Rating 6.93 (56th pct) · G+A 12 + 9 (22% of team goals) · 62% of minutes
Team 1.79 ppg with (39) · 2.17 without (18)
Premier League · Matchweek 4
Momentum
– Aston VillaNFO –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
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Season context
| Aston Villa | at home | Stat | league | away | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.5 #9 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 43.8 #15 |
| 8.2 #20 | – | Shots total | 13.5 | – | 14.5 #9 |
| 1.5 #20 | – | Shots on target | 4.4 | – | 3.5 #15 |
| 3.5 #16 | – | Corners | 4.5 | – | 2.8 #18 |
| 11.0 #11 | – | Fouls | 11.7 | – | 15.8 #1 |
| 1.0 #16 | – | Offsides | 1.9 | – | 2.2 #5 |
| 15.8 #8 | – | Tackles | 15.4 | – | 20.5 #2 |
| 91.5 #12 | – | Attacks | 96.3 | – | 73.2 #19 |
| 38.2 #15 | – | Dangerous attacks | 47.7 | – | 40.5 #12 |
| 424.0 #8 | – | Passes | 441.4 | – | 342.2 #19 |
| 2.0 #9 | – | Yellowcards | 1.9 | – | 2.8 #3 |
| 0.2 #1 | – | Redcards | 0.2 | – | – |
| 0.2 #17 | – | Assists | 1.1 | – | 0.8 #12 |
| – #16 | – | Btts | 52.5 | – | – #8 |
| – #8 | – | Cleansheet | 28.8 | – | – #8 |
| – #10 | – | Draw | 35.0 | – | – #5 |
| 0.8 #20 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 1.6 #11 |
| -0.5 #15 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.1 | – | -0.6 #16 |
| – #3 | – | Failed to score | 28.8 | – | – #4 |
| 0.2 #18 | 0.5 | Goals | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 #15 |
| 1.8 #6 | 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 #13 |
| 5.5 #18 | – | Interceptions | 8.4 | – | 5.2 #19 |
| – #2 | – | Lost | 32.5 | – | – #9 |
| – | – | Penalties scored | 0.2 | – | 0.2 #1 |
| 6.5 #19 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.9 #6 |
| 2.0 #16 | – | Shots blocked | 3.9 | – | 3.5 #12 |
| 5.2 #19 | – | Shots insidebox | 8.7 | – | 9.0 #9 |
| 4.8 #9 | – | Shots off target | 5.2 | – | 7.5 #3 |
| 3.0 #18 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.8 | – | 5.5 #5 |
| – #16 | – | Win | 32.5 | – | – #8 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 39 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.79 (home 1.41 · away 1.38)
- Home / draw / away
- 31% · 36% · 33%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 51% · 51%
- Cards / match
- 4.03 (reds 0.1)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Aston Villa · Last 365 days
Rating 6.97 (66th pct) · G+A 11 + 8 (20% of team goals) · 61% of minutes
Team 2.05 ppg with (39) · 1.61 without (18)
Rating 6.83 (48th pct) · G+A 3 + 4 (7% of team goals) · 77% of minutes
Team 1.93 ppg with (44) · 1.85 without (13)
Nottingham Forest · Last 365 days
Rating 7.07 (93th pct) · G+A 20 + 8 (37% of team goals) · 83% of minutes
Team 1.24 ppg with (45) · 1.7 without (10)
Rating 6.98 (69th pct) · G+A 2 + 4 (8% of team goals) · 86% of minutes
Team 1.28 ppg with (46) · 1.56 without (9)
Rating 6.9 (68th pct) · G+A 15 + 5 (27% of team goals) · 68% of minutes
Team 1.28 ppg with (39) · 1.44 without (16)
Absences
Aston Villa
- suspension João Gomes #18 key player midfielder · Red Card Suspension · 4 missed · until 2026-09-20
- suspension Taylor Harwood-Bellis defender · No Eligibility · 2 missed · until 2027-01-28
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 4
Venue
- Stadium
- Villa Park, Birmingham
- Capacity
- 42,640
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 36,714
Teams
- Coaches
- Unai Emery · Oliver Glasner
- Position
- 18 · 16
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
Referee
Andy Madley
Weather
- Conditions
- overcast clouds
- Temperature
- 19.8° (feels 19.9°)
- Wind
- 3.1
- Humidity
- 82%
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2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Manchester City |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 12 | WWWW |
| 3 |  Leeds United |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 8 | WDDW |
| 4 |  Hull City |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | WWDD |
| 5 |  Brighton & Hove Albion |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 7 | WLDW |
| 6 |  Chelsea |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 7 | WWLD |
| 7 |  Brentford |
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 | WDDD |
| 8 |  Liverpool |
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | DDWD |
| 9 |  Everton |
