Rating 7.83 (100th pct) · G+A 12 + 23 (45% of team goals) · 90% of minutes
Premier League · Matchweek 4
Momentum
– MUNMCI –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Manchester United | at home | Stat | league | away | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60.5 #3 | – | Ball possession | 50.1 | – | 65.2 #2 |
| 21.0 #1 | – | Shots total | 13.4 | – | 13.0 #11 |
| 5.5 #3 | – | Shots on target | 4.4 | – | 5.2 #5 |
| 5.8 #5 | – | Corners | 4.6 | – | 6.2 #3 |
| 11.0 #11 | – | Fouls | 11.6 | – | 9.8 #17 |
| 2.0 #8 | – | Offsides | 1.9 | – | 2.0 #8 |
| 14.2 #14 | – | Tackles | 15.5 | – | 13.8 #16 |
| 105.8 #4 | – | Attacks | 96.3 | – | 126.0 #1 |
| 65.8 #1 | – | Dangerous attacks | 47.6 | – | 55.0 #6 |
| 561.0 #4 | – | Passes | 442.3 | – | 667.0 #1 |
| 1.5 #13 | – | Yellowcards | 1.9 | – | 1.5 #13 |
| – | – | Redcards | 0.2 | – | 0.2 #1 |
| 1.0 #8 | – | Assists | 1.1 | – | 1.8 #2 |
| – #8 | – | Btts | 50.8 | – | – #8 |
| – #15 | – | Cleansheet | 29.5 | – | – #3 |
| – #10 | – | Draw | 34.0 | – | – #16 |
| 2.1 #2 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 1.9 #6 |
| -0.3 #13 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.1 | – | 0.1 #8 |
| – #4 | – | Failed to score | 29.8 | – | – #14 |
| 1.8 #6 | 2.5 | Goals | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 #2 |
| 1.8 #6 | 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 #18 |
| 0.5 #1 | – | Injury time goals | 0.3 | – | 0.2 #6 |
| 8.5 #11 | – | Interceptions | 8.4 | – | 8.0 #13 |
| – #5 | – | Lost | 33.2 | – | – #14 |
| 0.2 #1 | – | Penalties scored | 0.2 | – | – |
| 6.9 #9 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 7.1 #1 |
| 7.5 #1 | – | Shots blocked | 3.9 | – | 3.5 #12 |
| 11.5 #3 | – | Shots insidebox | 8.7 | – | 10.0 #6 |
| 8.0 #2 | – | Shots off target | 5.2 | – | 4.2 #16 |
| 9.5 #1 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.8 | – | 3.0 #18 |
| – #9 | – | Win | 32.8 | – | – #1 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 39 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.79 (home 1.41 · away 1.38)
- Home / draw / away
- 31% · 36% · 33%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 51% · 51%
- Cards / match
- 4.03 (reds 0.1)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Manchester United · Last 365 days
Rating 7.17 (96th pct) · G+A 11 + 3 (18% of team goals) · 78% of minutes
Team 1.66 ppg with (32) · 2.62 without (8)
Rating 6.99 (72th pct) · G+A 12 + 4 (21% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Team 2.09 ppg with (32) · 0.88 without (8)
Manchester City · Last 365 days
Rating 7.29 (99th pct) · G+A 38 + 9 (41% of team goals) · 82% of minutes
Team 2.17 ppg with (46) · 2.25 without (8)
Rating 7.33 (97th pct) · G+A 8 + 16 (21% of team goals) · 57% of minutes
Team 2.37 ppg with (30) · 1.96 without (24)
Rating 7.14 (90th pct) · G+A 8 + 7 (13% of team goals) · 59% of minutes
Team 2.16 ppg with (32) · 2.23 without (22)
Absences
Manchester United
- injury Carlos Baleba midfielder · Ankle Injury · 7 missed · until 2026-09-17
Manchester City
- injury Jérémy Doku #4 key player attacker · Calf Injury · 5 missed
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 4
Venue
- Stadium
- Old Trafford, Manchester
- Capacity
- 74,879
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 74,161
Teams
- Coaches
- Michael Carrick · Enzo Maresca
- Position
- 13 · 2
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Michael Oliver
Weather
- Conditions
- broken clouds
- Temperature
- 20.3° (feels 20.4°)
- Wind
- 1.9
- Humidity
- 76%
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2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Manchester City |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 12 | WWWW |
| 3 |  Brentford |
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 9 | WDDDW |
| 4 |  Leeds United |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 8 | WDDW |
| 5 |  Hull City |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | WWDD |
| 6 |  Brighton & Hove Albion |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 7 | WLDW |
| 7 |  Chelsea |
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 | WWLDL |
| 8 |  Liverpool |
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | DDWD |
| 9 |  Everton |
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | WDDD |
| 10 |  Ipswich Town |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 | WLLW |
