Rating 7.08 (87th pct) · G+A 10 + 4 (22% of team goals) · 80% of minutes
Team 1.31 ppg with (32) · 1.62 without (8)
Premier League · Matchweek 4
Momentum
– BOUBrentford –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
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Season context
| AFC Bournemouth | at home | Stat | league | away | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.0 #10 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 46.2 #12 |
| 14.8 #7 | – | Shots total | 13.5 | – | 17.0 #3 |
| 6.0 #1 | – | Shots on target | 4.4 | – | 4.2 #10 |
| 4.5 #9 | – | Corners | 4.5 | – | 4.5 #9 |
| 12.2 #9 | – | Fouls | 11.7 | – | 15.5 #2 |
| 1.2 #15 | – | Offsides | 1.9 | – | 1.0 #16 |
| 15.8 #8 | – | Tackles | 15.4 | – | 16.8 #5 |
| 98.5 #9 | – | Attacks | 96.3 | – | 101.5 #8 |
| 34.5 #19 | – | Dangerous attacks | 47.7 | – | 54.8 #7 |
| 407.2 #10 | – | Passes | 441.4 | – | 382.8 #15 |
| 3.2 #1 | – | Yellowcards | 1.9 | – | 2.2 #7 |
| 0.8 #12 | – | Assists | 1.1 | – | 0.8 #12 |
| – #1 | – | Btts | 52.5 | – | – #3 |
| – #15 | – | Cleansheet | 28.8 | – | – #8 |
| – #1 | – | Draw | 35.0 | – | – #1 |
| 1.6 #10 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 1.9 #4 |
| -0.1 #11 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.1 | – | -0.2 #12 |
| – #13 | – | Failed to score | 28.8 | – | – #13 |
| 1.5 #10 | 1.5 | Goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 #5 |
| 1.8 #6 | 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 #13 |
| 0.5 #1 | – | Injury time goals | 0.3 | – | – |
| 12.8 #1 | – | Interceptions | 8.4 | – | 11.5 #2 |
| – #9 | – | Lost | 32.5 | – | – #14 |
| – | – | Penalties scored | 0.2 | – | 0.0 #7 |
| 6.8 #12 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.9 #9 |
| 4.0 #9 | – | Shots blocked | 3.9 | – | 5.8 #4 |
| 9.0 #9 | – | Shots insidebox | 8.7 | – | 12.5 #2 |
| 4.8 #9 | – | Shots off target | 5.2 | – | 7.0 #4 |
| 5.8 #4 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.8 | – | 4.5 #9 |
| – #16 | – | Win | 32.5 | – | – #8 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 39 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.79 (home 1.41 · away 1.38)
- Home / draw / away
- 31% · 36% · 33%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 51% · 51%
- Cards / match
- 4.03 (reds 0.1)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
AFC Bournemouth · Last 365 days
Rating 7.04 (83th pct) · G+A 4 + 2 (10% of team goals) · 87% of minutes
Rating 6.88 (61th pct) · G+A 1 + 7 (13% of team goals) · 97% of minutes
Brentford · Last 365 days
Rating 7.05 (90th pct) · G+A 22 + 1 (37% of team goals) · 92% of minutes
Rating 6.89 (48th pct) · G+A 10 + 3 (21% of team goals) · 78% of minutes
Team 1.47 ppg with (34) · 1.71 without (7)
Rating 6.92 (73th pct) · G+A 1 + 3 (6% of team goals) · 81% of minutes
Team 1.45 ppg with (33) · 1.75 without (8)
Absences
AFC Bournemouth
- injury Junior Kroupi #5 key player attacker · Foot Injury · 8 missed
Brentford
- injury Benjamin Fredrick defender · Knee Injury · 38 missed
- injury Sepp van den Berg #8 key player defender · Groin Injury · 7 missed · until 2026-10-06
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 4
Venue
- Stadium
- Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
- Capacity
- 11,700
- Surface
- grass
Teams
- Coaches
- Marco Rose · Keith Andrews
- Position
- 15 · 5
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Jarred Gillett
Weather
- Conditions
- broken clouds
- Temperature
- 20.1° (feels 20.1°)
- Wind
- 7.7
- Humidity
- 76%
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2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Manchester City |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 12 | WWWW |
| 3 |  Leeds United |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 8 | WDDW |
| 4 |  Hull City |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | WWDD |
| 5 |  Brighton & Hove Albion |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 7 | WLDW |
| 6 |  Chelsea |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 7 | WWLD |
| 7 |  Brentford |
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 | WDDD |
| 8 |  Liverpool |
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | DDWD |
| 9 |  Everton |
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | WDDD |