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | WDDD |
| 10 |  Ipswich Town |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 | WLLW |
| 11 |  Nottingham Forest |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | LDDW |
| 12 |  Newcastle United |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 | DWDL |
| 13 |  Manchester United |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 | LWDL |
| 14 |  Sunderland |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | LWDL |
| 15 |  AFC Bournemouth |
4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | LDDD |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 | LLWL |
| 17 |  Tottenham Hotspur |
4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 | LLDD |
| 18 |  Fulham |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 | LLLD |
| 19 |  Aston Villa |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 | LLDL |
| 20 |  Coventry City |
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WWWW |
| 2 | Manchester City |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WWWW |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | WLDW |
| 4 | Leeds United |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | WDDW |
| 5 | Brentford |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | WDDD |
| 6 | Everton |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | WDDD |
| 7 | Hull City |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | WWDD |
| 8 | Chelsea |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | WWLD |
| 9 | Manchester United |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | LWDL |
| 10 | Ipswich Town |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 | WLLW |
| 11 | Sunderland |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LWDL |
| 12 | Newcastle United |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | DWDL |
| 13 | AFC Bournemouth |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | LDDD |
| 14 | Liverpool |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | DDWD |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | LDDW |
| 16 | Tottenham Hotspur |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | LLDD |
| 17 | Fulham |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LLLD |
| 18 | Aston Villa |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | LLDL |
| 19 | Crystal Palace |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LLWL |
| 20 | Coventry City |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 | LLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WWWW |
| 3 | Liverpool |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DDWD |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | LDDW |
| 5 | Hull City |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | WWDD |
| 6 | Leeds United |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | WDDW |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | WLDW |
| 8 | Chelsea |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | WWLD |
| 9 | Crystal Palace |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | LLWL |
| 10 | Newcastle United |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | DWDL |
| 11 | Ipswich Town |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 | WLLW |
| 12 | Brentford |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | WDDD |
| 13 | Everton |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | WDDD |
| 14 | AFC Bournemouth |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 | LDDD |
| 15 | Sunderland |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | LWDL |
| 16 | Fulham |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | LLLD |
| 17 | Manchester United |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | LWDL |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 | LLDD |
| 19 | Aston Villa |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 | LLDL |
| 20 | Coventry City |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | LLLL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- Relegation
Aston Villa
LLLDW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 4 GA 9 · xG 4.33–6.76 · xPts 4.41
- W
A
Club Brugge
3–2
xG 2.23–1.61
UEFA CL - D
A
Hull City
0–0
xG 1.34–0.71
UK PL
- L
H
Arsenal
0–1
xG 0.43–1.25
UK PL
- L
A
Brighton & Hove Albion
0–4
xG 0.33–3.19
UK PL
- L
A
Paris Saint Germain
1–2
UEFA S Cup