| 11 |  Nottingham Forest |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | LDDW |
| 12 |  Newcastle United |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 | DWDL |
| 13 |  Manchester United |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 | LWDL |
| 14 |  Sunderland |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | LWDL |
| 15 |  AFC Bournemouth |
4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | LDDD |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 | LLWL |
| 17 |  Tottenham Hotspur |
4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 | LLDD |
| 18 |  Fulham |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 | LLLD |
| 19 |  Aston Villa |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 | LLDL |
| 20 |  Coventry City |
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brentford |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 7 | WDDDW |
| 2 | Arsenal |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WWWW |
| 3 | Manchester City |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WWWW |
| 4 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | WLDW |
| 5 | Leeds United |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | WDDW |
| 6 | Everton |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | WDDD |
| 7 | Hull City |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | WWDD |
| 8 | Chelsea |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | WWLDL |
| 9 | Manchester United |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | LWDL |
| 10 | Ipswich Town |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 | WLLW |
| 11 | Sunderland |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LWDL |
| 12 | Newcastle United |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | DWDL |
| 13 | AFC Bournemouth |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | LDDD |
| 14 | Liverpool |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | DDWD |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | LDDW |
| 16 | Tottenham Hotspur |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | LLDD |
| 17 | Fulham |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LLLD |
| 18 | Aston Villa |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | LLDL |
| 19 | Crystal Palace |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LLWL |
| 20 | Coventry City |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 | LLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WWWW |
| 3 | Liverpool |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DDWD |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | LDDW |
| 5 | Hull City |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | WWDD |
| 6 | Leeds United |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | WDDW |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | WLDW |
| 8 | Crystal Palace |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | LLWL |
| 9 | Newcastle United |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | DWDL |
| 10 | Ipswich Town |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 | WLLW |
| 11 | Chelsea |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 | WWLDL |
| 12 | Brentford |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | WDDDW |
| 13 | Everton |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | WDDD |
| 14 | AFC Bournemouth |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 | LDDD |
| 15 | Sunderland |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | LWDL |
| 16 | Fulham |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | LLLD |
| 17 | Manchester United |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | LWDL |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 | LLDD |
| 19 | Aston Villa |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 | LLDL |
| 20 | Coventry City |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | LLLL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- Relegation
Manchester United
WLWDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 14 GA 6 · xG 12.17–4.92 · xPts 10.3
- W
H
Sabah
4–0
xG 3.33–0.74
UEFA CL - D
A
Everton
2–2
xG 0.84–1.07
UK PL
- W
H
Ipswich Town
5–2
xG 4.33–0.88
UK PL
- L
A
Hull City
0–2
xG 2.18–0.99
UK PL
- W
A
Brighton & Hove Albion
3–0
xG 1.49–1.25
UK PL
WWLWDW 4W 1D 1L · 13 pts (2.17 ppg) · GF 17 GA 8 · xG 16.04–6.59 · xPts 12.72
- W
H
