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Premier League · Matchweek 3

Momentum

NEWBOU
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
3

Venue

Stadium
St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
Capacity
52,409
Surface
grass
Attendance
52,643

Teams

Coaches
Matthias Jaissle · Marco Rose
Position
7 · 14
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Robert Jones

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
19.0° (feels 18.3°)
Wind
6.7
Humidity
52%

Where to watch · 269

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Arsenal 4400 817 12 WWWW
2 Manchester City 4400 826 12 WWWW
3 Leeds United 4220 734 8 WDDW
4 Hull City 4220 523 8 WWDD
5 Brighton & Hove Albion 4211 1358 7 WLDW
6 Chelsea 4211 1091 7 WWLD
7 Brentford 4130 743 6 WDDD
8 Liverpool 4130 642 6 DDWD
9 Everton 4130 532 6 WDDD
10 Ipswich Town 4202 710-3 6 WLLW
11 Nottingham Forest 4121 440 5 LDDW
12 Newcastle United 4121 78-1 5 DWDL
13 Manchester United 4112 770 4 LWDL
14 Sunderland 4112 35-2 4 LWDL
15 AFC Bournemouth 4031 67-1 3 LDDD
16 Crystal Palace 4103 611-5 3 LLWL
17 Tottenham Hotspur 4022 05-5 2 LLDD
18 Fulham 4013 47-3 1 LLLD
19 Aston Villa 4013 17-6 1 LLDL
20 Coventry City 4004 010-10 0 LLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • Relegation

Newcastle United

DWLDW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 6 · xG 5.48–9.58 · xPts 4.64

  • W A Tottenham Hotspur 2–0 xG 0.94–1.28 UK PL
  • D H Liverpool 2–2 xG 1.27–3.64 UK PL
  • L A Fulham 0–2 xG 0.39–1.73 UK PL
  • W H West Ham United 3–1 xG 1.59–1.42 UK PL
  • D A Nottingham Forest 1–1 xG 1.3–1.51 UK PL

AFC Bournemouth

WDDLD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 5 GA 5 · xG 7.32–8.42 · xPts 6.1

  • D H Everton 1–1 xG 2.66–1.14 UK PL
  • L A Manchester City 1–2 xG 0.57–2.13 UK PL
  • D A Nottingham Forest 1–1 xG 1.17–1.94 UK PL
  • D H Manchester City 1–1 xG 2.03–1.69 UK PL
  • W A Fulham 1–0 xG 0.89–1.52 UK PL

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 18 matches since 2015

Newcastle United 49 draws5 AFC Bournemouth

Goals 26–29 · 3.06 per match · BTTS 78% · over 2.5 61%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Newcastle United 07 draws3 AFC Bournemouth

Goals 12–18 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Newcastle United 03 draws2 AFC Bournemouth

Goals 7–11 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • D Newcastle United 2–2 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Newcastle United 1–2 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Newcastle United 3–3 AFC Bournemouth pens None–None UK FA Cup · Round 3
  • D AFC Bournemouth 0–0 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Newcastle United 1–4 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
  • D AFC Bournemouth 1–1 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Newcastle United 2–2 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
  • L AFC Bournemouth 2–0 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
  • D AFC Bournemouth 1–1 Newcastle United UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Newcastle United 1–1 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
MetricNewcastle United all · 4Newcastle United at home · 2AFC Bournemouth all · 4AFC Bournemouth away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Newcastle United · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.19) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.28

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.194
Early press (0-15, level)+0.074
Late push (76+, level)-0.142

Game state

When ahead-0.342
When level-0.014
When behind-0.222
10 min after conceding-0.283
10 min after scoring-0.063

Situations

At home-0.372
Away+0.062
4+ days rest-0.194

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.372
Evenly matched+0.062

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.442
Conceded late (76+)-0.133

Ahead vs level -0.33 · Behind vs level -0.21

AFC Bournemouth · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.00) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.23

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.005
Early press (0-15, level)+0.215
Late push (76+, level)-0.044

Game state

When ahead+0.025
When level+0.015
When behind-0.682
10 min after conceding-0.235
10 min after scoring+0.225

Situations

At home+0.042
Away-0.033
4+ days rest-0.005

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.143
As favourite+0.112
As underdog-0.172

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead-0.145
Conceded late (76+)-0.205

Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level -0.69

Newcastle United

Current: winless 2 · scoring 4 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%1.251.752.00.932.06

AFC Bournemouth

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 13 · conceding 7

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%0.751.51.751.671.14

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home +2.2 pts at 3.6d

2.1Home 46% ▲ +3.4 ptsopened 2.253.82Draw 25% · +0.2 ptsopened 3.823.45Away 28% ▼ -3.5 ptsopened 3.05
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.1 ▲ +3.43.82 · +0.23.45 ▼ -3.510m
bet3652.1 ▲ +1.83.5 · +0.53.3 ▼ -2.310m
Betfair2.1 ▲ +2.93.6 ▲ +1.53.4 ▼ -4.410m
BetVictor2.05 ▲ +3.23.8 · -0.13.3 ▼ -3.210m
Coral2.05 ▲ +4.03.5 · +0.03.2 ▼ -4.110m
Ladbrokes2.05 ▲ +4.03.5 · +0.03.2 ▼ -4.110m
Unibet2.1 ▲ +2.23.65 · +0.13.25 ▼ -2.210m
WilliamHill2.05 ▲ +3.13.5 · +0.83.3 ▼ -3.910m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.1Home 45% P 46%3.5Draw 27% P 25%3.3Away 28% P 28%

Double Chance

1.33Newcastle or Draw 35%1.28Newcastle or Bournemouth 37%1.7Draw or Bournemouth 28%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.53Yes 61%2.37No 39%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 61%2.2Under 43% P 39%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 33%3.412 - 14 25%6.0Over 14 14%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46% P 48%1.72Under 54% P 52%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 27.5–30% · 305 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home46%46%50%+4.6
Draw25%26%23%-2.4
Away28%28%26%-2.2

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 55%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.561%61%63%+1.5

Robert Jones

Career
222 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
3.84 (3.75 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
23.9 · 5.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.27
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Premier League (5-year window · 95 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.514.26+0.5581
Fouls / match23.021.6+1.00
Fouls per card5.35.1-0.05 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.30.25+0.5269
Time added8.78.4+0.4373
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 30% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.23

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-28 30 230 7'7
2026-08-22 30 290 18'5
2026-05-24 · Newcastle United 40 190 64'13
2026-05-03 · AFC Bournemouth 20 211 6'8
2026-04-25 40 181 14'8
2026-04-12 60 290 28'16
2026-04-06 50 180 23'4
2026-02-10 80 222 8'9
2026-02-01 60 270 11'13
2026-01-17 60 230 17'6