WWWLLLDW 4W 1D 3L · 13 pts (1.62 ppg) · GF 13 GA 12 · xG 10.21–9.44 · xPts 10.68
- W
A
Club Brugge
3–2
xG 2.23–1.61
UEFA CL
- D
A
Hull City
0–0
xG 1.34–0.71
UK PL
- L
H
Arsenal
0–1
xG 0.43–1.25
UK PL
- L
A
Brighton & Hove Albion
0–4
xG 0.33–3.19
UK PL
- L
A
Paris Saint Germain
1–2
UEFA S Cup
- W
A
Manchester City
2–1
xG 1.97–1.32
UK PL
- W
A
SC Freiburg
3–0
xG 1.92–0.24
UEFA EL - W
H
Liverpool
4–2
xG 1.99–1.12
UK PL
Nottingham Forest
LDLDD 0W 3D 2L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 7.63–8.92 · xPts 6.44
- D
H
Tottenham Hotspur
0–0
xG 0.74–1.26
UK PL
- D
A
Liverpool
2–2
xG 2.41–1.87
UK PL
- L
H
Leeds United
0–1
xG 0.88–0.75
UK PL
- D
H
AFC Bournemouth
1–1
xG 1.94–1.17
UK PL
- L
A
Manchester United
2–3
xG 1.67–3.87
UK PL
LDLDD 0W 3D 2L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 7.63–8.92 · xPts 6.44
- D
H
Tottenham Hotspur
0–0
xG 0.74–1.26
UK PL
- D
A
Liverpool
2–2
xG 2.41–1.87
UK PL
- L
H
Leeds United
0–1
xG 0.88–0.75
UK PL
- D
H
AFC Bournemouth
1–1
xG 1.94–1.17
UK PL
- L
A
Manchester United
2–3
xG 1.67–3.87
UK PL
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·
Match result
43.4%Aston Villa P 43%26.9%Draw P 28%29.7%Nottingham Forest P 29%
Over / under 2.5
46.7%Over 2.5 P 51%53.3%Under 2.5 P 49%
Both teams to score
51.4%Yes48.6%No
Expected
- Aston Villa goals
- 1.42 (0–3)
- Nottingham Forest goals
- 1.13 (0–3)
- Corners
- 8.55 (5–13)
- Cards
- 4.09 (1–7)
Earlier: day before — 43.4% / 26.9% / 29.7%
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
41.8%Aston Villa24.9%Draw33.2%Nottingham Forest
Over / under 2.5
59.2%Over 2.540.8%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
61.0%Yes39.0%No
Scored
| Market | Observed | Log loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2 | away | 1.214 | 0.755 |
| ou_2_5 | over | 0.762 | 0.569 |
| btts | yes | 0.666 | 0.473 |
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 17 matches since 2016
Goals 33–24 · 3.35 per match · BTTS 71% · over 2.5 65%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 18–12 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 9–5 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%
Recent meetings
- L Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- W Aston Villa 4–0 Nottingham Forest UEFA EL · Semi-finals · leg 2/2
- L Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aston Villa UEFA EL · Semi-finals · leg 1/2
- D Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa UK PL · Regular Season
- W Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- W Aston Villa 2–1 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- L Nottingham Forest 2–1 Aston Villa UK PL · Regular Season
- W Aston Villa 4–2 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- L Nottingham Forest 2–0 Aston Villa UK PL · Regular Season
- W Aston Villa 2–0 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
| Metric | Aston Villa all · 4 | Aston Villa at home · 2 | Nottingham Forest all · 4 | Nottingham Forest away · 2 |
|---|
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Aston Villa · 5 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.10) · stands out: when behind -0.62
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.105
Early press (0-15, level)+0.455
Late push (76+, level)+0.352
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.762
Game state
When level+0.125
When behind-0.623
10 min after conceding-0.484
10 min after scoring+0.382
Situations
At home-0.392
Away+0.163
4+ days rest-0.134
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.353
Evenly matched-0.133
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.175
Conceded late (76+)-0.064
Congested vs rested +0.11 · Ahead vs level -0.22 · Behind vs level -0.74
Nottingham Forest · 4 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.52
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.064
Early press (0-15, level)-0.434
Late push (76+, level)-0.394
Game state
When ahead+0.652
When level-0.094
10 min after conceding-0.523
10 min after scoring+0.742
Situations
At home-0.262
Away+0.372
4+ days rest+0.064
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.372
Evenly matched+0.093
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.004
Conceded when ahead-0.202
Conceded late (76+)-0.354
Ahead vs level +0.75 · Behind vs level -0.62
Aston Villa