Sabah
4–0
xG 3.33–0.74
UEFA CL
- D
A
Everton
2–2
xG 0.84–1.07
UK PL
- W
H
Ipswich Town
5–2
xG 4.33–0.88
UK PL
- L
A
Hull City
0–2
xG 2.18–0.99
UK PL
- W
A
Brighton & Hove Albion
3–0
xG 1.49–1.25
UK PL
- W
H
Nottingham Forest
3–2
xG 3.87–1.67
UK PL
Manchester City
LWWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 10 GA 4 · xG 9.53–4.21 · xPts 10.38
- W
A
Porto
2–0
xG 2.27–0.3
UEFA CL - W
H
Coventry City
1–0
xG 1.82–0.75
UK PL
- W
A
Crystal Palace
4–1
xG 1.99–0.62
UK PL
- W
H
AFC Bournemouth
2–1
xG 2.13–0.57
UK PL
- L
H
Aston Villa
1–2
xG 1.32–1.97
UK PL
WDLWWWW 5W 1D 1L · 16 pts (2.29 ppg) · GF 12 GA 5 · xG 12.41–7.03 · xPts 13.23
- W
A
Porto
2–0
xG 2.27–0.3
UEFA CL
- W
H
Coventry City
1–0
xG 1.82–0.75
UK PL
- W
A
Crystal Palace
4–1
xG 1.99–0.62
UK PL
- W
H
AFC Bournemouth
2–1
xG 2.13–0.57
UK PL
- L
H
Aston Villa
1–2
xG 1.32–1.97
UK PL
- D
A
AFC Bournemouth
1–1
xG 1.69–2.03
UK PL
- W
A
Chelsea
1–0
xG 1.19–0.79
UK FA Cup
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·
Match result
26.9%Manchester United P 32%23.0%Draw P 25%50.1%Manchester City P 42%
Over / under 2.5
61.6%Over 2.5 P 64%38.4%Under 2.5 P 36%
Both teams to score
62.1%Yes37.9%No
Expected
- Manchester United goals
- 1.32 (0–3)
- Manchester City goals
- 1.87 (0–4)
- Corners
- 9.04 (5–13)
- Cards
- 4.12 (1–7)
Earlier: day before — 26.9% / 23.0% / 50.1%
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
33.2%Manchester United23.3%Draw43.5%Manchester City
Over / under 2.5
61.1%Over 2.539.0%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
60.3%Yes39.7%No
Scored
| Market | Observed | Log loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2 | away | 0.691 | 0.374 |
| btts | no | 0.97 | 0.771 |
| ou_2_5 | under | 0.958 | 0.76 |
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 54 matches since 2000
Goals 64–83 · 2.72 per match · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 52%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 10–15 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 70%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 4–5 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 40%
Recent meetings
- L Manchester United 0–1 Manchester City UK PL · Regular Season
- W Manchester United 2–0 Manchester City UK PL · Regular Season
- L Manchester City 3–0 Manchester United UK PL · Regular Season
- D Manchester United 0–0 Manchester City UK PL · Regular Season
- W Manchester City 1–2 Manchester United UK PL · Regular Season
- W Manchester City 1–2 Manchester United neutral UK FA Cup · Final
- L Manchester City 3–1 Manchester United UK PL · Regular Season
- L Manchester United 0–3 Manchester City UK PL · Regular Season
- L Manchester City 2–1 Manchester United UK FA Cup · Final
- W Manchester United 2–1 Manchester City UK PL · Regular Season
| Metric | Manchester United all · 4 | Manchester United at home · 2 | Manchester City all · 4 | Manchester City away · 2 |
|---|
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Manchester United · 5 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.34) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.83
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.345
Early press (0-15, level)+0.515
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.042
Game state
When ahead+0.473
When level+0.305
When behind+0.313
10 min after conceding-0.054
10 min after scoring+0.833
Situations
At home+0.313
Away+0.372
4+ days rest+0.514
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.152
v mid-tier opponents+0.793
As favourite+0.514
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead-0.363
Conceded late (76+)+0.023
Congested vs rested -0.74 · Ahead vs level +0.17 · Behind vs level +0.01
Manchester City · 5 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.41) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.62
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.415
Early press (0-15, level)+0.015
Game state
When ahead+0.405
When level+0.535
10 min after conceding-0.042
10 min after scoring+0.625
Situations
At home+0.222
Away+0.553
4+ days rest+0.314
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.453
v mid-tier opponents+0.362
As favourite+0.454
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.385
Conceded when ahead-0.435
Conceded late (76+)-0.525
Congested vs rested +0.50 · Ahead vs level -0.13 · Behind vs level -0.42
Manchester United
