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Premier League · Matchweek 5

Momentum

BrentfordChelsea
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford
Capacity
17,250
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Keith Andrews · Xabi Alonso
Position
7 · 6
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Andy Madley

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
17.1° (feels 16.3°)
Wind
5.2
Humidity
56%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Arsenal 4400 817 12 WWWW
2 Manchester City 4400 826 12 WWWW
3 Leeds United 4220 734 8 WDDW
4 Hull City 4220 523 8 WWDD
5 Brighton & Hove Albion 4211 1358 7 WLDW
6 Chelsea 4211 1091 7 WWLD
7 Brentford 4130 743 6 WDDD
8 Liverpool 4130 642 6 DDWD
9 Everton 4130 532 6 WDDD
10 Ipswich Town 4202 710-3 6 WLLW
11 Nottingham Forest 4121 440 5 LDDW
12 Newcastle United 4121 78-1 5 DWDL
13 Manchester United 4112 770 4 LWDL
14 Sunderland 4112 35-2 4 LWDL
15 AFC Bournemouth 4031 67-1 3 LDDD
16 Crystal Palace 4103 611-5 3 LLWL
17 Tottenham Hotspur 4022 05-5 2 LLDD
18 Fulham 4013 47-3 1 LLLD
19 Aston Villa 4013 17-6 1 LLDL
20 Coventry City 4004 010-10 0 LLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • Relegation

Brentford

DWDDD 1W 4D 0L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 9.16–8.93 · xPts 6.55

  • D A AFC Bournemouth 2–2 xG 0.52–2.09 UK PL
  • D H Sunderland 1–1 xG 1.26–2.4 UK PL
  • D A Leeds United 1–1 xG 1.84–1.12 UK PL
  • W H Tottenham Hotspur 3–0 xG 4.16–0.52 UK PL
  • D A Liverpool 1–1 xG 1.38–2.81 UK PL

Chelsea

LWWLD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 11 GA 11 · xG 7.63–8.29 · xPts 6.25

  • D H Hull City 2–2 xG 1.07–1.35 UK PL
  • L A Arsenal 1–2 xG 0.47–2.26 UK PL
  • W H Brighton & Hove Albion 4–3 xG 3.37–1.36 UK PL
  • W A Fulham 3–2 xG 1.92–1.51 UK PL
  • L A Sunderland 1–2 xG 0.81–1.81 UK PL

full sample 10 meetings 2021–2026

Recurring referee: Jarred Gillett · 2 of these meetings

Last 10

Brentford 34 draws3 Chelsea

Goals 13–10 · Brentford hosting: 0W 4D 1L · Chelsea hosting: 2W 0D 3L

At Gtech Community Stadium: 5 meetings · Brentford 0 · draws 4 · Chelsea 1 · 1.8 goals per match · last away win Oct 2021

All-time since 2013: 13 meetings · Brentford 3 · draws 5 · Chelsea 5

  • Brentford haven't beaten Chelsea since Oct 2023
  • Chelsea unbeaten in the last 5 meetings

This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days

MetricFixtureLeagueΔn
Goals per match2.302.79-0.4910
Both teams score40%58%-18%10
Over 2.5 goals40%56%-16%10
Corners10.69.9+0.710
Cards4.34.2+0.18

2 goalless · 3 with 4+ goals · 0.60 first-half goals per match · red card in 1

How these games go · 10 with event data

BrentfordChelsea
Scored first3 of 105 of 10
Scored first and won23
Won from behind10

first goal on average in minute 41 · a side came back in 3 · goal after the 75th minute in 7 · penalty scored in 1

When the goals come · all goals, 8 meetings

0-15'0
16-30'1
31-45'5
46-60'6
61-75'2
76-90'9

5 equalisers · 1 penalty · 1 own goal · 1 header

Expected goals · last 4 with xG

Brentford 1.36 xGper match1.66 xG Chelsea

Deserved on xG: Brentford 0 · level 3 · Chelsea 1 — actual wins in those games 0 / 2

Against the market · 10 with closing odds

Favourite won 3 (30%), drew 4, upset 3 · market favoured Brentford 0×, Chelsea 10× · avg favourite 55%, avg price of the actual result 33%

Fixture specialists

  • 2 Cole Palmer Chelsea · in 2 games · last Jan 2026
  • 2 Nicolas Jackson Chelsea · in 2 games · last Dec 2024
  • 2 Yoane Wissa Brentford · in 2 games · last Mar 2024
  • 2 Bryan Mbeumo  Brentford · in 2 games · last Oct 2023
  • 2 Vitaly Janelt Brentford · last Apr 2022