| 10 |  Ipswich Town |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 | WLLW |
| 11 |  Nottingham Forest |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | LDDW |
| 12 |  Newcastle United |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 | DWDL |
| 13 |  Manchester United |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 | LWDL |
| 14 |  Sunderland |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | LWDL |
| 15 |  AFC Bournemouth |
4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | LDDD |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 | LLWL |
| 17 |  Tottenham Hotspur |
4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 | LLDD |
| 18 |  Fulham |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 | LLLD |
| 19 |  Aston Villa |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 | LLDL |
| 20 |  Coventry City |
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WWWW |
| 2 | Manchester City |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WWWW |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | WLDW |
| 4 | Leeds United |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | WDDW |
| 5 | Brentford |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | WDDD |
| 6 | Everton |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | WDDD |
| 7 | Hull City |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | WWDD |
| 8 | Chelsea |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | WWLD |
| 9 | Manchester United |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | LWDL |
| 10 | Ipswich Town |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 | WLLW |
| 11 | Sunderland |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LWDL |
| 12 | Newcastle United |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | DWDL |
| 13 | AFC Bournemouth |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | LDDD |
| 14 | Liverpool |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | DDWD |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | LDDW |
| 16 | Tottenham Hotspur |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | LLDD |
| 17 | Fulham |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LLLD |
| 18 | Aston Villa |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | LLDL |
| 19 | Crystal Palace |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LLWL |
| 20 | Coventry City |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 | LLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WWWW |
| 3 | Liverpool |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DDWD |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | LDDW |
| 5 | Hull City |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | WWDD |
| 6 | Leeds United |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | WDDW |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | WLDW |
| 8 | Chelsea |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | WWLD |
| 9 | Crystal Palace |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | LLWL |
| 10 | Newcastle United |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | DWDL |
| 11 | Ipswich Town |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 | WLLW |
| 12 | Brentford |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | WDDD |
| 13 | Everton |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | WDDD |
| 14 | AFC Bournemouth |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 | LDDD |
| 15 | Sunderland |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | LWDL |
| 16 | Fulham |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | LLLD |
| 17 | Manchester United |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | LWDL |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 | LLDD |
| 19 | Aston Villa |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 | LLDL |
| 20 | Coventry City |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | LLLL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- Relegation
AFC Bournemouth
DDLDD 0W 4D 1L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 7.79–7.65 · xPts 7.0
- D
A
Newcastle United
2–2
xG 1.36–0.76
UK PL
- D
H
Everton
1–1
xG 2.66–1.14
UK PL
- L
A
Manchester City
1–2
xG 0.57–2.13
UK PL
- D
A
Nottingham Forest
1–1
xG 1.17–1.94
UK PL
- D
H
Manchester City
1–1
xG 2.03–1.69
UK PL