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 4 100% | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1.75 | 0.79 | 1.88 |
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 100% | 1.25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.23 |
| Metric | Aston Villa all · 10 | Aston Villa at home · 10 | Nottingham Forest all · 10 | Nottingham Forest away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.30 | 1.80 |
| W / D / L | 4 / 2 / 4 | 6 / 0 / 4 | 3 / 4 / 3 | 5 / 3 / 2 |
| Goals for / match | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals against / match | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | 30% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 60% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 50% | 90% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.41 | 1.65 | 1.57 | 1.45 |
| xG against / match | 1.49 | 1.30 | 1.78 | 2.04 |
| xG difference | -0.07 | 0.35 | -0.21 | -0.59 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.25 | 0.65 | -0.37 | 0.75 |
| xPts / match | 1.40 | 1.57 | 1.34 | 1.11 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.15 | 0.23 | -0.04 | 0.69 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 30% | 70% | 50% | 60% |
| PPG when scoring first | 3.00 | 2.57 | 2.20 | 2.67 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 0% | 25% | 50% |
| Leads held | 80% | 86% | 60% | 83% |
| Minutes leading | 22% | 41% | 23% | 39% |
| Minutes level | 50% | 38% | 60% | 42% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 20% | 17% | 19% |
| First goal (min) | 43 | 37 | 45 | 33 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 29 | 36 | 60 | 47 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 50% | 61% | 67% | 54% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 50% | 64% | 86% | 73% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 47% | 48% | 45% | 42% |
| Shots | 13.0 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 11.1 |
| On target | 4.6 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 4.7 |
| Shot conversion | 12% | 19% | 10% | 20% |
| Shots inside box | 68% | 64% | 68% | 72% |
| Big chances created | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| Corners | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| xG from set plays | 31% | 33% | 36% | 26% |
| Goals from headers | 12% | 17% | 18% | 23% |
| Pressure index | 11.8 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 9.7 |
| Dominant minutes | 45.9 | 47.5 | 46.0 | 41.1 |
| Pass accuracy | 84% | 84% | 80% | 79% |
| Fouls | 10.7 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 11.4 |
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | 1.80 | 2.40 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Aston Villa
0–15'12
16–30'15
31–45'61
46–60'44
61–75'32
76–90'12
Nottingham Forest
0–15'21
16–30'10
31–45'11
46–60'34
61–75'22
76–90'36
Aston Villa
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 10 100% | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.41 | 1.49 |
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 50% | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.58 | 1.25 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 40% | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.83 | 2.11 |
| 4-4-1-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.46 | 3.07 |
| Metric | Aston Villa all · 57 | Aston Villa at home · 27 | Nottingham Forest all · 55 | Nottingham Forest away · 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 57 | 27 | 55 | 28 |
| Points per game | 1.91 | 2.15 | 1.33 | 1.43 |
| W / D / L | 34 / 7 / 16 | 19 / 1 / 7 | 19 / 16 / 20 | 11 / 7 / 10 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.93 | 1.36 | 1.57 |
| Goals against / match | 1.19 | 1.04 | 1.20 | 1.43 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 37% | 31% | 25% |
| Failed to score | 18% | 11% | 33% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 52% | 46% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 59% | 53% | 68% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.46 | 1.64 | 1.52 | 1.39 |
| xG against / match | 1.25 | 1.10 | 1.40 | 1.61 |
| xG difference | 0.21 | 0.54 | 0.12 | -0.21 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.22 | 0.29 | -0.15 | 0.18 |
