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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 3

Momentum

OMParis
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
3

Venue

Stadium
Stade Vélodrome, Marseille
Capacity
67,395
Surface
grass
Attendance
55,955

Teams

Coaches
Bruno Génésio · Liam Rosenior
Position
10 · 6
Formation
4-1-4-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Clément Turpin

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
26.9° (feels 29.1°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
75%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 LOSC Lille 4310 725 10 WDWW
2 Monaco 4310 624 10 WWWD
3 Rennes 4310 853 10 DWWW
4 Paris 4220 624 8 DWWD
5 Olympique Lyonnais 4220 624 8 WDWD
6 Strasbourg 4211 981 7 LWWD
7 Paris Saint Germain 4121 660 5 DDLW
8 Brest 4121 660 5 DDWL
9 Lorient 4121 440 5 DLWD
10 Lens 4112 871 4 WLLD
11 Angers SCO 4112 45-1 4 LWLD
12 Troyes 4112 49-5 4 DWLL
13 Olympique Marseille 4103 660 3 WLLL
14 Le Mans 4031 78-1 3 DLDD
15 Auxerre 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
16 Le Havre 4022 24-2 2 LDLD
17 Toulouse 4022 47-3 2 LDLD
18 Nice 4022 15-4 2 DLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Olympique Marseille

WWWL 3W 0D 1L · 9 pts (2.25 ppg) · GF 8 GA 3 · xG 8.12–5.49 · xPts 7.14

  • L A Monaco 0–2 xG 1.87–1.14 FRA L1
  • W H Strasbourg 4–0 xG 2.27–0.29 FRA L1
  • W H Rennes 3–1 xG 2.87–2.53 FRA L1
  • W A Le Havre 1–0 xG 1.11–1.53 FRA L1

Paris

LWDW 2W 1D 1L · 7 pts (1.75 ppg) · GF 6 GA 3 · xG 7.27–3.33 · xPts 8.05

  • W H Nice 3–0 xG 2.5–0.71 FRA L1
  • D A Troyes 0–0 xG 1.38–0.53 FRA L1
  • W H Paris Saint Germain 2–1 xG 2.05–0.84 FRA L1
  • L A Rennes 1–2 xG 1.34–1.25 FRA L1

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 3 matches since 2025

Olympique Marseille 11 draws1 Paris

Goals 9–7 · 5.33 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 3 matches

Olympique Marseille 11 draws1 Paris

Goals 9–7 · 5.33 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 3 matches

Olympique Marseille 11 draws1 Paris

Goals 9–7 · 5.33 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • L Olympique Marseille 2–3 Paris FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Paris 2–2 Olympique Marseille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Olympique Marseille 5–2 Paris FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricOlympique Marseille all · 4Olympique Marseille at home · 2Paris all · 4Paris away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Olympique Marseille · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.56

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.105
Early press (0-15, level)+0.435
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.064

Game state

When level+0.245
When behind-0.024
10 min after conceding-0.104
10 min after scoring+0.563

Situations

At home+0.282
Away-0.033
4+ days rest+0.105

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.173
As favourite+0.282
As underdog-0.172

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.065
Conceded late (76+)-0.325

Ahead vs level -0.19 · Behind vs level -0.27

Paris · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.12) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.124
Early press (0-15, level)-0.364
Late push (76+, level)-0.313

Game state

When ahead-0.062
When level-0.154
10 min after scoring-0.242

Situations

At home-0.212
Away-0.042
4+ days rest-0.124

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.082
v bottom-tier opponents-0.162
As favourite-0.162

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.104
Conceded when ahead+0.222
Conceded late (76+)-0.194

Ahead vs level +0.09

Olympique Marseille

Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-1-4-12 50%0.01.02.01.332.24
4-2-3-12 50%1.52.01.02.070.71

Paris

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 75%1.671.00.01.490.67
3-4-2-11 25%3.03.02.02.581.65

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: home -2.5 pts at 12.8h

1.94Home 50% ▼ -3.3 ptsopened 1.813.81Draw 25% ▲ +1.5 ptsopened 4.023.97Away 24% ▲ +1.8 ptsopened 4.26
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.94 ▼ -3.33.81 ▲ +1.53.97 ▲ +1.85m
bet3651.9 ▼ -4.13.75 ▲ +1.73.75 ▲ +2.35m
Betfair1.8 ▼ -1.84.0 · +0.64.2 ▲ +1.25m
BetVictor1.9 ▼ -3.43.75 · +0.73.75 ▲ +2.85m
Coral1.91 ▼ -4.43.75 ▲ +1.63.75 ▲ +2.85m
Ladbrokes1.91 ▼ -4.13.75 ▲ +1.23.75 ▲ +2.95m
Unibet1.74 ▼ -2.23.85 · +0.64.2 ▲ +1.55m
WilliamHill1.85 ▼ -4.03.6 · +0.83.6 ▲ +3.15m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.9Home 50% P 50%3.75Draw 25% P 25%3.75Away 25% P 24%

Double Chance

1.25Marseille or Draw 38%1.25Marseille or Paris FC 38%1.9Draw or Paris FC 25%

Draw No Bet

1.361 69%3.02 31%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 56%2.1Under 45% P 44%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

2.51.57Over 59% P 67%2.25Under 41% P 33%
3.51.9Over 49% P 46%1.8Under 51% P 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 50–52.5% · away 22.5–25% · 500 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home50%51%53%+2.3
Draw25%25%23%-2.6
Away24%23%24%+0.3

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 55%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.556%56%56%-0.2

Clément Turpin

Career
413 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
3.74 (3.47 yellow · 0.21 red)
Fouls / match
21.9 · 5.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.39
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 90 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.494.06-1.2412
Fouls / match23.724.3-0.25
Fouls per card6.96.0+1.14 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.290.36-0.7016
Time added6.16.7-0.3524
First card
33' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
49% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.11

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-26 30 251 51'5
2026-05-17 30 221 41'7
2026-05-10 40 230 23'8
2026-05-03 30 241 23'13
2026-04-25 50 270 31'5
2026-04-22 30 191 35'6
2026-04-14 11 230 69'12
2026-04-05 · Olympique Marseille 40 230 8'7
2026-03-22 · Paris 11 220 55'7
2026-03-17 31 131 20'13