DDLDD 0W 4D 1L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 7.79–7.65 · xPts 7.0
- D
A
Newcastle United
2–2
xG 1.36–0.76
UK PL
- D
H
Everton
1–1
xG 2.66–1.14
UK PL
- L
A
Manchester City
1–2
xG 0.57–2.13
UK PL
- D
A
Nottingham Forest
1–1
xG 1.17–1.94
UK PL
- D
H
Manchester City
1–1
xG 2.03–1.69
UK PL
Brentford
DDWDD 1W 4D 0L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 10.54–8.63 · xPts 7.58
- D
H
Sunderland
1–1
xG 1.26–2.4
UK PL
- D
A
Leeds United
1–1
xG 1.84–1.12
UK PL
- W
H
Tottenham Hotspur
3–0
xG 4.16–0.52
UK PL
- D
A
Liverpool
1–1
xG 1.38–2.81
UK PL
- D
H
Crystal Palace
2–2
xG 1.9–1.79
UK PL
DDWDD 1W 4D 0L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 10.54–8.63 · xPts 7.58
- D
H
Sunderland
1–1
xG 1.26–2.4
UK PL
- D
A
Leeds United
1–1
xG 1.84–1.12
UK PL
- W
H
Tottenham Hotspur
3–0
xG 4.16–0.52
UK PL
- D
A
Liverpool
1–1
xG 1.38–2.81
UK PL
- D
H
Crystal Palace
2–2
xG 1.9–1.79
UK PL
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·
Match result
43.7%AFC Bournemouth P 41%24.0%Draw P 27%32.3%Brentford P 32%
Over / under 2.5
60.2%Over 2.5 P 56%39.8%Under 2.5 P 44%
Both teams to score
62.1%Yes37.9%No
Expected
- AFC Bournemouth goals
- 1.69 (0–3)
- Brentford goals
- 1.43 (0–3)
- Corners
- 11.05 (7–16)
- Cards
- 4.86 (2–8)
Earlier: day before — 43.7% / 24.0% / 32.3%
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
46.8%AFC Bournemouth27.0%Draw26.2%Brentford
Over / under 2.5
49.1%Over 2.550.9%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
51.9%Yes48.1%No
Scored
| Market | Observed | Log loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2 | draw | 1.427 | 0.873 |
| ou_2_5 | over | 0.507 | 0.317 |
| btts | yes | 0.476 | 0.287 |
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 15 matches since 2014
Goals 14–26 · 2.67 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 10–20 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 6–11 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%
Recent meetings
- D AFC Bournemouth 2–2 Brentford UK PL · Regular Season
- D AFC Bournemouth 0–0 Brentford UK PL · Regular Season
- L Brentford 4–1 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
- L AFC Bournemouth 1–2 Brentford UK PL · Regular Season
- L Brentford 3–2 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
- L AFC Bournemouth 1–2 Brentford UK PL · Regular Season
- D Brentford 2–2 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
- L Brentford 2–0 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
- D AFC Bournemouth 0–0 Brentford UK PL · Regular Season
- L Brentford 3–1 AFC Bournemouth UK CHAMP · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals · leg 2/2
| Metric | AFC Bournemouth all · 4 | AFC Bournemouth at home · 2 | Brentford all · 4 | Brentford away · 2 |
|---|
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
AFC Bournemouth · 5 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.00) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.23
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.005
Early press (0-15, level)+0.215
Late push (76+, level)-0.044
Game state
When ahead+0.025
When level+0.015
When behind-0.682
10 min after conceding-0.235
10 min after scoring+0.225
Situations
At home+0.042
Away-0.033
4+ days rest-0.005
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.143
As favourite+0.112
As underdog-0.172
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead-0.145
Conceded late (76+)-0.205
Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level -0.69
Brentford · 4 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.49
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.034
Early press (0-15, level)+0.454
Late push (76+, level)-0.493
Game state
When ahead+0.104
When level-0.024
10 min after conceding-0.303
10 min after scoring+0.274
Situations
At home-0.112
Away+0.142
4+ days rest+0.034
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents-0.112
As favourite-0.112
Evenly matched+0.142
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.174
Conceded when ahead-0.384
Conceded late (76+)+0.073
Ahead vs level +0.12 · Behind vs level +1.12
AFC Bournemouth
Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 13 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 4 100% | 0.75 | 1.5 | 1.75 | 1.67 | 1.14 |
Brentford