| xPts / match | 1.51 | 1.71 | 1.47 | 1.29 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.44 | 0.44 | -0.14 | 0.14 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 56% | 70% | 36% | 43% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.53 | 2.68 | 2.60 | 2.67 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.13 | 0.88 | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| Came back from behind | 38% | 30% | 33% | 33% |
| Leads held | 83% | 90% | 76% | 79% |
| Minutes leading | 32% | 40% | 24% | 27% |
| Minutes level | 48% | 43% | 53% | 45% |
| Minutes trailing | 20% | 17% | 23% | 28% |
| First goal (min) | 40 | 40 | 38 | 37 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 46 | 42 | 38 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 56% | 58% | 60% | 59% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 56% | 64% | 54% | 52% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.39 | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| Late goals against | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 52% | 53% | 48% | 45% |
| Shots | 12.7 | 13.5 | 14.2 | 12.6 |
| On target | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Shot conversion | 13% | 14% | 10% | 12% |
| Shots inside box | 65% | 65% | 62% | 65% |
| Big chances created | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Corners | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.6 |
| xG from set plays | 29% | 31% | 31% | 30% |
| Goals from headers | 17% | 15% | 19% | 25% |
| Pressure index | 15.0 | 15.7 | 15.3 | 13.6 |
| Dominant minutes | 52.0 | 55.5 | 52.6 | 47.8 |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 85% | 82% | 81% |
| Fouls | 10.6 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 12.2 |
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.76 | 2.00 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Aston Villa
0–15'99
16–30'128
31–45'2113
46–60'1714
61–75'1411
76–90'2213
Nottingham Forest
0–15'98
16–30'119
31–45'1013
46–60'1512
61–75'107
76–90'2017
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Aston Villa · 57 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.19) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.48
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1957
Early press (0-15, level)+0.2157
Late push (76+, level)+0.3316
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0615
Game state
When ahead+0.2541
When level+0.2357
When behind+0.0126
10 min after conceding-0.0940
10 min after scoring+0.4846
Situations
Against ten men+0.102
At home+0.1627
Away+0.2230
3 days rest or fewer+0.1020
4+ days rest+0.2537
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0733
v mid-tier opponents+0.2213
v bottom-tier opponents+0.262
As favourite+0.4025
Evenly matched+0.0822
As underdog-0.0510
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.0457
Conceded when ahead-0.1741
Conceded late (76+)-0.2652
Congested vs rested -0.15 · Ahead vs level +0.02 · Behind vs level -0.22
Nottingham Forest · 55 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: v mid-tier opponents +0.61
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1755
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0355
Late push (76+, level)-0.0923
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0423
Game state
When ahead+0.1925
When level+0.1855
When behind+0.1530
10 min after conceding-0.0638
10 min after scoring+0.4737
Situations
With ten men+0.102
At home+0.1027
Away+0.2628
3 days rest or fewer+0.1622
4+ days rest+0.1933
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0131
v mid-tier opponents+0.6110
v bottom-tier opponents+0.242
As favourite+0.6015
Evenly matched+0.1520
As underdog-0.1220
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0055
Conceded when ahead+0.0225
Conceded late (76+)-0.2051
Congested vs rested -0.03 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level -0.03
Aston Villa
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 53 93% | 1.83 | 1.6 | 1.23 | 1.45 | 1.22 |
| 4-4-2 | 3 5% | 3.0 | 2.67 | 0.67 | 1.66 | 2.08 |
| 4-2-2-2 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.37 | 0.4 |
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 32 58% | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.0 | 1.51 | 1.27 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 8 14% | 1.25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.52 | 1.22 |
| 4-4-2 | 6 11% | 1.67 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.66 | 1.71 |
