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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 3
ToulouseToulouse
0–1
FT
LOSC LilleLOSC Lille

Momentum

– ToulouseLOSC Lille –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
3

Venue

Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Capacity
33,150
Attendance
19,453

Teams

Coaches
Jens Askou · Davide Ancelotti
Position
16 · 3
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Mathieu Vernice

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
26.1° (feels 26.1°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
36%

Where to watch · 239

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 LOSC Lille 4310 725 10 WDWW
2 Monaco 4310 624 10 WWWD
3 Rennes 4310 853 10 DWWW
4 Paris 4220 624 8 DWWD
5 Olympique Lyonnais 4220 624 8 WDWD
6 Strasbourg 4211 981 7 LWWD
7 Paris Saint Germain 4121 660 5 DDLW
8 Brest 4121 660 5 DDWL
9 Lorient 4121 440 5 DLWD
10 Lens 4112 871 4 WLLD
11 Angers SCO 4112 45-1 4 LWLD
12 Troyes 4112 49-5 4 DWLL
13 Olympique Marseille 4103 660 3 WLLL
14 Le Mans 4031 78-1 3 DLDD
15 Auxerre 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
16 Le Havre 4022 24-2 2 LDLD
17 Toulouse 4022 47-3 2 LDLD
18 Nice 4022 15-4 2 DLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Toulouse

WLD 1W 1D 1L · 4 pts (1.33 ppg) · GF 4 GA 5 · xG 4.06–5.75 · xPts 3.41

  • D A Brest 2–2 xG 0.72–2.93 FRA L1
  • L H Olympique Lyonnais 0–2 xG 1.99–1.06 FRA L1
  • W H Olympique Lyonnais 2–1 xG 1.35–1.76 FRA L1

LOSC Lille

WLWD 2W 1D 1L · 7 pts (1.75 ppg) · GF 5 GA 4 · xG 4.09–4.53 · xPts 5.26

  • D H Paris Saint Germain 2–2 xG 0.99–1.41 FRA L1
  • W A Angers SCO 2–0 xG 0.96–2.28 FRA L1
  • L H Auxerre 0–2 xG 1.68–0.38 FRA L1
  • W A Monaco 1–0 xG 0.47–0.47 FRA L1

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 39 matches since 2005

Toulouse 911 draws19 LOSC Lille

Goals 37–55 · 2.36 per match · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 46%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Toulouse 11 draws8 LOSC Lille

Goals 8–20 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Toulouse 00 draws5 LOSC Lille

Goals 3–11 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L Toulouse 0–1 LOSC Lille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 0–4 LOSC Lille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L LOSC Lille 2–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 1–2 LOSC Lille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L LOSC Lille 2–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 3–1 LOSC Lille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D LOSC Lille 1–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 0–2 LOSC Lille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L LOSC Lille 2–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L LOSC Lille 3–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricToulouse all · 4Toulouse at home · 2LOSC Lille all · 4LOSC Lille away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.392

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

LOSC Lille · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.05) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.38

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.055
Early press (0-15, level)+0.255

Game state

When ahead-0.065
When level+0.025
10 min after conceding-0.522
10 min after scoring+0.385

Situations

At home+0.023
Away-0.172
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.182
As favourite+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.265
Conceded when ahead+0.155
Conceded late (76+)-0.155

Ahead vs level -0.08 · Behind vs level -0.26

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%0.51.01.751.791.52

LOSC Lille

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%2.51.750.51.151.77

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 3.9d before kick-off · 101 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: away +1.6 pts at 18.8h

4.32Home 22% ▼ -5.0 ptsopened 3.53.64Draw 27% ▼ -1.7 ptsopened 3.391.91Away 51% ▲ +6.7 ptsopened 2.18
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle4.32 ▼ -5.03.64 ▼ -1.71.91 ▲ +6.75m
bet3653.75 ▼ -4.83.6 ▼ -2.41.95 ▲ +7.15m
Betfair4.1 ▼ -7.83.5 ▼ -1.11.87 ▲ +8.95m
BetVictor4.2 ▼ -8.13.5 ▼ -1.71.87 ▲ +9.85m
Coral3.8 ▼ -5.63.5 ▼ -1.71.95 ▲ +7.35m
Ladbrokes3.75 ▼ -5.33.5 ▼ -2.11.95 ▲ +7.35m
Unibet3.7 ▼ -5.43.4 ▼ -1.31.96 ▲ +6.65m
WilliamHill4.0 ▼ -7.83.4 ▼ -1.81.85 ▲ +9.65m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.75Home 25% P 22%3.6Draw 26% P 27%1.95Away 49% P 51%

Double Chance

1.8Toulouse or Draw 26%1.28Toulouse or Lille 37%1.25Draw or Lille 37%

Draw No Bet

2.751 34%1.42 66%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 53%2.0No 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 52%2.0Under 47% P 48%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 34%4.7512 - 14 19%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

4.51.66Over 56% P 51%2.1Under 44% P 49%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 20–22.5% · away 50–52.5% · 274 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home22%22%15%-7.0
Draw27%27%27%+0.4
Away51%51%58%+6.6

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 51%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.552%51%51%-0.1

Mathieu Vernice

Career
66 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.64 (4.29 yellow · 0.23 red)
Fouls / match
26.9 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.39
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 61 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.524.06+0.8788
Fouls / match26.924.3+1.44
Fouls per card6.06.0+0.02 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.460.36+0.9288
Time added7.36.7+0.5280
First card
29' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.33

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-22 21 273 35'11
2026-07-22 50 300 22'4
2026-07-09 30 250 60'4
2026-05-17 20 170 10'3
2026-05-08 30 300 15'6
2026-04-26 · LOSC Lille 91 222 10'7
2026-04-11 20 241 15'6
2026-03-22 60 320 16'5
2026-03-08 30 290 14'8
2026-02-22 · LOSC Lille 40 251 21'6