Current: winless 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 4 100% | 1.0 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 0.93 |
Manchester City
Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 18 · clean sheets 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 4 100% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.68 | 0.69 |
| Metric | Manchester United all · 10 | Manchester United at home · 10 | Manchester City all · 10 | Manchester City away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.10 |
| W / D / L | 6 / 2 / 2 | 8 / 0 / 2 | 8 / 1 / 1 | 6 / 3 / 1 |
| Goals for / match | 2.20 | 2.50 | 1.90 | 1.70 |
| Goals against / match | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | 60% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 50% | 40% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 2.21 | 2.40 | 1.80 | 1.85 |
| xG against / match | 1.13 | 1.15 | 0.91 | 1.09 |
| xG difference | 1.08 | 1.25 | 0.89 | 0.76 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.01 | 0.10 | 0.10 | -0.15 |
| xPts / match | 1.87 | 2.01 | 1.91 | 1.82 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.13 | 0.39 | 0.59 | 0.28 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 60% | 60% | 80% | 80% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.67 | 3.00 | 2.63 | 2.50 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 50% | 67% | 67% |
| Leads held | 86% | 100% | 89% | 75% |
| Minutes leading | 46% | 48% | 38% | 35% |
| Minutes level | 41% | 32% | 47% | 49% |
| Minutes trailing | 13% | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| First goal (min) | 24 | 34 | 51 | 46 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 54 | 44 | 42 | 44 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 50% | 60% | 74% | 76% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 75% | 67% | 60% | 44% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| Late goals against | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 53% | 53% | 62% | 63% |
| Shots | 18.5 | 20.7 | 15.1 | 16.6 |
| On target | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 6.1 |
| Shot conversion | 12% | 12% | 13% | 10% |
| Shots inside box | 63% | 62% | 69% | 69% |
| Big chances created | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.4 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 8.5 |
| xG from set plays | 19% | 24% | 18% | 19% |
| Goals from headers | 14% | 16% | 21% | 18% |
| Pressure index | 15.6 | 17.9 | 18.4 | 18.0 |
| Dominant minutes | 56.8 | 61.7 | 65.9 | 66.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 86% | 86% | 89% | 89% |
| Fouls | 10.5 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 10.5 |
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.70 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Manchester United
0–15'40
16–30'12
31–45'61
46–60'44
61–75'30
76–90'45
Manchester City
0–15'00
16–30'31
31–45'21
46–60'52
61–75'21
76–90'70
Manchester United
Current: winless 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 10 100% | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.21 | 1.13 |
Manchester City
Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 18 · clean sheets 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 60% | 3.0 | 2.17 | 0.33 | 2.05 | 0.57 |
| 4-2-2-2 | 3 30% | 2.0 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.34 | 1.23 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.69 | 2.03 |
| Metric | Manchester United all · 40 | Manchester United at home · 21 | Manchester City all · 54 | Manchester City away · 27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 40 | 21 | 54 | 27 |
| Points per game | 1.85 | 2.14 | 2.19 | 1.93 |
| W / D / L | 21 / 11 / 8 | 14 / 3 / 4 | 36 / 10 / 8 | 15 / 7 / 5 |
| Goals for / match | 1.93 | 2.19 | 2.13 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.30 | 1.24 | 0.93 | 1.11 |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 24% | 41% | 37% |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | 9% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 67% | 52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 62% | 61% | 52% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.84 | 2.10 | 1.91 | 1.78 |
| xG against / match | 1.29 | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.27 |
| xG difference | 0.55 | 0.96 | 0.75 | 0.51 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.22 | -0.11 |