| 5-3-2 | 2 4% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.41 | 2.07 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 4% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.91 | 0.84 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home -1.6 pts at 4.8d
2.27Home 43% ▼ -2.1 ptsopened 2.153.46Draw 28% ▲ +1.0 ptsopened 3.573.36Away 29% ▲ +1.1 ptsopened 3.47
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.27 ▼ -2.1 | 3.46 ▲ +1.0 | 3.36 ▲ +1.1 | 10m |
| bet365 | 2.2 ▼ -4.0 | 3.4 · +1.0 | 3.25 ▲ +3.0 | 10m |
| Betfair | 2.25 ▼ -3.6 | 3.4 ▲ +1.8 | 3.3 ▲ +1.9 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 2.25 ▼ -2.0 | 3.5 · -0.2 | 3.13 ▲ +2.2 | 10m |
| Coral | 2.2 ▼ -1.8 | 3.4 · +0.0 | 3.2 ▲ +1.7 | 10m |
| Ladbrokes | 2.2 ▼ -1.8 | 3.4 · +0.0 | 3.2 ▲ +1.7 | 10m |
| Unibet | 2.23 ▼ -1.3 | 3.5 · +0.2 | 3.2 ▲ +1.1 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 2.2 ▼ -1.7 | 3.25 · +0.6 | 3.2 ▲ +1.1 | 10m |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: no -1.3 pts at 5.0h
1.7Yes 55% ▲ +2.7 ptsopened 1.82.05No 45% ▼ -2.7 ptsopened 1.95
Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.7 ▲ +2.7 | 2.05 ▼ -2.7 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.6 ▲ +3.6 | 2.25 ▼ -3.6 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.67 ▲ +1.5 | 2.05 ▼ -1.5 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.67 ▲ +1.3 | 2.1 ▼ -1.3 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 1.73 · +0.0 | 2.05 · +0.0 | 10m |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: under -1.9 pts at 7.0h · late move: under -2.0 pts inside the final hour
1.91Over 51% ▲ +2.8 ptsopened 2.012.0Under 49% ▼ -2.8 ptsopened 1.88
Over Under consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.91 ▲ +2.8 | 2.0 ▼ -2.8 | 10m |
| bet365 | 1.9 ▲ +2.6 | 1.9 ▼ -2.6 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.9 · +0.1 | 1.91 · -0.1 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.82 ▲ +2.0 | 1.85 ▼ -2.0 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.87 ▲ +1.1 | 1.91 ▼ -1.1 | 10m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
2.2Home 43% P 43%3.4Draw 28% P 28%3.25Away 29% P 29%
Double Chance
1.33Aston Villa or Draw 35%1.3Aston Villa or Nottm Forest 36%1.66Draw or Nottm Forest 28%
Draw No Bet
1.571 59%2.252 41%
Both Teams To Score
1.7Yes 55%2.05No 45%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.9Over 50% P 51%1.9Under 50% P 49%
Total Corners
11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%
Number of Cards
3.51.8Over 51% P 56%1.9Under 49% P 44%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 27.5–30% · 766 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 43% | 44% | 43% | -0.3 |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 30% | +2.4 |
| Away | 29% | 29% | 26% | -2.1 |
In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 52%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 51% | 51% | -0.1 |
Andy Madley
- Career
- 313 matches · 16 seasons
- Cards / match
- 3.42 (3.29 yellow · 0.08 red)
- Fouls / match
- 21.8 · 5.7 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.2
- Cards to home side
- 45%
Style in Premier League (5-year window · 95 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.09 | 4.26 | -0.24 | 31 |
| Fouls / match | 22.7 | 21.6 | +0.83 | |
| Fouls per card | 6.2 | 5.1 | +1.71 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.17 | 0.25 | -1.14 | 12 |
| Time added | 8.3 | 8.4 | +0.09 | 38 |
- First card
- 36' on average
- Card timing
- 13% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 44% (league 46%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.21
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 58' | 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 33' | 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | 6 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 16' | 2 |
| 2026-07-14 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 17' | 2 |
| 2026-05-24 · Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 82' | 13 |
| 2026-05-12 | 8 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 13' | 11 |
| 2026-05-09 | 6 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 41' | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 19' | 11 |
| 2026-04-22 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 37' | 15 |
| 2026-04-22 | – | – | 22 | – | – | 6 |