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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 1

Momentum

ToulouseLYO
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
1

Venue

Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Capacity
33,150
Attendance
25,837

Teams

Coaches
Jens Askou · Paulo Rodrigues Fonseca
Position
5 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Guillaume Paradis

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
25.1° (feels 24.8°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
44%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Monaco 5410 835 13 WWWDW
2 LOSC Lille 4310 725 10 WDWW
3 Rennes 4310 853 10 DWWW
4 Paris 4220 624 8 DWWD
5 Olympique Lyonnais 4220 624 8 WDWD
6 Strasbourg 4211 981 7 LWWD
7 Paris Saint Germain 4121 660 5 DDLW
8 Brest 4121 660 5 DDWL
9 Lorient 4121 440 5 DLWD
10 Lens 5113 990 4 WLLDL
11 Angers SCO 4112 45-1 4 LWLD
12 Troyes 4112 49-5 4 DWLL
13 Olympique Marseille 4103 660 3 WLLL
14 Le Mans 4031 78-1 3 DLDD
15 Auxerre 4103 511-6 3 LLLW
16 Le Havre 4022 24-2 2 LDLD
17 Toulouse 4022 47-3 2 LDLD
18 Nice 4022 15-4 2 DLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Toulouse

DWW 2W 1D 0L · 7 pts (2.33 ppg) · GF 6 GA 4 · xG 4.69–3.1 · xPts 5.27

  • W H Olympique Lyonnais 2–1 xG 1.35–1.76 FRA L1
  • W A Strasbourg 2–1 xG 1.29–0.45 FRA L1
  • D H Monaco 2–2 xG 2.05–0.89 FRA L1

Olympique Lyonnais

WLLWD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 9 · xG 9.22–5.38 · xPts 9.36

  • D A Fenerbahçe 1–1 xG 0.93–0.65 UEFA CL
  • W H Sparta Praha 3–0 xG 2.09–0.64 UEFA CL
  • L H Lens 0–4 xG 2.28–1.84 FRA L1
  • L A Toulouse 1–2 xG 1.76–1.35 FRA L1
  • W H Rennes 4–2 xG 2.16–0.9 FRA L1

All meetings · 39 matches since 2005

Toulouse 89 draws22 Olympique Lyonnais

Goals 40–68 · 2.77 per match · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Toulouse 22 draws6 Olympique Lyonnais

Goals 9–18 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Toulouse 21 draws2 Olympique Lyonnais

Goals 5–6 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Toulouse 0–2 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 2–1 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Olympique Lyonnais 1–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Olympique Lyonnais 0–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 1–2 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 2–3 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Olympique Lyonnais 3–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 1–2 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Olympique Lyonnais 1–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Olympique Lyonnais 3–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricToulouse all · 4Toulouse at home · 2Olympique Lyonnais all · 4Olympique Lyonnais away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.402

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

Olympique Lyonnais · 8 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.42

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.028
Early press (0-15, level)-0.128
Late push (76+, level)-0.353
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.342

Game state

When ahead+0.155
When level-0.128
When behind-0.052
10 min after conceding-0.145
10 min after scoring+0.427

Situations

At home+0.094
Away-0.134
4+ days rest-0.017

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.032
v mid-tier opponents-0.242
v bottom-tier opponents+0.112
As favourite+0.094
Evenly matched-0.163

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.008
Conceded when ahead-0.115
Conceded late (76+)-0.327

Congested vs rested -0.06 · Ahead vs level +0.27 · Behind vs level +0.07

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%0.51.01.751.791.52

Olympique Lyonnais

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-12 50%1.00.50.51.240.66
4-3-31 25%3.02.00.01.061.99
4-3-2-11 25%3.03.01.02.70.73

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 2.2d before kick-off · 54 snapshots · last 45m before kick-off · biggest step: home +3.9 pts at 13.8h

2.36Home 41% ▲ +9.5 ptsopened 3.053.46Draw 28% · +0.7 ptsopened 3.533.18Away 31% ▼ -10.2 ptsopened 2.37
2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.36 ▲ +9.53.46 · +0.73.18 ▼ -10.245m
bet3652.3 ▲ +8.73.4 · +0.93.1 ▼ -9.645m
Betfair2.3 ▲ +7.83.3 ▲ +1.13.0 ▼ -8.945m
BetVictor2.25 ▲ +8.63.4 · +0.83.1 ▼ -9.445m
Coral2.37 ▲ +7.83.4 ▲ +1.23.0 ▼ -9.045m
Ladbrokes2.37 ▲ +6.83.3 ▲ +1.62.9 ▼ -8.445m
Unibet2.28 ▲ +7.63.4 · -0.02.95 ▼ -7.645m
WilliamHill2.3 ▲ +7.33.3 · +0.92.9 ▼ -8.245m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.8h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.3Home 41% P 41%3.4Draw 28% P 28%3.1Away 31% P 31%

Double Chance

1.36Toulouse or Draw 34%1.3Toulouse or Lyon 36%1.53Draw or Lyon 30%

Draw No Bet

1.661 56%2.12 44%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55%2.05No 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 50%1.9Under 50% P 50%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 48%1.83Under 50% P 52%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 30–32.5% · 701 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home41%41%41%-0.1
Draw28%28%26%-1.9
Away31%31%33%+2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.550%51%51%-0.1

Guillaume Paradis

Career
17 matches · 2 seasons
Cards / match
3.94 (3.82 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
24.5 · 6.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.06
Cards to home side
51%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 17 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.824.06-0.5520
Fouls / match24.524.3+0.15
Fouls per card6.46.0+0.49 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.060.36-2.900
Time added8.96.7+1.6696
First card
30' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 25% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-05-17 30 170 66'5
2026-05-03 50 240 5'8
2026-04-19 41 300 41'12
2026-03-21 · Toulouse 50 190 5'9
2026-02-28 30 190 45'7
2026-02-06 20 210 7'10
2026-01-25 · Toulouse 50 320 15'9
2026-01-04 30 170 45'8
2025-11-30 20 180 48'8
2025-11-07 60 220 57'5