Current: unbeaten 6 · winless 3 · scoring 6 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 4 100% | 1.5 | 1.75 | 1.0 | 1.94 | 1.53 |
| Metric | AFC Bournemouth all · 10 | AFC Bournemouth at home · 10 | Brentford all · 10 | Brentford away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 6 / 1 | 2 / 8 / 0 | 2 / 6 / 2 | 2 / 6 / 2 |
| Goals for / match | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals against / match | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.58 | 2.06 | 1.64 | 1.77 |
| xG against / match | 1.31 | 1.14 | 1.71 | 2.14 |
| xG difference | 0.26 | 0.93 | -0.07 | -0.36 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.02 | -0.46 | -0.24 | -0.57 |
| xPts / match | 1.54 | 1.98 | 1.35 | 1.21 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.04 | -0.58 | -0.15 | -0.01 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 80% | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.63 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Came back from behind | 67% | 100% | 60% | 60% |
| Leads held | 33% | 33% | 40% | 50% |
| Minutes leading | 50% | 28% | 24% | 12% |
| Minutes level | 47% | 61% | 55% | 69% |
| Minutes trailing | 3% | 11% | 21% | 19% |
| First goal (min) | 34 | 44 | 44 | 48 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 62 | 54 | 48 | 44 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 38% | 56% | 57% | 50% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 75% | 67% | 67% | 57% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Late goals against | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | 52% | 48% | 51% |
| Shots | 14.0 | 16.2 | 13.6 | 11.7 |
| On target | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| Shot conversion | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Shots inside box | 60% | 60% | 74% | 77% |
| Big chances created | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| xG from set plays | 33% | 37% | 50% | 58% |
| Goals from headers | 12% | 12% | 29% | 33% |
| Pressure index | 12.9 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 13.2 |
| Dominant minutes | 51.7 | 56.9 | 52.0 | 50.9 |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | 80% | 79% | 78% |
| Fouls | 12.1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 11.2 |
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.90 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
AFC Bournemouth
0–15'30
16–30'20
31–45'53
46–60'42
61–75'01
76–90'26
Brentford
0–15'22
16–30'00
31–45'42
46–60'44
61–75'11
76–90'33
AFC Bournemouth
Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 13 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 9 90% | 1.33 | 1.56 | 1.22 | 1.66 | 1.34 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.88 | 1.07 |
Brentford
Current: unbeaten 6 · winless 3 · scoring 6 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 9 90% | 1.33 | 1.56 | 1.0 | 1.78 | 1.53 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.35 | 3.3 |
| Metric | AFC Bournemouth all · 40 | AFC Bournemouth at home · 19 | Brentford all · 41 | Brentford away · 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 40 | 19 | 41 | 22 |
| Points per game | 1.37 | 1.42 | 1.51 | 1.36 |
| W / D / L | 11 / 22 / 7 | 5 / 12 / 2 | 16 / 14 / 11 | 8 / 6 / 8 |
| Goals for / match | 1.58 | 1.53 | 1.51 | 1.27 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.16 | 1.24 | 1.41 |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 26% | 29% | 32% |
| Failed to score | 18% | 21% | 29% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 72% | 68% | 51% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 47% | 49% | 41% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.68 | 1.76 | 1.80 | 1.62 |
| xG against / match | 1.64 | 1.02 | 1.64 | 1.77 |
| xG difference | 0.03 | 0.74 | 0.16 | -0.15 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.10 | -0.23 | -0.29 | -0.34 |
| xPts / match | 1.45 | 1.85 | 1.46 | 1.28 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.08 | -0.43 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 42% | 54% | 50% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.65 | 1.63 | 2.18 | 2.09 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.13 | 1.38 | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| Came back from behind | 65% | 78% | 39% | 33% |
