.58Draw 21% ▲ +2.1 ptsopened 5.046.34Away 15% ▲ +3.0 ptsopened 7.81
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

Home Draw Away consensus of 7 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.52 ▼ -5.04.58 ▲ +2.16.34 ▲ +3.010m
bet3651.48 ▼ -2.34.5 ▲ +1.56.25 · +0.910m
Betfair1.44 ▼ -2.54.5 · +0.46.5 ▲ +2.110m
BetVictor1.5 ▼ -4.24.5 · +0.76.0 ▲ +3.610m
Ladbrokes1.48 ▼ -4.34.6 · +0.65.75 ▲ +3.710m
Unibet1.41 · -0.34.5 · +0.47.0 · -0.110m
WilliamHill1.44 ▼ -2.44.4 · +0.36.0 ▲ +2.110m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.48Home 64% P 64%4.5Draw 21% P 21%6.25Away 15% P 15%

Double Chance

1.1Lille or Draw 43%1.18Lille or Troyes 40%2.75Draw or Troyes 17%

Draw No Bet

1.141 83%5.52 17%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52%1.95No 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.61Over 59% P 60%2.3Under 41% P 40%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.52.1Over 44% P 45%1.66Under 56% P 55%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 62.5–65% · away 15–17.5% · 338 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home64%63%64%+0.7
Draw21%21%19%-2.0
Away15%16%17%+1.3

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 62%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.560%61%63%+1.5

Romain Lissorgue

Career
60 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.05 (3.7 yellow · 0.25 red)
Fouls / match
26.0 · 6.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.42
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 54 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.24.06+0.2264
Fouls / match26.324.3+1.12
Fouls per card6.46.0+0.46 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.460.36+0.9692
Time added7.16.7+0.3764
First card
33' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 24% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.43

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-30 51 302 48'12
2026-08-22 10 230 37'14
2026-07-23 30 260 52'6
2026-07-07 30 200 76'7
2026-03-08 30 171 36'11
2026-02-20 50 271 67'6
2026-02-01 30 250 34'5
2026-01-18 21 270 19'9
2025-12-13 30 200 16'10
2025-11-30 30 180 27'10