| xPts / match | 1.66 | 1.90 | 1.84 | 1.68 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.19 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 60% | 71% | 74% | 63% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.42 | 2.60 | 2.52 | 2.41 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.23 | 1.11 |
| Came back from behind | 56% | 43% | 47% | 50% |
| Leads held | 72% | 82% | 80% | 75% |
| Minutes leading | 37% | 47% | 46% | 38% |
| Minutes level | 44% | 35% | 43% | 47% |
| Minutes trailing | 19% | 18% | 11% | 15% |
| First goal (min) | 39 | 34 | 34 | 40 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 49 | 50 | 46 | 45 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 58% | 54% | 50% | 56% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 65% | 69% | 62% | 60% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.45 | 0.52 | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| Late goals against | 0.45 | 0.43 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 53% | 52% | 61% | 61% |
| Shots | 16.3 | 18.1 | 15.9 | 14.6 |
| On target | 5.9 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 5.4 |
| Shot conversion | 12% | 12% | 13% | 11% |
| Shots inside box | 64% | 67% | 72% | 73% |
| Big chances created | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| xG from set plays | 27% | 24% | 23% | 23% |
| Goals from headers | 22% | 20% | 14% | 13% |
| Pressure index | 17.2 | 19.1 | 22.8 | 18.8 |
| Dominant minutes | 55.2 | 58.9 | 66.2 | 62.7 |
| Pass accuracy | 83% | 84% | 89% | 89% |
| Fouls | 10.5 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 10.8 |
| Cards | 1.95 | 2.10 | 1.80 | 2.22 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Manchester United
0–15'85
16–30'76
31–45'177
46–60'1310
61–75'146
76–90'1818
Manchester City
0–15'130
16–30'1614
31–45'295
46–60'1910
61–75'1511
76–90'2310
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Manchester United · 40 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.22) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.47
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.2240
Early press (0-15, level)+0.2640
Late push (76+, level)+0.3216
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.2012
Game state
When ahead+0.0529
When level+0.2640
When behind+0.4618
10 min after conceding-0.0731
10 min after scoring+0.4736
Situations
With ten men+0.093
Against ten men-0.176
At home+0.2121
Away+0.2419
3 days rest or fewer+0.384
4+ days rest+0.2036
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.1024
v mid-tier opponents+0.4411
As favourite+0.4125
Evenly matched-0.199
As underdog+0.106
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.0140
Conceded when ahead+0.0929
Conceded late (76+)-0.0537
Congested vs rested +0.17 · Ahead vs level -0.20 · Behind vs level +0.20
Manchester City · 54 matches
Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.63) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.81
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.6354
Early press (0-15, level)+0.6254
Late push (76+, level)+0.7616
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.2412
Game state
When ahead+0.6945
When level+0.6454
When behind+0.3415
10 min after conceding+0.1131
10 min after scoring+0.8149
Situations
With ten men+0.473
At home+0.7227
Away+0.5427
3 days rest or fewer+0.6819
4+ days rest+0.6035
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.5734
v mid-tier opponents+0.7310
v bottom-tier opponents+0.912
As favourite+0.6849
Evenly matched+0.364
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.2954
Conceded when ahead-0.3545
Conceded late (76+)-0.3046
Congested vs rested +0.08 · Ahead vs level +0.05 · Behind vs level -0.29
Manchester United
Current: winless 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 26 65% | 1.96 | 1.88 | 1.15 | 1.8 | 1.32 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 14 35% | 1.64 | 2.0 | 1.57 | 1.93 | 1.24 |
Manchester City
Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 18 · clean sheets 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 15 28% | 2.67 | 2.27 | 0.6 | 2.15 | 1.01 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 14 26% | 1.86 | 2.29 | 0.86 | 1.58 | 1.25 |
| 4-3-2-1 | 9 17% | 2.44 | 2.22 | 0.78 | 2.09 | 1.09 |
| 4-1-3-2 | 8 15% | 1.88 | 1.63 | 1.25 | 2.07 | 1.35 |