| Leads held | 42% | 46% | 67% | 67% |
| Minutes leading | 28% | 23% | 29% | 24% |
| Minutes level | 55% | 63% | 48% | 51% |
| Minutes trailing | 16% | 14% | 23% | 26% |
| First goal (min) | 38 | 45 | 37 | 40 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 45 | 50 | 42 | 40 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 52% | 59% | 55% | 50% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 59% | 64% | 53% | 55% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.40 | 0.53 | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| Late goals against | 0.48 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | 53% | 50% | 50% |
| Shots | 14.0 | 15.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 |
| On target | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Shot conversion | 11% | 10% | 13% | 12% |
| Shots inside box | 60% | 60% | 75% | 77% |
| Big chances created | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| Corners | 5.3 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.4 |
| xG from set plays | 31% | 35% | 50% | 50% |
| Goals from headers | 11% | 10% | 21% | 21% |
| Pressure index | 12.8 | 16.1 | 14.4 | 13.6 |
| Dominant minutes | 48.1 | 56.6 | 49.4 | 47.7 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 80% | 79% | 79% |
| Fouls | 12.2 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| Cards | 2.48 | 2.26 | 1.78 | 2.05 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
AFC Bournemouth
0–15'85
16–30'97
31–45'1312
46–60'78
61–75'109
76–90'1518
Brentford
0–15'85
16–30'89
31–45'1210
46–60'98
61–75'85
76–90'1714
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
AFC Bournemouth · 40 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.08) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) +0.44
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.0840
Early press (0-15, level)+0.1140
Late push (76+, level)-0.1625
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.4412
Game state
When ahead-0.0526
When level+0.0940
When behind+0.3020
10 min after conceding-0.1231
10 min after scoring+0.4133
Situations
With ten men-0.382
Against ten men-0.432
At home+0.1919
Away-0.0221
3 days rest or fewer+0.035
4+ days rest+0.0935
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0325
v mid-tier opponents+0.047
v bottom-tier opponents+0.562
As favourite+0.4112
Evenly matched-0.0215
As underdog-0.1113
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0540
Conceded when ahead+0.2026
Conceded late (76+)+0.0539
Congested vs rested -0.06 · Ahead vs level -0.14 · Behind vs level +0.21
Brentford · 41 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.15) · stands out: 3 days rest or fewer +0.56
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1541
Early press (0-15, level)+0.2141
Late push (76+, level)-0.0319
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.0413
Game state
When ahead+0.1824
When level+0.1741
When behind+0.0818
10 min after conceding-0.2829
10 min after scoring+0.3429
Situations
At home+0.1119
Away+0.1822
3 days rest or fewer+0.565
4+ days rest+0.1036
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0423
v mid-tier opponents+0.169
v bottom-tier opponents+0.332
As favourite+0.4616
Evenly matched+0.0612
As underdog-0.1313
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0841
Conceded when ahead+0.0124
Conceded late (76+)+0.0439
Congested vs rested +0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level -0.08
AFC Bournemouth
Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 13 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 39 98% | 1.33 | 1.56 | 1.51 | 1.7 | 1.66 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.88 | 1.07 |
Brentford
Current: unbeaten 6 · winless 3 · scoring 6 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 33 80% | 1.7 | 1.73 | 1.21 | 2.03 | 1.67 |
| 5-3-2 | 4 10% | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1.5 | 0.51 | 1.2 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 5% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.13 | 1.19 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 2% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.19 | 1.63 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.35 | 3.3 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home +1.8 pts at 50m · late move: away -1.9 pts inside the final hour
