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Premier League · Matchweek 3

Momentum

NFOTOT
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
3

Venue

Stadium
The City Ground, Nottingham
Capacity
30,445
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,686

Teams

Coaches
Oliver Glasner · Roberto De Zerbi
Position
15 · 19
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Craig Pawson

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
20.1° (feels 19.6°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
56%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Arsenal 4400 817 12 WWWW
2 Manchester City 4400 826 12 WWWW
3 Brentford 5230 1046 9 WDDDW
4 Leeds United 4220 734 8 WDDW
5 Hull City 4220 523 8 WWDD
6 Brighton & Hove Albion 4211 1358 7 WLDW
7 Chelsea 5212 1012-2 7 WWLDL
8 Liverpool 4130 642 6 DDWD
9 Everton 4130 532 6 WDDD
10 Ipswich Town 4202 710-3 6 WLLW
11 Nottingham Forest 4121 440 5 LDDW
12 Newcastle United 4121 78-1 5 DWDL
13 Manchester United 4112 770 4 LWDL
14 Sunderland 4112 35-2 4 LWDL
15 AFC Bournemouth 4031 67-1 3 LDDD
16 Crystal Palace 4103 611-5 3 LLWL
17 Tottenham Hotspur 4022 05-5 2 LLDD
18 Fulham 4013 47-3 1 LLLD
19 Aston Villa 4013 17-6 1 LLDL
20 Coventry City 4004 010-10 0 LLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • Relegation

Nottingham Forest

DLDLD 0W 3D 2L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 8.4–8.96 · xPts 7.01

  • D A Liverpool 2–2 xG 2.41–1.87 UK PL
  • L H Leeds United 0–1 xG 0.88–0.75 UK PL
  • D H AFC Bournemouth 1–1 xG 1.94–1.17 UK PL
  • L A Manchester United 2–3 xG 1.67–3.87 UK PL
  • D H Newcastle United 1–1 xG 1.51–1.3 UK PL

Tottenham Hotspur

DLWLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 3 GA 8 · xG 6.21–8.01 · xPts 6.92

  • L H Newcastle United 0–2 xG 1.28–0.94 UK PL
  • L A Brentford 0–3 xG 0.52–4.16 UK PL
  • W H Everton 1–0 xG 1.24–0.51 UK PL
  • L A Chelsea 1–2 xG 1.36–0.9 UK PL
  • D H Leeds United 1–1 xG 1.81–1.5 UK PL

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 9 matches since 2022

Nottingham Forest 41 draws4 Tottenham Hotspur

Goals 11–11 · 2.44 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 56%

Last 10 · 9 matches

Nottingham Forest 41 draws4 Tottenham Hotspur

Goals 11–11 · 2.44 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 56%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest 41 draws0 Tottenham Hotspur

Goals 9–1 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D Nottingham Forest 0–0 Tottenham Hotspur UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Tottenham Hotspur 0–3 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Nottingham Forest 3–0 Tottenham Hotspur UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Tottenham Hotspur 1–2 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Nottingham Forest 1–0 Tottenham Hotspur UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Tottenham Hotspur 3–1 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Nottingham Forest 0–2 Tottenham Hotspur UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Tottenham Hotspur 3–1 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Nottingham Forest 0–2 Tottenham Hotspur UK PL · Regular Season
MetricNottingham Forest all · 4Nottingham Forest at home · 2Tottenham Hotspur all · 4Tottenham Hotspur away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Nottingham Forest · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.52

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.064
Early press (0-15, level)-0.434
Late push (76+, level)-0.394

Game state

When ahead+0.652
When level-0.104
10 min after conceding-0.523
10 min after scoring+0.742

Situations

At home-0.262
Away+0.372
4+ days rest+0.064

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.372
Evenly matched+0.093

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.004
Conceded when ahead-0.202
Conceded late (76+)-0.354

Ahead vs level +0.75 · Behind vs level -0.62

Tottenham Hotspur · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) +0.51

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.034
Early press (0-15, level)+0.514
Late push (76+, level)-0.242

Game state

When level+0.144
When behind-0.402
10 min after conceding-0.492

Situations

At home-0.092
Away+0.182
4+ days rest+0.034

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.223
Evenly matched-0.012

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.034
Conceded late (76+)-0.043

Behind vs level -0.54

Nottingham Forest

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-14 100%1.251.01.01.61.23

Tottenham Hotspur

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 4 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%0.50.01.250.941.79

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away +1.7 pts at 3.0h

2.52Home 39% · +1.0 ptsopened 2.573.53Draw 28% · -0.6 ptsopened 3.442.88Away 34% · -0.4 ptsopened 2.83
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.52 · +1.03.53 · -0.62.88 · -0.410m
bet3652.7 ▼ -2.63.3 · +0.72.62 ▲ +1.910m
Betfair2.4 ▲ +2.03.4 · -0.52.9 ▼ -1.410m
BetVictor2.45 · +0.63.5 ▼ -1.22.75 · +0.610m
Coral2.5 · -1.03.2 · -0.22.6 ▲ +1.110m
Ladbrokes2.5 · -1.03.2 · -0.22.6 ▲ +1.110m
Unibet2.4 ▲ +2.03.4 · -0.62.9 ▼ -1.410m
WilliamHill2.45 ▲ +1.13.3 · -0.22.8 · -0.910m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.7Home 35% P 39%3.3Draw 29% P 28%2.62Away 36% P 34%

Double Chance

1.4Nottm Forest or Draw 33%1.3Nottm Forest or Tottenham 36%1.53Draw or Tottenham 31%

Draw No Bet

1.721 54%2.02 46%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58%2.2No 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 54%2.0Under 47% P 46%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 51%1.83Under 50% P 49%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 32.5–35% · 572 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home39%39%39%+0.4
Draw28%28%28%+0.1
Away34%34%33%-0.5

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 46%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,943 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.554%54%55%+0.8

Craig Pawson

Career
441 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
3.82 (3.68 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
20.5 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Premier League (5-year window · 104 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.164.26-0.1242
Fouls / match22.521.6+0.70
Fouls per card5.65.1+0.46 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.280.25+0.2062
Time added8.88.4+0.5173
First card
41' on average
Card timing
9% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.37

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-30 40 191 33'10
2026-05-24 · Nottingham Forest 20 180 33'15
2026-05-09 60 340 67'9
2026-05-02 40 201 59'11
2026-04-25 10 180 90'9
2026-04-21 20 210 45'5
2026-04-05 50 311 40'15
2026-03-03 30 190 60'9
2026-02-27 60 310 45'11
2026-02-22 20 192 41'16