| 4-3-3 | 5 9% | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.92 | 1.16 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home +1.4 pts at 10m · late move: home +1.5 pts inside the final hour
3.01Home 32% ▲ +1.6 ptsopened 3.153.82Draw 25% · +0.4 ptsopened 3.862.3Away 42% ▼ -1.9 ptsopened 2.19
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.01 ▲ +1.6 | 3.82 · +0.4 | 2.3 ▼ -1.9 | 10m |
| bet365 | 3.0 ▲ +1.6 | 3.75 · -0.5 | 2.2 ▼ -1.1 | 10m |
| Betfair | 3.1 · +0.5 | 3.7 · +0.8 | 2.2 ▼ -1.3 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 3.0 · +0.5 | 3.7 · +0.8 | 2.2 ▼ -1.3 | 10m |
| Coral | 2.87 ▲ +2.3 | 3.75 · +0.4 | 2.25 ▼ -2.7 | 10m |
| Ladbrokes | 2.87 ▲ +2.3 | 3.75 · +0.4 | 2.25 ▼ -2.7 | 10m |
| Unibet | 3.1 · -0.3 | 4.0 · +0.1 | 2.1 · +0.2 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 2.9 · +0.7 | 3.6 · +0.8 | 2.15 ▼ -1.5 | 10m |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: no +2.0 pts at 40m · late move: no +2.0 pts inside the final hour
1.5Yes 62% ▼ -2.0 ptsopened 1.442.5No 38% ▲ +2.0 ptsopened 2.62
Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.5 ▼ -2.0 | 2.5 ▲ +2.0 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.4 · -0.6 | 2.8 · +0.6 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.36 ▲ +2.0 | 2.8 ▼ -2.0 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.43 · +0.2 | 2.65 · -0.2 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 1.44 · +0.0 | 2.6 · +0.0 | 10m |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: over -1.4 pts at 10.5h · late move: over +2.9 pts inside the final hour
1.5Over 64% ▲ +1.9 ptsopened 1.542.69Under 36% ▼ -1.9 ptsopened 2.55
Over Under consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.5 ▲ +1.9 | 2.69 ▼ -1.9 | 10m |
| bet365 | 1.53 · +0.0 | 2.5 · +0.0 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.5 · -0.9 | 2.6 · +0.9 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.48 ▲ +1.0 | 2.43 ▼ -1.0 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.47 ▲ +1.4 | 2.65 ▼ -1.4 | 10m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
3.0Home 32% P 32%3.75Draw 25% P 25%2.2Away 43% P 42%
Double Chance
1.66Man Utd or Draw 28%1.25Man Utd or Man City 37%1.36Draw or Man City 34%
Draw No Bet
2.251 41%1.572 59%
Both Teams To Score
1.5Yes 62%2.5No 38%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.53Over 62% P 64%2.5Under 38% P 36%
Total Corners
11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%
Number of Cards
3.51.61Over 58% P 65%2.2Under 42% P 35%
4.52.1Over 44% P 45%1.66Under 56% P 55%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 40–42.5% · 560 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 32% | 31% | 31% | -0.2 |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 24% | -4.2 |
| Away | 42% | 41% | 46% | +4.4 |
In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 54%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 64% | 63% | -0.4 |
Michael Oliver
- Career
- 622 matches · 18 seasons
- Cards / match
- 3.53 (3.38 yellow · 0.08 red)
- Fouls / match
- 20.9 · 4.9 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.29
- Cards to home side
- 46%
Style in Premier League (5-year window · 134 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 3.81 | 4.26 | -0.78 | 15 |
| Fouls / match | 22.0 | 21.6 | +0.45 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.9 | 5.1 | +1.03 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.22 | 0.25 | -0.47 | 38 |
| Time added | 8.1 | 8.4 | -0.08 | 23 |
- First card
- 41' on average
- Card timing
- 12% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 46% (league 46%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.11
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 39' | 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 39' | 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 55' | 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3' | 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 34' | 19 |
| 2026-08-11 | 5 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 43' | 4 |
| 2026-05-24 | 5 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 13' | 13 |
| 2026-05-17 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 90' | 10 |
| 2026-05-04 · Manchester City | 5 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 45' | 8 |
| 2026-04-25 | 4 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 46' | 5 |