2.39Home 41% ▲ +2.3 ptsopened 2.523.59Draw 27% · +0.9 ptsopened 3.693.02Away 32% ▼ -3.1 ptsopened 2.74
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.39 ▲ +2.3 | 3.59 · +0.9 | 3.02 ▼ -3.1 | 10m |
| bet365 | 2.35 ▲ +4.0 | 3.6 · -0.5 | 3.0 ▼ -3.5 | 10m |
| Betfair | 2.38 ▲ +1.6 | 3.5 · +0.3 | 2.9 ▼ -2.0 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 2.3 ▲ +3.6 | 3.75 ▼ -1.1 | 2.88 ▼ -2.6 | 10m |
| Coral | 2.37 ▲ +2.9 | 3.6 ▼ -1.7 | 2.75 ▼ -1.2 | 10m |
| Ladbrokes | 2.37 ▲ +2.9 | 3.6 ▼ -1.7 | 2.75 ▼ -1.2 | 10m |
| Unibet | 2.43 · +0.8 | 3.55 · +0.0 | 2.7 · -0.9 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 2.38 ▲ +2.0 | 3.4 · +0.1 | 2.8 ▼ -2.1 | 10m |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: no -1.7 pts at 3.8d
1.5Yes 62% ▲ +1.7 ptsopened 1.532.5No 38% ▼ -1.7 ptsopened 2.37
Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.5 ▲ +1.7 | 2.5 ▼ -1.7 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.4 ▲ +3.7 | 2.8 ▼ -3.7 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.5 · -0.2 | 2.38 · +0.2 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.49 · +0.7 | 2.38 · -0.7 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 1.5 ▲ +1.9 | 2.5 ▼ -1.9 | 10m |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: under +1.4 pts at 1.2h · late move: under +1.9 pts inside the final hour
1.72Over 56% ▼ -1.8 ptsopened 1.662.23Under 44% ▲ +1.8 ptsopened 2.32
Over Under consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.72 ▼ -1.8 | 2.23 ▲ +1.8 | 10m |
| bet365 | 1.61 ▲ +1.8 | 2.3 ▼ -1.8 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.65 · -0.2 | 2.25 · +0.2 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.63 · -0.4 | 2.1 · +0.4 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.58 ▲ +1.0 | 2.17 ▼ -1.0 | 10m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
2.35Home 41% P 41%3.6Draw 27% P 27%3.0Away 32% P 32%
Double Chance
1.4Bournemouth or Draw 33%1.28Bournemouth or Brentford 36%1.53Draw or Brentford 30%
Draw No Bet
1.721 54%2.02 46%
Both Teams To Score
1.5Yes 62%2.5No 38%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.61Over 59% P 56%2.3Under 41% P 44%
Total Corners
15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 34%3.512 - 14 25%6.5Over 14 14%
Number of Cards
3.51.66Over 56% P 57%2.1Under 44% P 43%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 30–32.5% · 701 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 41% | 41% | 41% | -0.1 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 26% | -1.9 |
| Away | 32% | 31% | 33% | +2.1 |
In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 52%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 56% | -0.2 |
Jarred Gillett
- Career
- 179 matches · 9 seasons
- Cards / match
- 3.73 (3.64 yellow · 0.07 red)
- Fouls / match
- 21.1 · 5.6 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.24
- Cards to home side
- 49%
Style in Premier League (5-year window · 84 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.11 | 4.26 | -0.21 | 38 |
| Fouls / match | 20.1 | 21.6 | -0.58 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.2 | 5.1 | -0.24 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.25 | 0.25 | -0.15 | 54 |
| Time added | 9.0 | 8.4 | +0.69 | 85 |
- First card
- 32' on average
- Card timing
- 16% in first 30' · 29% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 51% (league 46%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.22
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 4 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 29' | 9 |
| 2026-08-23 · AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 45' | 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 90' | 11 |
| 2026-05-17 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 59' | 10 |
| 2026-05-11 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 41' | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 23' | 7 |
| 2026-04-26 | 7 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 60' | 12 |
| 2026-04-19 | 6 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 52' | 9 |
| 2026-04-10 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9' | 5 |
| 2026-03-21 · Brentford | 2 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 38' | 13 |