Last meeting · 2026-01-17 · UK PL

Chelsea 2-0 Brentford · ref John Brooks

  • 26' João Pedro assist Enzo Fernández 1–0
  • 76' Cole Palmer (pen) 2–0

xG 1.58 – 1.46 · corners 12 · cards 5

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·

Match result

39.4%Brentford P 36%23.1%Draw P 26%37.5%Chelsea P 38%

Over / under 2.5

65.7%Over 2.5 P 64%34.3%Under 2.5 P 36%

Both teams to score

66.8%Yes33.2%No

Expected

Brentford goals
1.72 (0–3)
Chelsea goals
1.67 (0–3)
Corners
9.57 (6–14)
Cards
4.85 (2–8)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

40.0%Brentford25.8%Draw34.2%Chelsea

Over / under 2.5

57.3%Over 2.542.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

59.8%Yes40.2%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 13 matches since 2013

Brentford 35 draws5 Chelsea

Goals 15–20 · 2.69 per match · BTTS 38% · over 2.5 54%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Brentford 34 draws3 Chelsea

Goals 13–10 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Brentford 03 draws2 Chelsea

Goals 5–8 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Chelsea 2–0 Brentford UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Brentford 2–2 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Brentford 0–0 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Chelsea 2–1 Brentford UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Brentford 2–2 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Chelsea 0–2 Brentford UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Chelsea 0–2 Brentford UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Brentford 0–0 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Chelsea 1–4 Brentford UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Brentford 0–1 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
MetricBrentford all · 4Brentford at home · 2Chelsea all · 4Chelsea away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Brentford · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.034
Early press (0-15, level)+0.454
Late push (76+, level)-0.493

Game state

When ahead+0.104
When level-0.024
10 min after conceding-0.303
10 min after scoring+0.274

Situations

At home-0.112
Away+0.142
4+ days rest+0.034

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.112
As favourite-0.112
Evenly matched+0.142

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.174
Conceded when ahead-0.384
Conceded late (76+)+0.073

Ahead vs level +0.12 · Behind vs level +1.12

Chelsea · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.40

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.064
Early press (0-15, level)-0.214

Game state

When ahead+0.074
When level-0.074
When behind+0.172
10 min after conceding-0.404
10 min after scoring+0.324

Situations

At home-0.002
Away+0.122
4+ days rest+0.064

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.003
As favourite+0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.234
Conceded when ahead+0.354
Conceded late (76+)-0.274

Ahead vs level +0.14 · Behind vs level +0.24

Brentford

Current: unbeaten 6 · winless 3 · scoring 6 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%1.51.751.01.941.53

Chelsea

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 6 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-13 75%2.02.672.331.921.71
4-2-3-11 25%1.02.02.01.071.35

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 116 snapshots · last 5.0h before kick-off · biggest step: away -1.7 pts at 2.0d

2.67Home 36% ▲ +3.3 ptsopened 2.873.78Draw 26% ▲ +1.1 ptsopened 3.862.57Away 38% ▼ -4.4 ptsopened 2.25
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.67 ▲ +3.33.78 ▲ +1.12.57 ▼ -4.45.0h
bet3652.55 ▲ +5.13.75 · +0.22.5 ▼ -5.35.0h
Betfair2.63 ▲ +4.23.75 · +0.52.55 ▼ -4.75.0h
BetVictor2.6 ▲ +3.43.6 ▲ +1.62.55 ▼ -5.05.0h
Coral2.5 ▲ +4.33.75 · -0.42.5 ▼ -3.95.0h
Ladbrokes2.5 ▲ +4.23.75 · -0.22.5 ▼ -4.05.0h
Unibet2.55 ▲ +3.23.7 · +0.22.55 ▼ -3.45.0h
WilliamHill2.6 ▲ +3.23.5 ▲ +1.22.5 ▼ -4.35.0h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 5.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.55Home 37% P 36%3.75Draw 25% P 26%2.5Away 38% P 38%

Double Chance

1.53Brentford or Draw 30%1.25Brentford or Chelsea 37%1.44Draw or Chelsea 32%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.44Yes 65%2.62No 35%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.5Over 64% P 64%2.62Under 36% P 36%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42% P 44%1.61Under 58% P 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 37.5–40% · 153 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home36%36%35%-1.3
Draw26%26%30%+4.3
Away38%38%35%-3.0

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 61% · over 2.5 53%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.564%64%63%-0.4

Andy Madley

Career
313 matches · 16 seasons
Cards / match
3.42 (3.29 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
21.8 · 5.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Premier League (5-year window · 95 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.094.26-0.2431
Fouls / match22.721.6+0.83
Fouls per card6.25.1+1.71 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.170.25-1.1412
Time added8.38.4+0.0938
First card
36' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.21

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-12 70 270 43'10
2026-09-05 30 100 58'11
2026-08-28 30 180 33'6
2026-08-13 60 490 16'2
2026-07-14 30 250 17'2
2026-05-24 10 120 82'13
2026-05-12 80 340 13'11
2026-05-09 62 330 41'9
2026-04-25 40 200 19'11
2026-04-22 40 291 37'15