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Premier League · Matchweek 4

Momentum

CVCBHA
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
Capacity
32,609
Surface
grass
Attendance
31,492

Teams

Coaches
Frank Lampard · Fabian Hürzeler
Position
20 · 12
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Tony Harrington

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
22.2° (feels 22.5°)
Wind
3.8
Humidity
79%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Arsenal 4400 817 12 WWWW
2 Manchester City 4400 826 12 WWWW
3 Leeds United 4220 734 8 WDDW
4 Hull City 4220 523 8 WWDD
5 Brighton & Hove Albion 4211 1358 7 WLDW
6 Chelsea 4211 1091 7 WWLD
7 Brentford 4130 743 6 WDDD
8 Liverpool 4130 642 6 DDWD
9 Everton 4130 532 6 WDDD
10 Ipswich Town 4202 710-3 6 WLLW
11 Nottingham Forest 4121 440 5 LDDW
12 Newcastle United 4121 78-1 5 DWDL
13 Manchester United 4112 770 4 LWDL
14 Sunderland 4112 35-2 4 LWDL
15 AFC Bournemouth 4031 67-1 3 LDDD
16 Crystal Palace 4103 611-5 3 LLWL
17 Tottenham Hotspur 4022 05-5 2 LLDD
18 Fulham 4013 47-3 1 LLLD
19 Aston Villa 4013 17-6 1 LLDL
20 Coventry City 4004 010-10 0 LLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • Relegation

Coventry City

LLL 0W 0D 3L · 0 pts (0.0 ppg) · GF 0 GA 5 · xG 2.12–4.45 · xPts 2.75

  • L A Manchester City 0–1 xG 0.75–1.82 UK PL
  • L H Hull City 0–1 xG 1.18–0.55 UK PL
  • L A Arsenal 0–3 xG 0.19–2.08 UK PL

Brighton & Hove Albion

DWWLD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 12 GA 5 · xG 11.39–6.9 · xPts 9.64

  • D H Leeds United 1–1 xG 2.36–2.02 UK PL
  • L A Chelsea 3–4 xG 1.36–3.37 UK PL
  • W H Tromsø 4–0 xG 2.58–0.38 UEFA ECL
  • W H Aston Villa 4–0 xG 3.19–0.33 UK PL
  • D A Tromsø 0–0 xG 1.9–0.79 UEFA ECL

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

27.3%Coventry City P 24%23.5%Draw P 25%49.2%Brighton & Hove Albion P 51%

Over / under 2.5

59.5%Over 2.5 P 57%40.5%Under 2.5 P 43%

Both teams to score

60.6%Yes39.4%No

Expected

Coventry City goals
1.29 (0–3)
Brighton & Hove Albion goals
1.8 (0–4)
Corners
9.87 (6–14)
Cards
4.3 (2–7)

Earlier: day before — 27.3% / 23.5% / 49.2%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

41.2%Coventry City23.9%Draw34.9%Brighton & Hove Albion

Over / under 2.5

57.4%Over 2.542.6%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.9%Yes42.1%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2away0.710.388
bttsno0.9310.734
ou_2_5over0.5190.328

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 7 matches since 2005

Coventry City 31 draws3 Brighton & Hove Albion

Goals 9–12 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 43% · over 2.5 57%

Last 10 · 7 matches

Coventry City 31 draws3 Brighton & Hove Albion

Goals 9–12 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 43% · over 2.5 57%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Coventry City 20 draws3 Brighton & Hove Albion

Goals 6–10 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Coventry City 0–5 Brighton & Hove Albion UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Brighton & Hove Albion 3–1 Coventry City neutral UK FA Cup · 5th Round
  • W Coventry City 2–0 Brighton & Hove Albion UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Brighton & Hove Albion 2–1 Coventry City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Coventry City 2–0 Brighton & Hove Albion UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Brighton & Hove Albion 0–1 Coventry City neutral UK FA Cup · 3rd Round
  • D Brighton & Hove Albion 2–2 Coventry City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricCoventry City all · 4Coventry City at home · 2Brighton & Hove Albion all · 4Brighton & Hove Albion away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Coventry City · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.10) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.28

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.104
Early press (0-15, level)-0.284
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.242

Game state

When level+0.024
When behind-0.224
10 min after conceding-0.264

Situations

At home+0.102
Away-0.342
4+ days rest-0.104

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.163
As underdog-0.163

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.074
Conceded late (76+)-0.462

Behind vs level -0.24

Brighton & Hove Albion · 6 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.95

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.596
Early press (0-15, level)+0.676
Late push (76+, level)+0.942

Game state

When ahead-0.093
When level+0.956
When behind+0.432
10 min after conceding-0.042
10 min after scoring+0.515

Situations

At home+0.463
Away+0.673
3 days rest or fewer+0.232
4+ days rest+0.744

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.232
As favourite+0.744

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.226
Conceded when ahead-0.073
Conceded late (76+)-0.403

Congested vs rested -0.51 · Ahead vs level -1.04 · Behind vs level -0.52

Coventry City

Current: winless 4 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-12 50%0.00.03.01.112.16
4-1-4-11 25%0.00.03.00.192.08
4-2-3-11 25%0.00.01.01.180.55

Brighton & Hove Albion

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%1.753.251.252.351.8

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away +1.4 pts at 4.0h

4.02Home 24% · +0.6 ptsopened 4.093.86Draw 25% · -0.2 ptsopened 3.791.92Away 51% · -0.4 ptsopened 1.89
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 30%40%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 7 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle4.02 · +0.63.86 · -0.21.92 · -0.410m
bet3653.75 ▲ +3.54.0 ▼ -1.11.9 ▼ -2.510m
Betfair3.9 ▲ +1.33.9 ▼ -1.31.91 · -0.110m
BetVictor3.75 ▲ +2.03.8 · -0.21.9 ▼ -1.810m
Coral3.7 ▲ +2.23.75 · -0.81.95 ▼ -1.310m
Unibet4.1 · -0.03.65 · +1.01.87 · -0.910m
WilliamHill3.75 ▲ +1.73.5 · +0.91.91 ▼ -2.610m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.75Home 26% P 24%4.0Draw 24% P 25%1.9Away 50% P 51%

Double Chance

1.9Coventry or Draw 25%1.22Coventry or Brighton 38%1.25Draw or Brighton 37%

Draw No Bet

2.751 34%1.42 66%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 57%2.2Under 43% P 43%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54% P 54%2.0Under 46% P 46%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 22.5–25% · away 50–52.5% · 348 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home24%24%27%+3.4
Draw25%25%29%+3.7
Away51%51%44%-7.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 54%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.557%56%56%-0.2

Tony Harrington

Career
272 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
3.38 (3.26 yellow · 0.07 red)
Fouls / match
22.7 · 6.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.27
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Premier League (5-year window · 48 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.884.26-0.6419
Fouls / match21.921.6+0.37
Fouls per card5.95.1+1.03 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.230.25-0.4042
Time added9.18.4+0.7788
First card
33' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.2

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-01 20 190 39'5
2026-08-30 40 180 30'6
2026-08-22 40 321 34'9
2026-01-18 30 280 23'7
2026-01-11 30 251 45'6
2026-01-06 30 241 61'8
2026-01-01 50 170 19'10
2025-12-28 10 160 61'8
2025-12-03 10 160 65'9
2025-11-24 21 210 13'8