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Premier League · Matchweek 4

Momentum

SunderlandArsenal
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Capacity
48,707
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Régis Le Bris · Mikel Arteta
Position
14 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

John Brooks

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
16.3° (feels 16.1°)
Wind
5.2
Humidity
82%

Where to watch · 98

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Arsenal 4400 817 12 WWWW
2 Manchester City 4400 826 12 WWWW
3 Leeds United 4220 734 8 WDDW
4 Hull City 4220 523 8 WWDD
5 Brighton & Hove Albion 4211 1358 7 WLDW
6 Chelsea 4211 1091 7 WWLD
7 Brentford 4130 743 6 WDDD
8 Liverpool 4130 642 6 DDWD
9 Everton 4130 532 6 WDDD
10 Ipswich Town 4202 710-3 6 WLLW
11 Nottingham Forest 4121 440 5 LDDW
12 Newcastle United 4121 78-1 5 DWDL
13 Manchester United 4112 770 4 LWDL
14 Sunderland 4112 35-2 4 LWDL
15 AFC Bournemouth 4031 67-1 3 LDDD
16 Crystal Palace 4103 611-5 3 LLWL
17 Tottenham Hotspur 4022 05-5 2 LLDD
18 Fulham 4013 47-3 1 LLLD
19 Aston Villa 4013 17-6 1 LLDL
20 Coventry City 4004 010-10 0 LLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • Relegation

Sunderland

WWLWD 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 7.11–5.26 · xPts 7.97

  • D A Brentford 1–1 xG 2.4–1.26 UK PL
  • W H Fulham 1–0 xG 1.14–0.7 UK PL
  • L A Ipswich Town 1–2 xG 0.91–1.39 UK PL
  • W H Chelsea 2–1 xG 1.81–0.81 UK PL
  • W A Everton 3–1 xG 0.85–1.1 UK PL

Arsenal

DWWWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 2 · xG 9.62–3.56 · xPts 10.36

  • W A Napoli 1–0 xG 3.6–0.31 UEFA CL
  • W H Chelsea 2–1 xG 2.26–0.47 UK PL
  • W A Aston Villa 1–0 xG 1.25–0.43 UK PL
  • W H Coventry City 3–0 xG 2.08–0.19 UK PL
  • D A Paris Saint Germain 1–1 lost on pens None–None xG 0.43–2.17 UEFA CL

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

16.4%Sunderland P 14%25.5%Draw P 25%58.1%Arsenal P 61%

Over / under 2.5

40.3%Over 2.5 P 46%59.7%Under 2.5 P 54%

Both teams to score

40.7%Yes59.3%No

Expected

Sunderland goals
0.71 (0–2)
Arsenal goals
1.58 (0–3)
Corners
7.82 (4–12)
Cards
4.2 (2–7)

Earlier: day before — 16.4% / 25.5% / 58.1%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

18.4%Sunderland25.1%Draw56.6%Arsenal

Over / under 2.5

45.3%Over 2.554.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

46.2%Yes53.8%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2away0.5430.267
bttsno0.5220.331
ou_2_5under0.5160.325

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 33 matches since 2000

Sunderland 310 draws20 Arsenal

Goals 22–60 · 2.48 per match · BTTS 46% · over 2.5 48%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Sunderland 03 draws7 Arsenal

Goals 5–21 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Sunderland 01 draws4 Arsenal

Goals 3–13 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Sunderland 0–2 Arsenal UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Arsenal 3–0 Sunderland UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Sunderland 2–2 Arsenal UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Arsenal 2–0 Sunderland neutral UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Sunderland 1–4 Arsenal neutral UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal neutral UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland UK FA Cup · 3rd Round
  • L Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland neutral UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Arsenal 0–0 Sunderland neutral UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Sunderland 0–2 Arsenal UK PL · Regular Season
MetricSunderland all · 4Sunderland at home · 2Arsenal all · 4Arsenal away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Sunderland · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.00) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.43

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.005
Early press (0-15, level)-0.235
Late push (76+, level)+0.062
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.223

Game state

When ahead-0.022
When level+0.075
When behind-0.253
10 min after conceding-0.413
10 min after scoring+0.434

Situations

At home+0.133
Away-0.182
4+ days rest+0.005

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.074
Evenly matched-0.102
As underdog-0.072

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.125
Conceded when ahead-0.152
Conceded late (76+)-0.135

Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level -0.32

Arsenal · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.56) · stands out: v top-tier opponents +0.68

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.565
Early press (0-15, level)+0.435

Game state

When ahead+0.275
When level+0.625
10 min after scoring+0.555

Situations

At home+0.622
Away+0.543
3 days rest or fewer+0.632
4+ days rest+0.513

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.683
v mid-tier opponents+0.342
As favourite+0.565

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.355
Conceded when ahead-0.355
Conceded late (76+)-0.354

Congested vs rested +0.12 · Ahead vs level -0.36 · Behind vs level +1.76

Sunderland

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%1.00.751.251.561.37

Arsenal

Current: unbeaten 13 · wins 5 · scoring 14 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%3.02.00.251.930.72

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: draw +2.1 pts at 14.0h

6.98Home 14% · -0.2 ptsopened 6.883.9Draw 25% ▲ +2.0 ptsopened 4.241.57Away 61% ▼ -1.9 ptsopened 1.52
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%60%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle6.98 · -0.23.9 ▲ +2.01.57 ▼ -1.910m
bet3656.0 ▲ +2.43.6 ▲ +2.91.6 ▼ -5.310m
Betfair6.5 ▲ +1.43.7 ▲ +3.61.6 ▼ -5.010m
BetVictor6.0 ▲ +2.73.75 ▲ +2.31.62 ▼ -5.010m
Coral5.75 ▲ +2.23.9 ▲ +1.11.6 ▼ -3.410m
Ladbrokes5.75 ▲ +2.23.9 ▲ +1.11.6 ▼ -3.410m
Unibet7.0 · +0.14.2 · +0.41.5 · -0.510m
WilliamHill5.8 ▲ +1.73.6 ▲ +2.51.6 ▼ -4.110m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

6.0Home 16% P 14%3.6Draw 26% P 25%1.6Away 58% P 61%

Double Chance

2.3Sunderland or Draw 20%1.25Sunderland or Arsenal 38%1.12Draw or Arsenal 42%

Draw No Bet

4.51 21%1.182 79%

Both Teams To Score

2.05Yes 45%1.7No 55%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 46%1.72Under 55% P 54%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.756 - 8 32%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.8Over 51% P 57%1.9Under 49% P 43%
4.52.2Over 42% P 36%1.61Under 58% P 64%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 10–15% · away 60–65% · 334 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home14%14%14%+0.1
Draw25%23%22%-0.9
Away61%63%64%+0.8

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 51%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

John Brooks

Career
221 matches · 14 seasons
Cards / match
4.22 (4.09 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
22.9 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.27
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Premier League (5-year window · 77 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.814.26+1.1185
Fouls / match21.721.6+0.30
Fouls per card4.65.1-1.32 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.330.25+0.7685
Time added8.18.4-0.0823
First card
30' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
52% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.12

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-06 60 180 13'8
2026-08-27 70 251 37'7
2026-08-24 50 190 5'6
2026-07-30 71 331 35'5
2026-05-17 · Sunderland 30 230 25'9
2026-05-09 30 200 24'8
2026-05-02 40 290 39'6
2026-04-11 101 191 66'9
2026-02-12 · Arsenal 50 230 4'6
2026-02-01 30 151 20'12